US Presidential Election 2024 - Trump vs Harris - Vote Hard with a Vengence

[brihard]

Why is it some states are key battle grounds?

Is 1x vote for Trump in Pennsylvania worth 3x votes for Trump in Vermont or something like that?

Most states are already almost certainly going one way or another. Seven (ish- maybe eight if Iowa’s actually in play) states could go either way. Because of how the electoral college works, those handful of states can and will determine the overall result, barring some wild and unpredicted results in other states that are considered ‘safe’

Basically the same as when we talk about swing ridings.

 

[GR66]

Why is it some states are key battle grounds?

Is 1x vote for Trump in Pennsylvania worth 3x votes for Trump in Vermont or something like that?

The US Presidential election is not decided by the popular vote (i.e. the Presidential candidate that gets the most total votes wins the election).

Instead the President is elected by the Electoral College. Basically each State has a certain number of Electoral College votes that is determined by its population...the higher the population the more EC votes that state gets. With the exception of Maine and Nebraska all the other States are "winner take all" States. That means that whichever candidate gets the most votes in the state (even if only by one single vote) they get ALL the Electoral College votes for that State.

The number of EC votes per State runs from 3 (Alaska, Delaware, DC, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming) up to 40 for Texas and 54 for California. Some States traditionally vote for one party over the other (e.g. California and New York are typically Democrat States) so in all likelihood those EC votes will go where they traditionally go.

Some States however are very close races and could potentially swing either way. A small state like Vermont with just 3 EC votes won't make much of a difference, but larger states like Arizona (11 EC votes), Michigan (15), Georgia & North Carolina (each with 16) and Pennsylvania (19) can make the difference between winning and losing. All of these States are currently polling as very close races (both Trump and Harris are within a percentage point or two of each other) so these are the States that people will watch for in the results tomorrow night.

 

[Remius]

Hard to predict where this will go on the eve of the election.

The Dems have run a lacklustre campaign despite record breaking fundraising.

The GOP/Maga have never recovered from Biden dropping out and went from a disciplined campaign focused on the economy to a train wreck of weird messaging.

I’ve sensed a bit of a shift tilted towards Harris in the last week but that may only be surface level.

This could go either way and either side could win decisively.

 

[brihard]

Hard to predict where this will go on the eve of the election.

The Dems have run a lacklustre campaign despite record breaking fundraising.

The GOP/Maga have never recovered from Biden dropping out and went from a disciplined campaign focused on the economy to a train wreck of weird messaging.

I’ve sensed a bit of a shift tilted towards Harris in the last week but that may only be surface level.

This could go either way and either side could win decisively.

Yup. This is totally up in the air going into tomorrow.

 

[Lumber]

I've watched a ton of amateur pundits online who dive deep into what they call the secondary and tertiary indicators. Things like the rate and volumn which volunteers sign up. The quality of the online presence. The number of door knockers. The number of political signs on lawns, etc. Some of it is measurable, some of it is admittedly anecdotal, but it all points in the same direction: Harris' ground campaign has been the largest in history. In PA they were ringing doorbells at an average rate of 2000 doors per minute. The number of official Republicans who have either stated they don't support Trump, or stated they support Harris, or both, is also the largest in history.

I'm predicting a Harris win by a comfortable margin, but 2016 has taught me to be terrified, and not excited.

 

[KevinB]

Oddly this year I haven’t gotten any campaign literature in my mailbox.

I’m unsure why neither party seemed interested, and asking around in my area it has been similar.

 

[Blackadder1916]

Oddly this year I haven’t gotten any campaign literature in my mailbox.

I’m unsure why neither party seemed interested, and asking around in my area it has been similar.

The difference between "going postal" and "not going postal".

 

[Lumber]

Oddly this year I haven’t gotten any campaign literature in my mailbox.

I’m unsure why neither party seemed interested, and asking around in my area it has been similar.

I heard a story from a few people Republican that got stopped by two canvassers who weren't wearing any swag to identify who they were canvassing for. Before they could announce themselves he asked them "You fellas with Harris?", "Uh, yea, how'd you know?", "Hyuh, because you are the only ones canvassing."

 

[dimsum]

Oddly this year I haven’t gotten any campaign literature in my mailbox.

I’m unsure why neither party seemed interested, and asking around in my area it has been similar.

Are you in a state that is solidly for one party or the other?

 

[OldSolduer]

Actually I’d rather have Darth Vader run. His platform is pretty straightforward.

Together we will rule the galaxy!!

 

[dimsum]

Actually I’d rather have Darth Vader run. His platform is pretty straightforward.

Together we will rule the galaxy!!

Cthulhu for President of the United States of America 2028

Why vote for the lesser evil? Cthulhu is charting No Way Forward to depopulate the planet and make America weird again. Official USA campaign website.

www.cthulhuforamerica.com

 

[OldSolduer]

Cthulhu for President of the United States of America 2028

Why vote for the lesser evil? Cthulhu is charting No Way Forward to depopulate the planet and make America weird again. Official USA campaign website.

www.cthulhuforamerica.com

THAT good sir is hilarious!!! Well played!!

Actually that Admiral who says “it’s a trap” is a decent candidate too

 

[KevinB]

PBS final polls has Harris 4 points up.

Harris has 4-point lead over Trump in final PBS News/NPR/Marist election poll

On the eve of the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris has the support of 51 percent of likely voters to former President Donald Trump’s 47 percent – a lead just outside the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error.

www.pbs.org

 

[lenaitch]

Oddly this year I haven’t gotten any campaign literature in my mailbox.

I’m unsure why neither party seemed interested, and asking around in my area it has been similar.

The parties have probably determined that online 'canvassing', fundraising, etc. is a lot cheaper, more effective, provides contact information and yields better analytics.

 

[suffolkowner]

I've watched a ton of amateur pundits online who dive deep into what they call the secondary and tertiary indicators. Things like the rate and volumn which volunteers sign up. The quality of the online presence. The number of door knockers. The number of political signs on lawns, etc. Some of it is measurable, some of it is admittedly anecdotal, but it all points in the same direction: Harris' ground campaign has been the largest in history. In PA they were ringing doorbells at an average rate of 2000 doors per minute. The number of official Republicans who have either stated they don't support Trump, or stated they support Harris, or both, is also the largest in history.

I'm predicting a Harris win by a comfortable margin, but 2016 has taught me to be terrified, and not excited.

Its 2016 that makes me think Harris is going to win. I think that is where the momentum is.

 

[brihard]

Well, the day is here. As the late Ray Arnold said, “hold on to your butts”.

 

[dapaterson]

Remember, remember, the fifth of November...

 

[mariomike]

Well, the day is here.

I have money riding on it.

My wife voted with her "feelings". Not being eligible to do so myself, I bet my money on Minority Rule.

Although Team Red has not won the Popular Vote in 20 years, my $ is on them winning the Electoral College.

Since the 25 least populated states have about 16 per cent of the population, a sixth of the country can control the Senate. Therefore, my $ is on Team Red taking the Senate.

That will give Team Red control of the Supreme Court.

Less certain about the House of Representatives, but my money is still on Team Red.

I've lost bets before, so lets see what happens!

 

[KevinB]

The biggest question to me is how strong is the Never Trump movement.

Are most of those voters going to be willing to chance a USSC change from 4 years of Harris ? I know several who are still considering voting for Trump simply due to that fact alone.

For Republicans: Thomas is 76, and Alito is 74, Chief Justice Roberts is 69.
For Democrat: Sotomayor is 70, and Kagan is 64

Other Republicans: Kavanaugh is 59, Gorsuch is 57, Barret is 52, and the last Democrat Brown is 54.


So Thomas would be 80 and Alito 78, the loss of those 2 would bring the court to 4-5 R/D.

Many never Trumpers are asking themselves can at least Alito make it (most NT’s want Thomas gone simple as he’s been so visibly influenced by his wife and big money favors) - but ideally not gone under a Harris Presidency.

For me, who’s livelihood can go away with a change in gun laws, it’s a tough decision to make, and it isn’t with a clear conscience that I am going to vote for Harris - but it is will a much clearer conscience that if I was going to vote to DJT. So Country over Party, and over self (if that makes sense).

 

[Remius]

The biggest question to me is how strong is the Never Trump movement.

Are most of those voters going to be willing to chance a USSC change from 4 years of Harris ? I know several who are still considering voting for Trump simply due to that fact alone.

For Republicans: Thomas is 76, and Alito is 74, Chief Justice Roberts is 69.
For Democrat: Sotomayor is 70, and Kagan is 64

Other Republicans: Kavanaugh is 59, Gorsuch is 57, Barret is 52, and the last Democrat Brown is 54.


So Thomas would be 80 and Alito 78, the loss of those 2 would bring the court to 4-5 R/D.

Many never Trumpers are asking themselves can at least Alito make it (most NT’s want Thomas gone simple as he’s been so visibly influenced by his wife and big money favors) - but ideally not gone under a Harris Presidency.

For me, who’s livelihood can go away with a change in gun laws, it’s a tough decision to make, and it isn’t with a clear conscience that I am going to vote for Harris - but it is will a much clearer conscience that if I was going to vote to DJT. So Country over Party, and over self (if that makes sense).

You sound like Harrison Ford.

Powerful message.