Ontario Election

[Fishbone Jones]

I'm in the riding for Windsor.


The NDP guy is on city council (I think they should be required to abdicate their position if they want to run) was a CBC reporter and has the unions (strong here) backing. If he wins and his performance on city council is an indication, he'll be useless in the legislature also. The guy is a media hound and knows what to say when the camera or mike is pointed at him. It seldom results in like action though.

The Liberal is a cast off by his party, playing strictly to the ethnic vote. I don't think for a moment that Wynne had any delusions about his chances. He appears genuine, but that won't help him. He's polling at around 17% and I expect that will drop after the televised debate they're going to have here.

The Conservative candidate is a veteran of this ridings elections. He's a good solid guy. He's increased his numbers every time against Duncan and was making ground. Had Duncan stayed and run again, I think this guy might have upset him this time.

So I'm voting on the local level, not the provincial one.

That said:

Hudak reminds me of Richard Nixon when he showed up with his five o'clock shadow to debate Kennedy. He's not telegenic and gives off a smug, condescending attitude even when he doesn't intend to. Which is all the time.

Horvath is another NDP glory seeker. She was told by members, here, unanimously, and elsewhere around the province to pull the plug on the Libs. She turned around and said, to the effect, "after consulting with our members, they don't want an election". She lied, plain and simple, to stay in position. Ontarians see her for what she is and that bothers her greatly. She'll likely face a leadership challenge after the next election and she doesn't want to give up her day job.

Wynne has been nothing but McSquinty's bagman from the get go. Before and after her election. She (and her party) are deadmen walking.

 

[a_majoor]

Time honoured practice of vote buying rolled out again in Ontario. "Wher's my cheque", you ask? You're probably the one who is beig forced to pay out for this...

http://www.fuschisforum.com/election-snake-oil-for-ontario-cons/

Election Snake-oil for Ontario Cons
Posted on July 18, 2013

If you believe in coincidence and the tooth fairy, then you will think nothing of the sudden blizzard of cheque manna raining down from the Ontario government. My mother just received a “senior homeowners property tax grant”. My daughter got a substantial “Trillium benefit”. My son, ditto. And even I got a small pittance in “Trillium energy grant”.

The Trillium benefit, some may recall, was created out of a mix of provincial, refundable tax credits (sales tax relief, lodging relief, energy assistance etc.), which were paid out at tax refund time. Never missing a chance to grab credit, McGuinty’s Ontario government, – which deserved credit for very little else - decided in its wisdom that rather than returning this money in a mysterious and anonymous lump sum every year, it would be more beneficial to the government to give it a name and dispense it in monthly cheques. Average taxpayers would still have little clue why they were getting it, but they would have little doubt where this Ontario Tax Benefit was coming from and to hell with the additional administrative cost of this little scam. The only problem was that the monthly cheques were miniscule compared to the yearly lump that taxpayers used to get. Presto, change-o, the bankrupt Liberal government of Ontario has suddenly found a way to pay the Trillium benefit in a lump sum to the delight of the uninformed. It is nothing more than coincidence that all these cheques are being cut less than two weeks before critical by-elections.

It should be redundant by now, to point out that this Liberal government has no shame. No flim-flam is beneath their dignity. No politically motivated misuse of taxpayers’ money too unjust. No bribe too expensive to fit into their fiscal smoke and mirrors. No timing of these indiscretions too outrageous.

Is anyone in this province awake?

 

[a_majoor]

The lighter side of the election: "Champaign Communist" by Helix

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgY5IJv9zK4&feature=player_embedded#at=11

 

[Inquisitor]

Doug Holyday winning in in Etobicoke is a very good sign for at least several reasons.

I grew up in Etobicoke Central. In terms of a hardworking "my constituents come first" - he is the real deal.

Off topic Perhaps all candidate for office should start at the local level, as if it will ever happen.

Tim Hudak? I don't care for some of his policies but credit were due, he is the hardest working of the provincial leaders and not afraid to take a principled stand.

Best wishes

 

[Remius]

Really?  The only signs I see is that Ontarians are looking to the NDP as the government in waiting and not the Conservatives.  Hudak botched the last election and was only able to win one seat in this bi-election.  The NDP gained ground.  Ottawa South was looking to go PC but the polls got it wrong (again). 

Not even 24hrs and there are calls for change in the PC party.  Maybe not at the leadership level, but if this bi-election is any indication, they are not connecting with people.  Even when the governing party is marred in scandal and playing dirty tricks.

Could Wynne pull off a Clark or a Redford in the next general election?  At this point I'm thinking she might.

 

[The Bread Guy]

.... Off topic Perhaps all candidate for office should start at the local level, as if it will ever happen ....

A bad municipal councillor won't necessarily make a better MPP or MP.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Really?  The only signs I see is that Ontarians are looking to the NDP as the government in waiting and not the Conservatives.  Hudak botched the last election and was only able to win one seat in this bi-election.  The NDP gained ground.  Ottawa South was looking to go PC but the polls got it wrong (again). 

Not even 24hrs and there are calls for change in the PC party.  Maybe not at the leadership level, but if this bi-election is any indication, they are not connecting with people.  Even when the governing party is marred in scandal and playing dirty tricks.

Could Wynne pull off a Clark or a Redford in the next general election?  At this point I'm thinking she might.

Don't count what you saw in Windsor as an indicator. Percy Hatfield was a long time union executive. He was a union man on city council siding most often for the local labour council. Windsor, especially, Windsor-Tecumseh, is a blue collar, lunch bucket crowd populated by union people. Hatfield has name recognition and was a local newscaster. You only had to see the news programs that kept showing Ken Lewenza, national president of the CAW, at the polling station, if you had any doubt about who was being courted to vote here.

Most people that vote NDP are still in town, at their jobs. Most that vote PC are on vacation.

The reason Duncan (liberal) used to win the riding was because he spent tax dollars like a drunken sailor there. If the population of Windsor -Tecumseh likes solidarity, they like free money better. Now that largesse is gone they can go back to voting like their unions want them to.

 

[a_majoor]

This not only explains the Ontario election, but also I think elections in general. This is also why polls are becoming so out to lunch:

http://clownatmidnight.blogspot.ca/2013/08/nobody-goes-to-jail.html

Nobody Goes To Jail

There are no "low information voters." The problem is not "media bias." The problem is not that people don't know about the gas plant scandal or the email deletion scandal or any number of Liberal scandals. The problem is that there is more corruption, lawbreaking, and general bad behaviour in politics now than there has ever been, and nobody gets punished for it.

The voters have accepted that in a world where everything is the next Adscam but nobody ever goes to jail or suffers serious life consequences as a result of whatever wrongdoing may or may not have happened, it is utterly pointless to pay attention to the constant scandalmongering of opposition parties, because they know nothing is going to come of it, win or lose.

Whatever level of government you are at, wherever you live, political partisans are whacking each over the head with each other's scandals as hard as they can. For every ORNGE, there's a Walkerton. For every Mike Duffy, there's a Mac Harb. For every Rob Ford crack video, there's a David Miller garbage strike. Everybody is up to their waists in the same muck while complaining that it's the other guys who smell bad, not them.

Driving this madness is the perception amongst politicos that voters are tired of scandal (which is true) and that the solution is not to send the scandalmakers to jail, but to replace them with a different group of (what will eventually be) scandalmakers, because everyone (especially these selfsame politicos) knows that after a time, governments buckle under the weight of scandal. Then the politicos throw their hands up in wonderment and ask themselves why the voters stick to the devil they know.

And it's important that a change in government is the only consequence that can come as a result of political screwballery- that, and no more- because once people start getting sent to jail for this kind of thing, it's going to be inconvenient for a whole lot of people. A whole caste of government workers without the ability or will to survive in the private sector or in the regulated professions will suddenly have to be under the microscope. Useless nephews and relatives will be out of work across the country. The PR fraternity (all of whom have their own dirty laundry which I'm sure they wouldn't appreciate being put out into the public eye) will suddenly experience a big drying up in client revenue, because the law is the law and precedent is pretty hard to handwave away with a few strategically placed press releases.

Not only that, but how in the hell are we ever going to get top quality candidates to put their lives on hold for the prospect of holding political office if they know they could end up in jail someday? In a world where Ken Kirupa gets called a no-name candidate by the Toronto Sun just because he isn't Doug Holyday, we can't afford to do anything that will alienate the Chrystia Freelands of the world from making the jump. No, indeed- that future is too scary to contemplate seriously.

Under these circumstances, the thing most people do is blame Tim Hudak and the people around him and assume that if only Tim would just get the message right the province would be a sea of Tory blue. If these people had knocked on any doors in the past month, however, they might have discovered a whole range of voters who had decided that "they're all the same" and that it made no difference who was running, or who was leading, or what the message was, or what scandal was currently taking up how much space in which newspaper or TV news program that was driving whatever agenda.

Meanwhile the NDP continue to mobilize their people and take ridings from the Liberals, while their leader gets plaudits from the media for her "positive approach" which isn't a positive approach at all because she believes that everyone who isn't a union hack is a puppet of the 1%. Instead of hacking away at scandals, she wants to redistribute privilege, which is understandably a very tantalizing prospect for the many underprivileged people we have in Ontario as a result of the Liberal reign of error. And when privilege is redistributed- through use of guillotines, if necessary- you had better believe that lots of people are going to suffer for having offended our new union overlords.

Not the stuffy, slow-moving rule-of-law type of justice we would have expected from a functional society, but how long has it been since Ontario's been functional?

 

[Edward Campbell]

That is a definite,.............I too supported Mike Harris's 'programs', until the morons he surrounded himself with went to work on them. [I call that whole regime, except for Mr. Runciman, "The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight", ala Don Knotts]

Mr. Hudak's problem is that he doesn't need to surround himself with stupid, he radiates it enough all by himself.  I'm glad my riding is not one of the by-elections, there is no way I could vote Conservative as long as Mr. Hudak remains at the helm.


EDIT: forgot the "no".

The Toronto Sun reports that PC Leader Tim Hudak faces [a] leadership challenge. The report says that "Ten London-area Tory party members have signed a motion to amend the PC party constitution to allow for a leadership vote to take place. Many party members have expressed dismay over the Tories’ poor byelection showing last week and feel Hudak’s low personal popularity ratings have a lot to do with that." It quotes one source as saying that “The issue arose because at the door and on the telephone, voters expressed their dislike for Tim Hudak.”

 

[PuckChaser]

A new leader is what the Ontario Tories need to kick start their campaigning. Hudak has laid the groundwork of corruption within the governing Liberals, now the Tories need a well-spoken, charismatic leader to take over the ball and run with it. Ontario voters are looking for anyone but Liberals and NDP.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I've said before, Hudak's physical image is too Richard Nixon-esqe. Right down to the five o'clock shadow. That and he has a weasel-rodent look about him, and I'm not saying that to be derogatory. People pick up on that stuff, usually in about the first 10-15 seconds and while their mulling his physical appearance, they miss the message, but by then, they've already made up their minds.

He's, so very, not telegenic, and that hurts him with todays young voter that's trying to decide what side of the fence they want to be on.

 

[GAP]

Maybe it's time some charismatic federal CPC member left their ivory tower and took over the reins of the provincial wing......is there such an animal?  :dunno:

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Maybe it's time some charismatic federal CPC member left their ivory tower and took over the reins of the provincial wing......is there such an animal?  :dunno:

:sarcasm: How about Bob Rae.  ;D He's opportunistic and will jump ship to whatever party will further his career, no matter what his convictions are. If he has any real ones. :sarcasm:

 

[GAP]

Ontario already had had a taste of Rae in one of his other itinerations, I doubt they would want another.

Mind.....to his mind, if Rae can't be PM, maybe he could be Premier..... :

 

[Edward Campbell]

A new leader is what the Ontario Tories need to kick start their campaigning. Hudak has laid the groundwork of corruption within the governing Liberals, now the Tories need a well-spoken, charismatic leader to take over the ball and run with it. Ontario voters are looking for anyone but Liberals and NDP.

How about:

?

The bad news is that she finished third behind Hudak and Frank Klees.

The 2nd ballot results were:

Tim Hudak         39.95% +6.0 change from 1st ballot
Frank Klees       31.94% +1.9      "        "      "      "
Christine Elliott 28.10% +1.6      "        "      "      "

Mike Harris and most of the Mike Harris team supported Hudak (Elliott's husband, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty supported her); the religious right supported Klees. Elliott took the Progressive Conservative vote but it is only about 30% of the party membership.

In my opinion Elliott is the most likely PC to win the next election but it remains unlikely that she can win her own party.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

How about:

?

The bad news is that she finished third behind Hudak and Frank Klees.

The 2nd ballot results were:

Tim Hudak         39.95% +6.0 change from 1st ballot
Frank Klees       31.94% +1.9      "        "      "      "
Christine Elliott 28.10% +1.6      "        "      "      "

Mike Harris and most of the Mike Harris team supported Hudak (Elliott's husband, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty supported her); the religious right supported Klees. Elliott took the Progressive Conservative vote but it is only about 30% of the party membership.

In my opinion Elliott is the most likely PC to win the next election but it remains unlikely that she can win her own party.

But that was then Edward, this is now. Many of those that originally voted this way may be inclined to rethink their vote should they believe Hudak is about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again....and again....and..........

I think a runoff between three female party leaders is something that this province could get behind. It would go a long way to evening out the gender vote.

 

[Edward Campbell]

But that was then Edward, this is now. Many of those that originally voted this way may be inclined to rethink their vote should they believe Hudak is about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again....and again....and..........

I think a runoff between three female party leaders is something that this province could get behind. It would go a long way to evening out the gender vote.

Agree with you on both points ~ maybe it's just hope on the first one.

 

[GAP]

People are not adverse to the idea of 2 or 3 women party leaders duking it out....eg: Alberta.

She might have a shot, especially with Wynn(sp?) in place....

 

[Retired AF Guy]

A new leader is what the Ontario Tories need to kick start their campaigning. Hudak has laid the groundwork of corruption within the governing Liberals, now the Tories need a well-spoken, charismatic leader to take over the ball and run with it. Ontario voters are looking for anyone but Liberals and NDP.

How about Doug Holyday? The Conservatives have rural Ontario pretty well sewn-up and with Holyday they finally have a toehold in suburban Toronto. Holyday, who was deputy mayor of Toronto and familiar to Toronto voters, as leader, might be able to convince more suburban voters to vote Conservative.

 

[a_majoor]

Too bad, Hudak probably would have been a competent Premier.

I think the bigger issue is not so much the leader but the circle of (generally unelected) advisers and party functionaries who surround him. I do follow Ontario politics and know people who are connected at various levels, and we are all struck by the fact that Hudak is still surrounded by the same "winning" team that John Tory had.

This may be part of a larger meta issue: while politicians are the visible face of the party, much of what the party does is going on in the back rooms unobserved by the public. So if we are upset at the politicians or political leadership, we are actually reacting to the 90% of the iceberg that we don't see. In that regard, unless any putative "new" leaderdoes a huge job of housecleaning, we will likely get more of the same.

We see this with the Federal Liberal Party as well; they are bereft of ideas and any motivating principle (besides win at any cost). Even potential leadership candidates with actual platforms would have been unable, if challenged, to explain how these platforms were in any way "Liberal"; Marc Garneu's platform would have been a very comfortable fit with the NDP while Martha Hall Findley's was comfortably Conservative. The LPC eventually sidestepped the issue by crowning a leadership candidate without any platform at all.....the Liberal party executive has pinned their hopes on a PR stunt. Since the executive has thrown away every chance to correct the lack of principle or platform since 2006 (if not earlier) they may well discover they will achieve the same level of success as they have in the previous elections. How many other political parities are stuck in the same rut because of entrenched circles of advisers and functionaries?

edit to add: a blogger suggests what is really the issue and possible solution:

http://www.fuschisforum.com/time-for-pcs-to-break-some-eggs/

Time for PCs to Break Some Eggs
Posted on August 5, 2013

The day after the by-elections, an e-mail from the PC party of Ontario elaborated on the great gains made, and all the reasons for future optimism. The gist of my reply to them was that they are dreaming, and that the optimistic outcome is thirty years away.

I will decline to point fingers at Hudack but I will certainly point blame at his advisors. Their style has shown a depressing consistency ever since Mike Harris’ departure. Mr. Harris inflamed the teachers unions, so Earnie Eaves tried to play Liberal light. John Tory who is scarcely more conservative than McGuinty, tried to mount the throne on a ladder of platitudes, until one of them proved to be a faulty step. Mr. Hudack tried to win by default, expecting McGuinty’s record to do him in. None of these elections left a discernible platform by which to identify either party or man.

Since that dud, Mr. Hudack has tried to elaborate on a conservative platform. It is a credible one but conservative media accuse it of being too like Mike Harris and of turning off voters. Nonsense! No one but the pundits and party diehards has read it. The comatose Ontario voter has no idea what’s in it.

What the Ontario conservatives lack is a fighting spirit. A long history of soft-spoken professionals, has weeded out of their ranks, anyone capable of understanding the mood of the street and willing to raise his fists to emphasize the party’s core beliefs (if they know what they are). They cannot sway the public/ union vote. Their belligerence is ingrained after Mr. Harris’ attempts at reform. Nor can they wait for victory by default. The party in power will always purchase votes faster (see tuition reductions, Wynne’s truces with teachers etc.) The remaining votes are barely pried from their distractions with a crowbar.

Conservatives will get the attention of the passive masses by identifying the policies that cause pain and proposing clear, fast-acting solutions. They must be ready to break some eggs. Example: McGuinty’s energy policies are burying us, not only on our bills, but by forcing industry to leave. Propose a solution and be ready to use an axe to apply it. The alternative is, going down the same sewer that is swallowing Europe.