The War in Ukraine

[The Bread Guy]

... Corruption existed, was discovered and punished (forced out). The "cast the first stone" quote comes to mind. Corruption exists in the west and with respect to those involved in the US 'military/industrial complex' who have not inappropriately enriched or empowered themselves, there is a lot of institutionalized/normalised corruption here too. With a lot less visible punishment.

Very good points.

I may have better stated that it provides ammo to those who say "it's still a corrupt sh*thole place," sorta like the "the place is still rotten with Nazis" narrative one hears from time to time from anti-UKR/pro-RUS folks.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

They only need to outlast Ukraine’s ability to sustain its military. Russia has calculated, correctly, that with a nuclear deterrent they don’t need to keep very much conventional powder dry.

Ukraine's big challenge is to protect it's young men who are few and far between. Hence the reason you see mostly older men fighting. Ukraine cannot afford to lose the 17-25 year old males.

 

[KevinB]

They only need to outlast Ukraine’s ability to sustain its military. Russia has calculated, correctly, that with a nuclear deterrent they don’t need to keep very much conventional powder dry.

I'm not 100% on that, the Ukraine has shown it can invade Russia right back without creating a Nuclear escalation.

I'm pretty sure that has given people ideas...

 

[KevinB]

The UN sitting at a new low.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849432079437574439

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849449713784836600

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Well there are a lot of windows, stairs and tea parties at the UN

 

[KevinB]

Well there are a lot of windows, stairs and tea parties at the UN

Rather hang them in public.

 

[Kirkhill]

Ukraine's big challenge is to protect it's young men who are few and far between. Hence the reason you see mostly older men fighting. Ukraine cannot afford to lose the 17-25 year old males.

View attachment 88642

If I am reading that chart right then the women and children first policy of sending them to foreign refuges is likely to be doing two things:

Reducing the productivity of the Ukrainian economy at large

Increasing the difficulty of reinvigorating the Ukrainian economy later

Women contribute to the labour force and it appears that 40% of young women have left the country along with 40% of the children. Those women and children are not available to work and are being assimilated into their foreign refuges.

 

[KevinB]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4949714-north-korean-troops-ukraine-war/

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Rather hang them in public.

More inferring the fear of Putin's reach that people in the UN might have.

 

[KevinB]

More inferring the fear of Putin's reach that people in the UN might have.

Most are bootlicking sycophants though.

 

[Skysix]

More inferring the fear of Putin's reach that people in the UN might have.

Ukraine could build a bomb and fly it by drone within about 3 weeks if they wanted to. They have the fissile material from various power plants and years of use. Large? no. Efficient? No. Think WW2 level and design (plug into disc rather than a compressed orb).

Ukraine Can Go Nuclear — Should it?

Western nations are being naïve if they expect Ukraine to quietly acquiesce to its own eradication. Will Ukraine go nuclear?

cepa.org

Then an underground test and join the club / give Putin an ultimatum. Nothing specific, just withdraw completely within 30 days - or else. Highly likely NATO would magically release everything rather than have a nuke go off in Europe given the timidity and cowardice shown by the US administration with respect to.nuclear threats.

The Impending Betrayal of Ukraine

Ukraine faces a precarious future amid waning Western support. The immediate peril comes from the 2024 US presidential election, but the fundamental problem has been the failure of Europe to commit to the defeat of Putin’s invasion.

www.rusi.org

Well Jake, how is your "escalation management" theory looking now? Iran and Ukraine both less than a month from having nukes, Israel already does, Taiwan and many other vulnerable countries are looking at the abject failure of the US (and NATO) to stand up for their principles and, rightly, coming to the conclusion a nuclear deterrent is the only way to stop from being attacked/invaded.

2023 Doomsday Clock Statement - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

It is 90 seconds to midnight.

thebulletin.org

(As the "countdown clock" moves ahead 30 seconds from January this year)

 

[suffolkowner]

Ukraine's big challenge is to protect it's young men who are few and far between. Hence the reason you see mostly older men fighting. Ukraine cannot afford to lose the 17-25 year old males.

View attachment 88642

I dont think Russias demographics are better just that no one cares least of all Russians

 

[quadrapiper]

Probably Tom Clancy-grade speculation, but: I wonder how well-inventoried the Soviet nuclear weapons Ukraine gave up were. Squirrel a couple or three away somewhere against future critical need, with a plan to make suitable covering noises about swift development, and the whole thing in the hands of the sort of person who, in the UK, went to their deathbed without telling anyone about the stay-behind cache in the attic.

On a different, "does Europe really want this," note, but none of the options that aren't a fully liberated Ukraine that feels it was overall well-supported by the rest of Europe are much better than a nuke going off. A victorious, embittered, betrayed-feeling country full of angry, recently demobbed combat veterans won't be a great neighbour; neither will any of the possibilities that look more like a Russian victory, starting with a grinding, nasty guerrilla war.

 

[suffolkowner]

Ukraine could build a bomb and fly it by drone within about 3 weeks if they wanted to. They have the fissile material from various power plants and years of use. Large? no. Efficient? No. Think WW2 level and design (plug into disc rather than a compressed orb).

Ukraine Can Go Nuclear — Should it?

Western nations are being naïve if they expect Ukraine to quietly acquiesce to its own eradication. Will Ukraine go nuclear?

cepa.org

Then an underground test and join the club / give Putin an ultimatum. Nothing specific, just withdraw completely within 30 days - or else. Highly likely NATO would magically release everything rather than have a nuke go off in Europe given the timidity and cowardice shown by the US administration with respect to.nuclear threats.

The Impending Betrayal of Ukraine

Ukraine faces a precarious future amid waning Western support. The immediate peril comes from the 2024 US presidential election, but the fundamental problem has been the failure of Europe to commit to the defeat of Putin’s invasion.

www.rusi.org

Well Jake, how is your "escalation management" theory looking now? Iran and Ukraine both less than a month from having nukes, Israel already does, Taiwan and many other vulnerable countries are looking at the abject failure of the US (and NATO) to stand up for their principles and, rightly, coming to the conclusion a nuclear deterrent is the only way to stop from being attacked/invaded.

2023 Doomsday Clock Statement - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

It is 90 seconds to midnight.

thebulletin.org

(As the "countdown clock" moves ahead 30 seconds from January this year)

They would be fools to not have everything worked out and copied in advance. I would add SK, Japan and Taiwan to that list as well and maybe Vietnam. The difference of course was that Ukraine had the working model in their hands

 

[KevinB]

Help fund our War Crimes Investigations Unit

 

[Skysix]

Probably Tom Clancy-grade speculation, but: I wonder how well-inventoried the Soviet nuclear weapons Ukraine gave up were. Squirrel a couple or three away somewhere against future critical need, with a plan to make suitable covering noises about swift development, and the whole thing in the hands of the sort of person who, in the UK, went to their deathbed without telling anyone about the stay-behind cache in the attic.

On a different, "does Europe really want this," note, but none of the options that aren't a fully liberated Ukraine that feels it was overall well-supported by the rest of Europe are much better than a nuke going off. A victorious, embittered, betrayed-feeling country full of angry, recently demobbed combat veterans won't be a great neighbour; neither will any of the possibilities that look more like a Russian victory, starting with a grinding, nasty guerrilla war.

Had a USAF buddy who was on the SALT inspection teams. Not very easy, although enough bribery can alter paperwork it is harder to hide a physical weapon and move it around. Would have been/probably still is, easier to get one on the black market from another former Soviet satellite state. Especially when using state level assets as opposed to those of a criminal gang or terrorist group.

The very fact that after repeated lies and barriers tbe Ukrainians still have any faith in the US speaks extremely well of their character. However, forced negotiation will destroy that faith and embitter 2 or 3 generations.

Another factor will be how much longer the various border states are willing to publicly and privately follow the the NATO party line. The carrot (and stick) is access to US weapon systems, but that is not a forever thing and has limited and finite applicability. Especially in Poland. Nothing in the charter prevents any NATO member from declaring war on Russia or sending its troops under their national flag and command into the fray. At some (probably already determined) point they are highly likely to do so in my opinion.

 

[suffolkowner]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849482492778061901

another look at Russia's run on tanks

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849482492778061901

another look at Russia's run on tanks

Pretty much all the OSINT has Russia running out of Tanks and AFV's sometime in the 3/4'er of 2025. The it depends on who you believe as to how many T-90 they can build from scratch annually.

Then of course the who else may supply them group of Iran and North Korea:

North Korea:
aprox 2,000 mixed former Russian T-55 and Chinese Type 59,
~ 1,500 T-62 variants (inc domestically produced versions).
~600 Domestic T-72 variants
~20 Cheonma-2 which seems to be a clone of the South Korean K1 (Early M1 Abram's domestic production in the RoK) with some WTF factor tossed in.


Iran:
150 ish Mobarez (a modernized Chieftain)
150-200 M60A1 (unk condition)
2,000+ varying T-72 variants T-72 made under license
400 T72Z (domestic modification of T-62 and Type 59 tanks with Iranian production NATO 105mm M68 gun, and ironically a Ukrainian produced engine) - allegedly withdrawn from service.
400-800 Karrar (the bastard love child of a drunken orgy of a Merkava, Abrams, Challenger, Leopard II and T-90) -


Realitically Russia could likely get 5-6k of the T-72 variant and other older models from the Axis of Evil partners.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Pretty much all the OSINT has Russia running out of Tanks and AFV's sometime in the 3/4'er of 2025. The it depends on who you believe as to how many T-90 they can build from scratch annually.

Then of course the who else may supply them group of Iran and North Korea:

North Korea:
aprox 2,000 mixed former Russian T-55 and Chinese Type 59,
~ 1,500 T-62 variants (inc domestically produced versions).
~600 Domestic T-72 variants
~20 Cheonma-2 which seems to be a clone of the South Korean K1 (Early M1 Abram's domestic production in the RoK) with some WTF factor tossed in.
View attachment 88657

Iran:
150 ish Mobarez (a modernized Chieftain)
150-200 M60A1 (unk condition)
2,000+ varying T-72 variants T-72 made under license
400 T72Z (domestic modification of T-62 and Type 59 tanks with Iranian production NATO 105mm M68 gun, and ironically a Ukrainian produced engine) - allegedly withdrawn from service.
400-800 Karrar (the bastard love child of a drunken orgy of a Merkava, Abrams, Challenger, Leopard II and T-90) -
View attachment 88658

Realitically Russia could likely get 5-6k of the T-72 variant and other older models from the Axis of Evil partners.

The modern nation state is capable of just about anything it sets its mind to.

I'd therefore doubt the Russians will be running out of anything, as long as their current structure is intact.

 

[quadrapiper]

I'm sure

Pretty much all the OSINT has Russia running out of Tanks and AFV's sometime in the 3/4'er of 2025. The it depends on who you believe as to how many T-90 they can build from scratch annually.

Then of course the who else may supply them group of Iran and North Korea:

North Korea:
aprox 2,000 mixed former Russian T-55 and Chinese Type 59,
~ 1,500 T-62 variants (inc domestically produced versions).
~600 Domestic T-72 variants
~20 Cheonma-2 which seems to be a clone of the South Korean K1 (Early M1 Abram's domestic production in the RoK) with some WTF factor tossed in.
View attachment 88657

Iran:
150 ish Mobarez (a modernized Chieftain)
150-200 M60A1 (unk condition)
2,000+ varying T-72 variants T-72 made under license
400 T72Z (domestic modification of T-62 and Type 59 tanks with Iranian production NATO 105mm M68 gun, and ironically a Ukrainian produced engine) - allegedly withdrawn from service.
400-800 Karrar (the bastard love child of a drunken orgy of a Merkava, Abrams, Challenger, Leopard II and T-90) -
View attachment 88658

Realitically Russia could likely get 5-6k of the T-72 variant and other older models from the Axis of Evil partners.

Imagine it grates on the more Glorious Motherland sort of Russian to be buying from what were previously customers, and especially to be buying basic things like shells on one hand and "tools for terrorists" drones on the other.

The modern nation state is capable of just about anything it sets its mind to.

I'd therefore doubt the Russians will be running out of anything, as long as their current structure is intact.

Modern nation state, sure; what're the expected outcomes for ten thousand criminal conspiracies wearing a Soviet greatcoat?