Ontario Election

[a_majoor]

The Ontario election will be interesting. Ontarians seem to vote for one party Federally and another Provincially, but eight years of the current Provincial Liberals have tanked Ontario's economy and turned the province into a "Have Not" province receiving Federal Equalization payments.

Now on the eve of an election, the McGuinty government does this:

http://toronto-tory.blogspot.com/2011/09/dalton-mcguinty-introduces-secret-tax.html

Dalton McGuinty introduces secret tax right before election

We all know it's in Dalton McGuinty's nature to raise taxes. And we all know it's in his nature to lie about taxes.

But I don't think anybody saw this blunder coming. Right before the provincial election, Tim Hudak revealed today that Dalton McGuinty has introduced another secret tax on smart meters.

As if smart meters weren't bad enough - they've increased hydro rates by 150% and they cost every household $200 to install - but now, Dalton McGuinty has added a new tax on smart meters that will cost families $132 million. This is literally a tax on McGuinty's tax machines.

To make matters worse, just like eco-taxes, the HST, and the health premium, this is a secret tax - McGuinty kept it entirely hidden. In fact, the Ontario PCs revealed that the only place this secret tax is mentioned is in the footnote in the Public Accounts document, which is four volumes of 300+ pages of government spending. Unbelievably, McGuinty couldn't even wait until after the election to raise taxes again.

Take a look for yourself and let me know what you think about McGuinty's latest tax grab.

 

[observor 69]

Ah yes a totally unbiased source. 

 

[The Bread Guy]

<resource tangent>
Here's a page o' links I've pulled together to keep track of the election (my focus is in my backyard in the north), but there's also some decent predictor/poll tracking links - any suggested add on's appreciated.
</resource tangent>

 

[Edward Campbell]

Despite Dalton McWhimpy McGuity's manifest weaknesses the polls say that PC leader Tim Hudak is only running neck and neck ~ possibly because Hudak is a clown who offers bad policy choices, some worse than the Liberals' offerings.

Ontario Tories made a poor choice in 2009, not necessarily in rejecting John Tory but, rather, in selecting a leader who is too far from the Ontario mainstream, the Leslie Frost, John Robarts, Bill Davis Ontario mainstream which still exists. Miller, Petersen, Rae, Harris, Eves, McGuinty and Hudak represent the swings of a pendulum - sometimes (Rae and McGuinty) too far to the left, others (Miller and Hudak) too far to the right. I think Ontarians want to drift back to the safe, comfortable middle, neither Hudak nor McGuinty really wants to be there but McGuinty is, at least, the devil they know.

After eight years tossing McGuinty out should be child's play; that Tim Hudak is having trouble doing that says more about him and the Ontario PC Party machine than it does about Ontario politics.

Maybe, I hope, Hudak can prevail; if so it will be because Ontarians are, properly, sick and tired of Dalton McGuinty, not because Tim Hudak has anything to offer. By the way, I'm a paid up, card carrying Ontario PC Party member and I will vote PC on election day, despite the party's 'leader.'

 

[The Bread Guy]

Ontario Tories made a poor choice in 2009, not necessarily in rejecting John Tory but, rather, in selecting a leader who is too far from the Ontario mainstream, the Leslie Frost, John Robarts, Bill Davis Ontario mainstream which still exists .... After eight years tossing McGuinty out should be child's play; that Tim Hudak is having trouble doing that says more about him and the Ontario PC Party machine than it does about Ontario politics.

In fact, some of the party are already starting to at least nibble at their young ....

Every family has its spats, Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak said Wednesday after former PC premier Ernie Eves ripped the party over what he said was the shabby treatment of long-serving MPP Norm Sterling.

“It’s tough when you have a contest within the family,” Hudak said at an Etobicoke campaign event.

“We have a party where you have to win the local nomination, that even sitting incumbents can be challenged. And it’s tough when you lose somebody you’ve been sitting around the table with,” Hudak said.

Sterling lost a bitter nomination fight with libertarian candidate Jack MacLaren for his Ottawa-area riding, ending more than 30 years as a member of provincial parliament.

MacLaren is an ally of MPP Randy Hillier, whose backing of Hudak clinched the leadership for him, and there has been grumbling Hudak could have done more for the veteran Sterling.

Eves, Ontario premier from 2002-03, was quoted recently lamenting Sterling’s ouster.

“The treatment that Norm got from his own party was not very polite, was not fair, it was not loyal, it was not compassionate, it was not even and it was not honest,” Eves was quoted as saying by yourottawaregion.com ....

The Liberals, meanwhile, are painting the Tories with a broad brush as Tea Party-ists....

Tim Hudak's campaign is importing their campaign strategy from the right wing extremist Tea Party movement, bringing in strategist Michael Prell.

Prell, the owner of Sterling Communications, sells himself as a "strategist for the Tea Party Patriots" and lists Hudak campaign manager Mark Spiro as his "best friend and business partner." (Acknowledgements, Underdogma, BenBella Books, 2011)

Before joining the Hudak campaign, Prell worked with many Tea Party politicians, including recently receiving a book endorsement from Michelle Bachmann.

The extreme right wing Tea Party movement in the US is routinely exposed for lying, being incoherent, vacuous and deeply divisive.

Yesterday former PC Premier Ernie Eves decried that Hudak's PCs are becoming "the Tea Party version of Ontario politics," pointing to how Hudak and right wing extremist MPP Randy Hillier ousted long-time progressive Conservative MPP Norm Sterling.

As usual, Hudak tried to weasel out of responding to Eves' charge.

Spin check:  saying criticism is "directed at those few individuals who decided that the Tea Party version of Ontario politics would be good in that particular riding" =/= "PCs are becoming "the Tea Party version of Ontario politics" ".

My  :2c: - unless Hudak improves, based on ERC's "devil we know" observation, Liberal minority for Ontario.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

................and in the last Federal election, everyone was polling a minority CPC or even a minority Lib gov't right up to the final night. That should have told people to quit listening to polls. :

I speak to a broad spectrum of people down here and in the most part, they hate McGuinty and can't wait to toss him out. His Finance Minister, Duncan, has done nothing except throw money around, take credit for projects he opposed and launched nothing but ad hominem attacks on his opponents. No substance or plan. McGuinty's other shining star and trench fighter "Wonder Woman" S. Puppatello has already quit politics and isn't running again. They're out of gas already.

But I only guess, just like the polls...........and I'm about as unbiased and scientific as they are too

 

[frank1515]

I actually have no idea who I'm going to vote for this election... Like Mr. Campbell stated prior, it's either the Devil we know or take a chance on the one we don't know. In any case, it's going to make for an interesting election night.

 

[a_majoor]

Ah yes a totally unbiased source. 

The Public Accounts document is biased?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Latest CTV/Globe/CP24/Nanos Poll attached - folks starting to get tired of Dalton + some Hudak mistakes = ~1:4 respondents saying they're not sure who the most trustworthy leader is + ~1:4 respondents saying they're not sure who has the best vision for Ontario...

.... Ontario Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for provincially, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from September 1st, 2011 (n=917).
*Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.

Ontario (n=415 committed voters)

Liberal 38.1% (+6.2)
Progressive Conservative 34.7% (-0.7)
NDP 24.3% (+1.5)
Green 2.7% (-1.4)
*Undecided 18.0% (+9.2)

Leadership Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Dalton McGuinty is the leader of the Liberal Party, Tim Hudak is the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, Andrea Horwath is the leader of the NDP, and Mike Schreiner is the leader of the Green Party. Which of the provincial leaders would you best describe as: the most trustworthy, and the leader with the best vision for Ontario? (n=507)

The numbers in parentheses denote the change from August 13th, 2011 (n=1,000).

The Most Trustworthy Leader (n=507)
Dalton McGuinty 22.6% (-5.5)
Tim Hudak 19.3% (-3.5)
Andrea Horwath 11.1% (-2.5)
Mike Schreiner 3.2% (+0.5)
Unsure 24.1% (+10.0)
None of them 19.7% (+1.0)


The Leader with the Best Vision for Ontario's Future (n=507)
Dalton McGuinty 25.5% (-3.3)
Tim Hudak 19.5% (-6.3)
Andrea Horwath 12.6% (-0.3)
Mike Schreiner 2.9% (+0.2)
Unsure 26.8% (+10)
None of them 12.6% (-0.4) ....

Methodology:  Between September 10th and 11th, 2011, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 507 Ontarians 18 years and older. A random telephone survey of 507 Ontarians is accurate plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.  For 415 committed voters, the margin of error is accurate plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

 

[a_majoor]

Odd little aside:

A friend of mine is running for the Freedom Party as a protest against the PC Party, which seems incapable of presenting a bold platform or making any sort of principled arguments about anything. (She used to be quite active in the PC Riding association, and has been quite annoyed at how the party has been running things as far back as when John Tory became the leader). Apparently many PC supporters have similar feelings (although have not jumped the fence) and this lack of support will probably only translate to a PC minority government.

Aside 2: The Freedom Party is actually running enough candidates that they could form a majority government if everyone was elected. Not bad for a party which traditionally could only field a handfull of candidates. While I hardly expect this to happen, it is indicative of the growing power of new ideas and parites in the provincial political spectrum. Consider the Saskatchewan Party, or the growth of the Wild Rose Alliance Party in Alberta.

 

[X Royal]

I'll be amazed if it's not a minority government with the NDP being the Party that will hold the deciding vote (or influence on the presented policy) by deciding if they side with the Liberals or the PC's on an issue by issue basis.

 

[Edward Campbell]

As of today I'm guessing - and it's a WAG (Wild Assed Guess), not even a SWAG (Scientific Wild Assed Guess) - it will be a Liberal minority propped up for four years of big spending on special interests by the NDP.

 

[The Bread Guy]

As of today I'm guessing - and it's a WAG (Wild Assed Guess), not even a SWAG (Scientific Wild Assed Guess) - it will be a Liberal minority propped up for four years of big spending on special interests by the NDP.

Agree with this, at this point (at the WAG level of certainty as well), because voters writ large may be thinking:
1)  (rightly or wrongly) "Hmmmm, isn't this a Mike Harris kinda guy?  I remember hospitals closing.", and
2)  "Better the devil I know."

 

[Rifleman62]

McGuinty has caught on to the Quebec ponzi (well maybe not ponzi) scheme: spend, spend, and more spending as the greedy, I'm alright Jack electorate soak it up. Bingo a have not province gets in deeper, and the ROC (read AB and SK) pay the bills.

 

[a_majoor]

Using tax dollars for political advertizing should be made a criminal offence:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/65183002/Taxpayer-Dollars-Funding-Dalton-McGuinty-s-Advertising-Campaign

Taxpayers’ Dollars Funding Dalton McGuinty’s Advertising Campaign

“We will ban self - promotional government advertising”
(Dalton McGuinty, 2003 Ontario Liberal Party Platform, Page 15)

While Ontario families are struggling to make ends meet because of Dalton McGuinty’s tax grabs and skyrocketing hydro bills, today Ontario families learned they are also footing the bill for Dalton McGuinty to funnel millions to an organization–the Ontario Sustainable Energy Association–that is running ads in support of the Liberal’s re-election campaign.

The Ontario Sustainable Energy Association has received the following in taxpayers’ funds:

$3 million for the “Community Power Fund” from then Energy Minister and Windsor -Tecumseh Liberal MPP Dwight Duncan.
(Community Power Fund Press Release, September 17, 2007)

$1.5 million from the Ontario Trillium Foundation.
(National Post, August 18, 2010)

$100,000 from the Ministry of the Environment
(National Post, August 18, 2010)

$45,000 from the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs’ Rural Economic Development Program
(OSEA 2009 and 2010 Annual Reports)

$15,000 from the Ministry of Natural Resources
(OSEA 2009 Annual Report)

Undisclosed amounts from the Ontario Power Authority, Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Aboriginal Affairs,Hydro One and local distribution companies.
(National Post, August 18, 2010)

Now, the Ontario Sustainable Energy Association is spending $200,000 in television advertising to promote Dalton McGuinty’s core message.

(Link to Television Ads)
“On election day support those who support the green energy and economy act”
(Ontario Sustainable Energy Association television advertisement)

“The green energy and economy act and the feed-in-tariff are creating jobs.”
(Ontario Sustainable Energy Association television advertisement)

Sound like anyone you know?

“At the heart of the Green Energy Act is North America’s most comprehensive feed-in tariff program (FIT),
which is sparking the development of renewable energy projects… In 2010, the Green Energy Act alone created 13,000 of those jobs.”
(Ontario Liberal Party Campaign Website, The Ontario Way)

Dalton McGuinty and Dwight Duncan need to explain why the organization they’ve given millions of taxpayer’s
money to is now funding television advertisements in support of their re-election campaign.
Contact:
Pema Lhalungpa | 647-925-2448 | pema.lhalungpa@timhudak.ca

 

[Haletown]

As of today I'm guessing - and it's a WAG (Wild Assed Guess), not even a SWAG (Scientific Wild Assed Guess) - it will be a Liberal minority propped up for four years of big spending on special interests by the NDP.

In that case, we should all start praying for Ontario because that is a recipe to get screwed.

Really, really screwed.

 

[Edward Campbell]

In that case, we should all start praying for Ontario because that is a recipe to get screwed.

Really, really screwed.

Most assuredly; a PC majority is the best outcome; a PC minority, supported by the Liberals is next best; then a Liberal majority; and, finally, the worst possible outcomes are Liberal minority supported by the NDP followed by, the worst of all worlds, a NDP majority and similar variations.

But, today, my worst case guess still stands, because:

 

[observor 69]

Seeing as we are into personal opinions:

NDP Andrea Horwath - this would be a repeat of the last NDP government, not enough talent in the caucus to form a competent government.

Progressive (oxymoron) Conservative Party, Tim Hudak - If such a thing as a truly "progressive" conservative party came along it might attract a lot of Ontario voters. But the Hudak platform is unfortunately regressive.

Liberal McGuinty - Wins by default

My :2c:

 

[Edward Campbell]

I agree that Hudak is the a problem.

Ontarians might vote for a right of centre federal party but they crave a centrist provincial government.

I think we, Conservatives, might be doing a lot better right now if we had selected Christine Elliott as leader, but she was too moderate for the hard core, hard right Tory activist base and so we got Hudak. It is the same problem that infects US politics: how can an extreme, loyalist party base select a candidate who will appeal to the independents and even a few of the other party's voters?

 

[observor 69]

Oct. 6 election is too close to call

The Ontario election is too close to call after Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak’s rocky campaign start has enabled Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty to close the gap, a new Toronto Star-Angus Reid poll suggests.

The Conservatives, who held a 20-point lead in an Angus Reid survey in May, now sits at 36 per cent with the Liberals at 32 per cent.

The New Democrats had 26 per cent and the Green Party trailed at 6 per cent.

“I wouldn’t say (the Tories) have plateaued, but they’ve stalled a little bit,” Jaideep Mukerji, managing director at Angus Reid, said Friday.

More at link:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1055420--oct-6-election-is-too-close-to-call?bn=1