Liberal Minority Government 2019 - ????

[suffolkowner]

Except that's now how things work, is it?

They don't work that way until they do.

Do I think any separation is going to happen? No I don't, not Quebec, not Alberta, not anything else.

But I'm not big on some idiot from any city not just Toronto complaining about my cows mooing. Or telling me how many dogs I can own, or what firearm I can own or how to keep it and then complaining when their $4000 Shitzu gets eaten by a coyote. So I like pipelines but also like carbon taxes and am pretty Pro-Choice and believe in decriminalization of drugs and that murderers and rapists and pedophiles should never see the light of day again. So it does piss me off that the Conservatives do not look like they will get their act together and we will be stuck with Liberal governments for the foreseeable future. I don't believe we have seen anything yet from Trudeau and company with another mandate the progressive wokeness will reach even greater depths of absurdity

 

[Weinie]

Except that's now how things work, is it?

Rural Quebec would have gone for separation in 95 and Urban Quebec wouldn't have, but provincial decisions are done on a whole.

So on a whole, Ontario is staying put, as is BC. And that is just the problem the CPC has. Rural Canada doesn't have the population to compete with Urban Canada, and Canada continues to get more urban every year that goes by. For all the landmass that the CPC can win, its people that decide elections.

So circling back to the Urban Rural divide, the CPC needs to start winning in the top 70 urban ridings in Canada. I just don't see how they can be competitive without making inroads there. And god forbid another redrawing of the electoral map happens, because all its going to do really is add more ridings in urban areas. The math isn't going to be getting better in the years ahead, it's going to be getting worse.

Edit: I just checked, the ridings are redone every 10 years after the census, so we are due for another one shortly.

According to elections Canada, the next redistribution process will begin with receipt of the 2021 decennial census return

One of the questions asked during the run-up to the 95 referendum (and after) was "Why was Canada divisible, but Quebec borders were considered sacrosanct/inviolable? Why does the 905 region, which is vastly different in political thinking, be the main determinant in election after election.? I get it that one person, one vote, and that urban regions have more people, in a first past the post system. I think we all acknowledge that the urban/rural divide is real, which means that rural will likely always lose to urban. Why should that not have been the principle applied in a Quebec separation scenario?

Perhaps the PM, after looking at the polls in 2017, decided to walk away from proportional representation, and realize that he had a good thing going.

 

[Good2Golf]

Its not the west though its just as much a urban/rural divide which you yourself has defined. I know lots of people in Ontario that would give the 401 corridor up. BC is 70% Cons by area and 95% is Skeena-Buckley flipped. So you can add 70% of Ontario and 70% of BC to the new Canada. If the prairies were a separate country the pipeline equation would change to as now the ROC would be denying a country access. The US gets away with it with Canada because there is no pushback but theres no way that would fly between a Prairie/New Canada vs Old Canada dispute

The US “gets away with it” because Canada is not a land-locked state.

In your “Prarie/New Canada” scenario, natural gas and oil pipelines do not have default acceptance under the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Part X, Article 124, Para 2 refers:

2. Land-locked States and transit States may, by agreement between them, include as means of transport pipelines and gas lines and means of transport other than those included in paragraph 1.

So ‘New Canada’ would have to agree to allow Prairies transit use of pipelines…by default, a land-locked state has only default access to road, water routes, rail and porters and pack animals, explicitly…

1.(d) "means of transport" means:

(i) railway rolling stock, sea, lake and river craft and road vehicles;

(ii) where local conditions so require, porters and pack animals.​

There is no internationally endorsed manner for a land-locked state to unilaterally force a transit nation to build or allow the construction of a pipeline external to the land-locked state’s own territory.

 

[brihard]

17 to 25. That's a bet I would make.

34 to 66. That's a bet I would make.

This whole lets make a new Canada out west thing, or Alberta separating, its all suffering from one sad fact. BC is more left leaning than right, and the 66/34 split, that 25/17 split, that 59/28 split is always going to make sure that BC west coast is more akin to the Quebec City to Windsor corridor than the Edmonton/Calgary to Thunder Bay expanse.

Make a new Canada out of Alberta Saskatchewan and Manitoba? Fine. BC isn't going along with it, still landlocked, still have no pipelines to tidewater, and now you have hostile neighbors on both sides of you, and a USA that depending on which party is in power, isn't going to be allowing things such as pipelines. And if you thought getting pipelines was hard from within confederation, good luck from outside.

Good job west, you done screwed yourself.

That's why I laugh whenever I hear that brought up. Quebec at least has access to the Atlantic.

And this is before the indigenous get a say. You would see vast swaths of the prairies covered by treaties that would have no interest in leaving Canada. That would tie the whole thing up in litigation for decades.

 

[suffolkowner]

The US “gets away with it” because Canada is not a land-locked state.

In your “Prarie/New Canada” scenario, natural gas and oil pipelines do not have default acceptance under the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Part X, Article 124, Para 2 refers:


So ‘New Canada’ would have to agree to allow Prairies transit use of pipelines…by default, a land-locked state has only default access to road, water routes, rail and porters and pack animals, explicitly…

There is no internationally endorsed manner for a land-locked state to unilaterally force a transit nation to build or allow the construction of a pipeline external to the land-locked state’s own territory.

Thanks GTG I thought there was maybe something more there.

Of course my New Canada would include the North Coast of BC. But like I said I don't expect anything to actually happen but the two communities are only going to grow further and further apart and this is bound to create greater strains

 

[Jarnhamar]

We should give every First Nation in Canada a seat in Parliament.

 

[Weinie]

We should give every First Nation in Canada a seat in Parliament.

There are, I believe, 634 First Nations in Canada. Doing so would swell the Parliament to 972 seats. FN's represent a little over five percent of Canada's population, yet if they voted as a bloc, they would control the other 95% of the population.

 

[Altair]

Thanks GTG I thought there was maybe something more there.

Of course my New Canada would include the North Coast of BC. But like I said I don't expect anything to actually happen but the two communities are only going to grow further and further apart and this is bound to create greater strains

My new Canada includes the North coast of BC is like Quebec separatists saying they would continue to use the Canadian dollar and have a say in Canadian monetary policy.

A pipe dream that makes the idea more feasible, but no less of a pipe dream.

 

[Good2Golf]

Thanks GTG I thought there was maybe something more there.

Of course my New Canada would include the North Coast of BC. But like I said I don't expect anything to actually happen but the two communities are only going to grow further and further apart and this is bound to create greater strains

Don’t get me wrong SO, my roots are from the prairies and most of my cousins work oil&gas. However, until the Tories (not that they’re really Tories anymore) sort themselves out to think more than an inch past the party membership’s noses, we’re going to keep getting more of what we’ve had for the last 5-1/2 years…

 

[suffolkowner]

My new Canada includes the North coast of BC is like Quebec separatists saying they would continue to use the Canadian dollar and have a say in Canadian monetary policy.

A pipe dream that makes the idea more feasible, but no less of a pipe dream.

I never said it wasn't a pipe dream, actually I never said it was a pipe dream. It's more of a pipe nightmare.

There's nothing to stop an Quebec from using the Canadian dollar

Don’t get me wrong SO, my roots are from the prairies and most of my cousins work oil&gas. However, until the Tories (not that they’re really Tories anymore) sort themselves out to think more than an inch past the party membership’s noses, we’re going to keep getting more of what we’ve had for the last 5-1/2 years…

Yeah and I haven't heard any real ideas on improving that situation just everyone doubling down as they surround themselves with their echo chambers

 

[brihard]

I never said it wasn't a pipe dream, actually I never said it was a pipe dream. It's more of a pipe nightmare.

There's nothing to stop an Quebec from using the Canadian dollar



Yeah and I haven't heard any real ideas on improving that situation just everyone doubling down as they surround themselves with their echo chambers

Surprisingly apropos given that it literally stems from dreaming about pipes.

 

[Altair]

I never said it wasn't a pipe dream, actually I never said it was a pipe dream. It's more of a pipe nightmare.

It would be a nightmare for almost all of North America.

There's nothing to stop an Quebec from using the Canadian dollar

No, they could just buy and use it, same as any other currency.

But a manufacturing economy tied to a oil and gas one would lead to the Quebec economy going through a wild ride.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Fucking people over works both ways. CN and CP rail both pass through the prairies. BC doesn't get all its oil from Alaska.

 

[Altair]

Fucking people over works both ways. CN and CP rail both pass through the prairies. BC doesn't get all its oil from Alaska.

In a race to the bottom, the prairies get the shaft way harder.

Besides, Canada has access to US rail lines.

And NAFTA.

Long term Canada has short term pain, then adjusts. Independent prairies is stuck permanently behind the 8 ball.

In terms of separatist movements, the prairies has one of the worst justification and geography.

Are they a historical oppressed minority group that has a local majority? No.

Were they independent in the past? No.

Are they far removed from their mother country? No.

Do they have access to the sea? No.

Are they presently being oppressed by the majority group in their nation? Well, Trudeau shitcanned a pipeline heading east and put in a carbon tax.

I mean...sorry, I'm too busy laughing.

 

[The Bread Guy]

You mean the people's party? Or did we already forget about them? Would do the CPC a favor if more flocked to that party

Them, and maybe some others that might even find Max & Co. not hardcore enough.

As for any favours that might do to the party, I think splitting the conservative vote would only let Team Red more easily zoom up the middle.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Hmmm.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/british-columbia/2020/results/

NDP 57 seats, 899,365 votes

Liberals (Conservatives really, and even they are so so on pipelines) 28 seats, 636,726 votes

Greens 2 seats, 284,312 votes.

So the anti pipeline parties have 59 seats out of 87 seats, and 1,183,677 out of 1,820,403 voters.

So....no.

We still have two major pipelines under construction, along with myriad of smaller segments that never make the news. So far only 1 pipeline that was viable has been shot down, regardless what the parties say. Reality bites when they get in and realize that Vancouver can not carry the Province on it's own.

 

[FSTO]

In a race to the bottom, the prairies get the shaft way harder.

Besides, Canada has access to US rail lines.

And NAFTA.

Long term Canada has short term pain, then adjusts. Independent prairies is stuck permanently behind the 8 ball.

In terms of separatist movements, the prairies has one of the worst justification and geography.

Are they a historical oppressed minority group that has a local majority? No.

Were they independent in the past? No.

Are they far removed from their mother country? No.

Do they have access to the sea? No.

Are they presently being oppressed by the majority group in their nation? Well, Trudeau shitcanned a pipeline heading east and put in a carbon tax.

I mean...sorry, I'm too busy laughing.

Unable to see Hudson Bay through your tears?

 

[Brad Sallows]

The determination to believe that the commodities exported from the prairies can simply be swept aside or find space on US tracks is merely amusing. The people without jobs moving goods - and there will be many - will be vocal, as will the consumers. I'd guess that less than a week after gasoline storage tanks in BC run dry, a west coast accommodation is reached.

 

[brihard]

I think this discussion took a turn towards the stupid when it shifted from the issue of pipelines that don’t presently exist to rail lines that do.

If, let’s just indulge the fantasy, AB, SK and MB decided to vote for sovereignty, it’s entirely reasonable to point out that they will not have Atlantic or Pacific Ocean access in terms that they can dictate. They still would not have the pipelines they want. It’s equally reasonable to expect that freight rail would continue pretty much as per- but that a ‘remainder of Canada’ may not be amenable to increasing oil by rail shipments. Now, they would of course have a long US border, but as we’ve seen, that can be fickle too.

While a major effort could be made to expand infrastructure to Churchill and grow the port to handle mass oil, there would be tremendous challenges with this.

And we continue to pretend the indigenous aren’t there and don’t have a say.

 

[MilEME09]

While a major effort could be made to expand infrastructure to Churchill and grow the port to handle mass oil, there would be tremendous challenges with this.

And we continue to pretend the indigenous aren’t there and don’t have a say.

True but if we get it right, especially factoring in climate change, a LNG or oil terminal in or around Churchill would be an economic boom to the local economy. The jobs created for FN could help lift many bands into higher income thresholds. However it would need to be done right via consultation