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... said more than one politician RIGHT up to the moment they said they wanted to spend more time with their family. Never say never ...
THIS I like ....
Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????
- Thread starter Altair
- Start date
Haggis
Army.ca Veteran
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I don't think his ego would allow him to step down.
RangerRay
Army.ca Veteran
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I think he wants to spank Pollievre badly.
TacticalTea
Army.ca Veteran
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I kinda would too.
The CPC is at record numbers though, so PP might win.
Would be interesting to see if he can form government with the PPC or Bloc if necessary.
Uhh… PPC would need to be capable of winning a seat to be relevant to this. They aren’t.
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They weren't... Canada in 2022 isn't Canada in 2021.
Long gone is the optimist of a bright post-COVID future. In today's politics a PPC that can be disciplined enough to stick to financial issues could be a king maker.
Eaglelord17
Army.ca Veteran
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Or a crown loser if they manage the split the vote enough to keep the CPC out of a few seats without actually gaining any.
You’re completely in the realm of fantasy here. PPC weren’t remotely close to taking any seats, and we solid single digits in nearly all of the ones they ran in. They had a mild vote splitting effect, potentially making the difference in up to twelve seats where CPC came second by fewer votes than PPC won. It’s a safe bet that most (certainly not all) of the votes PPC took would have most likely gone CPC but for them. But that is the best PPC can claim- they cost the Conservatives some seats without ever approach viability themselves.
CPC are, at best, a pressure release balance to help bleed the CPC of some of its most aggravating crazies. They didn’t impact enough seats to change the balance of power or the overall result in the last two parliaments. Any major growth in their support going forward, however, would undoubtedly be mostly at the CPC’s expense. A PPC growth could be the route to a Liberal majority, by splitting the vote enough for LPC to take seats they’d otherwise have lost by a narrow margin, or even perhaps had no real chance at winning.
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Dinosaur
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'Unsure' leads in the polls...
'The proportion of Canadians who are unsure who they would prefer as Prime Minister has hit a three year high. Trudeau is in second behind unsure and has been recently trending down.' Nik Nanos
'The proportion of Canadians who are unsure who they would prefer as Prime Minister has hit a three year high. Trudeau is in second behind unsure and has been recently trending down.' Nik Nanos
Blackadder1916
Army.ca Fixture
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However, Nanos' quip is out of context. His weekly tracking report does not include the CPC leadership candidates in the mix. The choice presented as the CPC leader in their data is Bergen, the current interim leader.
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Dinosaur
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His comments on CTV this morning suggested that the CPC share will increase as soon as they decide on their leader as they're already doing OK with Bergen just 'keeping the seat warm'.
One can only hope... FFS.
TacticalTea
Army.ca Veteran
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Record low approval for PMJT, 51% negative opinion.
Trudeau at -20, PP -7, Charest -5
Given all three are very well known, name recognition is probably baked in already. Thus, it looks like the Tories are well placed to win the next election, no matter which one takes the helm.
Trudeau at -20, PP -7, Charest -5
Given all three are very well known, name recognition is probably baked in already. Thus, it looks like the Tories are well placed to win the next election, no matter which one takes the helm.
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we can hope
That is essentially what Peter MacKay did, although, it didn't work out for him.
Except that that is not really how it works in Canada. We have a minority government, meaning that in theory the election could come at any time, meaning that he as the leader of the Liberal Party would be running again. If this Liberal-NDP deal magically holds out till 2025 we might see him stepping down about six months before the election. So maybe we will see the deal magically disappear and an election call in early 2024?
Either way, it is important to remember that the sitting Prime Minister has run in every Canadian election since confederation.
It’s much more complicated than “he’s in a minority therefore he’s running” in this situation. He can step down at anytime and pass the reins when ever he so chooses given his current arrangement. That is exactly how it can work.
Can his deal be scuttled and we end up in an election he has to run in? Sure. But the NDP are far too comfortable with this deal. Trudeau wanted a majority to cement his legacy. He tried and Canadians refused to give it to him so he has the next best thing. He’s in a minority situation and able to govern as a majority.
I won’t repeat ad nauseam again why I think he won’t run. But I could see an announcement in early 2023 and either a coronation or a one sided short leadership campaign. Then the new leader arranges an engineered election “ie the new leader wants a new mandate or something like that” but not before he or she has had time to make their name known enough and that the conditions are right.
Your last point is noted though. But trudeau wouldn’t have to be the sitting PM at that time. Brian Mulroney stepped down and didn’t run. I’m sure that Trudeau would be more than happy to remain undefeated.
But, this is just theory crafting at this point in my part. If I get it wrong I get it wrong.
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