The War in Ukraine

[GR66]

Reports from one blogger [insert grain of salt] that the Ukrainians have severed supply lines supporting 3,000 Russian troops in the Kursk region. Interesting if true as my understanding is that a notable portion of the Russian forces defending Kursk are conscripts vs. contract fighters which could have an outsized moral effect should they be killed/captured.

Ukrainian troops sever Russian supply lines in Kursk region

The Ukrainian military has successfully disrupted enemy logistics in the Kursk region of Russia, according to volunteer and blogger Serhiy Sternenko. This operation has involved cutting off and encircling a Russian grouping estimated to consist of 3,000 troops, effectively isolating them in the...

defence-blog.com

 

[GR66]

Ukrainian volunteer groups supplying drones to take out Russian ISR UAV's...and apparently being successful.

Volunteer-backed drones take out over 100 Russian spy unmanned aircraft

Ukrainian interception drones have shot down more than a hundred Russian reconnaissance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) in the past few weeks, according to volunteer and blogger Serhiy Sternenko. These drones, modified for air interception and funded by donors as part of an improvised air defense...

defence-blog.com

We're seeing a constant and rapid evolution of UAV warfare in Ukraine. No idea where this will ultimately end up, but the key takeaway to me is that we can't just take a snapshot of what's happening in Ukraine at any given moment and adopt the types of UAV's that suit that particular situation. We need to create a structure (and supply chain) that can create an flexible capability that can adapt to rapid changes on the battlefield.

As a related note, on a recent episode of The Irregular Warfare podcast there was an observation by Dr. Jack Watling from RUSI that from his observations in Ukraine the most effective use of UAVs is coming from specialized units that are deployed forward to support specific objectives rather than embedded UAV units within units. Something to think about when drawing up our napkin force structures.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Reports from one blogger [insert grain of salt] that the Ukrainians have severed supply lines supporting 3,000 Russian troops in the Kursk region. Interesting if true as my understanding is that a notable portion of the Russian forces defending Kursk are conscripts vs. contract fighters which could have an outsized moral effect should they be killed/captured.

Ukrainian troops sever Russian supply lines in Kursk region

The Ukrainian military has successfully disrupted enemy logistics in the Kursk region of Russia, according to volunteer and blogger Serhiy Sternenko. This operation has involved cutting off and encircling a Russian grouping estimated to consist of 3,000 troops, effectively isolating them in the...

defence-blog.com

Meanwhile in the real world....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830251231358718238

The Kursk adventure is serving as a useful distraction from the general collapse that is ongoing in the East. It also did not draw the main body of Russian troops away from their main effort.

Ugledar under major barrage this morning.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830221183998189714

 

[suffolkowner]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830281314445959500

NATO remains an unequal alliance why are France and Italy contributing so little to Ukraine?

 

[FJAG]

As a related note, on a recent episode of The Irregular Warfare podcast there was an observation by Dr. Jack Watling from RUSI that from his observations in Ukraine the most effective use of UAVs is coming from specialized units that are deployed forward to support specific objectives rather than embedded UAV units within units. Something to think about when drawing up our napkin force structures.

Very interesting podcast. Even though its directed at the SOF community, it has general applicability throughout the conventional force.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Meanwhile in the real world....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830251231358718238

The Kursk adventure is serving as a useful distraction from the general collapse that is ongoing in the East. It also did not draw the main body of Russian troops away from their main effort.

Ugledar under major barrage this morning.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830221183998189714

I an seeing criticism of a complete lack of premade defense lines in front of Pokrovsk, despite that clearly being the intent of the Russians. the blogger was criticizing the fact that the lines were not being made by engineering equipment and personal before the retreat and now Ukrainians are forced to dig with just shovels, which means the fortifications are not strong enough.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

I an seeing criticism of a complete lack of premade defense lines in front of Pokrovsk, despite that clearly being the intent of the Russians. the blogger was criticizing the fact that the lines were not being made by engineering equipment and personal before the retreat and now Ukrainians are forced to dig with just shovels, which means the fortifications are not strong enough.

I think the hope for the Ukranians was that more of the Russian fighting strength would have been reassigned to retake Kursk.

This didn't materialize and hence they're on the backfoot with nowhere near the depth they need to slow the advance toward Pokrovsk.

The Russians, in a rare feat of brilliance, didn't take the bait. For now, the Ukrainians need to regroup and reinforce before the mud and snow make for a long winter.

 

[KevinB]

I think the hope for the Ukranians was that more of the Russian fighting strength would have been reassigned to retake Kursk.

This didn't materialize and hence they're on the backfoot with nowhere near the depth they need to slow the advance toward Pokrovsk.

The Russians, in a rare feat of brilliance, didn't take the bait. For now, the Ukrainians need to regroup and reinforce before the mud and snow make for a long winter.

In the last two days Russia has had to move more units to Kursk. As the Ukrainians still have the upper hand in most areas of Kursk.

One aspect jumped out at me, ever time the Russians push into Ukraine, the West makes additional equipment available. Ukraine may find that it is better off holding Kursk and threatening the surrounding Russian areas, than sending more troops for defensive depth the Donbas.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

In the last two days Russia has had to move more units to Kursk. As the Ukrainians still have the upper hand in most areas of Kursk.

One aspect jumped out at me, ever time the Russians push into Ukraine, the West makes additional equipment available. Ukraine may find that it is better off holding Kursk and threatening the surrounding Russian areas, than sending more troops for defensive depth the Donbas.

You might be right. I think this may be a strategi PR win at the expense of a tactical loss in Donbass.

I guess time will tell if it worked out, when we end up seeing more Western resolve materialize.

 

[quadrapiper]

I think the hope for the Ukranians was that more of the Russian fighting strength would have been reassigned to retake Kursk.

Do the Russians have the capacity to move a meaningful force from the lines in Ukraine to Kursk in any sort of hurry?

 

[KevinB]

You might be right. I think this may be a strategi PR win at the expense of a tactical loss in Donbass.

I guess time will tell if it worked out, when we end up seeing more Western resolve materialize.

It seems to have worked in one way, as there has now been a near blanket allowance for Ukraine now to use most of the Western weapons in Russia.

But at the end of the day Ukraine needs a lot more Rocket and Missile as well as 155mm tube artillery systems provided to them, and most importantly more ammo for them.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Do the Russians have the capacity to move a meaningful force from the lines in Ukraine to Kursk in any sort of hurry?

Not necessarily a passage of lines out, more a "65th Conscript Relief Battalion is going to Adiivka Kursk" situation.

Any hindrance the Ukrainians can put on the Russian ability to reinforce their front lines is diverting strength from the assault in eastern Donbass.

 

[KevinB]

Do the Russians have the capacity to move a meaningful force from the lines in Ukraine to Kursk in any sort of hurry?

Yes. They have some fairly unfettered LoC’s to withdraw troops and shift them.

Russia so far has been very reluctant to do so, even the Battalions move in the last two days are from their Reserves —

I suspect they had kept those back hoping to use them to avoid the culmination of their efforts at Pokrovsk, but as the Ukrainian efforts in Kursk haven’t stopped, I think they decided that it is more important to stop that as opposed to pushing deeper into the Donbas at this point.

 

[Skysix]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830281314445959500

NATO remains an unequal alliance why are France and Italy contributing so little to Ukraine?

Is the US number military aid only? Spent outside the US (the only really comparible value and even then only if adjusted for purchasing price parity) or recapitalisation of old stock with contracts In the US to US businesses to replace what we dumped on Ukraine instead of paying to decommission it?

Are those numbers per capita? Per %GDP? Do they include non military aid or support for refugees?

Not disagreeing with the premise but not enough information to be useful.

 

[Skysix]

Yes. They have some fairly unfettered LoC’s to withdraw troops and shift them.

Russia so far has been very reluctant to do so, even the Battalions move in the last two days are from their Reserves —

I suspect they had kept those back hoping to use them to avoid the culmination of their efforts at Pokrovsk, but as the Ukrainian efforts in Kursk haven’t stopped, I think they decided that it is more important to stop that as opposed to pushing deeper into the Donbas at this point.

Russia (aka Putin) does not give a rats ass about the Kursk people, land or infrastructure. Only about finding a way to declare at least partial goals met (and is already preparing the population to accept the loss and the partial 'win') before the election in case Snake Sullivan (and his cohort) lose their influence within NATO and the west turns up the heat. It is all about his personal 1st, regime 2nd, country last survival.

He is playing for time and throwing as much as he can into getting at least Donbas. We must not anthropomorphize our values and logic on his warped mind. The loss of land by Ukraine is, while not trivial, not worth bankrupting their military/human resources over. Trading land for time is a tactic that has been used in Ukraine for hundreds of years.

The Kursk operation is as much, if not more, a psyop aimed at the Russian population and western talking heads as it is the creation of a buffer zone/negotiation position. We need to stop thinking in terms of square miles of territory and start thinking in terms of long term population/demographic survival. Because, in an attritional/genocidal war, that matters more.

 

[Skysix]

It seems to have worked in one way, as there has now been a near blanket allowance for Ukraine now to use most of the Western weapons in Russia.

But at the end of the day Ukraine needs a lot more Rocket and Missile as well as 155mm tube artillery systems provided to them, and most importantly more ammo for them.

And most importantly of all, NO RESTRICTIONS ON THEIR USE!

In fact, said restrictions have not only caused the deaths of thousands of Ukrainians, but incentivized the development of home made alternatives. Which as not subject to restrictions of use have predictably ensured deeper and harder attacks into Russia - theoretically violating the west's self imposed 'red lines' (as suggested by Putin) and increasing the (alleged but in practicality next to impossible) risk of a nuclear response. Pretty much the opposite of what the 'experts' in State and the National Security apparatus say they want.

Then again, said experts have been consistently wrong so much they should all be demoted.

And morally, protecting Russian military assets and infrastructure and civilians WHILE TURNING A BLIND EYE TO REPEATED GENOCIDAL ACTS AND WAR CRIMES AGAINST UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS is so far beyond the pale the US will never be forgiven by millions around the world

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I an seeing criticism of a complete lack of premade defense lines in front of Pokrovsk, despite that clearly being the intent of the Russians. the blogger was criticizing the fact that the lines were not being made by engineering equipment and personal before the retreat and now Ukrainians are forced to dig with just shovels, which means the fortifications are not strong enough.

They have pre-made fortifications, it's just that, the Russian Army is overruning them. They started at Avdiivka. The lines they occupy in the Donbass have been developed since 2014.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/zelenskyy-reports-progress-in-ukraine-s-three-pronged-defensive-line-measuring-2-000-kilometers-50400200.html

The Staff heard reports from commanders, including the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi and the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Anatoliy Barhylevych, on the situation on the battlefield, in particular on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Southern fronts, as well as the operations of the Marines.

Bahkmut, Marinka and Avdiivka have all been overrun. The Russians are also bombing faster than the new lines can be built.

Go on Google maps and actually zoom in on Avdiika to see the extent of the Defensive Works that were built by the Ukrainian Army. They were, to say, impressive.

 

[suffolkowner]

Is the US number military aid only? Spent outside the US (the only really comparible value and even then only if adjusted for purchasing price parity) or recapitalisation of old stock with contracts In the US to US businesses to replace what we dumped on Ukraine instead of paying to decommission it?

Are those numbers per capita? Per %GDP? Do they include non military aid or support for refugees?

Not disagreeing with the premise but not enough information to be useful.

total aid in euros not counting European union contribution. Doesnt matter which way you slice it Spain, Italy and France are at the bottom

Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.

www.ifw-kiel.de

 

[Skysix]

They have pre-made fortifications, it's just that, the Russian Army is overruning them. They started at Avdiivka. The lines they occupy in the Donbass have been developed since 2014.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/zelenskyy-reports-progress-in-ukraine-s-three-pronged-defensive-line-measuring-2-000-kilometers-50400200.html

Bahkmut, Marinka and Avdiivka have all been overrun. The Russians are also bombing faster than the new lines can be built.

Go on Google maps and actually zoom in on Avdiika to see the extent of the Defensive Works that were built by the Ukrainian Army. They were, to say, impressive.

View attachment 87708

Gee, perhaps the real problem is the lack of timely delivery of the PUBLICALY promised ammunition, air defense and other equipment that has allowed the extensive use of JDAM equivalents from safety.

Sorry, spicy today. Not aimed at you but at the substandard uninformed media coverage and the hypocritical posturing of our politicians.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Russia (aka Putin) does not give a rats ass about the Kursk people, land or infrastructure. Only about finding a way to declare at least partial goals met (and is already preparing the population to accept the loss and the partial 'win') before the election in case Snake Sullivan (and his cohort) lose their influence within NATO and the west turns up the heat. It is all about his personal 1st, regime 2nd, country last survival.

No joke, it's militarily irrelevant at this point. Now if they had managed to seize the Kursk NPP, which may have actually been the point of the entire Op, then it was a failure.

The Russian advance in the Donbass has slowly been gaining momentum since the Kursk Offensive.

He is playing for time and throwing as much as he can into getting at least Donbas. We must not anthropomorphize our values and logic on his warped mind. The loss of land by Ukraine is, while not trivial, not worth bankrupting their military/human resources over. Trading land for time is a tactic that has been used in Ukraine for hundreds of years.

The Kursk operation is as much, if not more, a psyop aimed at the Russian population and western talking heads as it is the creation of a buffer zone/negotiation position. We need to stop thinking in terms of square miles of territory and start thinking in terms of long term population/demographic survival. Because, in an attritional/genocidal war, that matters more.

Medvedev actually inadvertently made the case for the entire war the other day in one of his psychotic rants:







Read between the lines. Donbass is full of mineral wealth and Russia wants it for itself. Doesn't matter how many have to die to get it.