The Next Conservative Leader

[jollyjacktar]

The difference between Trudeau years and now is the access the public have to congregate via the internet.  We're all much more connected today and able to make groups of like minded individuals from far and wide at almost an instant.  That wasn't available 35 years ago.  Some of it is a vicious circle, people disagree with Mr. X or Ms. Y, this fans the flames, which draws in more people, more angst, more flames, repeat ad naseam.  Almost a perpetual motion cycle.

 

[Kirkhill]

How well can Rona Ambrose provide tough, Prime Ministerial, leadership especially considering an international aspect?

Jed I just saw your post.  Three names came to mind.

Golda Meir.  Indira Gandhi.  Maggie Thatcher.  And I shouldn't forget Benazir Bhutto.

A woman PM, of any party, would do me just fine.  (So long as it wasn't Hedy Fry).

 

[Kirkhill]

With respect to Harper continuing ....

I believe/sense that part of the Harper's problems have been associated with legitimacy.  His opponents have never accepted him as a legitimate governor.  The amount of political capital he has to expend on an issue is exacerbated by that notion.  Consequently, I believe, that where folks like Trudeau-Pere and Obama feel/felt free to rule by diktat Harper has selected his battles.

The F35 is one.  Perhaps picking a fight with NDHQ over downsizing was another.  Spending money during a recession at the insistence of the opposition.  Pulling out of Afghanistan as a result of a parliamentary vote..... there are others.

It would not surprise me if Harper wins this election he will take it as a form of validation, a declaration of legitimacy.  After that he may well decide to step down in a year or two and hand off to someone else after a well-planned transition.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>The difference between Trudeau years and now is the access the public have to congregate via the internet.

Exactly.  Social media and internet publishing have several fold increased the volume of opinion, the range it covers, the speed at which it spreads, and the capability to comment anonymously.  Facebook launched in early 2004; Twitter launched in mid 2006.

I hypothesize that the last feature - anonymous or pseudonymous commentary - has corroded civil standards of public discourse, and that widespread sharing of unattributed malicious vituperations has desensitized and emboldened people to increasingly do so openly.  That has in turn been a multiplier of the resentment of the elite factions displaced and inconvenienced by changes, and many of those people are surprisingly (to me) arrogant about their sense of entitlement to be in charge "for the greater good".

 

[Kirkhill]

:nod:

 

[a_majoor]

>The difference between Trudeau years and now is the access the public have to congregate via the internet.

Exactly.  Social media and internet publishing have several fold increased the volume of opinion, the range it covers, the speed at which it spreads, and the capability to comment anonymously.  Facebook launched in early 2004; Twitter launched in mid 2006.

I hypothesize that the last feature - anonymous or pseudonymous commentary - has corroded civil standards of public discourse, and that widespread sharing of unattributed malicious vituperations has desensitized and emboldened people to increasingly do so openly.  That has in turn been a multiplier of the resentment of the elite factions displaced and inconvenienced by changes, and many of those people are surprisingly (to me) arrogant about their sense of entitlement to be in charge "for the greater good".

From studying history I am not surprised at all. The French nobility felt just fine until they were dragged from their beds by screaming mobs during the French Revolution, and other regime collapses right up to the fall of the USSR and its dissolution in the early 1990's happened rapidly and almost without warning for the elites, who are insulated in their bubbles from much of the economic hardship they dole out to us plebes and inside an echo chamber where outside opinions do not register. (Robert Kaplan mentions this in a different context in many of his books, the "ground truths" he observes as a traveler are simply outside of view of the diplomatic corps and government officials enclosed in their embassies).

So they are arrogent since they believe that they are the people entitled to make decisions for the rest of us, and disconnected becasue they rarely feel the effects of their decisions. When "The People" turn out against them (such as the American TEA Party movement, the growth of European Natavist parties or the shift of the Canadian electorate away from the traditional "Laurentian consensus"), they are literally blindsided and quite angry that anyone would dare to disagree with them.

 

[McG]

If he wins a minority and decides to retire quickly he will make life difficult for Messers Mulcair and Trudeau, both of whom have vowed to "take down" a Stephen Harper government. By convention, all parties have a gentlemen's agreement to not force an election while one of the major parties is having a leadership race. Such leadership races normally last for about six months ... let's say that Prime Minister Harper wins a minority on 19 Oct and, on 20 Oct, as you suggest, Lumber, he announces his retirement, maybe even going so far as to resign his own seat and appoint an interim leader. What do the LPC and NDP do? Keep their promise and throw the Tories out or be traditional gentlemen and let the CPC elect their new leader and then force an election? Choice two would, of necessity involve one or the other party supporting both a Throne Speech and a budget. Either choice will be criticized by someone.

I suppose they could throw the Tories out but argue there should be no election on the notion that one of the two parties can command the confidence of the house .... and so convention, if upset, would be blamed on the GG for deciding to go back to election.

 

[Edward Campbell]

                       

Now, Chris Alexaneder is, was anyway, often touted as CPC leadership materiel, and, today, he's made an announcement about "measures to stop child and forced marriage, and other barbaric cultural practices against girls and women." Nothing really odd about that, he is the Minister of Citizenship and Immigration so it falls, tangentially, into his domain ... other than that it's pretty thin gruel.

But look at the picture of the announcement:

It's taken in his electoral HQ in Ajax but Dr Kellie Leitch, who is the Minister of Labour and Status of Women (so the problem is also, maybe more, in her domain) is there with him. Since the perceived problem is, arguably, more hers than his, then I wonder why he announced it. Is he is trouble? Is his re-election in some doubt? Dr Leitch has been pretty well used in helping weaker candidates ... is that what Mr Alexander is, now, a weak candidate?

 

[jollyjacktar]

The news was only showing the good Dr. speaking of this new snitch line.

 

[Remius]

                       

it. Is he is trouble? Is his re-election in some doubt? Dr Leitch has been pretty well used in helping weaker candidates ... is that what Mr Alexander is, now, a weak candidate?

His performance on P&P may have been the catalyst as well as the whole refugee debacle.  He became the face of that.  I'm not sure he has recovered or will recover from it.  Maybe they see something we don't.

 

[Edward Campbell]

His performance on P&P may have been the catalyst as well as the whole refugee debacle.  He became the face of that.  I'm not sure he has recovered or will recover from it.  Maybe they see something we don't.

Indeed ... I thought the general (public and media) reaction to the P&P thing was overblown, but I also thought that Mr Alexander was tired and on edge, and I thought then, and still think, now, that something more than the refugee crisis had to have been wrong to rattle a seasoned diplomat. He seemed and still seems "off his game," if that's the right expression.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Indeed ... I thought the general (public and media) reaction to the P&P thing was overblown, but I also thought that Mr Alexander was tired and on edge, and I thought then, and still think, now, that something more than the refugee crisis had to have been wrong to rattle a seasoned diplomat. He seemed and still seems "off his game," if that's the right expression.

I suspect it is the whole grimy process called an election.....

 

[Edward Campbell]

I suspect it is the whole grimy process called an election.....

Or is it, I wonder, how this election campaign is being managed by this campaign team? Mr Alexander is a demonstrated, proven smart guy, he knew politics was a rough and dirty business before he entered the lists; but Stephen Harper and his team are not like many others ... perhaps one needs a stiffer spine than even a "front line" ambassador in a war zone brings to the "game."

 

[The Bread Guy]

Or is it, I wonder, how this election campaign is being managed by this campaign team? Mr Alexander is a demonstrated, proven smart guy, he knew politics was a rough and dirty business before he entered the lists; but Stephen Harper and his team are not like many others ... perhaps one needs a stiffer spine than even a "front line" ambassador in a war zone brings to the "game."

If that's the case, it says more about the nature of the game (and the coach?) and how it's being played than the otherwise reasonably strong victim thereof.

 

[Edward Campbell]

If that's the case, it says more about the nature of the game (and the coach?) and how it's being played than the otherwise reasonably strong victim thereof.

Maybe, but other potential CPC leaders, like Jason Kenny and Rona Ambrose and newer potential contenders Kellie Leitch and Eric O'Toole (and, of course, "outsiders" like John Baird and Peter MacKay) are campaigning or have campaigned under Prime Minister Harper's (harsh?) highly restrictive regime and they seem to have fared and to be faring much better ... but, maybe I'm reading too much into it. I like Chris Alexander, I hope he does well and stays in politics, he's the sort of fellow we need, I think.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Maybe, but other potential CPC leaders, like Jason Kenny and Rona Ambrose and newer potential contenders Kellie Leitch and Eric O'Toole (and, of course, "outsiders" like John Baird and Peter MacKay) are campaigning or have campaigned under Prime Minister Harper's (harsh?) highly restrictive regime and they seem to have fared and to be faring much better ...

We'll have to see they handle it if they get hit with any hardballs of the scale of the refugee issue.

.... maybe I'm reading too much into it. I like Chris Alexander, I hope he does well and stays in politics, he's the sort of fellow we need, I think.

Concur 100%.  Guys like him can contribute a lot even if they don't make it through "leader selection", so to speak.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I'm not touting Dr Leitch for the leadership, but I cannot help but notice her own (unselfish) energizer bunny support for other CPC candidates ...

Helping Julian Fantino ~ who is in danger of being defeated

Helping King-Vaughn candidate Konstantin Toubis

Campaigning with candidate Ninder Thind in Brampton West

These are the kinds of things that make you friends in the whole party apparatus. They are very good things for leadership hopefuls to be doing.

 

[suffolkowner]

I truly hope Kellie Leitch isn't even an option. I would need some serious policy agreement to vote Conservative with Leitch at the helm. Never been a fan of Chris Alexander either. Jason Kenney and Rona Ambrose, I think I can get behind much easier.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I truly hope Kellie Leitch isn't even an option. I would need some serious policy agreement to vote Conservative with Leitch at the helm. Never been a fan of Chris Alexander either. Jason Kenney and Rona Ambrose, I think I can get behind much easier.

Interesting ... my perception is that Leitch is a social liberal and a fiscal conservative, whereas Ambrose is a social and a fiscal moderate but she is also the closest the CPC has to a political libertarian and Kenney is a social and a fiscal conservative. How would you feel about Erin O'Toole, also a young newcomer, and John Baird?

 

[suffolkowner]

Well for me with Kellie Leitch its more a personal-visceral thing. But perception as you say is what this game is played on. I can't say I've formed an opinion on Erin O'Toole but am definitely not a fan of Baird. I'd like to think that my decision is based on policy but can't deny the effect of persona as well. The labels liberal,conservative I have never been able to make fit with my own views consistently. A fault in my own use of logic perhaps? Or the labels themselves?