The War in Ukraine

[Kirkhill]

So now SK is looking at sending troops and the EU is relooking at Macron’s plan to send EU troops to Ukraine.

Not sure Putin had that in his bingo card when he accepted the NK soldiers.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1848660542648435181

Have the trains started running?

'War by Timetable'

In 1969 AJP Taylor published his book War by Timetable. In it, he argued that railway timetables played a key part in starting the First World War.

Mobilising millions of men was a hugely complicated job. Every country used the railways, and spent years working out how to get all those soldiers and all their supplies to where they needed to be - eg the Schlieffen Plan took nine years to devise (1897-1906).

Causes of WWI - Four Steps to WWI

www.johndclare.net

Taylor's argument was a variant of the Domino Theory. Once one nation started then the others couldn't not and war became inevitable.

 

[KevinB]

I see a snowball rolling down the hill gathering speed and size.

 

[captloadie]

If I were a Russian oligarch, I'd only live in ranch style estates.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

If I were a Russian oligarch, I'd only live in ranch style estates.

In Montana…

 

[KevinB]

If I were a Russian oligarch, I'd only live in ranch style estates.

I’m thinking the defection to the West is likely the safest option at this point, and then living in a ranch style home with a lot of security and never drinking any tea.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I’m thinking the defection to the West is likely the safest option at this point, and then living in a ranch style home with a lot of security and never drinking any tea.

A mate of mine in the UK owns a a huge estate, not too far from Heathrow in the countryside, right next to a gigantic, and ugly, Russian style palace on an equivalently large estate - owned by an oligarch type.

The Russians killed him in the UK, so being located in the West doesn't seem to be too helpful these days

 

[Eaglelord17]

I’m thinking the defection to the West is likely the safest option at this point, and then living in a ranch style home with a lot of security and never drinking any tea.

Trotsky lived in a fortified compound in Mexico city, didn’t do him much good

 

[KevinB]

A mate of mine in the UK owns a a huge estate, not too far from Heathrow in the countryside, right next to a gigantic, and ugly, Russian style palace on an equivalently large estate - owned by an oligarch type.

The Russians killed him in the UK, so being located in the West doesn't seem to be too helpful these days

Trotsky lived in a fortified compound in Mexico city, didn’t do him much good

I did note Security. Which I think a Mechanized Brigade should suffice for outer cordon with a Coy of SOF for interior.

I mean it’s just Russia, it’s not like Israel is coming for them

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Meanwhile also in Russia

https://twitter.com/x/status/1846836685239165422

 

[Colin Parkinson]

From Don's Weekly, 21 October 2024: Part 3

In February 2024, Russia had 1,130 MRL’s in Ukraine. At least 426 have been visually confirmed as destroyed. The Kiel Institute believes Russia is producing 13 systems a month and that 80% of those produced are refurbished from storage. Jompy believes they are producing more. Most of the stored systems are gone but they have been pulled not just to replace losses but to expand the number of systems in use.



In 2022, Russia was producing 250,000 152 mm rocket rounds and 33,000 122 mm rocket rounds a year. They are expected to build 1,325,000 152 mm rounds and 800,000 122 mm rounds in 2024. This may seem like a lot of ammo but if just 200 systems fire a complete salvo of 40 rockets a day, they would consume almost 3 million rounds. One of the reasons why Russian may not be producing more MRLS is that they have plenty on hand for the quantities of ammo they are producing. At this point ammo is the limiting factor, not vehicles.

 

[Kirkhill]

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland planning for the long war and the positional fight.

Estonia carries out bunker prototype tests for envisioned Baltic defense line - Breaking Defense

"We just used the explosives on the bunkers in specific areas, at different ranges, at different points," Magnus Saar, Estonia’s national armaments director, told Breaking Defense. "So let's say 'functional testing' as opposed to imitating battlefield conditions."

breakingdefense.com

600 bunkers amongst them. 35m2 (400 sq ft) for a section of 10. Siting in advance but construction delayed to conform to the threat with the intention of channeling the threat.

 

[Kirkhill]

Rockets are becoming more popular it seems.

Estonia signed for six HIMARS in a package worth over $200 million in 2020

The article notes that this order has been delayed prompting the Estonians to look farther afield for supplementary systems.

WASHINGTON — Estonia is weighing a second Lockheed Martin M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) order and has opened talks with other competitors to assess alternative platform options, according to the Baltic nation’s top weapons procurement official.

“We are expecting [HIMARS] deliveries next year, and we plan a follow on order,” Magnus Saar, Estonia’s national armaments director, told Breaking Defense on the sidelines of the AUSA trade show last week.

“Lately, our government decided to invest an additional €1.6 billion ($1.7 billion) to increase strategic sustainability….a huge part of it” will be spent on HIMARS, he noted, before stressing that any new deal is dependent on delivery lead times and pricing from the US government.

“If the delivery times were long, we may need to substitute HIMARS munitions for something else, that’s available faster,” he added. “We’re having those discussions here [in Washington] to establish a clear picture of if we would make an order and how fast we could get it.”

Talks with a number of non-US competitors have already taken place and include South Korea’s Hanwha Aerospace pitching the K239 Chunmoo, Turkey’s Rocketsan offering Khan and Israel’s Elbit putting forward the Precise and Universal Launching System (PULS). And there may be more — Saar said he had “probably neglected to mention a few” other competitors.

Estonia mulls additional HIMARS buy, while talking with Lockheed competitors - Breaking Defense

“If the delivery times were long, we may need to substitute HIMARS munitions for something else, that’s available faster," said Magnus Saar, Estonia’s national armaments director.

breakingdefense.com

....

Just a reminder that the Brits not only decided to keep their M271s but scrounged some more and decided to increase their planned inventory

British Army to Double Its Fleet of M270 MLRS by 2029

British Army to Double Its Fleet of M270 MLRS by 2029

armyrecognition.com

In September 2022, the United Kingdom announced its intention to acquire additional launchers from allied nations, including decommissioned vehicles from museums or those used as display pieces. It is now confirmed that 31 additional M270 MLRS vehicles have been acquired, sourced through various transfer operations as well as from other countries' fleets.

Among these new vehicles are MLRS launchers promised by Norway to the United Kingdom as part of a trilateral security agreement involving Ukraine. These Norwegian launchers, currently stored in the UK, will soon be sent to the United States for upgrades, likely to the A2 standard. However, these vehicles will require significant modernization efforts to become operational.

In addition to the acquired vehicles, two more launchers are currently in production, and a total of 61 M270 MLRS have already been ordered. Furthermore, 15 additional launchers are expected to be contracted in 2025, bringing the total number of platforms to 76 to meet the British Army's requirements. The full delivery of these M270 MLRS is planned by the end of 2029.

Britain confirms plans to double rocket artillery fleet

The Ministry of Defence has confirmed plans to upgrade and expand its Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) fleet to 85 vehicles from around 40.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

The Ministry of Defence has confirmed plans to upgrade and expand its Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) fleet to 85 vehicles from around 40.​

The information, confirming earlier plans, came in response to a question from Conservative MP Mark Francois regarding the specifics of the current fleet and future enhancement strategies.

Minister of State for the Ministry of Defence, James Cartlidge, revealed that the Ministry manages an operational fleet of 26 MLRS units, with an additional 50 systems held in reserve. The upgrade plans encompass 69 of these systems at a projected cost of £481 million. Moreover, an additional £158 million has been earmarked for enhancing 16 further systems. This phase includes the acquisition of surplus units from international partners, aiming to expand the operational fleet to 85 systems.

The upgrade process, structured in four tranches, is scheduled to conclude by 2030.

-

Gun alternative, bomber alternative, drone alternative, one way attack uncrewed aerial vehicle alternative, loitering attack munition alternative, all of the above.

...

In addition to the rockets though, the Brits may be buying 200 to 250 Boxer RCH155s

Is the British Army set to acquire 200 RCH 155 artillery systems? - Army Technology

A KNDS statement said the UK-German RCH 155 programme could be for up to 400 RCH 155 self-propelled artillery systems.

www.army-technology.com

Considering the unit cost of the RCH 155, which is €12 million, the purchase of 250 RCH 155 units is estimated.

United Kingdom Accelerates Artillery Programme to Acquire German RCH 1

{loadposition bannertop} Breaking news {loadposition sidebarpub}

armyrecognition.com

...

250 Guns and 85 MRLs seems like a lot of fire power for an army of 75,000 and 2 or 3 divisions.

 

[dapaterson]

I see a snowball rolling down the hill gathering speed and size.

The avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Nailed it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1848699993995030678

Best line of 2024 in my opinion - Russa - 'It's a gas station with a nuclear bomb.'

 

[Czech_pivo]

Rockets are becoming more popular it seems.


The article notes that this order has been delayed prompting the Estonians to look farther afield for supplementary systems.

Estonia mulls additional HIMARS buy, while talking with Lockheed competitors - Breaking Defense

“If the delivery times were long, we may need to substitute HIMARS munitions for something else, that’s available faster," said Magnus Saar, Estonia’s national armaments director.

breakingdefense.com

....

Just a reminder that the Brits not only decided to keep their M271s but scrounged some more and decided to increase their planned inventory

British Army to Double Its Fleet of M270 MLRS by 2029

British Army to Double Its Fleet of M270 MLRS by 2029

armyrecognition.com

Britain confirms plans to double rocket artillery fleet

The Ministry of Defence has confirmed plans to upgrade and expand its Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) fleet to 85 vehicles from around 40.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

-

Gun alternative, bomber alternative, drone alternative, one way attack uncrewed aerial vehicle alternative, loitering attack munition alternative, all of the above.

...

In addition to the rockets though, the Brits may be buying 200 to 250 Boxer RCH155s

Is the British Army set to acquire 200 RCH 155 artillery systems? - Army Technology

A KNDS statement said the UK-German RCH 155 programme could be for up to 400 RCH 155 self-propelled artillery systems.

www.army-technology.com

United Kingdom Accelerates Artillery Programme to Acquire German RCH 1

{loadposition bannertop} Breaking news {loadposition sidebarpub}

armyrecognition.com

...

250 Guns and 85 MRLs seems like a lot of fire power for an army of 75,000 and 2 or 3 divisions.

Its almost like they are preparing for something.

 

[YZT580]

Its almost like they are preparing for something.

and sooner rather than later. Sad contrast

 

[KevinB]

Good thread from Tatarigami on outlook of the war.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1848813808959226203

 

[KevinB]

Well, another unexpected mystery tile on the Bingo has been revealed. I'm guessing the Russian Army may have some retention issues if this becomes well established and well known.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1848795884810559590

 

[KevinB]

While not the biggest fan of the SecDef, he nails it here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1848765219494859231

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Best line of 2024 in my opinion - Russa - 'It's a gas station with a nuclear bomb.'

During the Cold War it was, " A Third World country with Nukes."