Robyn Urback,
writing in the Globe and Mail, says that there is a new level of excitement, now, in the US campaign, which is absent in Canada's politics:
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âJoyâ is working for the Kamala campaign, but it wonât work in Canadaâs current climate
Canadian politicians love to look down south and try to adopt Americaâs trends, debates and cultural wars as our own. They rarely fit, but it doesnât stop them from smashing the wrong puzzle pieces together with their fists and, for example,
announcing new Canadian gun control measures after a mass shooting in Texas.
Weâre already seeing it happen over the course of the U.S. presidential election campaign. Liberal MP Mark Gerretsen has been trying to
transpose the Democratsâ highly effective
âweirdâ label for Republicans onto Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, with little success. Indeed, itâs roughly as effective as trying to cheat off a fellow studentâs exam paper when the teacher has scrambled up the order of questions for each test.
And yet, they persist. CBC News
reported last week that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is looking to echo the message of joy and optimism that reverberated through the recent Democratic National Convention, in hopes that it might help lift the party up from its
17-point rut.
Itâs clear that the message is working for Vice-President Kamala Harris, who has managed to turn a race that President Joe Biden was poised to
lose into one she now
leads. In her speech to the convention, Ms. Harris spoke of a ânation ready to move forward,â and about fighting for the future of America while âguided by optimism and faith.â It was in stark contrast to the speech from former president Donald Trump to the Republican National Convention, in which he referenced Hannibal Lecter from
The Silence of the Lambs and called America a âdumping ground for the rest of the world.â
The optimism message is a winner for Ms. Harris both because of the messenger, and because of the timing. Ms. Harris is a fresh face for the top of the ticket; she resuscitated a dying campaign and brought with her the prospect of actual electoral success, which will naturally breed excitement, hope and joy. Her election would be historic for women in America, which in itself evokes emotion and enthusiasm. And the joy message works because it seems to genuinely suit Ms. Harrisâs personality, and voters know authenticity. Though Republicans briefly tried to
attack her for her laugh, that angle flopped and theyâve abandoned it; Ms. Harrisâs laugh is actually one of the more endearing things about her.
The message might not have taken off if the campaign had coincided with a more fraught social and economic atmosphere in the U.S. But generally speaking, things are good: violent crime, including murder, rape and aggravated assault, is dropping, according to FBI
data. Inflation is
slowing. The economy is
booming. There are still plenty of problems, of course, but when things are relatively stable, itâs easy to get excited about the possibility of even better. But when things are bad, itâs hard to convince voters to smile and celebrate the future; instead, they tend to gravitate toward politicians who mirror their frustrations and echo their anger.
Thatâs why a message of joy and optimism wonât work in the current Canadian climate. To be frank: things arenât great. The homicide rate in Canada has been steadily
rising over the past decade (though down slightly in 2023). Car theft is so ubiquitous that Costco is selling driveway security
bollards. Canada had the highest housing price-to-income ratio among Group of Seven countries, according to 2024 Q1
data compiled by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. One in five Canadians doesnât have access to regular primary health care. And though like the U.S., inflation in Canada is slowing, our per-person
growth is stagnant, and the unemployment rate, particularly among youth and new immigrants, is
rising. If Mr. Trudeau stood before a crowd of non-partisan Canadians and told them to rejoice over the great possibilities and opportunities Canada holds, heâd probably get booed out of the room. They want to hear him first explain why those arrested for car theft keep getting
let out on bail.
But even if the climate was right, Mr. Trudeau would be the wrong messenger. His face is not fresh â itâs nine years in â and itâs the one that many voters hold responsible for the myriad social and economic problems currently plaguing the country. A new Liberal leader would potentially be able to pull it off, but he or she would still be burdened with the weight of the incumbent governmentâs baggage. And needless to say, it wouldnât work for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre either (not that there are any indications that he would try); his personality doesnât suit a âhope and changeâ spirit. Instead, he has quite aptly tapped into the frustrations of the Canadian electorate, and echoed them back to demonstrate that they are being heard.
This is called understanding Canadaâs unique conditions, and tailoring a message distinct from that in the United States. We are a whole separate country after all; we donât need to cheat off of Americaâs exam paper.
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Two points:
- First, and slightly off topic, Canada may not be 'broken' but neither are we sharing, fully, in the US' generally improving socio-economic state ... and a lot of people, maybe almost 60%, blame Prime Minister Trudeau for that; but
- Second, and on topic, all the indicators seem to point to a possible, not certain, but very possible Harris victory.
