CDN/US Covid-related political discussion

[PuckChaser]

So 45,000 short. Feds' fault?

So less than 70% of stated target. The government either can't make accurate estimates, or they seriously fail at execution.

Even plebeians in the military take courses & exams that require 70% or higher to pass...

So Mick's link had some great info that unfortunately proves the shortfall for vaccines.

Ontario needs 840,000 vaccines to hit their target of 120,000 doses per day. Remainder for this example is AZ, US AZ, and COVAX.
Week of 12-18 April, Pfizer scheduled 395,460, Moderna 0 (they only deliver every 2 weeks), Remainder 0 for total of 395,460 doses.
Week of 19-25 April, Pfizer scheduled 395,460, Moderna 448,400, Remainder 0 for total of 843,860.

Ontario needs 1,680,000 doses to deliver 120,000 doses to individuals per day, for a 14 day span. Ontario is going to get 1,239,320 doses in that span, IF the deliveries show up on time and at the beginning of the week. That's a deficit of 440,680 or 26%, or 3.66 days. If the doses trickle in at an irregular rate throughout the week, or show up at the end, then its impossible to push the doses to the folks that actually need it. Note on the website that Pfizer has no intention of ramping up shipments to Canada until at least June. That means this pattern will continue unless Moderna doubles their shipments in May (not listed).

Shoving needles into the arms of 20 somethings with no comorbidities does absolutely nothing to reduce hospitalization/ICU and case fatality rates because they're not at risk, and would actually increase them because a haphazard plan of just giving needles to whoever shows up would syphon resources away from actually at risk individuals (anyone 60+) especially since there has been no statements saying vaccinated individuals stop the spread.

 

[PMedMoe]

Shoving needles into the arms of 20 somethings with no comorbidities does absolutely nothing to reduce hospitalization/ICU and case fatality rates because they're not at risk, and would actually increase them because a haphazard plan of just giving needles to whoever shows up would syphon resources away from actually at risk individuals (anyone 60+) especially since there has been no statements saying vaccinated individuals stop the spread.

If the vaccine stops the spread (no proof so far), I'd say get them into whoever will take them. Twenty somethings may not be "at risk" according to you (however, the variants seem to be taking care of that), but I suspect that the 10-30 age group are the biggest spreaders of the illness.

For example, Kingston's most recent cases:

19 cases on Wednesday - A female under 10 years of age, a male in the 10 to 19 age range, a woman and three men in their 20s, and three women in their 40s contracted the virus via close contact. Still under investigation are the cases of a male and a female in the 10 to 19 age range, and five women and three men in their 20s.

13 cases on Monday - Three females and four males in their 20s, and a male in his 50s — are being investigated by Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox and Addington Public Health. The remaining five cases — a female and two males between 10 and 19 years of age, a female in her 20s, and a female in her 50s — are the result of close contact.

So out of 32 cases, 12 are in their 20s and three more are in the 10-19 age group (and I'm betting closer to 19 than 10). That makes almost half the new cases in people who aren't "at risk". Yet, they are at the risk of spreading it to others.

With the new cases, 15 involve variants of concern.

(Info from The Kingston Whig Standard)

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Lets hope we all do the right thing and not make this a reality. [and probably some good luck wouldn't hurt]

Canada on track to surpass U.S. in number of new COVID cases relative to population

Canada on track to surpass U.S. in number of COVID cases relative to population

In a reversal of earlier pandemic trends, Canada is on the verge of matching — perhaps surpassing — the United States in the number of COVID-19 cases relative to its population.

Updated data compiled from the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 dataset shows that the United States sits at roughly 196 COVID-19 cases per one million people, and Canada, as of Tuesday, was at 180 cases per one million people.
While this amounts to, in raw numbers, a difference of some 59 million cases, it’s a worrisome trend, experts say.

Anthony Dale, the president and CEO of the Ontario Hospital Association, said the United States has suffered “the biggest public health catastrophe in probably the modern Western world’s history.”
While the situation is improving south of the 49th because of a massive vaccination campaign, Canada is trending the opposite direction, yet we’re still feeling a bit of “Canadian exceptionalism” Dale said, even as we’re “probably about to surpass” the U.S. in terms of community spread.

“We’ve been somewhat blind to our overall performance internationally because we’re sitting right next door to the United States and the disaster that clearly was their experience during this pandemic,” Dale said. “They have clearly experienced much worse outcomes overall than Canada, make no mistake, however, it’s the future I’m worried about, and we’re trending in a worrisome direction in comparison to them when it comes to community spread.”

MORE ON LINK

 

[PMedMoe]

And to add to my post, let's vaccinate all the insistent churchgoers too. Or fence off the churches.

 

[Mick]

So Mick's link had some great info that unfortunately proves the shortfall for vaccines.

Ontario needs 840,000 vaccines to hit their target of 120,000 doses per day. Remainder for this example is AZ, US AZ, and COVAX.
Week of 12-18 April, Pfizer scheduled 395,460, Moderna 0 (they only deliver every 2 weeks), Remainder 0 for total of 395,460 doses.
Week of 19-25 April, Pfizer scheduled 395,460, Moderna 448,400, Remainder 0 for total of 843,860.

Ontario needs 1,680,000 doses to deliver 120,000 doses to individuals per day, for a 14 day span. Ontario is going to get 1,239,320 doses in that span, IF the deliveries show up on time and at the beginning of the week. That's a deficit of 440,680 or 26%, or 3.66 days. If the doses trickle in at an irregular rate throughout the week, or show up at the end, then its impossible to push the doses to the folks that actually need it. Note on the website that Pfizer has no intention of ramping up shipments to Canada until at least June. That means this pattern will continue unless Moderna doubles their shipments in May (not listed).

Shoving needles into the arms of 20 somethings with no comorbidities does absolutely nothing to reduce hospitalization/ICU and case fatality rates because they're not at risk, and would actually increase them because a haphazard plan of just giving needles to whoever shows up would syphon resources away from actually at risk individuals (anyone 60+) especially since there has been no statements saying vaccinated individuals stop the spread.

Good post. Looks like Ontario still needs to ramp up administration of the vaccine, but at least the trend is showing improvement:
108,563 doses administered yesterday.

COVID‑19 vaccines

Learn about Ontario’s COVID-19 vaccination program and how to book a vaccine.Updated COVID-19 vaccines are now availableFree updated COVID-19 vaccines and annual flu shots are now available to all eligible individuals aged 6 months and older.Learn where to get the updated COVID-19 vaccine.It is...

covid-19.ontario.ca

As far as increasing supply is concerned, I'm not sure what else Premier Ford thinks the Feds can / should do.

It's also refreshing to see a more conciliatory tone being struck by the Premier's office; a 6 Apr Phase 2 news release states:

"With a steady supply of the COVID-19 vaccine expected from the federal government, over nine million Ontarians will be offered their first vaccination between April and end of June 2021."

Ontario Newsroom

news.ontario.ca

 

[Loachman]

Hire more folks.

Call in the military.

Whatever it takes.

How many non-medical "folks" would feel comfortable inoculating real people, even with rudimentary training? What if one (or more) made a mistake? What if the injectees felt uncomfortable with first-time jabbers?

How many non-medical military members would feel comfortable inoculating real people, even with rudimentary training?? What if one (or more) made a mistake? What if the injectees felt uncomfortable with being stuck by people with more training to insert bayonets than needles?

 

[Altair]

How many non-medical "folks" would feel comfortable inoculating real people, even with rudimentary training? What if one (or more) made a mistake? What if the injectees felt uncomfortable with first-time jabbers?

How many non-medical military members would feel comfortable inoculating real people, even with rudimentary training?? What if one (or more) made a mistake? What if the injectees felt uncomfortable with being stuck by people with more training to insert bayonets than needles?

How many wouldn't?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

big difference between needing to hit a vein and jabbing into muscle mass. If you want to see real experts, ask an addict, they are damm good at finding and hitting a good vein.

 

[Loachman]

If you want to see real experts, ask an addict, they are damm good at finding and hitting a good vein.

There's the solution, then.

Meanwhile, in Kingston, there seems to be no vaccinator-shortage-related impediment: Vaccination efficiency, rate may mean fewer doses coming our way, Moore says.

 

[PMedMoe]

I have to wonder if the 87% of people over 80 are fully immunized or if they have only received the first of two shots.

 

[LittleBlackDevil]

Lets hope we all do the right thing and not make this a reality. [and probably some good luck wouldn't hurt]

Canada on track to surpass U.S. in number of new COVID cases relative to population

Canada on track to surpass U.S. in number of COVID cases relative to population

In a reversal of earlier pandemic trends, Canada is on the verge of matching — perhaps surpassing — the United States in the number of COVID-19 cases relative to its population.

It's almost as if lockdowns or their severity doesn't have a significant impact over the long-term on COVID infections. As far as I know, Canada never had any "maverick" jurisdictions like Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming which never imposed stay-at-home orders. Canada also doesn't have "reckless" "Neanderthal" states like Texas and Florida who "don't follow the science" and completely listed all COVID restrictions over a month ago (which the experts assured us would lead to "carnage"). As most Canadian provinces are under yet another stay-at-home order, you'd think that our numbers would be way lower versus catching up to the US.

 

[Loachman]

Funny, though, that those states that did not lock down harshly and/or have removed/relaxed restrictions have done better, or at least no worse, than those who did and have not damaged their economies to the extent of the restrictive states. Governors Abbott and De Santis will be easily re-elected, and Governor De Santis is being touted for a Presidential run in 2024.

Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo, former darling of the mainstream media and acclaimed as doing everything right, is now embroiled in twin scandals: causing mass deaths in nursing homes by jamming sick people into them while leaving a hospital ship almost empty, and numerous women accusing him of sexual impropriety.

Gavin Newsome may suffer recall; 1.5 million signatures were required to initiate that and, the last time I looked, over 2 million had been obtained.

People are also leaving New York and California for less-restrictive and less-taxed states like Florida and Texas, thus depriving New York and California of a good chunk of their tax base.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Benefits of government-imposed restraints overestimated; benefits of self-imposed restraints underestimated. Notwithstanding the efforts of media to portray every wild party and gathering as a representation of the whole, in places where people have access to low-risk (eg. out-of-doors) alternatives, they use them. In places where even those alternatives are closed, people might as well gather indoors where the beach and park police can't see them. Counter-productive.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Well if we ever have a "lockdown" please call me....restricting some movement and friggin' shopping habits is NOT a lockdown. Let's not pretend it is..

EDIT: meant to quote Little Black Devil.

 

[Good2Golf]

Well if we ever have a "lockdown" please call me....restricting some movement and friggin' shopping habits is NOT a lockdown. Let's not pretend it is..

EDIT: meant to quote Little Black Devil.

Yup.

Going out yesterday for a home-pharmacy-home out and back, the roads and stores certainly didn’t look like ‘Grey Zone’.

Did BC upgrade its lockdown to close wine yard tasting centres?

 

[Mick]

It's almost as if lockdowns or their severity doesn't have a significant impact over the long-term on COVID infections. As far as I know, Canada never had any "maverick" jurisdictions like Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming which never imposed stay-at-home orders. Canada also doesn't have "reckless" "Neanderthal" states like Texas and Florida who "don't follow the science" and completely listed all COVID restrictions over a month ago (which the experts assured us would lead to "carnage"). As most Canadian provinces are under yet another stay-at-home order, you'd think that our numbers would be way lower versus catching up to the US.

Actually, precisely 1 province has a stay-at-home order in effect. Most provinces have varying restrictions, but only Ontario has such an order in effect, and it's a bit early to be seeing any results, exactly 1 day in.

Alberta implemented stronger social gathering restrictions in December, and numbers decreased substantially after Christmas. Restrictions here have since been loosened, and numbers are climbing again, requiring another round of restrictions (implemented this week). Maybe it's just coincidence.

BC: no stay-at-home order. Outdoor dining and gatherings permitted.

COVID-19 guidance in B.C.

You don't need proof of vaccination to access businesses, events or services in B.C. You may need proof of vaccination for international travel.

www2.gov.bc.ca

AB: no stay-at-home order. Outdoor dining and gatherings permitted.

COVID-19 info for Albertans

Alberta is learning to live with COVID-19 while protecting the health care system and increasing vaccination rates.

www.alberta.ca

SK: no stay-at-home order. Outdoor dining and gatherings permitted, indoor gatherings permitted with certain restrictions, depending on municipalit

Public Health Orders | Re-Open Saskatchewan Plan | Government of Saskatchewan

The public health orders include measures and restrictions to mitigate the transmission of the COVID-19 virus.

www.saskatchewan.ca

MB: no stay-at-home order. Outdoor dining and gatherings permitted, 14 day self-isolation required if arriving from out-of-province

Province of Manitoba | Pandemic Response System

Province of Manitoba

manitoba.ca

ON: stay-at-home order in effect.

QC: no stay-at-home order. Curfew and travel restrictions in effect based on region.

Measures in force

Consult the measures for certain areas of activity that are at risk of transmission (COVID-19). Such sectors are subject to selective restrictions.

www.quebec.ca

NB: no stay-at-home order. Outdoor and indoor dining and gatherings, permitted in 6.5 out of 7 zones. Indoor restrictions partially in effect in one zone.

COVID-19 Alert Levels in New Brunswick

COVID-19 Alert Levels in New Brunswick

www2.gnb.ca

NS: no stay-at-home order. Indoor and outdoor dining and gatherings permitted.

Reopening plan

Nova Scotia’s reopening plan takes a phased approach to safely easing restrictions.

novascotia.ca

PEI: no stay-at-home order. Indoor and outdoor dining and gatherings permitted.

COVID-19 Post Circuit Breaker Measures: March 13, 2021 | Government of Prince Edward Island

The following post circuit breaker measures are in place until further notice. The measures will be reassessed throughout. These restrictions override all other existing sector specific public health guidance. All businesses, services and organizations, as well as organizers of organized...

www.princeedwardisland.ca

NL: no stay-at-home-order. Outdoor and indoor dining and gatherings permitted.

Alert Level 2 - COVID-19

At Alert Level 2, our focus is to control transmission while maintaining health system capacity while we allow further re-opening of social and business activities. Regions currently in this Alert Level: None. Your responsibility in Alert Level 2 Follow Public Health Guidance. People can move...

www.gov.nl.ca

Edited for spelling, clarity

 

[Mick]

For the record, I'm not advocating stay-at-home orders or tightening of restrictions, although certain temporary restrictions seem to have impact where I live.

I'll echo what other posters have mentioned: it would be helpful if public health officials would offer more data supporting / explaining their recommendations.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Canada has the misfortune to have the USA as a neighbour, as we look at them and think our health care system is much more fair.

But we don't look at Europe who is leaps and bounds ahead of both Canada and the USA due to their two tier system.

Or Malaysia, I was highly impressed with their two tiered health system, both private and public.

 

[Loachman]

It looks like Ontario, or at least certain areas, may begin to offer vaccinations to people in previously-unrecognized high-risk occupations and working environments, and their families.

But I don't think that limiting shopping opportunities helps.

The Home Depot was jammed on the night before Doug Ford's latest lockdown kicked in, as loads of people rushed to buy a month's supply of wood and such.

For some, that was enough for decks and sheds and what may have been framing for a full second storey. I just needed enough for a small chest of drawers. I won't let somebody else pick out wood for me for curbside pick-up.

 

[RangerRay]

It's almost as if lockdowns or their severity doesn't have a significant impact over the long-term on COVID infections. As far as I know, Canada never had any "maverick" jurisdictions like Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming which never imposed stay-at-home orders. Canada also doesn't have "reckless" "Neanderthal" states like Texas and Florida who "don't follow the science" and completely listed all COVID restrictions over a month ago (which the experts assured us would lead to "carnage"). As most Canadian provinces are under yet another stay-at-home order, you'd think that our numbers would be way lower versus catching up to the US.

I have been watching some of those states, particularly ones that are about an hour away from my house with considerable alarm over the past year. Despite a smaller population and lower density than Winnipeg, their COVID cases and death numbers were through the roof compared to us. However, now that vaccinations are ramping up in those states, we aren’t looking so good. Soon, our numbers will reverse. So I would say it’s the vaccination rate in those states that is making them look good, not their lack of restrictions.