CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[suffolkowner]

If this is what’s actually in place now, it’s relevant.

i dont think it is thats why i said its a list of tariffs that have ever existed. I saw someone respond to this list before assuming that random internet person was accurate and honest

Find the tariff applicable for your product | Canada Tariff Finder

Canada Tariff Finder enables Canadian importers and exporters to check tariffs for specific goods and markets (focus on countries in a Free Trade Agreement with Canada).

www.tariffinder.ca

I’m sure that supply management is a huge component of all of that.

CUSMA is where that should be negotiated and discussed just like last time.

This is just grasping at straws to support Trump’s unprovoked position against Canada.

PP has already said he supports supply management so if he is the next PM don’t expect much on that front. And the LPC if they can get a Hail Mary upset win won’t be any different on that.

I find the supply management thing overdone. Are we going to subsidize our dairy, chicken, turkey farmers like the states if we get rid of supply management or do nothing?

 

[QV]

Hey I’m just trying to understand everything. Im not going to arbitrarily dismiss supply management.

 

[Quirky]

View attachment 91335

Canada doesn't seem like a real country, just colonies masquerading as provinces.

 

[PrairieFella]

Canada doesn't seem like a real country, just colonies masquerading as provinces.

And what makes you say that? What gives you that indication?

 

[lenaitch]

whats the deal there? Too hard to load it to go across the ocean for some reason? I remember when Grants went under in Ontario due to the US crunch and thought you think someone else could use the wood somewhere?

Well, it did cost him his little house on the lake.

 

[suffolkowner]

Well, it did cost him his little house on the lake.

didnt some asian crime lord buy it?

 

[lenaitch]

To add to what I mentioned. Looks like they are looking at three things specifically.

Reducing exceptions found in the CFTA.
labour movement between provinces. (Ie certifications and professional designations being recognized) and;
Recognizing rules from other jurisdictions

Good start if they can get those done in short order.

I've tried to find a definitive, copyable list of the exemptions but no joy. There are apparently about 140, some federal. My understanding, not all are actual prohibitions or restrictions to the flow of goods, but things such a labour mobility, certifications, etc. There is also some federal legislation, like the Importation of Intoxicating Liquors Act.

There are also regulatory differences depending on what you are trying to do. If you want to make and sell jam at the local farmers markets, your kitchen needs to be provincially approved. If you want to sell it to an out-of-province customer, it needs to be federally approved. Maybe not a big deal for an industrial-level facility like E.D. Smith, but a significant problem for small, craft-level businesses.

I doubt the US is a shining light on the hill with inter-state trade. I doubt a plumber in New York could simply pick up tools in California. I don't know what it's like now but, in the past, their inter-state liquor law were very parochial.

 

[Remius]

I've tried to find a definitive, copyable list of the exemptions but no joy. There are apparently about 140, some federal. My understanding, not all are actual prohibitions or restrictions to the flow of goods, but things such a labour mobility, certifications, etc. There is also some federal legislation, like the Importation of Intoxicating Liquors Act.

There are also regulatory differences depending on what you are trying to do. If you want to make and sell jam at the local farmers markets, your kitchen needs to be provincially approved. If you want to sell it to an out-of-province customer, it needs to be federally approved. Maybe not a big deal for an industrial-level facility like E.D. Smith, but a significant problem for small, craft-level businesses.

I doubt the US is a shining light on the hill with inter-state trade. I doubt a plumber in New York could simply pick up tools in California. I don't know what it's like now but, in the past, their inter-state liquor law were very parochial.

Yeah, which is why the third item “recognize rules from other jurisdictions” is a good step.

 

[Kirkhill]

After securing a long term cash flow from Japan by selling it LNG Trump has now secured another cash flow from India selling it oil.

Trump and Modi agree to make U.S. top supplier of oil, replacing Russia

U.S. to sell F-35 to India, extradite Mumbai bombing suspect

asia.nikkei.com

Modi hails Trump ‘mega-partnership’ as leaders agree US-India energy deal

New announcement comes after Trump attacked India over climate for American businesses

www.independent.co.uk

India is also in the market for F35s.

....

So Trump is now selling our oil and gas to Japan and India..... still no business case.

 

[brihard]

After securing a long term cash flow from Japan by selling it LNG Trump has now secured another cash flow from India selling it oil.

Trump and Modi agree to make U.S. top supplier of oil, replacing Russia

U.S. to sell F-35 to India, extradite Mumbai bombing suspect

asia.nikkei.com

Modi hails Trump ‘mega-partnership’ as leaders agree US-India energy deal

New announcement comes after Trump attacked India over climate for American businesses

www.independent.co.uk

India is also in the market for F35s.

....

So Trump is now selling our oil and gas to Japan and India..... still no business case.

Any additional exports of U.S. oil and gas will tend towards necessitating continued imports from Canada so that supply and demand balance out. That simply belies the process of tariffs on these products; the U.S. is leveraging comparative advantage in goods and services, and profiting off the more efficient allocation of those goods permitted when tariff barriers are reduced or eliminated.

 

[suffolkowner]

After securing a long term cash flow from Japan by selling it LNG Trump has now secured another cash flow from India selling it oil.

Trump and Modi agree to make U.S. top supplier of oil, replacing Russia

U.S. to sell F-35 to India, extradite Mumbai bombing suspect

asia.nikkei.com

Modi hails Trump ‘mega-partnership’ as leaders agree US-India energy deal

New announcement comes after Trump attacked India over climate for American businesses

www.independent.co.uk

India is also in the market for F35s.

....

So Trump is now selling our oil and gas to Japan and India..... still no business case.

selling F35's to India seems like a mistaken move IMO

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I hope this is in the right spot. This guy has some very valid points, especially about Trump’s tariffs. He's putting them on everyone. Not just us. He's believes he's protecting the US. His number one job.

76K views · 23K reactions | Watch till the end…. My unpopular opinion on the 51st state situation. What do you think? 👇🏼 | Kaylor Betts | Top 1% Podcast Host

Watch till the end…. My unpopular opinion on the 51st state situation. What do you think? 👇🏼.

www.facebook.com

 

[Remius]

selling F35's to India seems like a mistaken move IMO

What could go wrong…

 

[daftandbarmy]

Like an official list? Likely not. And I bet there are even differences in whatever list between certain provinces.

But regulatory differences are and can be trade barriers.

Heck, language laws are trade barriers

There are thousands of them and I'm guessing the lack of a 'list' might be one of the issues

Results for Canadians - Intergovernmental Affairs - Canada.ca

Types of trade barriers that exist.

www.canada.ca

 

[Remius]

There are thousands of them and I'm guessing the lack of a 'list' might be one of the issues

Results for Canadians - Intergovernmental Affairs - Canada.ca

Types of trade barriers that exist.

www.canada.ca

The good thing is that it looks like the three things Anand is looking to deal with, with the provinces might actually hit a lot of them.

 

[Good2Golf]

Any additional exports of U.S. oil and gas will tend towards necessitating continued imports from Canada so that supply and demand balance out. That simply belies the process of tariffs on these products; the U.S. is leveraging comparative advantage in goods and services, and profiting off the more efficient allocation of those goods permitted when tariff barriers are reduced or eliminated.

It would be interesting to know the grade of oil being sold to India - WCS or WTI?

Canadians should be hearing from both Poilievre and the next PM, what the intent to export WCS and gas is. We are a CAD short and a decade late at this point.

Could also find out the price they agreed and apply an export tariff on outgoing WCS that makes US have to sell its own WTI…

 

[Brad Sallows]

I don't see any Liberal politicians smart mouthing Trump or the Maga Conservatives anymore, can't imagine why

But really, whether it's Poilievre or PM Careny, one of them needs to tell Trump to STFU about the 51st state crap and Tariffs. If he's going to drop Tariffs then do it already. Just stop mentioning it every 6 hours.

Our own people ought to stop doing that, too. Talk less about "51st state" nonsense, and more about which internal trade restraints they have actually removed, instead of hinting that something might be done about them "Tuesday fer sure".

Politicians like to get out in front of a parade to embellish their own electoral fortunes, and the anti-tariff, pro-Canada parade is an obvious and commendable one. It's clear that the "crisis" is being exploited as a political "opportunity" by some.

 

[daftandbarmy]

The good thing is that it looks like the three things Anand is looking to deal with, with the provinces might actually hit a lot of them.

And then there's the lingering impacts of NAFTA, which will take years to unravel if we attempt to build stronger west-east trade .... looks like John Turner was right:

How Canada Got Hooked on the U.S. Economy​

On Jan. 2, 1988, U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney signed a revolutionary free trade deal that removed tariffs on goods and services across the world’s longest border.

The treaty was not controversial in the U.S., but many Canadians feared it would eventually lead to a loss of political independence. During the election later that year, Mulroney had to fend off accusations that he sold Canada out.


“We built a country east and west and north,” said Liberal leader John Turner during the key TV debate. “We built it on an infrastructure that deliberately resisted the continental pressure of the United States. For 120 years we’ve done it. With one signature of a pen, you’ve reversed that, thrown us into the north-south influence of the United States and will reduce us ... to a colony of the United States, because when the economic levers go, political independence is sure to follow.”

Mulroney handily won the election, and the free trade deal survived. But 36 years later, as President Donald Trump repeatedly threatens to make Canada the 51st state, it is starting to look like Turner had a point.

How Canada Got Hooked on the U.S. Economy

Canada is incredibly reliant on access to U.S. markets. It didn't have to be this way, writes Stephen Maher.

time.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Why is Trump pushing foreign sales so hard? For the same reason that he is pushing tariffs.

The real reason Trump is waging a global trade war

Underlying the US president’s bombardment of tariff threats is an uncomfortable truth: America needs cash

www.telegraph.co.uk

In the middle of Donald Trump’s tornado of tariff announcements, policy analysts have been clinging to a single hope.

There is a perceived wisdom that the US president is using the higher charges primarily as a threat designed to extract concessions from his trading partners. Or in other words, that his bark will be worse than his bite.

Trump certainly is using tariffs as a negotiating tactic to bring world leaders to their knees. But optimists are overlooking a second truth: the US president is also desperate for cash.

America’s public finances are shot. The deficit is the highest since at least 1975 outside of a crisis period. Debt is on track to grow at double the rate of the economy in the decades ahead.

1975 was the era of the Oil Crisis and Nixon pulling the Dollar off the gold standard completely. Since then everybody has been forced to bet on the strength of the US economy.

The US federal deficit in the 2025 fiscal year will be $1.9 trillion, or 6.2pc of GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) – not too far off from double the 3.8pc average over the last 50 years.

It is a problem that is not going away. By 2035, the deficit will be $2.7 trillion, or 6.1pc of GDP.

“The starting point is that the US fiscal position is pretty awful,” says James Knightley, chief international economist at ING bank.

The deficit means borrowing will keep rising. The Government Office of Accountability (GAO) warned in February that the US government faces “an unsustainable fiscal future”.

By 2027, debt will hit an all-time high of 106pc of GDP. “If unaddressed, it will grow more than twice as fast as the economy and reach 200pc of GDP by 2047,” the GAO said.

“All the literature talks about the US having this exorbitant privilege – the ability to finance very large deficits at low interest rates with a strong currency. The truth is that none of us know when this runs out.

“But we know that we’re playing with fire because we know it’s not infinite,” says Brooks. “The fact that markets have not yet priced this does not mean that they won’t price it tomorrow.”

Even Trump will need to kowtow to bond vigilantes.

Dollar Rises as Trump Vows More Tariffs to Support US Growth

The dollar climbed to the strongest level in two months as former President Donald Trump defended proposals to dramatically raise tariffs on foreign imports.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Trump's treasury pick vows to protect dollar's reserve status

Treasury nominee details economic reforms, trade tariffs, and tax priorities for new administration

www.wealthprofessional.ca

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-looking-currency-manipulation-tariff-row-treasury-chief-says-2025-02-14/

...

So, to improve his balance sheets he is looking at increasing revenue by selling hydrocarbons (both his and ours), and by imposing tariffs.
He also aims to improve the US as a destination for investment by lowering taxes.
He intends to offset the costs of tariffs and lower taxes by adjusting the strength of the dollar.
He has quite the balancing act if he wants to keep the markets happy.

Meanwhile - It wouldn't be out of character to try to impose countervailing costs on competitive economies, especially the costs that he might feel have been unfairly borne by US consumers. 5% on defence wouldn't be far off the post-WW2 average cost carried by the US since WW2.




....

Tariffs, trade agreements (CUSMA) and defence are all linked and all will be part of the final Trump bargain. A strong man can sit back and wait to be hit, secure in the knowledge he can absorb the punch. A weak man needs to manoeuvre more aggressively.

 

[brihard]

It would be interesting to know the grade of oil being sold to India - WCS or WTI?

Canadians should be hearing from both Poilievre and the next PM, what the intent to export WCS and gas is. We are a CAD short and a decade late at this point.

Could also find out the price they agreed and apply an export tariff on outgoing WCS that makes US have to sell its own WTI…

I don’t believe India has any refineries set up to process heavier WCS? It’s not interchangeable.