The War in Ukraine

[Skysix]

In the east, Russia is slowly winning. Not just Meat wave assaults, but drones and glide bombs, along with artillery is grinding down the Ukrainians. Not helped by poor planning and leadership when it comes to defenses and fortifications.

Glide bombs need to be countered even more urgently than 155 supplies increased.

 

[RangerRay]

I don't know what the larger plan is. The Draw Down funding was expiring and so it needed to be used or lost - and finally POTUS used it -- we had lost lend lease which should have been the path to victory, but wasn't renewed last year as it was not being used.

Finally the Peace Plan

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843042937132998705

Dammit, how do you open those X threads without logging onto X again?

 

[Czech_pivo]

I found this nugget of information interesting on the daily assessment from the ISW.

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun stated on October 8 that a limited number of North Korean military personnel are likely operating near occupied Donetsk City.[11] Kim stated that North Korea likely deployed several military personnel to Ukraine to support Russia's war effort in response to a report that a Ukrainian missile strike near occupied Donetsk City killed several North Korean military officials on October 3.[12] Head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, stated on October 5 that a small number of North Korean military personnel, mainly engineering personnel, are operating in occupied Donetsk Oblast and are repairing or somehow improving the quality of a large amount of low-quality ammunition that North Korea provided to the Russian military.[13]

 

[KevinB]

Rather sobering summary.

Ukraine War, 10 October 2024: Exchanging Terrain for Losses

Hello everybody!

open.substack.com

 

[KevinB]

I found this nugget of information interesting on the daily assessment from the ISW.

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun stated on October 8 that a limited number of North Korean military personnel are likely operating near occupied Donetsk City.[11] Kim stated that North Korea likely deployed several military personnel to Ukraine to support Russia's war effort in response to a report that a Ukrainian missile strike near occupied Donetsk City killed several North Korean military officials on October 3.[12] Head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, stated on October 5 that a small number of North Korean military personnel, mainly engineering personnel, are operating in occupied Donetsk Oblast and are repairing or somehow improving the quality of a large amount of low-quality ammunition that North Korea provided to the Russian military.[13]

At least 5 have already been killed.
North Korea also signed a mutual defense pact with Russia that could lead to significant amounts of NK troops to feed the RuAF meat grinder.

 

[Skysix]

Compare this with the actions of drone operators in Kherson

Pure evil. Even given that as far as Russia is concerned there is no such thing as a war crime. And the West's response?

I'll give y'all one guess....

 

[GR66]

More Russian war crimes...

Russian troops execute nine surrendered Ukrainian soldiers

On October 10, Russian forces executed nine Ukrainian soldiers who had surrendered in the Kursk region, according to the Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState. The incident reportedly took place near the settlement of Zelenyi Shlyakh, with the group describing it as a gross violation of...

defence-blog.com

This amid some signs of softening in Western support for Ukraine and the uncertainty of the upcoming US election and its potential impact on ongoing US material support for Ukraine.

Anyone who thinks that a Russia that is capable of such systematic atrocities against Ukrainians (both military and civilian) will stop being a threat to the West even if the Ukrainian war is forced into some type of pause (because I'm 100% certain that any imposed cease-fire will NOT be the end as far as Russia is concerned) is extremely naive (and I'm being extremely polite here).

 

[GR66]

Mystery surrounds Su-34 crash in Russia

A Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber has reportedly crashed under mysterious circumstances, according to Russian pilot Ilya Tumanov, who shared the news on his Telegram channel Fighterbomber on Saturday, October 12. Tumanov confirmed that the crew of the aircraft did not survive the crash. "Rest in...

defence-blog.com

Seems like 100% speculation with no evidence to back it up but one Russian blog is suggesting the SU-34 may have been shot down by a Ukrainian F-16:

However, another Russian Telegram channel, VDV for Honesty and Justice, which is linked to Russia’s armed forces, claimed that the Su-34 was shot down by a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet. The channel suggests the incident occurred while the Russian aircraft was conducting a bombing run approximately 50 kilometers from the frontline in Ukraine.

Significant (and totally freaking AWESOME) if true.

 

[Rifleman62]

Russian troops execute nine surrendered Ukrainian soldiers

Life means absolutely nothing to the Russian soldier or "leadership". let alone Putin.

 

[Skysix]

Typical squaddie, but some tidbits of hard won LSCO kit and TTP

BigMacs BattleBlog.

🇬🇧 🇺🇦 War in Ukraine. One volunteer Drone operators account of what we do here... And my puppy Onesock. Drone fund: ***PAYPAL IS MUCH PREFERRED*** ► PayPal - [Email: joecrowpanama@gmail.com] ► You might recognise me from my Lindybeige interviews.

youtube.com

 

[Skysix]

Mystery surrounds Su-34 crash in Russia

A Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber has reportedly crashed under mysterious circumstances, according to Russian pilot Ilya Tumanov, who shared the news on his Telegram channel Fighterbomber on Saturday, October 12. Tumanov confirmed that the crew of the aircraft did not survive the crash. "Rest in...

defence-blog.com

Seems like 100% speculation with no evidence to back it up but one Russian blog is suggesting the SU-34 may have been shot down by a Ukrainian F-16:

Significant (and totally freaking AWESOME) if true.

Or possibly friendly fire. Awaiting photo verification.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Typical squaddie, but some tidbits of hard won LSCO kit and TTP

BigMacs BattleBlog.

🇬🇧 🇺🇦 War in Ukraine. One volunteer Drone operators account of what we do here... And my puppy Onesock. Drone fund: ***PAYPAL IS MUCH PREFERRED*** ► PayPal - [Email: joecrowpanama@gmail.com] ► You might recognise me from my Lindybeige interviews.

youtube.com

He's trimmed down a bit...

 

[Kirkhill]

Typical squaddie, but some tidbits of hard won LSCO kit and TTP

BigMacs BattleBlog.

🇬🇧 🇺🇦 War in Ukraine. One volunteer Drone operators account of what we do here... And my puppy Onesock. Drone fund: ***PAYPAL IS MUCH PREFERRED*** ► PayPal - [Email: joecrowpanama@gmail.com] ► You might recognise me from my Lindybeige interviews.

youtube.com

Best moment
Screen freeze.

...

Anybody else expecting to hear the cast of The Life of Brian break out in chorus?

 

[Skysix]

At what point will NATO, the UN or ANY country step in as a humanitarian intervention?

My guess is nobody has the guts to ignore the US and do so.

And the wests EW capabilities are far behind Russia (always have been) so even gifting a metric shit ton of EW assets to Ukrainian border towns is unlikely to be able to prevent this.

Perhaps a homing drone that can back track the control signals and take out the drone operator?

 

[KevinB]

At what point will NATO, the UN or ANY country step in as a humanitarian intervention?

Seriously?

My guess is nobody has the guts to ignore the US and do so.

It’s not just the US that is behaving badly here.

And the wests EW capabilities are far behind Russia (always have been) so even gifting a metric shit ton of EW assets to Ukrainian border towns is unlikely to be able to prevent this.

You give the Russian EW capability much more credit that it deserves.

This issue is more that the West is sending mostly older systems and not even enough of those to do anything.

Perhaps a homing drone that can back track the control signals and take out the drone operator?

 

[Skysix]

Seriously?

It’s not just the US that is behaving badly here.

You give the Russian EW capability much more credit that it deserves.

This issue is more that the West is sending mostly older systems and not even enough of those to do anything.

Kinda seriously, yes. There are precedents with intervening in other conflicts to prevent humanitarian abuses. If a tripwire strategy in the Baltics is tactically and politically sound, why would the concept and expected result(s) not apply to a western countries troops (the French Foreign Legion for example) manning an electonic 'picket fence' paralleling the front line in Ukraine?

The US is far from alone or being the worst (cough, Germany, cough) in its' (in my opinion) cowardice as a result of Russian info-ops and political posturing/bullying - allowing Russia to dictate the terms and terrain of any conflict that may affect Russia. Turkey reacted to an airspace violation very quickly and kinetically and the probing stopped. The Wagner etc. Russian proxy mercenaries FAFO'd with the USAF and SF in Syria and again a much reduced challenging anti-US posture in the region resulted. NATO kinetically intervened in Kosovo - although the 2nd order effects of that was the loss of its reputation as a defensive alliance which argueably may have contributed to the current mess.

I am on the fence regarding the Russian EW capability but tend to put more faith in the assessments of 3rd party groups like RUSI and ISW than the party line over here. Frankly, I would be surprised if there was not a significant 'unofficial' presence of sigint and EW SME's in Ukraine gathering intel to relay back to developers in the west - but that still puts us in a reactionary stance. It is a back and forth development/fielding race in the same way drones are and I suspect an analogy of Moore's Law applies to both. I remain unconvinced that we are leading in that race however. It is highly improbable that in every technology the west is consistently ahead of Russia. 90%? Sure. But drones (not including UAV's) in particular and EW (with the exception of Wild Weasel missions etc) not so much.

 

[KevinB]

Russian EW for the most part is broad spectrum jamming. Their DF and SigInt capabilities are fairly 1980’s vintage. The only efforts they seem to have put in is ILS and Commercial GPS spamming

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Russian EW for the most part is broad spectrum jamming. Their DF and SigInt capabilities are fairly 1980’s vintage. The only efforts they seem to have put in is ILS and Commercial GPS spamming

And don't forget that several of their newer systems have been captured in Ukraine and I would imagine that NATO specialists have been all over them by now.

 

[KevinB]

And don't forget that several of their newer systems have been captured in Ukraine and I would imagine that NATO specialists have been all over them by now.

TBH one of their newer ones was rusting out at Ft Meade before the invasion. I didn’t see what all the fuss was about.

 

[KevinB]

Russian EW for the most part is broad spectrum jamming. Their DF and SigInt capabilities are fairly 1980’s vintage. The only efforts they seem to have put in is ILS and Commercial GPS spamming

Which then you have to wonder why go after Commercial Aircraft if they aren’t at war with the West right?

If any other country tried even once the shit Russia does daily to the West, it would be a crater.