CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Good2Golf]

You know, especially with the latest with Trump and Putin’s coziness, a lack of any regard for Ukraine, one can’t help but consider whether the US can actually be considered a trustful nation, and *while I hadn’t some close to considering it before, can’t not consider that the effort to deliberately globalize Canada’s development, particularly resource-heavy, towards transitioning America to a minority export recipient. Maybe America deserves to be in the 25-35% of Canada’s exports, or even less, category. Maybe it’s time to have a serious and transparent talk with China, India, Asia and also Europe and determine if Canada can find some fortitude and improved productivity and global economic attractiveness to a diverse trade partner portfolio. The challenge would be addressing the not insignificant hardship in the pivot period (probably a 5-8 year effort to take a big chunk out of the CAC>US goods and services flow).

 

[Remius]

You know, especially with the latest with Trump and Putin’s coziness, a lack of any regard for Ukraine, one can’t help but consider whether the US can actually be considered a trustful nation, and whileminhandy some close to considering it before, can’t not consider that the effort to deliberately globalize Canada’s development, particularly resource-heavy, towards transitioning America to a minority export recipient. Maybe America deserves to be in the 25-35% of Canada’s exports, or even less, category. Maybe it’s time to have a serious and transparent talk with China, India, Asia and also Europe and determine if Canada can find some fortitude and improved productivity and global economic attractiveness to a diverse trade partner portfolio. The challenge would be addressing the not insignificant hardship in the pivot period (probably a 5-8 year effort to take a big chunk out of the CAC>US goods and services flow).

We’d be looking at 10 years minimum and this sort of exercises needs to transcend party lines. Strike while the fire is hot with Canadians feeling threatened and patriotic, premiers seemingly willing and almost all level of gvts with new mandates and soon to be new mandates.

 

[Kirkhill]

All Very nice and all. Back to the question posed by FB.

Will Alberta accept export taxes yes or no? That was what FB proposed. If the answer is yes then it can work if the answer in no then it would be a min starter no? I’m leaning that they will go with no.

Will Canada deliver Alberta Oil and Gas to Tidewater? If so why wouldn't Alberta expect to pay for that service? Mutually beneficial investments.

BC got a railway on the understanding that it would ship prairie produce - to include minerals like coal, oil, gas, potash and sulfur.

And seeing as how Trump has reintroduced Reciprocity to our trade vocabulary...



A 1911 Conservative campaign poster warns that the big American pig will gobble up the benefits of reciprocity, proposed by the Liberals.

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/reciprocity

Reciprocity was a free trade agreement between the United States and Canada. It mutually reduced import duties and protective tariffs on certain goods exchanged between the two countries. It was in effect from 1854 to 1866 and was controversial at times on both sides of the border. It was replaced in 1878 by the Conservative Party’s protectionist National Policy. It involved levying tariffs on imported goods to shield Canadian manufacturers from American competition. A narrower reciprocity agreement was introduced in 1935 and expanded in 1938. However, it was suspended in 1948 after both countries signed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).

 

[Good2Golf]

We’d be looking at 10 years minimum and this sort of exercises needs to transcend party lines. Strike while the fire is hot with Canadians feeling threatened and patriotic, premiers seemingly willing and almost all level of gvts with new mandates and soon to be new mandates.

I think we could see some notable changes in less than 10 years, TBH, especially if Trump keeps up with the tariffs. It would probably take 12-15 years to hit 50-50, and maybe 20-25 to bring exports to the US into the 25-30% range, but honestly, it shouldn’t be considered a bad thing…some pain yea? But America can’t be trusted for the next almost half decade. Time for Canada to decide…

 

[brihard]

Anyone got a feel for how much per year our military procurement is sending to the U.S.? Just in the sense of what it contributes to the trade balance Trump is so pissy about? We’re procuring some items that aren’t exactly cheap.

 

[Good2Golf]

Anyone got a feel for how much per year our military procurement is sending to the U.S.? Just in the sense of what it contributes to the trade balance Trump is so pissy about? We’re procuring some items that aren’t exactly cheap.

Probably 1-1.5B a year at the moment, but more when the cash flow for F-35, P-8, SPY-7 and other major projects kicks in, probably then closer to 4-5B/year….or about 2.5-3% of our oil and gas exports in the same periods.

 

[brihard]

Probably 1-1.5B a year at the moment, but more when the cash flow for F-35, P-8, SPY-7 and other major projects kicks in, probably then closer to 4-5B/year….or about 2.5-3% of our oil and gas exports in the same periods.

Thanks, I figured you’d have a good read.

 

[Remius]

Will Canada deliver Alberta Oil and Gas to Tidewater? If so why wouldn't Alberta expect to pay for that service? Mutually beneficial investments.

Danielle Smith has said as much about export taxes on energy.

 

[Kirkhill]

Anyone got a feel for how much per year our military procurement is sending to the U.S.? Just in the sense of what it contributes to the trade balance Trump is so pissy about? We’re procuring some items that aren’t exactly cheap.

88 F-35s at ~100 MUSD apiece = 9 BUSD once every 40 years
16 P8s at ~175 MUSD apiece = 5.9 BUSD once every 40 years
15 CH-47Fs = 1.15 BUSD once every 40 years
17 CC-130J-30s = 1.4 BUSD once every 40 years.

15 Aegis Spy Radars = 2.2 BUSD once every 40 years.

500 Oshkosh TAPVs built in Canada
LAVs built in Canada for use in the US...

Our defence budget has been in the 10 to 20 BUSD for the past 20 years or so.
Less than 20% of that has been spent on capital so 2 to 4 BUSD per annum.
And that includes trucks and vehicles built in Canada and Germany and Britain.

I would be surprised if we spent 1 BUSD annually in the US, overall.

 

[Good2Golf]

Your F35 numbers are off…US numbers are plane only. Multiply capital acquisition by 3-3.5 to capture life cycle support costs. Others probably need adjustment as well…

 

[Good2Golf]

Also, don’t forget, LM is a major subcontractor on CSC…(not just AEGIS and SPY-7)

 

[Kirkhill]

Danielle Smith has said as much about export taxes on energy.

Danielle Smith said she was against export taxes on energy in the context of punishing the US, and inherently Alberta, in an effort to protect Ontario. She also has reason to be reticent about the motives of her dance partners given that history of the relationship since 2015.

Despite the efforts to close in Alberta it is still Alberta oil payments that have been keeping Canada, and its equalization payment scheme, afloat.

Ontario, Quebec and Canada have been benefiting from Alberta oil under the current tax regime.

 

[Kirkhill]

Your F35 numbers are off…US numbers are plane only. Multiply capital acquisition by 3-3.5 to capture life cycle support costs. Others probably need adjustment as well…

Intentionally left life cycle numbers out because large portions of those are spent in Canada. I accept that the number is likely to be higher than 9 BUSD. But the total project is somewhere in the 70 BUSD/BCAD range with the vast majority of it spent on Canadian buildings, Canadian runways, Canadian fuel and Canadian salaries.

Even if you took the spare parts budget as 3.5 times 9 BUSD (30 BUSD) over 40 years you still are not reaching 1 BUSD annually on that one project.

I'll be generous and offer another Billion or 2 annually from the O&M budget.

Trump is looking at our 80 BUSD revenue stream from oil and wanting to know what he can sell us to off set that. 1-3 BUSD in military hardware isn't getting him very far.

 

[Remius]

Danielle Smith said she was against export taxes on energy in the context of punishing the US, and inherently Alberta, in an effort to protect Ontario. She also has reason to be reticent about the motives of her dance partners given that history of the relationship since 2015.

Despite the efforts to close in Alberta it is still Alberta oil payments that have been keeping Canada, and its equalization payment scheme, afloat.

Ontario, Quebec and Canada have been benefiting from Alberta oil under the current tax regime.

If you think they can play ball on that then cool. Something tells me they wouldn’t. Anymore than some political quarters from Quebec accepting pipelines or the end of supply management. Separatists and constitutional crisis threat types generally make a stink about those things. Albertans sound a lot more like Quebecers these days.

 

[JLB50]

I think we could see some notable changes in less than 10 years, TBH, especially if Trump keeps up with the tariffs. It would probably take 12-15 years to hit 50-50, and maybe 20-25 to bring exports to the US into the 25-30% range, but honestly, it shouldn’t be considered a bad thing…some pain yea? But America can’t be trusted for the next almost half decade. Time for Canada to decide…

Amidst all the insanity going on south of the border, one congressman is introducing a bill that, if passed, would allow a third term for Trump. Unlikely to happen? Who would have thought that Trump would have been re-elected after the January 6th Capitol attack.

 

[dapaterson]

Amidst all the insanity going on south of the border, one congressman is introducing a bill that, if passed, would allow a third term for Trump. Unlikely to happen? Who would have thought that Trump would have been re-elected after the January 6th Capitol attack.

As it would require a constitutional amendment, it would also need multiple states to pass it as well.

But if successful, 2028 could be Trump vs Obama.

 

[JLB50]

As it would require a constitutional amendment, it would also need multiple states to pass it as well.

But if successful, 2028 could be Trump vs Obama.

Forgot about the Obama factor.

 

[brihard]

Amidst all the insanity going on south of the border, one congressman is introducing a bill that, if passed, would allow a third term for Trump. Unlikely to happen? Who would have thought that Trump would have been re-elected after the January 6th Capitol attack.

Yeah, that went in a few weeks ago. Quite tellingly it allows for a third term only if the first two terms were non-consecutive. It’s a blatant pandering to Trump. It’s unconstitutional of course; the 22nd amendment expressly rules it out.

 

[Kirkhill]

If you think they can play ball on that then cool. Something tells me they wouldn’t. Anymore than some political quarters from Quebec accepting pipelines or the end of supply management. Separatists and constitutional crisis threat types generally make a stink about those things. Albertans sound a lot more like Quebecers these days.

I do, do I?

 

[JLB50]

Yeah, that went in a few weeks ago. Quite tellingly it allows for a third term only if the first two terms were non-consecutive. It’s a blatant pandering to Trump. It’s unconstitutional of course; the 22nd amendment expressly rules it out.

Although unlikely, repealing or altering an amendment is not impossible. 2/3 of both Houses and 3/4 approval from of states needed. Or…don’t put it past Trump, declare a national emergency of some sort, then declare martial law and “postpone” elections. It’s worked for a number of tinpot dictators.