Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????

[suffolkowner]

A split vote with the Bloc in control.... Who would get the Bloc to form a coalition first ?

Lets have an election right away and settle this.

A coalition or a minority government? The Libs will get first crack
Im still not convinced that the CPC has fallen that far but a majority government that looked to be a sure thing is no longer

 

[Halifax Tar]

A coalition or a minority government? The Libs will get first crack
Im still not convinced that the CPC has fallen that far but a majority government that looked to be a sure thing is no longer

Its the Bloc they have to convince first. They can go to GG with the proposal, but if they haven't secured that Bloc vote is all for naught.

 

[Remius]

We also don't know how much sway the Mark Carney effect will have once the leadership race is over

Correct. As I have been parroting, sometimes parties poll higher without leaders. Which is why I suspect an early election will be had

 

[MilEME09]

Correct. As I have been parroting, sometimes parties poll higher without leaders. Which is why I suspect an early election will be had

The writ wont drop until after the leadership race is over now, Carney is polling well in quebec, and in the GTA which if that continues wil likely lead to another liberal minority, the CPC can form government without quebec or the GTA but not both.

 

[Remius]

The writ wont drop until after the leadership race is over now, Carney is polling well in quebec, and in the GTA which if that continues wil likely lead to another liberal minority, the CPC can form government without quebec or the GTA but not both.

That’s what l meant by early election. Carney won’t want to try and rule for long and will call it early for a mandate

Unless Ruby wins lol

 

[suffolkowner]

Its the Bloc they have to convince first. They can go to GG with the proposal, but if they haven't secured that Bloc vote is all for naught.

i dont think either party will look for an actual coalition with the Bloc, concessions yes

 

[Remius]

i dont think either party will look for an actual coalition with the Bloc, concessions yes

The bloc won’t join any coalition but they will hold anyone at ransom for their support

 

[brihard]

We’ve never had an actual coalition at the federal level, with shared cabinet posts. I wouldn’t see that changing now. Just the usual horse trading for parliamentary support.

 

[mariomike]

Trudeau announces plans for high-speed rail network in Toronto-Quebec City corridor

A new, high-speed rail network between Toronto and Quebec City will be a “game changer” for Canadian commuters, cutting travel times from Ontario’s largest city to Montreal to three hours, the prime minister says.

www.ctvnews.ca

I am a fan of this.

Me too.

The trains – which will be fully electric and travel over 300 km/h – will stop in Toronto, Peterborough, Ottawa, Montréal, Laval, Trois-Rivières and Quebec City.

 

[MilEME09]

And there we have it, a Liberal majority if carney wins

https://twitter.com/x/status/1892349754383732899

 

[Remius]

And there we have it, a Liberal majority if carney wins

https://twitter.com/x/status/1892349754383732899

What a historical poll collapse if this is the case.

 

[Halifax Tar]

What a historical poll collapse if this is the case.

Lets say this latest poll is exactly how the next election goes... Does PP survive as party leader ?

 

[Remius]

Lets say this latest poll is exactly how the next election goes... Does PP survive as party leader ?

Under that scenario? Definitely not.

But to be truthful, I don’t think that scenario is realistic. Pretty sure polling will level off at some point if Carmey gets selected and a campaign launches (again campaigns matter) I remain convinced that at this point the best the LPC can hope for is holding the CPC to minority. Getting themselves into opposition is pretty much a given.

Anything short of a majority puts PPs leadership of the party into question. He’ll be able to lead in a minority but he will be diminished leadership wise.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Under that scenario? Definitely not.

But to be truthful, I don’t think that scenario is realistic. Pretty sure polling will level off at some point if Carmey gets selected and a campaign launches (again campaigns matter) I remain convinced that at this point the best the LPC can hope for is holding the CPC to minority. Getting themselves into opposition is pretty much a given.

Anything short of a majority puts PPs leadership of the party into question. He’ll be able to lead in a minority but he will be diminished leadership wise.

I agree. It would be interesting to see PPs reaction to a scenario that unfolded like the one above.

I also think if the Cons dont win a majority we will be at this again in less than a year.

 

[Halifax Tar]

And there we have it, a Liberal majority if carney wins

https://twitter.com/x/status/1892349754383732899

Whoa! The NDP with zero seats! I just noticed that.

And more percentage of the vote than every party after them.

 

[brihard]

Whoa! The NDP with zero seats! I just noticed that.

And more percentage of the vote than every party after them.

First Past the Post can be wild.

Nobody else can touch the LPC for vote efficiency; everything else aside, we’ve gotta give ‘em that. The CPC overweight in the Prairies distorts (sometimes significantly) popular vote vs seat count.

 

[Remius]

I agree. It would be interesting to see PPs reaction to a scenario that unfolded like the one above.

I also think if the Cons dont win a majority we will be at this again in less than a year.

The CPC bench is pretty thin when it comes to potential contenders to replace PP. I suspect people outside caucus would step up to try and lead. So maybe he could stay the course.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The CPC bench is pretty thin when it comes to potential contenders to replace PP. I suspect people outside caucus would step up to try and lead. So maybe he could stay the course.

Maybe Ambrose will return ? I know, I'm dreaming.

 

[Halifax Tar]

First Past the Post can be wild.

Not just wild, IMHO it's wrong. I have issue with an electoral system that will ignore that vote count but then recognize the preceding ones.

But I digress we have beaten that topic to a pulp.

Nobody else can touch the LPC for vote efficiency; everything else aside, we’ve gotta give ‘em that. The CPC overweight in the Prairies distorts (sometimes significantly) popular vote vs seat count.

They, the LPC, do appeal to the urban eastern Canadian there is no debate in that.

 

[brihard]

Not just wild, IMHO it's wrong. I have issue with an electoral system that will ignore that vote count but then recognize the preceding ones.

But I digress we have beaten that topic to a pulp.



They, the LPC, do appeal to the urban eastern Canadian there is no debate in that.

Yup, and to be clear since I haven’t had reason to mention it in a while, I’m a fan of a properly thought out proportional representation system.