It really doesn't matter what Trump 'wants', Ukraine will not agree even if US aid is cut off. And Poland/Baltics/Nordics won't put up with the US dictating NATO direction and limitations much longer and will formulate their own intervention according to their other treaty commitments. And when the troops on the zero line/the Ukrainian society refuse to do the bidding of the US.
Not to mention that Putin will not accept anything that does not equal the destruction of the Ukrainian state and identity within his lifetime. Neither party is operating under the same moral/economic or other norms that the 'west' is, so thinking in our terms when predicting actions or responses it not accurate or helpful. There are few people who truly understand the current Russian mindset/belief structure/way of thinking in the US with the clout to be chosen by, and put in, a place where they can materially affect Trumps foreign policy.
So my prediction is there will be 'western' boots on the ground/in the air of Ukraine, a significant uptick in the intensity and scale of combat, more Russian WMD threats (which will be ignored by the intervening governments as they are hollow). And if we are all incredibly lucky, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela, South Africa and of course China will see the writing on the wall and not also get more involved.
The one way I see that the US can avoid that path is the immediate and thorough financial and kinetic enforcement of all sanctions and secondary sanctions by the US and NATO. Including banning any company, US or otherwise, from doing ANY business with any NATO country - and their executive leadership being banned from travel to or through any NATO country until Ukraine's borders are restored and their infrastructure rebuilt (or until Ukraine requests the ban of 'reformed' corporations and companies etc be specifically lifted on an individual basis.)
To include the seizure and disposal or destruction of any vessel, aircraft or land vehicle involved in sanction/secondary sanction banned activities or goods transport. And the punishment of any NATO government flouting or allowing to be ignored, this tactic by the cessation of any sales or support of US weapons/components.
But that is unfortunately a pipe dream as there is no political courage to risk annoying their financial supporters or electorate (which they have yet to ask their opinions from and are ignoring as much as possible).
Notably this does not include the various bilateral agreements between Ukraine and more than a few other European countries
www.bbc.com
