CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Kirkhill]

selling F35's to India seems like a mistaken move IMO

Unless you believe, like Musk and the CEO of Anduril, Brian Schimpf, and its founder Palmer Luckey, that there are better ways of doing things.

 

[Brad Sallows]

How Canada Got Hooked on the U.S. Economy

They got hooked on our products, too. The more intertwined, the harder it is for either country to try to take advantage of the other without hurting itself. This consequence buttresses the argument for letting Americans feel the damage inflicted on them by Trump and take their own corrective measures, while we refrain from imposing more damage on either them or ourselves.

Trading with a neighbouring country across a long lengthwise land border to which most of our population is close is always going to be an obviously preferable option irrespective of trade agreements.

 

[brihard]

selling F35's to India seems like a mistaken move IMO

I still doubt it would happen - there are far too many grown ups at the table when it comes to foreign military sales - but the fact that Trump would even get to the point of saying it out loud is concerning. It’s a truly idiotic notion and one that never should have even been on the radar (lol sorry!).

 

[Kirkhill]

Hegseth Says DOD to Reform Foreign Military Sales Process

Learn about the plans by the Department of Defense to reform the foreign military sales process, according to Sec. Pete Hegseth.

executivegov.com

“We need to reform that process so it’s quicker, so a request today isn’t delivered seven years from now but three years from now with less red tape and with the most efficient and effective technology possible.”

In 2023, Congress, the Pentagon and the State Department created a tiger team to accelerate the process and remove barriers. In June 2023, a memo ordered the agencies to implement the tiger team’s recommendations.

These include improving the Defense Department’s understanding of ally and partner country requirements, providing them with relevant priority capabilities, and increasing the efficiency of technology release review processes.

Despite efforts by the tiger team to streamline sales approval, the challenge of the industry’s manufacturing capacity not keeping up with orders remained.

...

If there is a willing buyer, the US is a willing seller.

 

[brihard]

Hegseth Says DOD to Reform Foreign Military Sales Process

Learn about the plans by the Department of Defense to reform the foreign military sales process, according to Sec. Pete Hegseth.

executivegov.com

...

If there is a willing buyer, the US is a willing seller.

Depends on how much they’re worried about safeguarding cutting edge technology and capabilities.

 

[Kirkhill]

Depends on how much they’re worried about safeguarding cutting edge technology and capabilities.

Agreed. But there is a 400 lb gorilla in the room with a wrecking ball and he is on a mission.

As the Anduril CEO was explaining - the intent is to break the 30 year procurement cycle and convince DOD and Congress to start buying off the shelf on a sub-5 year horizon.

 

[Good2Golf]

I don’t believe India has any refineries set up to process heavier WCS? It’s not interchangeable.

Exactly, which if we include that factor as we do our Estimate, leads us to deduce that America is likely assuming…yup…assuming that its flow of WCS into its own refineries will continue unabated for domestic consumption and its own WTI will be what it sells to India, Japan and others at significantly higher profit margins. Following this deduction leads us to assess our own course of action to include not only as rapidly as possible expanding our capacity to ship WCS to tidewater, but also consider a hasty development of pre/semi-refining in AB or BC or MB, etc., so that the product shipped to tidewater or refined at tidewater is essentially equivalent to WTI, so Canadian oil is available both as WCS to this nations that can further refine heavy crude, as well as to those nations more used to importing WTI and similar lighter crude oil.

 

[brihard]

Exactly, which if we include that factor as we do our Estimate, leads us to deduce that America is likely assuming…yup…assuming that its flow of WCS into its own refineries will continue unabated for domestic consumption and its own WTI will be what it sells to India, Japan and others at significantly higher profit margins. Following this deduction leads us to assess our own course of action to include not only as rapidly as possible expanding our capacity to ship WCS to tidewater, but also consider a hasty development of pre/semi-refining in AB or BC or MB, etc., so that the product shipped to tidewater or refined at tidewater is essentially equivalent to WTI, so Canadian oil is available both as WCS to this nations that can further refine heavy crude, as well as to those nations more used to importing WTI and similar lighter crude oil.

Is it viable to upgrade WCS via refining to something chemically comparable to WTI? Like, could we pipe it to coastal refineries, turn it into better quality oil, and ship that overseas as a substitutable product for WTI? I think that’s what you’re describing but just want to clarify. Obviously this would be very long term, but I expect that, in general, there will be an appetite for alternatives to U.S. supply… And we would benefit from alternatives to U.S. demand.

 

[Kirkhill]

Exactly, which if we include that factor as we do our Estimate, leads us to deduce that America is likely assuming…yup…assuming that its flow of WCS into its own refineries will continue unabated for domestic consumption and its own WTI will be what it sells to India, Japan and others at significantly higher profit margins. Following this deduction leads us to assess our own course of action to include not only as rapidly as possible expanding our capacity to ship WCS to tidewater, but also consider a hasty development of pre/semi-refining in AB or BC or MB, etc., so that the product shipped to tidewater or refined at tidewater is essentially equivalent to WTI, so Canadian oil is available both as WCS to this nations that can further refine heavy crude, as well as to those nations more used to importing WTI and similar lighter crude oil.

And more coal mines and coal trains .... Still lots of coal buyers out there.

The global coal market is expected to level off in the coming years due to a rise in renewable energy. However, coal trade volumes reached an all-time high in 2023.

Coal Consumption​

Over the past decade, coal consumption has declined in developed countries, and grown in developing countries.

Within the 38 countries that comprise the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), coal consumption has declined by an average annual rate of 3.9% over the past decade. In non-OECD countries, coal has grown at an average annual rate of 1.4%.

Consumption in the European Union (EU) has shown the same downward trend as the OECD. Over the past decade, EU coal consumption has declined at an average annual rate of 4.2%. But, in 2022, coal consumption in the EU reversed direction and grew by 2.0%. This was a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and EU countries replacing Russian natural gas with coal.

The net result was a global increase in coal consumption to the second-highest level on record, only 0.01% below the record level set in 2014. Essentially, despite all the world’s efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, coal consumption is as high as it has ever been.

Global Coal Consumption Returns To Record Levels

Global coal consumption has surged in the past two years and is now back to record levels. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a primary culprit.

www.forbes.com

...

When Trump says he has everything he needs I think he means it. He can power his economy for decades on his domestic gas, oil and coal. He will sell what he can at the best price available and power his own economy with the least cost solution.

The Green Transition has been delayed. At least until the day that China, India and Indonesia stop using coal.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Is it viable to upgrade WCS via refining to something chemically comparable to WTI? Like, could we pipe it to coastal refineries, turn it into better quality oil, and ship that overseas as a substitutable product for WTI? I think that’s what you’re describing but just want to clarify. Obviously this would be very long term, but I expect that, in general, there will be an appetite for alternatives to U.S. supply… And we would benefit from alternatives to U.S. demand.

I suppose if we're going to build a refinery, we might as well go all the way.

 

[daftandbarmy]

And more coal mines and coal trains .... Still lots of coal buyers out there.




View attachment 91346

Global Coal Consumption Returns To Record Levels

Global coal consumption has surged in the past two years and is now back to record levels. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a primary culprit.

www.forbes.com

...

When Trump says he has everything he needs I think he means it. He can power his economy for decades on his domestic gas, oil and coal. He will sell what he can at the best price available and power his own economy with the least cost solution.

The Green Transition has been delayed. At least until the day that China, India and Indonesia stop using coal.

And that's good news for Canada!

Coal facts - Natural Resources Canada

natural-resources.canada.ca

 

[Good2Golf]

Is it viable to upgrade WCS via refining to something chemically comparable to WTI? Like, could we pipe it to coastal refineries, turn it into better quality oil, and ship that overseas as a substitutable product for WTI? I think that’s what you’re describing but just want to clarify. Obviously this would be very long term, but I expect that, in general, there will be an appetite for alternatives to U.S. supply… And we would benefit from alternatives to U.S. demand.

Not totally sure, but worth consideration, particularly if partial refinement can be implemented in less time than a fully developed heavy crude refinery capability.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Shut down the pipeline going south for a couple of weeks and call it preventative maintenance.

See how they deal with it.

Or blackout the eastern seaboard for a day. Turn it back on for the night.

We're Canadians, we can say 'Sorry' with a straight face and get away with it.

 

[CBH99]

 

[Fishbone Jones]

But let's increase our trade with China to get away from the States

(sarcastic rant on) I wonder, if Hellfires and SOF troops decend on the cartels in Mexico, if we can get them to do it here. The Canadian people are completely incapable of holding our government to account. Whether disinterested, ignorant or just plain stupid, we seem dumbfounded when we need solutions. Perhaps it's time to get out the tiki lamps and garden implements, load the trucks with WCS and poultry coverings. Maybe a decent into anarchy for a couple of months will smarten people up.

The liberals and Laurentien Elites I can find myself expecting this from. If the RCMP get implicated, I hate to imagine how that will turn out. This is not a matter of a few people being involved, the whole force will suffer. They will be looked on as a Mexican or Salvadoran police force. Hang up the Red Serge. (sarcastic rant off)

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I suppose if we're going to build a refinery, we might as well go all the way.

Yup. And build about ten more cookie cutter ones at the same time also. Cheaper in quantity and identical parts

 

[CBH99]

But let's increase our trade with China to get away from the States

(sarcastic rant on) I wonder, if Hellfires and SOF troops decend on the cartels in Mexico, if we can get them to do it here. The Canadian people are completely incapable of holding our government to account. Whether disinterested, ignorant or just plain stupid, we seem dumbfounded when we need solutions. Perhaps it's time to get out the tiki lamps and garden implements, load the trucks with WCS and poultry coverings. Maybe a decent into anarchy for a couple of months will smarten people up.

The liberals and Laurentien Elites I can find myself expecting this from. If the RCMP get implicated, I hate to imagine how that will turn out. This is not a matter of a few people being involved, the whole force will suffer. They will be looked on as a Mexican or Salvadoran police force. Hang up the Red Serge. (sarcastic rant off)

I want to word this carefully, as some of my long time college buddies & indeed one of my best friends since childhood are RCMP officers (and in the case of my childhood best friend, his father was also a career RCMP officer)

But I'd be curious to hear the thoughts & opinions of any RCMP members on this forum, re the seeming lack of RCMP action in regards to corruption within the federal government, notably the current crop of LPC cabinet ministers

...

I know first hand that the rank & file RCMP members doing community level front-line police work are great people who do great work. I know for a fact that the members doing police work in our communities are not corrupt, and suggestions to the contrary are utter BS. (There's the odd bad apple, but you get that in every single police agency on the planet)

I experience the RCMP's exceptional professionalism almost every single day at work, and am currently experiencing it in my personal life also as I assist a good friend of mine navigate the process of filing a criminal complaint against a former employer.


...

My personal take on the matter of senior RCMP leadership seeming to turn a blind eye to what I perceive to be blatant corruption among Cabinet is the structure that exists at the level of being senior RCMP leadership & the relationship with federal politicians.

The PM appoints his senior Cabinet positions, including the Justice Minister. The PM & Justice Minister appoint who the RCMP Commissioner will be. (In our case currently, I believe our Justice Minister also happens to be the Attorney General...go figure.)

So instead of having an arm's length relationship between senior RCMP leadership and the federal government, it seems like the RCMP leadership is in a position where it...

a) doesn't want to bite the hand that can end their careers & have them replaced

b) literally can't take any notable action against senior Cabinet members when the Justice Minister/Attorney General are amongst the 'in crowd' that would be subject to the investigations


...

Just look at the absolute hell the PM has unleashed upon Chris Barber from the Freedom Convoy.

He's had an incredibly expensive legal battle to endure which I'm sure at this point has financially crippled him, as Trudeau instructed federal prosecutors to appeal the verdict to drag this out even longer, after what was already the longest mischief trial of all time...

As of Friday, federal prosecutors were asking for a 10 year prison sentence...for mischief!! Aggravating factors being included, that's utterly insane. (Especially considering we don't even hand prison sentences to repeat violent offenders who violently reoffend while on bail or probation...)

But it goes to show you how far Trudeau will go to punish anybody who dares cross him.

(All done with the express cooperation of the Justice Minister, and essentially no independent input from an independent Attorney General)

...

So my take on things is that senior RCMP leadership have their hands essentially tied & are unable to investigate matters or lay criminal charges because of the structure of the relationship between the RCMP Commissioner vs the PM, the Justice Minister, and the Attorney General

It has nothing to do with the rank & file members doing solid work in the communities they serve.


(But I could also be 100% wrong about all of the above, it's just my take on things as far as I understand them)

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I also respect the rank and file, but they'll be painted with the same brush. That was my point.

 

[Kirkhill]

And Sam Cooper describes another hill we have to climb to settle with Donald Trump

REPOST: "Fake Chinese income" mortgages fuel Toronto Real Estate Bubble: Canadian Bank Leaks

Canadian Banking Money Laundering Investigation Reposted in Light of Ottawa’s Fentanyl Czar Pledge

www.thebureau.news

In response to Ottawa’s pledge to tackle fentanyl-linked money laundering—including the appointment of a "fentanyl czar" and new intelligence-sharing initiatives with the United States—The Bureau is reposting this February 2024 investigation estimating tens of billions, potentially several hundred billion, laundered through Vancouver and Toronto real estate via underground banking networks tied to China and global narcotics trafficking, including fentanyl.

FINTRAC’s 2023 analysis of 48,000 transactions involving members of the Chinese diaspora exposed vast wire transfers from Hong Kong and Mainland China, funneled through “money mule” accounts linked to students, homemakers, and shell businesses—including law firms. These findings raised serious concerns about Canada’s banking oversight but led to no prosecutions in Canada. The study also revealed laundering patterns central to the U.S. Justice Department’s $3 billion TD Bank case, with international students from China working with Beijing's United Front networks playing key roles in the TD Bank money laundering, according to U.S. investigator David Asher, a former Trump Administration official. The revelations underscore how the so-called "Vancouver Model"—once centered on laundering drug proceeds through British Columbia government casinos—evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic, embedding itself deeper into Canada’s banking and legal systems. These findings align with research from SFU urban planner Andy Yan, who has documented how foreign capital distorts Canada’s housing market, with mortgage approvals and home purchases far exceeding reported local incomes.

At the heart of this investigation is HSBC Canada whistleblower "D.M.," who believes they uncovered at least $500 million in dubious Toronto-area mortgages backed by fabricated remote-work salaries from China. After raising the alarm internally, D.M. says HSBC Canada introduced only superficial reforms and pressured him to delete critical records—deepening his conviction that Canada’s financial oversight remains dangerously weak.

Former RCMP investigators Garry Clement and Cal Chrustie, who reviewed D.M.’s evidence, warn that systemic vulnerabilities persist. Chrustie—who has extensively documented Canada’s weak regulations enabling underground banking linked to organized crime in China, Iran, and Mexico—pointed to the 2012 U.S. Justice Department case where HSBC was fined $1.9 billion over $881 million in cartel-linked transactions involving Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel and Colombia’s Norte del Valle cartel.

As Andy Yan has emphasized, governments at all levels bear responsibility for enabling foreign capital to flood Canada’s housing market without adequate transparency. “When you have programs designed to domesticate foreign capital into local real estate, you see these income-to-home-price incongruities,” he said.

Ottawa’s new fentanyl czar is tasked with coordinating intelligence-sharing and enforcement actions with U.S. agencies to disrupt fentanyl trafficking and related money laundering. Trudeau’s government has also pledged to designate cartels as terrorist organizations, a move that could have sweeping consequences for Canadian banks by exposing them to heightened U.S. financial scrutiny and enforcement actions.

It remains to be seen what position Liberal Party leadership favourite Mark Carney—former Governor of the Bank of Canada (2008–2013) and the Bank of England (2013–2020), and a globally influential banker—will take on Canada’s ongoing struggles with financial crime and illicit capital flows. While the Bank of Canada does not oversee financial crime enforcement, Carney’s extensive experience in international financial regulation—gained through his roles involving oversight at global institutions such as the Bank for International Settlements and his active participation in forums on financial stability—suggests he could offer valuable insights into Canada’s banking vulnerabilities. This is particularly noteworthy as he emerges as a political contender and potential Prime Minister.

The most shocking case reviewed by The Bureau, shows that one woman that owns at least four Toronto properties opened her HSBC Aurora bank account in 2013, claiming to be a “Homemaker with no annual income.”

But her Toronto account soon received incredible amounts of wire transfers from HSBC China accounts, and paid out “high value cheques” to third parties for real estate purchases.

This case suggests “Toronto Method” shadow banking described in FINTRAC’s 2023 study has been seeping into Toronto real estate for about a decade.

And yet in 2020, this same woman applied for another HSBC Canada mortgage, claiming to earn $763,000 remotely from her job in China.

In interviews, D.M. told The Bureau he waited “patiently for a year” after reporting his Chinese-income mortgage concerns to HSBC Canada managers, before concluding the bank’s response was insufficient.

“This has been going on for seven years and no one spoke up,” he said. “In my first meeting last year, they asked me a lot of questions, like why didn’t you use the normal channels? But I had no faith in the normal channels.”

“Many bank staff were obviously involved,” D.M. alleged. “It was not one or two employees turning the blind eye but the entire system, someone verifying those fake offer letters and pay stubs, or their bank statements from China.”

D.M. said his concerns also included HSBC Canada’s proposed sale to RBC, which was announced in 2022, about six months after D.M. 's April 2022 internal complaint. The sale was approved in December 2023 by Canada’s deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland.

Christian Leuprecht, among other experts interviewed for this story, agreed that D.M.’s allegations of widespread Chinese-income frauds at HSBC Canada could raise questions about whether Freeland, Canada’s finance minister, had knowledge of mortgage lending investigations inside HSBC when she approved the sale.

Freeland directed RBC to “establish a new Global Banking Hub in Vancouver,” and “maintain Mandarin and Cantonese banking services at HSBC branch locations,” a Department of Finance statement says.

 

[lenaitch]

I want to word this carefully, as some of my long time college buddies & indeed one of my best friends since childhood are RCMP officers (and in the case of my childhood best friend, his father was also a career RCMP officer)

But I'd be curious to hear the thoughts & opinions of any RCMP members on this forum, re the seeming lack of RCMP action in regards to corruption within the federal government, notably the current crop of LPC cabinet ministers

...

I know first hand that the rank & file RCMP members doing community level front-line police work are great people who do great work. I know for a fact that the members doing police work in our communities are not corrupt, and suggestions to the contrary are utter BS. (There's the odd bad apple, but you get that in every single police agency on the planet)

I experience the RCMP's exceptional professionalism almost every single day at work, and am currently experiencing it in my personal life also as I assist a good friend of mine navigate the process of filing a criminal complaint against a former employer.


...

My personal take on the matter of senior RCMP leadership seeming to turn a blind eye to what I perceive to be blatant corruption among Cabinet is the structure that exists at the level of being senior RCMP leadership & the relationship with federal politicians.

The PM appoints his senior Cabinet positions, including the Justice Minister. The PM & Justice Minister appoint who the RCMP Commissioner will be. (In our case currently, I believe our Justice Minister also happens to be the Attorney General...go figure.)

So instead of having an arm's length relationship between senior RCMP leadership and the federal government, it seems like the RCMP leadership is in a position where it...

a) doesn't want to bite the hand that can end their careers & have them replaced

b) literally can't take any notable action against senior Cabinet members when the Justice Minister/Attorney General are amongst the 'in crowd' that would be subject to the investigations


...

Just look at the absolute hell the PM has unleashed upon Chris Barber from the Freedom Convoy.

He's had an incredibly expensive legal battle to endure which I'm sure at this point has financially crippled him, as Trudeau instructed federal prosecutors to appeal the verdict to drag this out even longer, after what was already the longest mischief trial of all time...

As of Friday, federal prosecutors were asking for a 10 year prison sentence...for mischief!! Aggravating factors being included, that's utterly insane. (Especially considering we don't even hand prison sentences to repeat violent offenders who violently reoffend while on bail or probation...)

But it goes to show you how far Trudeau will go to punish anybody who dares cross him.

(All done with the express cooperation of the Justice Minister, and essentially no independent input from an independent Attorney General)

...

So my take on things is that senior RCMP leadership have their hands essentially tied & are unable to investigate matters or lay criminal charges because of the structure of the relationship between the RCMP Commissioner vs the PM, the Justice Minister, and the Attorney General

It has nothing to do with the rank & file members doing solid work in the communities they serve.


(But I could also be 100% wrong about all of the above, it's just my take on things as far as I understand them)

The need complaints or allegations of potential criminal activity. Somebody needs to bring them something that gives them grounds to believe that criminal offence has taken place. If you tell the cops you think your neighbour is a drug dealer, they need more than just your allegations to get warrant.

I forget, was the Chris Barber/Freedom convoy investigation RCMP or Ottawa PS?