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The War in Ukraine

Videos are beginning to surface with Ukrainian troops in Belgorod Oblast. A new penetration?
I’ll wait for more on that before thinking it’s anything more than an opportunity optic grab. Right now it’s word of Georgian Legion in a single border village; if we see Ukrainian Army regulars pushing beyond we’ll know it’s maybe something.

Separate note, I’ve seen a few videos now of Ukrainian Army recovery teams hauling back broken vehicles. Interesting if indicator of logistical competence (they planned for this and had the kit in place), and confidence operating high value targets like recovery vehicles in Russian territory.
 
RUS independent media: some Kursk civvies being evacuated as USSR 2.0 cranks up "counter-terror" operation as emergency declared in area ....
... while RUS state media sums it up this way as of this morning (archived link)
Russian units have prevented attempts by Ukrainian mobile armed groups to penetrate deep into Russian territory in the Kursk Region, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

According to it, units from Battlegroup North and reserves have been thwarting Ukrainian attempts to break through with army aviation and artillery near Ivashkovskoye, Malaya Loknya and Olgovka in the Kursk Region.

Russian aviation strikes Ukrainian reserves in Sumy Region​

Russian aviation and missile troops delivered a strike on Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy Region, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
According to it, the strike was delivered on Ukrainian personnel and hardware near Nikolayevo-Daryino, Guevo, Lyubimovka, Zeleny Shlyakh and Sverdlikovo in the Sumy Region.

Ukrainian losses in Kursk Region surpass 1,100 troops, 20 tanks​


The total losses of the Ukrainian armed forces in the Kursk area have amounted up to 1,120 troops and 140 units of armored hardware, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
According to the military agency, since the onset of combat in the Kursk area, the adversary has also lost 22 tanks, 20 armored personnel carriers, eight infantry fighting vehicles, 88 armored fighting vehicles, as well as 13 motor vehicles, 20 self-propelled missile systems, a multiple launch rocket system and six field guns.

Ukrainian army loses up to 175 troops, 10 tanks in Kursk border area in 24 hours​

Ukrainian forces have lost up to 175 personnel and 36 armored units in the Kursk area in 24 hours, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
According to the military agency, the losses have included 10 tanks, three armored personnel carriers, two infantry fighting vehicles, 21 armored fighting vehicles, a motor vehicle, three field artillery guns and a multiple launch rocket system.

Russian forces wipe out 15 mercenaries hitting stationing point in Sudzha​

Russian units, using a rocket with a thermobaric warhead, delivered a strike on a stationing point of mercenaries on the southern outskirts of Sudzha in the Kursk Region, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
According to the military agency, 15 foreign mercenaries have been eliminated.

Su-30SM, Su-35S fighters deliver bomb strike on Ukrainian units in Russia’s Kursk Region​

The crews of Su-30SM and Su-35S fighter jets delivered a strike on Ukrainian personnel and hardware in Russia’s borderline Kursk Region overnight, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
Having received a confirmation from reconnaissance that all targets have been eliminated, the crews successfully returned to their home base, the military agency noted.
 
So the airfield didn’t have a lot of hangars.
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Then when you look at what was hit on Planet Labs

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It doesn’t appear that there are any other main structures in the area. So aircraft may have been on some of the taxiways but no real hangars.
 
So the airfield didn’t have a lot of hangars.
View attachment 87173

Then when you look at what was hit on Planet Labs

View attachment 87174

It doesn’t appear that there are any other main structures in the area. So aircraft may have been on some of the taxiways but no real hangars.
Understood.
What’s more valuable to hit, the warehouses or the runways and planes parked on the runways?
Destroy the planes and possibly the pilots or destroy the ammunition but leave the planes and piliers?
 

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Just to clarify what was hit, it wasn’t the regional Lipetsky airport, it was the military Военньій (Voyennyy) military airfield to the southwest of the regional airport. The munitions storage area to the North/NW of the airfield was what got smacked hard. I suspect UKR USB OPSEC is also not advertising how many of the Su-35/Su-25/An-72/Mi-8/MiG-31/etc. were destroyed on the main tarmac of the airfield.


Some captures of the airfield and some of the aircraft on the base…

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Still trying to confirm that those are MiG-31s I see in the eastern end of the tarmac…but they look like it.

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This seems like a pretty sober assessment of the Kursk offensive, a week in.

 
Here’s one to watch. If this proves accurate, this would be a new Ukrainian axis in the Kursk front, from the border east to Rylsk roughly aligned with the E-83 highway. It’s reasonable to expect that Russian defences in this area are likely quite thin for at least the first few towns. This effort, if real and not just an opportunistic small-unit grab of a border village, would likely meet up with the existing push northwest towards Korenevo.

 
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