Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????

[brihard]

My son just showed me a poll he found on line, by EKOS I think, that has 1.2% of surveyed Albertans indicating they will vote BQ. How many BQ candidates in Alberta again?

Odds are, given the sample size, that was a single individual respondent hitting the wrong option, or throwing it in there as a joke. It’s understood and self-admitted that the provincial level polling shouldn’t be taken as particularly reliable. The margin of error figures always apply to the poll as a whole. The guy who runs Ekos flat out said that he doesn’t believe that poll accurately reflects LPC support in Alberta. Artefacts like that are an inevitable product in of polling based on statistical sampling.

Note though that all the criticism and guffaws Ekos is getting now is the same criticism and guffaws they got several weeks ago, when they turned out to be a week or two ahead of everybody else in accurately identifying the shift in trend. I think their poll is an outlier in favour of LPC, but it probably does reflect that the overall trend is now in the LPC’s favour. That’s consistent with what others are saying. There should be another Ekos poll out within the week; I’ll be curious to see how that looks.

 

[daftandbarmy]

My son just showed me a poll he found on line, by EKOS I think, that has 1.2% of surveyed Albertans indicating they will vote BQ. How many BQ candidates in Alberta again?

Might be some oil company workers, and others, from PQ in Alberta?

 

[RangerRay]

Some warnings for the Tories: stop fighting the last war, get serious, and get on with it. And stop explaining.

Dispatch from the Front Lines: Hey, Conservatives. Carney can beat you

We wonder if the people who purged Erin O'Toole are feeling the little hairs on the backs of their necks stand up.

open.substack.com

 

[Halifax Tar]

Some warnings for the Tories: stop fighting the last war, get serious, and get on with it. And stop explaining.

Dispatch from the Front Lines: Hey, Conservatives. Carney can beat you

We wonder if the people who purged Erin O'Toole are feeling the little hairs on the backs of their necks stand up.

open.substack.com

They need to pivot. And they're not right now.

I fear the CPC have once again become their own worst enemies.

 

[Remius]

They need to pivot. And they're not right now.

I fear the CPC have once again become their own worst enemies.

Victims of their own success.

They did a great job making JT the villain. Now that the villain is gone they are without purpose.

I read a good quote saying that there can be no Pierre Poilievre without Justin Trudeau.

They are indeed fighting yesterday’s fight and need to pivot fast. Canada First didn’t exactly work so we’ll see what they can do.

There are a slew of things they could try but it may be hard to change their stripes. The slogans and nicknames should be the first thing they drop.

 

[Blackadder1916]

My son just showed me a poll he found on line, by EKOS I think, that has 1.2% of surveyed Albertans indicating they will vote BQ. How many BQ candidates in Alberta again?

I don't dispute that there is possibly a poll that strangely has such a result, however I went through one of my mailboxes this morning and found a request from EKOS to participate in an online poll. I'm on their list, receive these regularly; sometimes I do play along, more often I don't. This request was from earlier in the month, and having recalled your post, clicked the link to see how they worded the question (i.e, did they ask Alberta residents if they would vote Bloc). The first question was to identify province, it was a check-the-box. Second question was to identify which party one would most likely vote for. The Bloc Quebecois only came up on the list if Quebec had been previously checked as place of residence.

 

[ArmyRick]

Victims of their own success.

Ohhh shit, did they lose the election already? Ohh wait, it hasn't even been called yet.

 

[Remius]

Ohhh shit, did they lose the election already? Ohh wait, it hasn't even been called yet.

You are missing the point.

Tell me, should they just keep doing what they have been doing? Everything is fine nothing to see type thing?

 

[JLB50]

They need to pivot. And they're not right now.

I fear the CPC have once again become their own worst enemies.

It’s unfortunate that the Tories have such a long history of deposing their leaders.

 

[Remius]

It’s unfortunate that the Tories have such a long history of deposing their leaders.

Could PP survive a defeat?

 

[PrairieFella]

Could PP survive a defeat?

I don't think so. For better or worse, his brand is tainted. No matter what he does now, he's a Trump-lite figure in the Canadian zeitgeist. That will only become more and more toxic. Can someone call Erin O'Toole and give him a mulligan? That might be the only way they can squeeze something out lol. Either way the Conservatives seem to have already lost this fight, since it seems they won't be able to form a majority. Even if they take a plurality of seats, convention dictates that the previous government gets first shot at forming government and I doubt the NDP/Bloc/Greens will back the Tories.

 

[IKnowNothing]

They need to pivot. And they're not right now.

I fear the CPC have once again become their own worst enemies.

It seemed like there was a brief moment of consideration around this time https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-conservatives-message-1.7449835, coupled with a very strong speech on the initial tariff weekend, some policy type announcements etc. But it doesn't seem like the shift stuck.

 

[ArmyRick]

You are missing the point.

Tell me, should they just keep doing what they have been doing? Everything is fine nothing to see type thing?

Drop by Mark Carney social media pages and have a read of the comments. Not very endearing.

Campaigns do matter. This was Trudeau's strength. He used his drama and acting skills to work up a crowd.

How long will Carney hide from the media or keep expecting the CBC to campaign for him? Sure, a few media outlets say crap things like "Whats Poilievre going to do now now...blah, blah, blah". Pierre shows up somewhere at a work place and he packs the room. People cheer him like a hero. Carney shows up, and they sanitize the crowd, keep the media at bay and only let him speak briefly.

Carney tactic is to get voted based on his reputation as a "banker" and relying on ignorant Canadians to assume he knows everything on economics, trade, finances and budgeting. He can't hide from his past. The youth (people under 30-35) will absolutely not vote for him. His last stand is the die hard 65+ pro liberals (Liberal or die) crowd.

I think people are misreading what they think is happening.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Victims of their own success.

Victims of Trump winning (then going full Trump).

From day 1 the Liberal plan was to make the election about Liberals vs Trump, not Liberals vs Conservatives.

Canadians are pouring out American alcohol in badass acts of defiance and bragging about "taking their flag back". The LPC pitched the CPC as American friendly from the start. There's no way the CPC is shaking that off now, especially when Canadians are acting like a mob looking for someone to lynch to show how patriotic they are.

The Liberals will win the election and they won't even have to drag out abortions.

 

[JLB50]

Could PP survive a defeat?

PP doesn’t have all that many friends. He bet pretty much all his money on the carbon tax issue and has a particular image problem with women. Also he didn’t even congratulate Doug Ford for his huge election mandate. Basically he has burned not only many of his political bridges behind him but in front of him as well. Unless PP wins fairly decisively against Carney, he’s toast. The Tories should have stuck with O’Toole…not perfect but still one of the better CPC prospects we’ve seen in years.

 

[Remius]

Drop by Mark Carney social media pages and have a read of the comments. Not very endearing.

Nothing to do with what I asked.

Campaigns do matter. This was Trudeau's strength. He used his drama and acting skills to work up a crowd.

Campaigns matter? Good to see you turn around on that. You ranted about that when I brought it up in the past. Glad you see the light in that regard.

How long will Carney hide from the media or keep expecting the CBC to campaign for him? Sure, a few media outlets say crap things like "Whats Poilievre going to do now now...blah, blah, blah". Pierre shows up somewhere at a work place and he packs the room. People cheer him like a hero. Carney shows up, and they sanitize the crowd, keep the media at bay and only let him speak briefly.

So then your answer is stay the course. Nothing to see here. Ok.

Carney tactic is to get voted based on his reputation as a "banker" and relying on ignorant Canadians to assume he knows everything on economics, trade, finances and budgeting. He can't hide from his past. The youth (people under 30-35) will absolutely not vote for him. His last stand is the die hard 65+ pro liberals (Liberal or die) crowd.

Ah yes the ignorant voter argument…

I think people are misreading what they think is happening.

Possibly. So then the CPC should keep on messsge then. Ok.

 

[QV]

Victims of Trump winning (then going full Trump).

From day 1 the Liberal plan was to make the election about Liberals vs Trump, not Liberals vs Conservatives.

Canadians are pouring out American alcohol in badass acts of defiance and bragging about "taking their flag back". The LPC pitched the CPC as American friendly from the start. There's no way the CPC is shaking that off now, especially when Canadians are acting like a mob looking for someone to lynch to show how patriotic they are.

The Liberals will win the election and they won't even have to drag out abortions.

The same kind who disparaged the flag when the "others" were flying it and happy to see bank accounts frozen and property (legal guns) made illegal.

 

[QV]

Here PP goes into detail on how he will axe the tax (and how Carney hasn't and won't) that Canadians need to hear.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1901574232401707313

 

[IKnowNothing]

Victims of Trump winning (then going full Trump).

Both.

And a 3rd- victims of their own failure to seize the yawning chasm of a vacuum left by JT in the Canadian political centre, allowing Carney to slide right in and try to lay to claim to it essentially unopposed*.

* Trying to plant doubt in the legitimacy/sincerity of Carney's claim isn't the same things as standing and fighting with your own claim to the ground.

 

[Remius]

Both.

And a 3rd- victims of their own failure to seize the yawning chasm of a vacuum left by JT in the Canadian political centre, allowing Carney to slide right in and try to lay to claim to it essentially unopposed*.

* Trying to plant doubt in the legitimacy/sincerity of Carney's claim isn't the same things as standing and fighting with your own claim to the ground.

They gave up on the center when they ousted Otoole