Ontario Election

[Scott]

The article said $20,....RG's $28 was hearsay for now.

Fair enough.

20 bucks is too much. If we are talking Timmies.

Edit: re-read the article, 20 bucks an hour with benefits.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The article said $20,....RG's $28 was hearsay for now.

Yup,........bad management thinking a new business could pay that to start out.

Ummm, did I say $28 somewhere? I said they were CAW members. CAW doesn't just have locals of auto workers.

Just like not all OPSEU members work for corrections.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

My mistake,.....it was in the article quoted in your post.

Well,...just the worthy memebers of OPSEU work for Corrections......

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Well,...just the worthy memebers of OPSEU work for Corrections......

Which is why a large number of other bargaining units feel that they are not listened to, consulted or cared about when certain other, larger units, drive the agenda.

Get to the polling stations, check the box we wants you to and we'll see you when the next contract comes around, capiche?
Questions? Don't bother, the answer is the same.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

If only that were true,............since we don't get almost any say in the Central agreement.
Just those that will never see a minute after 5:00 or a weekend................

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If only that were true,............since we don't get almost any say in the Central agreement.
Just those that will never see a minute after 5:00 or a weekend................

That would leave my office out then

 

[a_majoor]

Please forward this the Premier Designate Wynne's office, and to every Liberal you know. California offers a preview of what Ontario's future may be:

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/02/04/my-visit-to-california/

My visit to California

Victor Fedeli, Special to Financial Post | Feb 4, 2013 8:58 PM ET
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What Ontario might look like soon

After reading many articles on the dismal financial situations facing Ontario and California, I headed to California to see first hand what my province of Ontario might look like in the near future.

My wife Patty and I have many fond memories of our trips through California. You can imagine our surprise at the sight of garbage piling up along the highway between San Francisco and Stockton, which joined San Bernardino and Vallejo in declaring bankruptcy. This is the tip of the iceberg — many more cities are teetering on the edge.

Assigning blame for California’s problems depends on which side of the political spectrum you fall. The right points the finger at high public-sector wages and generous pensions and benefits. The left blames the bursting of the real estate bubble. What cannot be disputed is the fact that the cities in bankruptcy overspent. When assessments fell, revenues fell — and they couldn’t pay their bills.

According to Michael Lewis, in his gripping book Boomerang, Vallejo is the city to pity most. “The lobby of City Hall is completely empty. It’s just a collection of empty cubicles. Eighty per cent of the city’s budget — and the lion’s share of the claims that had thrown it into bankruptcy — were wrapped up in the pay and benefits.”

Now, the city manager runs the entire city of 116,000 with a staff of one. “When she goes out to the bathroom she has to lock the door.”

On our trip, we passed hundreds of wind turbines as we drove to the historic community of Sonora. This is in the heart of gold country, as it has been since the original gold rush of 1849. Today, thanks to expensive energy, the mines are closed and logging operations are silent. Museums were closed because of staffing cuts. The streets were empty. But what we did see was a lot of casinos!

Does this sound like Ontario? Mine processors here have closed — Xstrata Copper in Timmins shed 670 employees and moved to Quebec for cheaper power. We were the No. 1 mining jurisdiction in the world; today we’ve fallen to 13th. The forestry sector is devastated — there are 60 closed mills today. The Far North Act has banned logging and mining exploration from another 225,000 square kilometres of land.

As in California, wind turbines are popping up in rural Ontario. But our turbine owners are offered some of the highest subsidies in the world. This has caused energy rates in Ontario to rise to the second highest in North America behind P.E.I.

The Liberals have cancelled the slots-at-racetrack program, where they earned $1.2-billion annually, to replace that with 29 casinos sprinkled throughout Ontario.

I ask this simple question: Is that the best we can do?

We have 600,000 unemployed in Ontario today. There are 300,000 fewer manufacturing jobs. These people need hope, not another short-term money grab by a government unable to control its tax-and-spend ways.

California used to be the ultimate realization of the American dream. Similarly, Ontario was once the engine of Confederation. Both have fallen on hard times, but as usual California is leading the way. If we heed the warning of Stockton, San Bernardino, Vallejo and many other cities on the verge of bankruptcy, Ontario can lead again.

And we can avoid turning the nightmare into reality.

Financial Post

Victor Fedeli is a former advertising executive, two-term mayor of North Bay, and current MPP for Nipissing and PC energy critic.

I visited family in CA during the holidays, and my experiences were rather similar.

Edit to add this piece, which brings the numbers into frightening focus:

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/02/04/worse-than-california/

Worse than California

Jason Clemens and Niels Veldhuis, Special to Financial Post | Feb 4, 2013 8:58 PM ET
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Ontario faces crisis due to 78% jump in spending

‘I do not want Ontario to become like California,” Ontario Finance Minister Dwight Duncan once proclaimed. And it’s not hard to understand why — California is a fiscal nightmare. It has the lowest bond rating in the United States and its own treasurer, Bill Lockyer, referred to the state budget as “a fiscal train wreck.”

Yet, despite all that is said about California’s finances in the media and financial markets, Ontario is in much worse shape.

Back in 2002-03, the fiscal year before the governing Liberals took office, Ontario’s net debt (assets minus liabilities) stood at $132.6-billion. In the ensuing decade, the province’s debt ballooned by almost 78% to $235.6-billion (2011-12). Most worrying, however, is that if Ontario continues on its current path (status quo in terms of spending and revenues), its debt will balloon to over $550-billion (66% of GDP) by the end of the decade (2019-20).

As the nearby table highlights, Ontario is decidedly worse than California on every measure of debt. For example, despite the fact that California’s population and economy are almost three times that of Ontario, Ontario’s total debt is 64.4% larger than ­California.

On a per-person basis, Ontario’s bonded debt (the concept of net debt is not used in U.S. public accounting) currently stands at nearly $18,000, over four-and-a-half times that of Californiaat $3,800. As a share of the economy, Ontario’s debt (38.6%) is more than five times that of the Golden State (7.7% of GDP). This is a stunning difference in the burden of debt, particularly given the attention and concern focused on California compared with Ontario.

While the two jurisdictions face similar average interest rates for their debt, the large difference in the stock of the debt means equally large differences in interest costs. Specifically, Ontario spends almost double what California does on interest costs in dollar terms and a little over three times what California spends as a share of the revenues collected, 8.9% compared to 2.8% of revenues. This is money that could have been spent on health care, education, public safety.

Thankfully, the Liberal government of Ontario, which just selected a new leader, Kathleen Wynne, has a real opportunity to break with past policies and fundamentally deal with its skyrocketing public debt.

There are two principal barriers holding back genuine efforts at tackling the province’s fiscal problems. The first is a basic misunderstanding of the province’s deficits and debt. More specifically, there is a view that Ontario’s deficits and mounting debt are a result of a lack of revenues. The data here tell a very different story.
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In 2002-03, Ontario collected $74.9-billion in revenues and spent $65.1-billion on programs. Some $9.7-billion was spent on interest costs, which resulted in a balanced budget.

Revenues grew to $104.1-billion in 2007-08 (prior to the recession) before decreasing in 2008-09 and 2009-10. This year (2012-13), revenues are expected to be $112.2-billion, some $8-billion higher than the pre-recession high. All told, revenues have grown by 49.8% since 2002-03.

The problem is that provincial program spending has increased by 77.8% from 2002-03 to 2012-13. Simply put, Ontario has had a spending problem over the last decade, not a revenue problem.

The second barrier to dealing with the province’s deficits and debt is apathy. Ontarians are either unaware or uninterested in the province’s indebtedness. We should not be surprised by politicians and bureaucrats ignoring policy issues and the risks associated with them when the citizens of the province don’t seem concerned.

Take, for example, The Globe and Mail editorial the day after Wynne’s victory, which started with the headline “Premier-designate Kathleen Wynne must practise saying no.” If only it were that simple. “Saying no” would have been good advice back in 2002-03; now the new premier must boldly and quickly strike at the root of the problem: unsustainable increases in health care, education and most other government spending.

Or consider how the folks at the Business News Network reacted to our study by claiming: “The reality is once the economy starts growing strongly again in Ontario, revenues will rise and expenditures on things like welfare will fall. It’s not really about cutting spending; it’s about resuming economic growth.”

This indifference is buttressed by the near complete lack of any serious response by the Ontario government to the much-heralded report by the province’s own Commission on the Reform of Ontario’s Public Services, which became known as the Drummond commission. The commission’s report should have been a call to arms for the government to act on reform. Instead, inaction has ensued.

The reality is that Ontario’s indebtedness is significantly worse than the poster-child for bad public finances, California. The inaction to date only delays the inevitable and deepens the breadth and depth of changes needed later. The new premier has an opportunity to set the province on a new, sustainable path. Let us hope she both understands and embraces the need for change.

Financial Post

Jason Clemens and Niels Veldhuis are the editors of “State of Ontario’s Indebtedness: Warning Signs to Act,” recently released by the Fraser Institute.

 

[a_majoor]

Ontario is on the verge of letting another opportunity slip away. As a very indebted Province, there is a need to encourage new investment and clear away roadblocks for economic growth. While I am not thrilled about the idea that the Province should be on the hook for a highway (it benefits the company, if the company cannot pony up then the money from the province is a loan, not a grant or gift), the message that Premier designate Wynne is sending by sitting on her hands is pretty alarming. If potential investors with billions to put on the table are being placed on hold, what message do smaller investors get, and how do they respond?

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/16/ring-of-fire-in-jeopardy-over-miners-money-problems/

Ring of Fire in jeopardy over miner’s money problems
Allison Martell, Reuters | 13/04/16 | Last Updated: 13/04/16 2:34 PM ET
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TORONTO — The future of Canada’s Ring of Fire, a remote cluster of rich mineral deposits in northwestern Ontario, is looking increasingly dim as the finances of its biggest private investor, Cliffs Natural Resources Inc, have taken a turn for the worse.

Crouched in swampy lowlands and named for a Johnny Cash song, the 4,000 sq km zone has no rail lines, highways or reliable power. Political leaders say the Ring of Fire could support a century of mining, but the cash-strapped government has yet to commit infrastructure funds.

But other challenges facing Cliffs may prove more difficult. The iron ore and metallurgical coal producer has proposed a US$3.3-billion chromite project, including a US$600-million highway that could open the region for smaller mining companies such as Noront Resources Ltd.

The project, Black Thor, would be North America’s first major chromite mine, and Cliffs touts the mineral — which is refined into ferrochrome, used to make stainless steel — as a natural next step for a company with long experience supplying the steel industry. But not everyone is enthusiastic.

“They have an infrastructure, logistical problem,” said Robert Yuksel Yildirim, president of Turkish industrial conglomerate and ferrochrome producer Yildirim Group, who considered investing in Black Thor.

Yildirim has met with Cliffs several times, but does not plan to buy in. He is concerned about excess supply in the chrome ore market, where China is the primary buyer: “At the market price, I don’t think they will be competitive,” he said.

Cliffs has been battered by weak iron ore prices, and a key growth project, Bloom Lake iron ore in Quebec, faces higher-than-expected costs. The stock has plunged more than 70% over the last 12 months, as soft Chinese demand weighed on companies that supply steelmakers, hitting relatively high-cost iron ore producers like Cliffs.

“For Cliffs, this constitutes an existential threat,” said Morningstar analyst Daniel Rohr. “If we head down the road I think we’re heading down, there’s not going to be a lot of capital in Cliffs’ piggy bank to fund something on the scale of this Ring of Fire project.”

Asked about the steep capital costs – not far off Cliffs’ US$2.8-billion market capitalization – Bill Boor, Cliffs’ senior vice president for ferroalloys, said the company will consider joint ventures as a source of funding, and capital spending would be spread out.

“I think sometimes there’s an intuition that people have that when we say ‘go’ on a project we have to be sitting on that money, and yet, we’ve got several years to spend it,” he said.

Boor is clear that Cliffs would need government support to build its highway. But crucial talks with provincial authorities, who have jurisdiction over mining development, have been on hold for months, and it is unclear why.

Related
Ring of Fire project has staggering hurdles to overcome, but progress on horizon
Tony Clement takes on responsibility for controversial Ring of Fire

FIFTY BILLION DOLLARS

Tony Clement, the federal minister assigned to promote the project, says the minerals in the Ring of Fire could be worth up to US$50-billion, and development could create more than 5,000 local jobs. At least a dozen TSX Venture-listed companies have projects or claims near Black Thor.

KWG Resources Inc, invested in an early-stage chromite project in the region, wants to build a railroad on the narrow ridge that Cliffs’ highway would follow. Chief Executive Frank Smeenk is frustrated that the government chose to work only with Cliffs in the first place.

“They’re blinded by the size, by the big guy,” he said.

John Mason, mining project manager for the economic development agency in Thunder Bay, the region’s most populous municipality, said Cliffs’ long history and strong relationship with steelmakers gives it an important role in Ring of Fire.

But he is well aware that Cliffs is not nearly as big as it was a year ago: “It’s a concern, there’s no question about that,” he said.

The proportion of Cliffs shares on loan has risen sharply over the last year, an indication that traders are selling the stock short, betting it will fall further.

On April 12, just over one quarter of Cliffs’ shares outstanding were on loan, more than all but one of its peers on the S&P 500 index, according to data from Markit.

Some analysts also worry about a cluster of projects that could dramatically increase the supply of iron ore pellets in the Great Lakes market. Credit Suisse’s Nathan Littlewood says Cliffs needs to consider drastic options, selling assets or raising billions in equity, to survive the next commodity cycle.

THOR’S HAMMER

Black Thor’s role in the Ring of Fire can be traced back to last spring, when Ontario backed Cliffs’ highway, a 340 km north-south route, over the east-west road or rail options put forward by other miners.

Cliffs has a non-binding agreement with the province, and while terms are not public, Noront said Ontario indicated in August that it planned to “contribute financially” to a north-south route. Noront is ready to look at other options if needed, but currently plans to use the road to ship concentrate from its Eagle’s Nest nickel, copper and platinum group element project.

Noront, which completed its feasibility study for Eagle’s Nest in September 2012, is the highest-profile of a cluster of smaller mining companies with interests in the region, including Probe Mines Ltd and Fancamp Exploration Ltd.

But Cliffs’ talks with the province have been on hold since Kathleen Wynne took over as premier in January. It is not clear what, if anything, that means, but Wynne could rethink her predecessor’s approach, given that there is no binding deal.

The Ontario Ministry of Northern Development and Mines declined an interview request. It said in a statement attributed to Minister Michael Gravelle that it is looking forward to resuming detailed talks “shortly.”

Black Thor would produce 600,000 tons of ferrochrome at a furnace in nearby Sudbury, plus 1 million tons of ore concentrate for export. Cliffs plans to target customers in North America, Western Europe and Asia, and will no doubt court steelmakers near and far as it wraps up its feasibility study later this year.

An environmental assessment and consultations with local aboriginal communities are already under way. Some aboriginal leaders are wary of the upheaval that development could bring, and environmental groups worry about the impact on wetlands.

But CRT Capital Group analyst Kuni Chen does not see infrastructure or permitting issues as deal breakers.

“I think the project makes sense, the strategy makes sense, it’s consistent with their approach to be a supplier of raw materials to the steel or stainless steel industry,” he said.

Boor said the search for a joint venture partner will likely start in earnest by the end of this year, adding that so far there has been no lack of interest.

Sidebar:
Environmental reviews of Ring of Fire mine running into trouble

Just as the federal government strives to speed up environmental reviews of major mining and energy projects, approvals for the giant Ring of Fire proposal in northern Ontario are getting increasingly tangled.

Continue reading.


© Thomson Reuters 2013

 

[a_majoor]

Given that the current Liberal government lives and dies on the word of the NDP, I think it is 100% certain that the number of reccomendations proposed in this article to be adopted will be 0. Ontario will be a have not province for decades to come...

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/04/17/ontario-budget-wynn/

Rethinking Ontario’s budget: Wynne’s chance to break from the past
Niels Veldhuis and Jason Clemens, Special to Financial Post | 13/04/17 | Last Updated: 13/04/17 8:11 PM ET
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Government workers in Ontario earn wages that are nearly 14% higher on average than private sector workers in comparable positions

With the Ontario government expected to soon introduce a new budget and the province continuing to head towards its own fiscal cliff, Premier Kathleen Wynne has a chance to make a clean break from the fiscal mismanagement of her predecessor, Dalton McGuinty.

To stem the tide of rising debt, Premier Wynne needs to initiate a radical re-think of current spending and put forth a credible plan to balance the budget in the short term. After nearly a decade of excessive spending and large deficits, Ontario’s indebtedness is more than a little worrying. A sign of the province’s significant debt is the fact that it performs worse than the poster-child for bad public finances, California, on every measure of indebtedness.

For example, as a share of the economy, Ontario’s debt (38.6%) in 2011 was more than five-times that of California (7.7%). On a per capita basis, Ontario’s debt is more than four-and-a-half times higher. And Ontarians spend more than three times as much of the provincial budget on interest costs on that debt: 8.9% vs. 2.8%. Such revelations regarding the seriousness of Ontario’s indebtedness should propel real change in policy at Queen’s Park.

Of course, as the old adage goes, the first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem. The common view is that Ontario’s deficits and mounting debt are the result of a lack of revenues. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Consider that in 2002-03, the fiscal year before the governing Liberals took office, Ontario collected $74.9-billion in revenues. Revenues grew to $104.1-billion by 2007-08 (prior to the recession). In 2012-13, revenues are expected to be $113.8-billion, nearly $10-billion higher than the pre-recession high. Put differently, revenues have grown by 50% since 2002-03.

The problem is that program spending has increased at a much higher rate. Specifically, program spending is expected to reach $114.7-billion for 2012-13 compared to $65.1-billion in 2002-03, the year before the McGuinty Liberals took office. This represents an increase in program spending of 75% compared to revenues that increased 50% over the same time period.

Clearly, the Ontario government has a spending problem not a revenue problem.

Had the government simply held spending increases in line with economic growth, spending would be some $26-billion lower this year and the province would be operating with a significant surplus.

Instead, the deficit remains at nearly $12-billion and the province’s debt has ballooned to $236-billion or nearly $18,000 per Ontarian. Most worrying, however, is that if Ontario continues its status quo spending and revenues, its debt is forecast to reach more than $550-billion (66% of GDP) by the end of the decade (2019-20).

Related
Scott Stinson: Don Drummond puzzled by Ontario Liberals’ ‘bashful’ response to damning public services report

The challenge for Premier Wynne is to demonstrate leadership in both understanding the seriousness of the province’s indebtedness and in devising a realistic plan to solve the situation.

As a first step, Premier Wynne should abandon the Liberals’ unrealistic 2012 budget that hoped growth in program spending could be constrained to an average 0.6% over the next six years while relying on optimistic revenue growth forecasts averaging 3.7% annually.

The notion that the government will be able to hold program spending growth to an average rate of 0.6% is wishful thinking, at best, given its inability to control spending over the past decade (see nearby chart). In addition, the assumed growth rate is less than that proposed by the much-heralded report of the Commission on the Reform of Ontario’s Public Services (the Drummond report), without enacting anywhere close to the level of reforms it proposed.

Herein lies the risk of producing a budget that simply assumes spending constraint and improving revenues. It will likely saddle Ontarians with deficits into the foreseeable future and unfairly burden younger Ontarians with even more debt.

A credible plan to balance the budget in the near-term would strike at the root of the problem: excessive government spending. The key is to both reduce and reform government spending. To that end, the government would do well to take the reforms recommended by the Drummond Report seriously.

One area of spending that deserves perhaps the greatest scrutiny is public sector compensation. Government workers in Ontario earn wages that are nearly 14% higher on average than private sector workers in comparable positions. In addition, public sector workers enjoy significantly greater non-wage benefits including pensions, earlier retirement and greater job security. If public sector compensation was aligned with that of the private sector, Ontarian taxpayers could save billions annually.

Other key targets for spending reductions include Ontario’s costly electricity subsidies and corporate subsidies, which unfairly subsidize poorly performing businesses at the expense of investments in successful, high performing businesses.

Adopting two key health policies common in other nations with universal access health care — a change in hospital funding to encourage competition and the introduction of consumer cost sharing– would save money and result in improved access to health care.

Substantial savings are possible if the government is open to reforming programs. Further delay and inaction will send the province towards a fiscal crisis with dire economic and social consequences.

Jason Clemens and Niels Veldhuis are the editors of State of Ontario’s Indebtedness: Warning Signs to Act, which was recently released by the Fraser Institute.

 

[a_majoor]

Pay the Danegeld, and you never get rid ofthe Dane.....

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/04/24/kelly-mcparland-kathleen-wynne-like-mcguinty-discovers-the-ndp-wont-stay-bought/

Kelly McParland: Kathleen Wynne, like McGuinty, discovers the NDP won’t stay bought
Kelly McParland | 13/04/24 12:07 PM ET
More from Kelly McParland | @KellyMcParland

One of the many annoyances in politics is when you think you’ve bought the  support of a rival party, only to discover they won’t stay bought.

Kathleen Wynne is discovering the exasperation of dealing with the Ontario New Democratic Party, which can’t be relied on to quit making demands once its old ones have been met. Her predecessor as premier, Dalton McGuinty, had the same problem. After being reduced to  a minority government, McGuinty needed NDP votes to ensure approval of his final budget, which sought to temper years of liberal spending and slow the borrowing that went with it.

NDP leader Andrea Horwath agreed, in return for the inclusion of an ill-advised new tax on higher-income Ontarians. McGuinty knew the tax would do little if anything to fill the hole he’d dug in the economy over the previous nine years, but agreed anyway, only to be shocked when Horwath continued to criticize elements of the document. He sent her a letter noting their deal, adding:

“But to my surprise and disappointment, your party began to dismantle the very budget bill you personally agreed to see pass,” the premier wrote.

“Several key provisions were defeated on Thursday and your party has given notice that many more are at risk tomorrow and Tuesday,” he said.

Like, what gives? When you buy off a party, you expect them to roll over and play dead, right?  Horwath evidently hasn’t learned this basic aspect of political etiquette. Though she did eventually let the budget pass, she disputed the idea that one concession prevents demands for more.

Wynne, who, like McGuinty, is trying to avoid a budget defeat that would force an election, got downright snappish after kicking an extra $260 million into funding for home-care services, only to find Horwath was just getting started. The NDP is also jockeying for a cut in auto insurance rates, a rise on corporate taxes and “measures” (which means “money”) for youth unemployment.

“This is not a political game,” Wynne responded. “This is not a ping-pong game about ‘you put out a policy and I’ll put out a policy, and we’ll see which one we can fight about and where we land.’… We will not be held hostage to a list, an arbitrary list.

“It’s not that it’s a Liberal budget, it’s not that it’s an NDP budget, or it’s a Conservative budget. It’s the right budget for the people of Ontario.”

It was an out-of-character outburst for the premier, who has been making an effort to portray herself as  the co-operative type, better at getting along with the opposition than the stand-offish McGuinty.

Horwath professed surprise at the discovery that Wynne can bite. The truth is, the Liberals are hostage to the NDP, which is the only party willing to engage in deal-making. The Tories would prefer an election.

“People have told us that they’re looking for change — simple, affordable change — that makes their lives better,” Horwath said. “They’ve been promised it over and over again but constantly find that they’re being asked to pay more and expect less from their government.

“New Democrats have been clear since the throne speech. If we are going to support a budget, it has to create jobs, strengthen health care and make life more affordable for Ontarians,” she added.

Horwath has a point. After 10 years, a well-placed bribe – even one costing $260 million — shouldn’t be assumed to secure opposition support. The Liberals spent more than that in the last election, just to close down a gas plant to save a seat or two. Unfortunately for the Liberals, they don’t have the resources to up the ante. They’ve already reworked the teachers contract, achieved via much strife and confrontation, to sweeten a deal they insisted was the best they could afford. They maintain the new deal won’t cost taxpayers an extra cent, though how that’s possible is difficult to imagine.  And this week they revealed the deficit would be “just” $9.8 billion, well below forecasts though still double what it was when they took office.

So the “Buying off Andrea” fund is in poor shape. It’s no surprise Wynne is feeling the pinch. But it’s not Horwath’s fault if the Liberals spent themselves into a corner.

National Post

 

[a_majoor]

Ontario careens down the road to the fiscal cliff:

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/05/02/ontario-liberals-postpone-spending-restraint/

Ontario Liberal Budget: Deficits are not our problem

Jason Clemens and Niels Veldhuis, Special to Financial Post | 13/05/02 | Last Updated: 13/05/02 7:37 PM ET
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All the major departments receive spending increases as an inability to control spending came through loud and clear

The May 2 minority Liberal budget is a politically expedient document that likely avoids an election but unfortunately fails to tackle Ontario’s looming fiscal crisis. The longer the province waits, the more difficult and painful the reforms will be when the inevitable day of reckoning arrives.

Minister of Finance Charles Sousa was quick to trumpet the $5-billion improvement in last year’s (2012-13) deficit which came in at $9.8-billion instead of the original $14.8-billion. Of course, what he didn’t mention is that over half of the improvement came about from one-time events, including a $1.2-billion boost in corporate tax revenues from tax assessments for years prior and $1.5-billion in savings from reducing liabilities associated with public sector sick-day banking.

In addition, Minister Sousa failed to mention that the budget projects a worse deficit in 2013-14, when the deficit is expected to increase to $11.7-billion.

The increase in the deficit from $9.8-billion last year is due largely to increased program spending. It’s with respect to the spending increase that Ontarians should be extra skeptical since this government’s plan to get to a balanced budget depends heavily on its ability to restrain spending growth going forward.

The Liberals plan to increase program spending by 3% this year (2013-14). However, in last year’s budget, they promised to hold spending growth to 1.1% for 2013-14. Put differently, Minister Sousa and his colleagues have nearly tripled the growth in 2013-14 spending from last year’s plan to the one they put forth this year.

This government’s inability to control government spending came through loud and clear in its budget. The increase in program spending planned for this year increases the deficit back to nearly $12-billion.

Indeed, all the major departments – health, education, postsecondary, social services, and justice – receive increases in spending over the next two years.

Unfortunately for Ontarians, the “restraint” is delayed until next year and the following, with increases of 1.1% and 0.4% respectively. Clearly, the Liberals are kicking the can down the road and when they get there, they simply kick it further.

Had the Liberals actually spent prudently over the past decade there would be no deficit; in fact, the province would have a $12-billion surplus!

As the accompanying chart illustrates, actual program spending increased from $70.4-billion in 2003-04 to $113.6-billion (2012-13). Had program spending increased by the rate of inflation and population growth, current program spending would be $22-billion lower. That means the province would already be in surplus and would have accumulated significantly less debt over the last decade.

This unfortunate history is critical since a significant part of the Liberal “plan” for deficit reduction is premised on the government’s future ability to constrain spending growth and rein in compensation. Beyond that the Liberals will need decent economic growth, stable increases in revenues, and continuing low interest rates.

In short, it’s not a plan grounded in reality.

There are however a few positive notes in the budget, including some discussion of constraining public sector wage and pension gains. These areas need attention, given both the deficit and the size of the gap between public sector compensation and comparable compensation in the private sector. A recent analysis comparing public sector wages in Ontario with similar positions in the private sector concluded that the public sector, on average, enjoyed a 14% premium. This is on top of markedly better pension benefits compared to the private sector and much greater job security. While the government should be lauded for progress to-date, much more is needed.

One of the striking failures of this budget is the absence of any meaningful measures to deal with the province’s growing electricity problems. To put it simply, Ontario’s Green Energy Act (GEA) has been an unmitigated disaster and Budget 2013 does nothing to rectify the problem.

A recent analysis by University of Guelph economist Ross McKitrick calculated that Ontario’s electricity prices will soon be near the highest in North America, if not the highest. Large energy consumers like manufacturers and resource companies, upon whom the provincial government believes the recovery must be based, will face electricity price increases in the range of 40% to 50%. Given the central role energy prices play in these sectors, it’s almost impossible to reconcile the government’s energy plans with its commitment to grow and develop the manufacturing and resource sectors.

Passing a budget when a government is in minority is always a tricky business. Unfortunately, all of the serious problems of deficits, debt, competitiveness, and energy prices were deferred to the future.

Jason Clemens and Niels Veldhuis are contributing editors to the State of Ontario’s Indebtedness: Warning Signs to Act, published by the Fraser Institute (www.fraserinstitute.org).

 

[dapaterson]

Remember, though, the last election was Hudak's to lose - and he did.

Hudak implosion mark II to follow soon.  Very poor tactical choice to declare in advance that his party would vote against the budget - it means that for the next few weeks all discussion (outside of the self-licking ice cream cones of a handful of blogs) will focus on the NDP and the Liberals.

 

[Edward Campbell]

One of the key issues in the last election - one that Tim Hudak failed to properly exploit - involved the cover up of the cost of moving two gas fired power plants.

Now the issue is festering again and, as this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, it is a real scandal:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/in-power-plant-scandal-cover-up-is-worse-than-the-crime/article12375581/#dashboard/follows/

In Ontario power-plant scandal, cover-up is worse than the crime

ADAM RADWANSKI
The Globe and Mail

Published Thursday, Jun. 06 2013

It is so, so much worse than it needed to be.

Yes, the decisions before the last Ontario election to cancel a pair of power of gas-fired power plants in Oakville and Mississauga were indefensibly cynical, and horribly expensive. They were, in some measure, symbolic of the extent to which a government past its best-before date was willing to do anything to stay in power, including belatedly bowing to community pressure that it had previously dismissed as at odds with the greater good.

The fact is, though, that we would not still be talking so much about either decision if the governing Liberals had not lived up to the adage about the cover-up being worse than the crime – taking what could have been a relatively straightforward and not all that unusual case of a government spending its way out of political trouble, and turning it into a full-blown scandal.

The latest twist in this saga, as reported by Information and Privacy Commissioner Ann Cavoukian on Wednesday, is almost breathtaking for both the brazenness and the self-destructiveness involved.

It is difficult to decide which was more ill-advised: a chief of staff to the energy minister violating provincial law by indiscriminately deleting all the e-mails he sent and received, or a chief of staff to former premier Dalton McGuinty going to the head of the Ontario Public Service shortly before power was handed over to Kathleen Wynne, and inquiring as to how one might go about permanently deleting electronic records.

Presumably there was something worrisome in those records, even if staffers tend to avoid using their government e-mail accounts for sensitive exchanges. But whatever it was – evidence of political meddling in negotiations to get out of the power-plant contracts, or advice ignored, or big numbers the government didn’t want out – it’s difficult to imagine it was anything that would capture public attention as much as Liberals violating provincial law (albeit a rather toothless one) by putting potentially damaging documents through the metaphorical shredder.

The obfuscation on this file hasn’t always been quite as shocking, and it has normally been somewhat more defensible. The Liberals can say they low-balled the cost of the two cancellations, now pegged at $310-million for Oakville and $275-million for Oakville, because they really didn’t know where the number would wind up when the final bill was tallied. They can argue, plausibly, that they pushed back against a legislative committee’s demand for related documents because they were wary of adversely affecting those negotiations. They can make a decent case that Mr. McGuinty’s prorogation of the Legislature at the same time as his retirement announcement last fall was about more than just the heat from the brewing controversy.

But the bottom line is that at every turn the Liberals breathed new life into this mess, rather than just doing their best to come up with the real numbers as quickly as possible after the 2011, taking the hit – which, at that point, might have been partly shared by opposition parties that also wanted the plants to be scrapped – and moving on.

That they let it get away from them so badly owed partly to their inexperience with minority government. They didn’t expect, for instance, that the legislative committee would make a somewhat mean-spirited move toward finding then-energy minister Chris Bentley in contempt when documents were slow to emerge. And such surprises seemed to make the Liberals, or some of them at least, behave more and more defensively.

It must also be chalked up to what prompted the power-plant about-faces in the first place. Under Mr. McGuinty, this was a government that was too much in survival mode to properly consider long-term ramifications. And when bad decisions started to catch up to it, it made more of them.

Still, there are Liberals who wonder why such a big deal has been made of it all. The answer is that they turned it into one.

The decisions made by the McGuinty government were not just "bad," they were, arguably, crimes. But the Liberals have just fought and won an election (in Oct of 2012) and the results, in seats, were modest for all three parties. The Liberals were, barely, reduced to a minority position, but voters did not display any new confidence in either the Progressive Conservatives or the NDP.

 

[Edward Campbell]

And from "The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men  gang aft agley" department we have this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Toronto Star:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/06/11/power_plant_cancellation_documents_secured_from_dalton_mcguintys_office_top_civil_servant_testifies.html

Power plant cancellation documents secured from Dalton McGuinty's office, top civil servant testifies
Top bureaucrats “uncomfortable” about possibility that Dalton McGuinty’s office wasn’t saving power plant cancellation documents.

By: Rob Ferguson
Provincial Politics,

Published on Tue Jun 11 2013

Key bureaucrats who felt “uncomfortable” about the safety of sensitive documents scooped computers from former premier Dalton McGuinty’s staff before he left office, Ontario’s top civil servant testified Tuesday.

“These may be of interest to the Ontario Provincial Police,” cabinet secretary Peter Wallace told a hushed legislative hearing into the $585 million scandal over two power plants cancelled before the 2011 election, saving five Liberal seats.

It was about Jan. 25, the weekend of the Liberal leadership convention at Maple Leaf Gardens, that hard drives, network drives and BlackBerrys were collected and placed in “secure custody,” Wallace added.

His answers came under intense questioning from opposition MPPs concerned thousands of emails on the cancellations went missing to cover up the costs of closing the plants in Mississauga and Oakville, which McGuinty originally claimed was $230 million.

“I would say the civil service was alarmed very strange things were going on with this government — potentially illegal things,” New Democrat MPP Peter Tabuns said after the hearing.
“They took action to prevent further destruction of documents.”

Provincial police are now investigating whether there was any criminal activity in what Information and Privacy Commissioner Ann Cavoukian reported last week were illegal deletions of key power plant emails by top Liberal political staff.

Wallace said premier’s office email accounts were also disabled — not deleted —in late January, raising the possibility some key documents may still be found, contrary to fears expressed in Cavoukian’s scathing report.

“It’s a little bit unusual and it’s not a decision that I made,” Wallace said of the email and computer moves. His comments came a short time before news broke that McGuinty will resign Wednesday as MPP for Ottawa South.

“It was an administrative decision by individuals in (the) cabinet office who felt that during a period of transition (to new premier Kathleen Wynne) the normal processes might not apply,” Wallace continued.

“They were observing there was an intensity associated with this process with which they were uncomfortable, so they simply changed the practice from deleting an email account to disabling an email account.”

Disabling means no one can access the accounts and “it would preserve the structure and integrity of that email account,” Wallace explained.

Cavoukian’s report detailed how former McGuinty chief of staff David Livingston had previously approached Wallace asking about the wiping of computers and was warned about proper preservation of important public policy papers.

“For the chief of staff to the former premier to be so focused on destroying documents there must have been an awful lot in there that had him worried,” Tabuns said.

Wallace also testified email accounts of former McGuinty chief of staff Chris Morley, former energy advisor Sean Mullin and former principal secretary Jameson Steeve were deleted last summer at the request of Livingston’s administrative assistant.

That is “incredibly suspicious,” Tabuns said.

I suspect a lot of people in and around Queen's Park are a bit tense right now.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The current premier bids the former premier adieu ....

Premier Wynne released this statement following the resignation of Ottawa-South MPP Dalton McGuinty:

"For almost 23 years, Dalton McGuinty served the people of Ottawa-South with vision and determination.


He was first elected as a Member of Provincial Parliament in 1990, filling the seat held by his father, Dalton McGuinty Sr., and there is no doubt he inherited a fierce devotion to public service that he shares with each member of his close-knit family.

As Ontario's 24th Premier, he reminded us that government could build us up through investments in education, health care, research and innovation.

He created Ontario's Greenbelt, committed to phasing out coal-generated power and began to address the provincial infrastructure deficit through the introduction of MoveOntario.

He steered this province through a global recession and three general elections. Unbowed by the challenges of his office, he always had a family anecdote, a historical reference and a charming turn-of-phrase to put things in perspective.

Earlier this year, he wrote me a letter encouraging my commitment to conversations in which he quoted the Greek statesman, Pericles, who described continued discussion as an "indispensable preliminary to any wise action at all." I have always valued Dalton's counsel and look forward to our continued discussions as I endeavour to build on his many wise actions.

Dalton has been an unwavering political force since I first entered provincial politics, and I thank him, Terri and their children for the sacrifices they have made. I wish him well in the next phase of his impressive career."

Here's your hat, what's your hurry?

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Glone and Mail, in an article by Adam Radwanski entitled For all his success, McGuinty has made one of the ugliest political exits Ontario has ever seen is less charitable than was Premier Wynne. Adam Radwansk says, "This is the point at which we could be saying generous things about Dalton McGuinty" but " the most successful Ontario Liberal since the Second World War... has made one of the ugliest political exits his province has seen," and "he has managed to give the appearance of being driven from office twice by the same scandal."

It is, all-in-all, a pretty sad display. I opposed most of the things for which Dalton McGuinty stood but I agree he was, mostly, an astute and successful politician; I take no pleasure in the nature of his departure.

 

[The_Falcon]

And from "The best laid schemes o' Mice an' Men  gang aft agley" department we have this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Toronto Star:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/06/11/power_plant_cancellation_documents_secured_from_dalton_mcguintys_office_top_civil_servant_testifies.html

I suspect a lot of people in and around Queen's Park are a bit tense right now.

Good.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Ontario Premier Wynne is expected to call five by-elections today but, according to this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, the Ontario PCs are unlikely to win any of them:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-tories-brace-for-bleak-results-in-by-elections/article12943962/#dashboard/follows/

Ontario Tories brace for bleak results in by-elections

ADAM RADWANSKI
The Globe and Mail

Last updated Wednesday, Jul. 03 2013

A handful of Liberal seats will be up for grabs in less than a month, and Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives don’t expect to win a single one of them.

That, at least, is the word coming out of Ontario’s Official Opposition in advance of Wednesday’s announcement that five by-elections will be held on Aug. 1. And while lowering expectations is a time-honoured tradition for politicians, Mr. Hudak has particularly good reason to do so.

Of the province’s three major party leaders, Mr. Hudak is the likeliest to be left without a positive spin to put on the Tories’ results in the mid-term contests. And if his party is not prepared for that, it could add to unrest about his leadership heading into the next general campaign.

Such a reaction would not be entirely fair. It’s the Liberals who stand to actually lose seats this summer, and they’re all but conceding Dwight Duncan’s old Windsor-Tecumseh seat to the third-party NDP. Yet if they’re able to hold on to three or four – and the Toronto ridings of Scarborough-Guildwood and Etobicoke-Lakeshore should give them a pretty good start – Premier Kathleen Wynne will be able to argue it’s proof of her party’s enduring appeal even after Dalton McGuinty’s ugly exit.

At least a couple of the seats up for grabs, though, are the sort Mr. Hudak would need to take in order to win majority government. And many Tories might understandably struggle to understand why their party couldn’t win a riding like London West, which it held through the Mike Harris era and which is now facing the by-election because former energy minister Chris Bentley was thrown under the proverbial bus during the gas-plants scandal.

A big part of the problem for Mr. Hudak is that, anticipating a general election last spring, the Tories were quicker than the other parties to nominate candidates in each riding. Those flag-bearers would have been perfectly adequate to fill out slates during a provincewide campaign, and might make good MPPs. But by-elections typically place much more emphasis on local profile and organization, and the PC candidates have less of it than the other parties’ recent recruits.

In London, which could shape up as a three-way race, the Liberals have controversially enlisted former teachers’ union president Ken Coran; the NDP is fielding former school board chair Peggy Sattler; the Tories have Ali Chahbar, a young lawyer who also ran for them last time. In Etobicoke and Scarborough, the Liberals are running city Councillor Peter Milczyn and CivicAction CEO Mitzie Hunter; the Tories have police officer Steve Ryan and real-estate agent Ken Kirupa. In Ottawa South, a high-profile candidate might have helped Mr. Hudak score a major victory by claiming Mr. McGuinty’s old riding, but salesman Matt Young does not fit the bill.

Those local candidates, though, won’t get blamed if the Tories get skunked. That honour would more likely go to Mr. Hudak, with critics pointing to his low personal numbers holding his party back – a refrain already common among frustrated supporters of a party that has spent a decade in the political wilderness.

To the extent that leaders matter during by-elections, getting shut out would represent yet more comeuppance for Mr. Hudak’s bad introduction to voters back in 2011. His hope is to properly reintroduce himself to voters during the next general campaign, but the by-elections threaten to make the road up to then even rockier for him.

The inherent unpredictability means the Tories could yet defy their own predictions this summer. Mr. Chahbar, for instance, could take the stage as the hometown hero when the Tories meet for a convention in London this September. But to reduce the risk of that gathering getting ugly, Mr. Hudak will keep any such optimism to himself.

Much as I dislike the Ontario Liberals I do not see either the PCs or, especially, the NDP as viable alternatives.

In my opinion the PCs need a new leader. I supported Mike Harris and his programme, but most Ontarians did not and they will not, not any time soon, elect one of his disciples. The Ontario PCs need a centrist leader ~ they had that choice in 2009 but the "base" chose between two Harris retreads, neither of whom can win.

 

[Edward Campbell]

But Rob Benzie, the Star's Queens Park Bureau chief disagrees, somewhat, in this article which is reproduced under the fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Toronto Star:

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/07/05/ontario_liberals_on_track_to_lose_seats_to_pcs_ndp.bb.html

Ontario Liberals on track to lose seats to PCs, NDP

Robert Benzie Queen's Park Bureau Chief

Published on Fri Jul 05 2013

Premier Kathleen Wynne’s minority Liberals appear on track to lose byelections next month to both the Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats, new polls suggest.

Forum Research surveys show the New Democrats should romp to victory in Windsor-Tecumseh on Aug. 1 while the Tories could win London West — and possibly even former premier Dalton McGuinty’s seat of Ottawa South.

“Windsor and London are pretty much a write-off for the Liberals,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Thursday.

In Windsor-Tecumseh, which had been held by former treasurer Dwight Duncan since 1995, NDP candidate Percy Hatfield, a local councillor, polled at 52 per cent. Tory engineer Robert de Verteuil was at 22 per cent and Liberal business owner Jeewen Gill was at 17 per cent.

The Greens — who have yet to nominate a candidate so Forum used 2011 nominee Justin Levesque in the poll — were at six per cent.

Forum used automated voice-response phone calls to survey 287 people in Windsor-Tecumseh on Wednesday and results are considered accurate to within six percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“Without Dwight Duncan . . . it’s going to be really, really tough,” said Bozinoff.

Things also look bleak for the governing party in London West, represented by former energy minister Chris Bentley for the past decade.

Tory lawyer Ali Chahbar was at 36 per cent, ahead of the NDP’s Peggy Sattler, a Thames Valley District School Board trustee, at 29 per cent, Liberal Ken Coran at 24 per cent, and the Greens’ Gary Brown at eight per cent.

Coran, the former president of the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation, appears to be backfiring as a star candidate, said Bozinoff.

“If someone comes across as being inauthentic, I think it really hurts these days in politics,” the pollster said, noting voters are repelled by “political expediency.”

“That could blow up in the Liberals’ face,” he said in reference to Coran campaigning for the NDP in the September 2012 Kitchener-Waterloo byelection when the teachers’ unions were battling McGuinty.

In London West, Forum polled 471 people on Wednesday and results are considered accurate to within five percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Ottawa South — held by McGuinty for 23 years and by his late father, Dalton, Sr., from 1987 to 1990 — is shaping up as a dogfight.

Liberal John Fraser, the former premier’s long-time constituency aide, was at 42 per cent just ahead of Tory businessman Matt Young at 38 per cent.

The New Democrats haven’t selected their candidate, so Forum polled using Wali Farah, the party’s 2011 nominee and one of two hopefuls vying for the nomination Saturday. Farah was at 17 per cent.

A nomination meeting for the Greens in Ottawa South isn’t set until July 13, so Forum used 2011 candidate James Mihaychuk in the survey and he was at 4 per cent.

Forum polled 404 Ottawa South residents on Wednesday and results are considered accurate to within five percentage points, 19 out of 20.

“It’s possible the Liberals are going to retain that one, but I think they have a fight on their hands,” said Bozinoff. “The other parties know that that riding is winnable.”

Wynne also called byelections in Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Scarborough-Guildwood to choose successors for retired Grits Laural Broten and Margarett Best.

A Forum poll of 442 people in Etobicoke-Lakeshore last Friday — with results accurate to within five percentage points, 19 times out of 20 — had the Liberals at 50 per cent to 25 per cent for Tories, 21 per cent for the New Democrats, and 2 per cent for the Greens.

But that was before Councillor Peter Milczyn was named the Liberal candidate and Deputy Mayor Doug Holyday the PC standard-bearer. The NDP has yet to nominate a candidate while the Greens are fielding Angela Salewsky.

In Scarborough-Guildwood, Mitzie Hunter, the CivicAction chief executive office, is the Liberal candidate while realtor Ken Kirupa, a past president of the Canadian Tamils’ Chamber of Commerce, is running for the Tories. The NDP and Greens have yet to select candidates.

It is still early going, but it is, also, a short campaign. The Liberals probably hope for a low voter turnout and some extra enthusiasm from their base.

I still think that none of Ontario's three major parties is fit to govern. I don't live in any of the five ridings so my views don't really count.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

In my opinion the PCs need a new leader. I supported Mike Harris and his program me, but most Ontarian did not and they will not, not any time soon, elect one of his disciples.

That is a definite,.............I too supported Mike Harris's 'programs', until the morons he surrounded himself with went to work on them. [I call that whole regime, except for Mr. Runciman, "The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight", ala Don Knotts]

Mr. Hudak's problem is that he doesn't need to surround himself with stupid, he radiates it enough all by himself.  I'm glad my riding is not one of the by-elections, there is no way I could vote Conservative as long as Mr. Hudak remains at the helm.


EDIT: forgot the "no".