The Next Conservative Leader

[dapaterson]

No, I don't think so.

I think Jim Flaherty has two ambitions:

    1. Earn a few big, corporate pay cheques, because he needs to earn some big money to address some family health problems (one of his sons); and

    2. Help his wife, Christine Elliot, become Premier of Ontario, because many (most?) people think Tim Hudak cannot win.

Ding ding.  I wonder if even Tim Hudak thinks he can win; the last election was his to lose and he did so.  And I'm pretty confident in his ability to do it again.

 

[The Bread Guy]

A development on the Jim Prentice front ....

Several current and past Conservative members of Parliament are hoping former federal cabinet minister — and potential Stephen Harper successor — Jim Prentice will jump into the race to be the next Alberta Progressive Conservative leader and premier.

Alison Redford’s recent resignation as premier and PC leader has some politicians and operatives scrambling for a saviour to rescue the party and carry on the 43-year Progressive Conservative dynasty.

Prentice is currently vice-chairman of CIBC and would take a huge pay cut if he ever left the private sector for provincial politics. As well, several Conservatives quietly believe Prentice — a former Calgary MP and senior minister in the Harper government — has his eyes on the leadership of the federal party whenever the prime minister makes his exit.

Nevertheless, the provincial “Draft Jim Prentice” movement is quickly gaining steam, as potential candidates gear up for an Alberta PC leadership vote in September ....

 

[devil39]

Ding ding.  I wonder if even Tim Hudak thinks he can win; the last election was his to lose and he did so.  And I'm pretty confident in his ability to do it again.

Agree completely.  He was awful and they kept him.  Glad I have left Ontario.

 

[Remius]

I agree, his performance has been awful.

Heard him speak yesterday and for the first time I was at least mildly impressed.

1) He's not letting himself be pushed around by Wynn's libel threat and is calling her bluff.

2) He wants to scrap the green energy act.  That alone will likely get my vote.

3) His million jobs plan may be ambitious but at least he HAS a plan to offer.

Ontario is a mess right now and I don't think that Wynn or Horvath can fix it (mostly because I think they truly believe that nothing is wrong).  In fact I think they'll make it worse. 

 

[Edward Campbell]

Stephen Maher speculates on the CPC leadership in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Citizen:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/national/Maher+Jason+Kenney+could+prime+minister+before+next+election/10382419/story.html

Jason Kenney could be prime minister before next election

STEPHEN MAHER, POSTMEDIA NEWS

11.13.2014

On Friday, Stephen Harper surpassed Brian Mulroney, becoming the sixth longest-serving prime minister in our history.

On Jan. 24 he will begin his 10th year at 24 Sussex Drive. There’s reason to wonder if he will have an 11th, or if he will step aside to let someone else lead his party into next October’s election.

A decade is a long time to be prime minister. Jean Chretien and Mulroney both packed it in around that mark, as did Britain’s Tony Blair and Australia’s John Howard.

Voters eventually get tired of leaders, and rivals get ambitious.

Harper is careful not to overexpose himself, and there are no signs that anyone in his party is scheming to unseat him, but the exasperation of those who don’t like him is starting to be a palpable force for change, and he is carrying heavy baggage that another leader could cast off.

If Harper stays at the helm, the next campaign will be like cycling uphill with Mike Duffy sitting on the handlebars. If somebody else is doing the pedalling, then whatever is in Duffy’s inbox will be much less troubling to the re-election prospects of Conservatives.

Harper is not telegraphing a career change, but he wouldn’t, would he? The minute a sitting prime minister starts to look like he’s thinking about taking a walk in the snow, his aides start polishing their CVs, and it’s harder to instill the kind of fear that makes premiers, bureaucrats, mayors and aboriginal leaders treat the office with due deference.

Close observers note that Harper has recently taken to wearing contact lenses, a sign that he’s getting into campaign mode.

On the other hand, he’s been travelling overseas more, which is something leaders often do before they hang up their guns.

Some say that Harper can’t abide the idea of losing to Justin Trudeau, and needs to avoid the next election. Others say he won’t back down from a fight.

Nobody can figure out what his next job might be, and he sure seems to like being prime minister, but Laureen might like him to see more of her and the kids, and after four elections and 13 years as a party leader, the family might deserve a quieter life.

I’ve been watching the guy as closely as I can since 2003 — not a particularly rewarding pursuit — and I have little idea of what motivates him, aside from a desire to reduce taxes, shrink the federal government and thwart his rivals.

Other Harper characteristics — his information-controlling ways, his sometimes-over-the-top attacks on opponents, critics, supreme court justices and other innocent bystanders — can be understood tactically, as a means to an end. None of it necessarily reveals his character, beyond a certain ruthlessness.

But I think he might leave fairly early in the new year, handing the reins to somebody who has a better chance of winning the next election: Jason Kenney.

Harper is enjoying a bump in the polls  — the first in a long while — which actually might make it easier for him to declare victory and announce a succession contest.

If he runs, Kenney would win that race and be prime minister by the time the snow melts,  govern for the summer and lead the party to the polls in October.

He is formidable — intelligent, deep and hard-working — an excellent communicator who can scrum endlessly, switching back and forth from French to English.

Unlike Harper, he seems like a happy warrior, ready to engage with critics in a friendly way.

Since Bob Rae left Parliament, only Harper and NDP Leader Tom Mulcair show similar communication skills coupled with policy depth.

And Kenney is the most important organizer in his caucus. He understands ethnic politics better than anyone in the country.

The party is his for the taking, and his former staffers are in key positions throughout the Harper government. They are often the smartest people in the room, small-c conservative intellectuals who aren’t afraid to grub for votes.

It’s likely safe to assume that a politician as ambitious as Kenney wants to run the country, and I think he does, but nobody ever suggests he is plotting against the boss.

Others might seek the job — Rona Ambrose, Maxime Bernier, Tony Clement, Peter MacKay, James Moore and Lisa Raitt — but nobody but (maybe) them thinks they could beat Kenney.

He’s such a good politician that he’d be a formidable campaigner, but many doubt that he can win the country. He is more socially conservative than Harper, and may not be willing to dodge a damaging fight over abortion, as Harper has done.

And there is a blank space where his private life should be, an X factor. He is an unmarried, devout Catholic, which might make it harder for some Canadians to identify with him.

Our longest serving prime minister — 21 years at 24 Sussex — was lifelong bachelor Mackenzie King, but to become prime minister these days, you have to be a ready-for-TV product, as Trudeau is.

You need to tell Canadians a story about yourself.

Kenney may have a story to tell, but he can’t get started until Harper takes a walk in the snow.

I share Mr Maher's lack of insight into Prime Minister Harper's intentions, but he has said, several times, that it is his intention top make Canada a more Conservative country and I wonder if he thinks there is a better chance of that if Mr Kenny, not he, is at the helm.

 

[dapaterson]

Re: Colin Kenny.  Confirmed bachelors are so interesting.  (Right, John Baird?)

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Do you mean Jason Kenny? 

Peter Mackay was a confirmed bachelor until two years ago. That worked out pretty well for him...

 

[dapaterson]

Wrong Kenny on my part.  Colin is, as Frank magazine puts, an avid heterosexualist.

John & Jason, on the other hand...

 

[GAP]

Depending on how well things turn out in Alberta, Prentiss is a viable contender, but only after a few years as premier.........

or as an alternative to Prentiss.....Brad Wall....

 

[Edward Campbell]

I think that, sadly for Canada, Jim Prentice is, probably, totally "out," now ... and he's probably not unhappy to be "out."

But I'm less sure about John Baird: bailing out when he did seems, to me, now, to have been a good strategic move. Let's assume that the polls are trending towards a predictable finish ... in the two years after the 2011 election many people, me included, saw a solid majority in the CPC's future (2015); now the betting is that there will be a minority and it may just as easily be a NDP minority as a CPC one. In any event, given anything but a shocking, massive majority I guess that Prime Minister Harper will resign as party leader in 2015/16.

John Baird may be well positioned to make a comeback: he's taken another new job, according to this (month old) article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, but it seems to be another "part time," strategic advisor job, one from which he could take a leave of absence to contest the CPC leadership:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/streetwise/john-baird-joins-law-firm-bennett-jones/article24620006/

John Baird joins law firm Bennett Jones

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Jeff Gray
The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Law firm Bennett Jones LLP says it has hired former foreign minister John Baird, who abruptly quit politics in February.

The firm says Mr. Baird – who had also served as an Ontario cabinet minister under former Tory premier Mike Harris, where he earned a reputation for feisty Question Period performances – will serve as a senior adviser.

Mr. Baird joins a large team of former political heavyweights at Bennett Jones that includes former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge, prime minister Jean Chrétien’s former political adviser Eddie Goldenberg, former Canadian ambassador to the United States Allan Gotlieb, former Supreme Court justice Jack Major and former deputy prime minister Anne McLellan.

The firm also recently announced the hiring of Leo de Bever, former head of the massive Alberta Investment Management Corp. pension fund, as a senior advisor.

In a statement, Mr. Baird said he would be offering “strategic counsel” to the firm and its foreign and domestic clients, but will not be “making representations to the Government of Canada.”

“In particular, I am excited to continue my interest in Canada-China relations, the Bennett Jones office in Beijing being a further draw for me to the firm,” Mr. Baird said in the statement.

It is not the first new job Mr. Baird has taken since leaving public office. In April, it emerged that he was taking a gig as an advisor to Hong Kong billionaire Richard Li, son of one of the wealthiest men in Asia, on international matters.

Barrick Gold Corp. has also hired him to sit on its international advisory board, and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. nominated him to serve as a director.

Mr. Li has Canadian citizenship, as does his father, 86-year-old business magnate Li Ka-shing, who controls Calgary-based Husky Energy and is well known in Vancouver for redeveloping waterfront land used for the 1986 World’s Fair.

As to Mr Baird's sexual orientation ... it seems to me that Premiers Wynne (ON) and MacLauchlan (PEI) have "broken trail" for a prime minister in, shall we say, an alternative domestic situation.

 

[Remius]

I think for the most part, his sexual orientation is irrelevant.  Most people just want good leadership.  Even for those (ad there are some) that have a problem with that orientation, they are most likely to overlook it if they get strong leadership out of the deal. 

 

[Underway]

As to Mr Baird's sexual orientation ... it seems to me that Premiers Wynne (ON) and MacLauchlan (PEI) have "broken trail" for a prime minister in, shall we say, an alternative domestic situation.

Wait.. what?  Why are the conservatives not advertising this (subtly).  Are they that progressive that its a non-issue or are they afraid of how some of their base might react?  Seems to me that would really help them out against some of the attacks that they are under all the time.

 

[Remius]

Wait.. what?  Why are the conservatives not advertising this (subtly).  Are they that progressive that its a non-issue or are they afraid of how some of their base might react?  Seems to me that would really help them out against some of the attacks that they are under all the time.

Or maybe like most people, they don't give a rat's a**.

 

[Underway]

Or maybe like most people, they don't give a rat's a**.

I do belive I said that...

  Are they that progressive that its a non-issue ....

But I don't think that's entirely the case.  Conservatives never ever fail to take an advantage and bludgeon their foes with it.  So either they may not think it's an advantage (as it exposes internal party divisions, like the abortion issue would) or most likely Mr. Baird was not comfortable with campaigning on his sexuality as that's not the classy Canadian way.  He's about policies and politics.  So con's definately outweigh the pros.

I will say this though, if he does run for CPC leadership or Ontario provincial leadership it will become an issue story.  Just because of the stereotype that exists of conservatives in the media and public perception.

 

[jollyjacktar]

I think that, sadly for Canada, Jim Prentice is, probably, totally "out," now ... and he's probably not unhappy to be "out."

Do you really want a leader that forces an election on the populace unnecessarily and when things go pear shaped he has a tantrum, takes his ball and runs home in a sulk.  I'm not so sure...  he is just as bad as Iggy was and acted the same too.

 

[Pencil Tech]

Hmmm, just heard James Moore's not seeking re-election. Baird, MacKay, Moore...they think they're going to lose the election.

 

[a_majoor]

Wait.. what?  Why are the conservatives not advertising this (subtly).  Are they that progressive that its a non-issue or are they afraid of how some of their base might react?  Seems to me that would really help them out against some of the attacks that they are under all the time.

Classical Liberals are not advertising this (subtly or not) because in the Classical Liberal universe it simply does not matter. So long a person keeps his/her personal issues to themselves then it is none of our business. the problem is the Progressive meme of making everything "political", so should Mr Baird choose to come back for a leadership bid, the unsavoury attention focused on his personal life will be from those busybodies who choose to make your and my personal business *their* business.

For what its worth, I thought Mr Baird had done an outstanding job during his time in parliament, and would look forward to see him coming back for another tour of public service.

 

[cupper]

You have to wonder why Harper didn't take a walk in the snow like so many of his predecessors?

Now grant you he was probably thrown off by how late winter lasted so he may have thought he had more time than he really did, but still...

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Hmmm, just heard James Moore's not seeking re-election. Baird, MacKay, Moore...they think they're going to lose the election.

I heard about this on CBC Radio just an hour or so and apparently Moore, who is from BC, has a son who is handicapped and there may have been some medical issues that have popped up. They didn't go into any details, but the person being interviewed thought that was the reason and nothing to do with Moore jumping ship.

 

[dapaterson]

I heard about this on CBC Radio just an hour or so and apparently Moore, who is from BC, has a son who is handicapped and there may have been some medical issues that have popped up. They didn't go into any details, but the person being interviewed thought that was the reason and nothing to do with Moore jumping ship.

#RideMeWilfred suggests otherwise.