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Let them fail!

And, back on topic, see here, especially this from Harvey André: “tax cuts and infrastructure spending are the best tools to get the economy moving again. Bailouts to large industry players are less effective, although they are inevitable in this political climate … It is futile and horrendously expensive to try to stop the job losses that are certain to take place in a recession … However, it is possible to help with job creation, particularly among small enterprises that can respond quickly to tax cuts by expanding their businesses [and] their horizons are primarily domestic, so Canada gets the direct benefits of any new jobs … [but] there is tremendous - and irresistible - political pressure to try to help big companies with large numbers of employees, even though that action may not really be that productive."

 
E.R. Campbell said:
And, back on topic, see here, especially this from Harvey André: “tax cuts and infrastructure spending are the best tools to get the economy moving again. Bailouts to large industry players are less effective, although they are inevitable in this political climate … It is futile and horrendously expensive to try to stop the job losses that are certain to take place in a recession … However, it is possible to help with job creation, particularly among small enterprises that can respond quickly to tax cuts by expanding their businesses [and] their horizons are primarily domestic, so Canada gets the direct benefits of any new jobs … [but] there is tremendous - and irresistible - political pressure to try to help big companies with large numbers of employees, even though that action may not really be that productive." 

This works when new enterprises offer the right service/product - a) services/products needed on a practical basis, not those purchased as a status symbol or entertainment/recreation during times of excess disposable income, or b) product lines that are no longer cheap or possible to import and thus need to be produced locally.

There are other ways the government can help, but they are reluctant to do so:
Minimize non-Canadian purchases.
Minimize imports that compete with local brands.
Increase the price of our energy exports.
Enforce payment of taxes/fees by transnational/international corporations with a presence in the country.
Let our fishermen fish locally and inject gained capital into local economies, instead of international fishing vessels paying a fishing fee to the federal government.
(Of course, all of these have their own political and economic risks associated with them...)
 
Greymatters said:
... There are other ways the government can help, but they are reluctant to do so:

• Minimize non-Canadian purchases. X - that would involve trying and, inevitably failing, to force consumers to buy a higher priced, sometimes lower quality domestic product

• Minimize imports that compete with local brands. X - forbidden by the various free trade agreements we have signed

• Increase the price of our energy exports. ? – we can do that but, since oil in a fungible product, I cannot see how that would have any benefit at all, except, perhaps, to that part of the environmental movement that wants to close down Alberta

• Enforce payment of taxes/fees by transnational/international corporations with a presence in the country. X - forbidden by some free trade agreements (see Article 11 of NAFTA)

• Let our fishermen fish locally and inject gained capital into local economies, instead of international fishing vessels paying a fishing fee to the federal government. ? – but are not our local fish stock gone? Isn’t that why (highly) state subsidized foreign fleets are fishing outside our territorial waters?



 
A bailout could become expensive in more ways than one:

http://www.theconglomerate.org/2008/12/will-toyota-sue.html

Will Toyota Sue if Treasury Bails Out GM?
Posted by David Zaring

If the TARP is given to Detroit, as I think is plausibly permitted by the statute (though others disagree), there may well be litigation over it.  This is because, unlike those ad hoc section 13 bailouts by the Fed, the government’s implementation of the TARP is clearly reviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act. So there is a cause of action out there, and a presumption that the court will not shy away from review.

Who might sue? Creditors could, ranging from bondholders to vendors, as they would be made worse off if the US takes a preferred position in exchange for its equity, as the TARP appears to mandate, and as Treasury has done so far. That seems like pretty clear injury … but these creditors, who are many, multifarious, and may include some bloody minded lunch-truck operators with distribution deals or whatever (a subordinated bondholder would have a clearer claim of injury), will for the most part welcome government assistance to keep their debtors afloat to repay another day. Shareholders, even if diluted, would probably feel the same way.

What about competitors, though? Perhaps Honda would prefer not to compete against a combination of Ford and the American taxpayer? Competitors have generally been found to be injured when the government helps someone out by regulation, and, crucially, within the “zone of interests” covered by the statute – that’s ADSPO v. Camp, though the zone of interests test hardly repays logical contemplation. The general issue would be whether the competitors, though injured in fact, have “interests … so marginally related to or inconsistent with the purposes implicit in the statute that it cannot reasonably be assumed that Congress intended to permit the suit.” That’s Clarke v. SIA. (Here’s a good backgrounder.)

No one really knows what this means, but given case after case of standing found for competitors, including, most recently, the 5-4 NCUA v. First Nat’l Bank case (it’s the conservatives who tend to find standing in these cases, and the Court has gotten more conservative since NCUA), my preliminary view is that Honda or Toyota would meet this test. The strange thing about standing here is that, as a substantive matter, the foreign automakers would be arguing that the purpose and plain language of the TARP has nothing to do with bailing out the auto industry, and so therefore that Treasury illegally acted when it did so – in other words that, under the plain language of the statute, automakers and their interests are, in fact, “marginally related” at best to what Congress intended. But if the TARP can be used to bail out industry more generally (and auto makers in particular, either through their financing arm or whatever), the idea would be that any participant in an industry eligible for bailout funds would be within the zone of interests to dispute how those funds were distributed.

Strange. But standing law is always strange.

And anyway, Toyota might want the US to bail out GM.  But if it didn’t, why go to a kangaroo American court? When one can always go to the WTO.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
• Minimize non-Canadian purchases. X - that would involve trying and, inevitably failing, to force consumers to buy a higher priced, sometimes lower quality domestic product
• Minimize imports that compete with local brands. X - forbidden by the various free trade agreements we have signed
• Increase the price of our energy exports. ? – we can do that but, since oil in a fungible product, I cannot see how that would have any benefit at all, except, perhaps, to that part of the environmental movement that wants to close down Alberta
• Enforce payment of taxes/fees by transnational/international corporations with a presence in the country. X - forbidden by some free trade agreements (see Article 11 of NAFTA)
• Let our fishermen fish locally and inject gained capital into local economies, instead of international fishing vessels paying a fishing fee to the federal government. ? – but are not our local fish stock gone? Isn’t that why (highly) state subsidized foreign fleets are fishing outside our territorial waters?

Exactly my point - in order to do so you would be breaking some agreements and policies, or taking away consumer choices from the public.  Not easy decisions, but what's more important the economy or consumer choice?  At the moment the situation is not dire enough to require these measures, but reneging on a few international agreements would be a minor issue if things got really bad.

Reference your point on forbidden practices, this hasn't stopped other countries from doing the same thing, and encountering resistance or legal issues, but they still do it when they think they can get away with it.   

Reference energy, I wasn't thinking of oil but all the hydroelectric power that is sold by BC and Quebec...

Reference payment of taxes/fees, I don't mean implementing new fees/cost, which would be illegal, but rather the payment of fees already owed by companies already present.  Our regulatory structure allows for this, but we lack an adequately staffed and supported enforcement/prosecution unit.
 
What you're talking about - essentially protectionism - is exactly the sorts of policy moves that amplified the effects of the Great Depression - in the view of some scholars turning what would otherwise have been a mild recession in to a global disaster.  See, if we started being protections, we'd see reciprocation, and since our economy depends on exports the result of that could be absolutely devastating.  Take a look at the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and its implications during the 1930s.  As for increasing prices of energy exports, there's really no way to do that (except perhaps hydro we export, but that would still bring us afoul of NAFTA, which would not be good).

Consumer choice is ultimately what brings the market to sustainable equilibrium.  That's why I have a hard time with bailing out the Big Three - if no one is going to buy their products anyhow, at a sustainable, profitable price, then what could is shovelling tax dollars into them?  Obviously (and I live in the shadow of GM's Oshawa complex), the cataclysm of losing some half a million jobs could be very significant, but if the business can't succeed then it can't succeed, and we need to look at efforts to create new jobs for those folks - in growing industries.

Greymatters said:
Exactly my point - in order to do so you would be breaking some agreements and policies, or taking away consumer choices from the public.  Not easy decisions, but what's more important the economy or consumer choice?  At the moment the situation is not dire enough to require these measures, but reneging on a few international agreements would be a minor issue if things got really bad.

Reference your point on forbidden practices, this hasn't stopped other countries from doing the same thing, and encountering resistance or legal issues, but they still do it when they think they can get away with it.   

Reference energy, I wasn't thinking of oil but all the hydroelectric power that is sold by BC and Quebec...

Reference payment of taxes/fees, I don't mean implementing new fees/cost, which would be illegal, but rather the payment of fees already owed by companies already present.  Our regulatory structure allows for this, but we lack an adequately staffed and supported enforcement/prosecution unit.
 
Redeye said:
What you're talking about - essentially protectionism - is exactly the sorts of policy moves that amplified the effects of the Great Depression - in the view of some scholars turning what would otherwise have been a mild recession in to a global disaster.  See, if we started being protections, we'd see reciprocation, and since our economy depends on exports the result of that could be absolutely devastating.  Take a look at the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and its implications during the 1930s.  As for increasing prices of energy exports, there's really no way to do that (except perhaps hydro we export, but that would still bring us afoul of NAFTA, which would not be good).

Consumer choice is ultimately what brings the market to sustainable equilibrium.  That's why I have a hard time with bailing out the Big Three - if no one is going to buy their products anyhow, at a sustainable, profitable price, then what could is shovelling tax dollars into them?  Obviously (and I live in the shadow of GM's Oshawa complex), the cataclysm of losing some half a million jobs could be very significant, but if the business can't succeed then it can't succeed, and we need to look at efforts to create new jobs for those folks - in growing industries. 

Hmmm, it can be seen that way cant it?  Well, if all of these options fall under 'protectionism' and history has shown that this only worsens a recession, what other options are available?

 
Greymatters said:
... history has shown that this only worsens a recession, what other options are available?

From and earlier post of mine in another thread:

--------------------
Smith's “What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.” is good advice: work hard and work effectively and efficiently; keep your fiscal head above water; save for a rainy day (which, in Canada, may require some creative accounting given our laws and practices about public finance); deficits/debts need not be bad if they are managed well - consider your own mortgage, for example (I hope your mortgage is a good example of fiscal prudence); pay off your debts quickly; and so on.
-------------------- 

Add to that: trade freely, drop all tariffs on all products from all countries; learn to specialize so that you can produce (and invent as necessary) goods and services that the world wants at prices the world wants to pay; educate the country - all of it, well; make sure every sewer and water main and hydro line is in good repair - doing its job at the lowest possible life cycle cost; and so on.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
From and earlier post of mine in another thread:
Smith's “What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.” is good advice: work hard and work effectively and efficiently; keep your fiscal head above water; save for a rainy day (which, in Canada, may require some creative accounting given our laws and practices about public finance); deficits/debts need not be bad if they are managed well - consider your own mortgage, for example (I hope your mortgage is a good example of fiscal prudence); pay off your debts quickly; and so on.
-------------------- 
Add to that: trade freely, drop all tariffs on all products from all countries; learn to specialize so that you can produce (and invent as necessary) goods and services that the world wants at prices the world wants to pay; educate the country - all of it, well; make sure every sewer and water main and hydro line is in good repair - doing its job at the lowest possible life cycle cost; and so on. 

The first part my family already does, as do many others, but it is a fact that most Canadian families dont practice this well.  It is shocking how many families are deep in debt (just in credit cards, not including mortgages).  The average personal debt load per family is reported to be in excess of $10,000 (again, this does not include house mortgages). 

You make good additional points, but isnt this essentially just 'riding the rough spots' and letting the problem follow its natural course? 
 
Greymatters said:
The average personal debt load per family is reported to be in excess of $10,000 (again, this does not include house mortgages). 

This obviously means there are hordes of people with little to no debt, but conversely the are also scads that have massive debt.....and these last ones are the ones the recession is going to hurt the most...
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s National Post is news that I think is too little, too late:
--------------------
http://www.financialpost.com/news/story.html?id=1095212

White House grants US$17.4B in aid to automakers

Reuters

Published: Friday, December 19, 2008

U.S. president George Bush announced Friday that his administration will make up to US$17.4-billion in loans available to U.S. automakers using the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

Loans of US$17.4-billion will be given out, of which the last US$4-billion will be contingent on a second drawdown of the TARP.

"In the midst of a financial crisis and recession, allowing the U.S. auto sector to collapse is not a responsible course of action," President Bush said Friday morning. "If we were to allow the free market to take its course now, it would almost certainly lead to disorderly bankruptcy."

The automakers will be able to use the funds for three months, during which time they must develop plans that will demonstrate to the U.S. government how they can become viable. President Bush said Concessions will be expected from all involved, including management, unions, suppliers, and lenders.

--------------------

I doubt that Harper can resist providing $3.5± Billion (≈ 2:1 Canada:USA) relief just to keep the ruins of the Big Three in Canada.

I also doubt that Chrysler can survive – although the Jeep brand may – or that GM can be anything but part of, maybe, a big five, or modest 10 or small 20 North American auto makers.

But, it will pacify those who believe, without a shred of evidence, in bailouts and Santa Claus.

 
For some reason people equate Chapt 11 with liquidation and thats not the case. Alot of companies have gone the Chap 11 route back to profitability.The biggest problem that is beyond the control of the Big 3 is the credit crunch and before that high gas prices. They need to stay with the hot selling brands and dump those that people dont want. The Prtesident said people wont buy cars from bankrupt companies and to that I say people fly bankrupt airlines why not cars ?
 
"people wont buy cars from bankrupt companies and to that I say people fly bankrupt airlines why not cars ?"

In my opinion is the difference in scale in the investment:  An air ticket costs $300.  A car $30,000.  An air ticket is only at risk for a period of days or at most weeks.  A car, you expect support from the supplier for a period of years.

Right now I would have more confidence in buying a Toyota or Honda, that are reporting reduced profits, or even Ford, that has turned down assistance, than GM or Chrysler which are loudest in crying for assistance.

Having said that, I agree completely that Chapter 11, which is actually Bankruptcy Protection allowing a company to reorganize as if it had gone bankrupt without actually declaring bankruptcy, would be the way to go.  But one of the biggest contracts that would be affected would be the UAW/CAW contract - and that is where obstacle lies.
 
I hear all this hype about how Japanese autos are superior to North American autos. Well from experience and having paid the repair bills on my wife's 2004 Honda Odysee minivan, to replace the transmission at 126,000 Kms, Body control Module at 140,000 Kms, now there is a problem with the wiper motor. Japanese reliability, "Riiight"

We also own a 2002 Buick Rendezvous, we bought this SUV new, it has never been inside of a maintenace bay, other than to have routine maintenance done and it has over 200,000 Kms on it. It is by far a much more reliable vehicle than any Japanese car that I owned and it was built in Mexico of all places. The Mrs and I use it to travel because it ultra comfortable and its been down East, out West and to Florida twice without so much as a squeak among many, many trips to Detroit on weekend shopping trips. By everones standards this car should of been in the junkyard years ago or plagued with a multitude problems.

I also had a 2003 Honda Fit up till six months ago, sold it after the warranty ran out. This was suppose to be my get to work car. "Junk"! Leaky gas tank, Faulty main relay (park it in the cold overnight you had to heat the interior up just to start it), Heater blower only worked on one setting (low), Rear window defroster kept on blowing fuses (dealer never found the problem). And best of all, when it rained the windshield leaked on the drivers side, found out the hard way when I took it through a car wash and came out soaked. The only thing it had going for it was the fuel mileage, which I admit was rather impressive, when it worked properly.

Owned two Japanese cars, did the research before purchase on both and read the reviews which said both were above average for reliability, whomever wrote the reviews obviously never owned either one of these vehicles.

My next car will be another Buick, providing GM is still around, if not then a Ford.

This Japanese vs US auto issue is getting really old.
 
retiredgrunt45:

I drive a Ford.....for what that's worth. 

The issue with the Japanese is not the quality of their vehicles just now.....that's as may be.....the issue is that they aren't going broke while GM and Chrysler seem to be.
 
Well, Retiredgrunt45...My experience with the different nationalities of cars supports the hype.
Every american that anyone I know owns has problems or is just a POS, and every Japanese car is going just fine.  With the exception of a co-workers almost new Corolla.

My family used to have a Plymouth mini van (in the 90s), and every six months we had to replace the tranny...It was a very well documented issue with all those vans.  And guess what...for many years later, they were still using essentially the same tranny and all the same problems persisted.  Really good product improvement they have going.

I currently buy American motorcycles, and Japanese cars.  For trucks though the Americans are of course the benchmark.  Very good trucks.  And even with Trucks, the Americans are losing ground.

They are just continuing on with the downward spiral they started with their "Planned Obscelesence" in the 1970s.  They have no one to blame but themselves.
There is an interesting article on the American big 3s potential futures in the January 2009 issue of Car and Driver actually.

Even if one of  them totally fails...Good riddance in my opinion.  Looks like a very interesting 3 years coming up.
 
While I'd be all for removing all trade barriers in existence, I think we can all agree that just won't happen.  The primary purpose of a government is to protect the interests of it's citizens.  We take care of our own first (more or less anyways) before offering to help others.  So long as we all fall under regional banners, I do not expect that to change.

The closest thing you will ever find to a free market is Ebay.  NAFTA is a start, but doesn't even come close.  The rest of the world is just as regulated.
 
Public anger against the "Coalition of the Inept" derailed that project; maybe there can be an arousal of public anger against the politicians who are destroying $17 billion of the American taxpayer's wealth and @ $4 billion of Canadian taxpayer's wealth as well.

It also wouldn't hurt to let the "Big Three" know that you resent their stealing your wealth and will never buy a car from their companies again. (Calling a Big Three dealer and letting them know that the corporation's alienating you has also screwed them out of sales will do wonders)

Negative publicity: it works.
 
Well, Retiredgrunt45...My experience with the different nationalities of cars supports the hype.
Every American that anyone I know owns has problems or is just a POS, and every Japanese car is going just fine. With the exception of a coworkers almost new Corolla.

And and 19 just how much experience is that  ::). Please come back and talk to me when you know what your talking about. Autoshop doesn't count. What in the 90's you were, what 10-12 years old, the only thing your were driving was a bicycle.

The issue with the Japanese is not the quality of their vehicles just now.....that's as may be.....the issue is that they aren't going broke while GM and Chrysler seem to be.

The "reasons why" are a number of problems. 1st the type casting, that everything that comes out of Detroit must be garbage. 2ND is we allow these offshore companies to come over here and setup shop to build and sell their wares, but they in turn, turn around and forbid us from entering their market place. 3rd is we're fools, we allow this to happen then we wonder why our companies are going broke. Not very hard to understand. China has it right, they don't allow foreign companies in unless they've been invited in.

I admit the the big three were lagging in a few areas in the past, the biggest being the marketing of big gas guzzlers and lack of R&D into cleaner technology. The quality issue over the past decade has become less of a problem, because the big three and Japanese are essentially using the same parts suppliers for their north American plants, so if you say a US made car is junk, then a Japanese car that has been built in the US is also junk, because all the parts come from the same place. Again its all about Type casting and people following the hype.  

It also wouldn't hurt to let the "Big Three" know that you resent their stealing your wealth and will never buy a car from their companies again. (Calling a Big Three dealer and letting them know that the corporation's alienating you has also screwed them out of sales will do wonders)

Yep and I guess that's why the European union just wrote a cheque for tens of billions or Euros to prop up Renault, BMW, Mercedes, Opel, and Ford in Europe. I guess these companies are also stealing our money eh, God with you it never seems to end, everyone is stealing from you. Have you looked around lately and seen the financial mess the world is in, or are you sitting with your head in the sand and ass in the air. I thought Harper was bad. If your going to phone someone, make sure you phone the banks and let them know to that their also stealing our money and you won't be asking for a loan anytime soon, last time I checked they got, what "$850 Billion". Ya, that works... ::) Matter of fact call Gordon Brown, he could use some witless humour right about now, gee he's about to sell the Crown jewels to finance the UK. Arm Chair economists, never leave home without one.
 
retiredgrunt45 said:
The "reasons why" are a number of problems. 1st the type casting, that everything that comes out of Detroit must be garbage. 2ND is we allow these offshore companies to come over here and setup shop to build and sell their wares, but they in turn, turn around and forbid us from entering their market place. 3rd is we're fools, we allow this to happen then we wonder why our companies are going broke. Not very hard to understand. China has it right, they don't allow foreign companies in unless they've been invited in.

I admit the the big three were lagging in a few areas in the past, the biggest being the marketing of big gas guzzlers and lack of R&D into cleaner technology. The quality issue over the past decade has become less of a problem, because the big three and Japanese are essentially using the same parts suppliers for their north American plants, so if you say a US made car is junk, then a Japanese car that has been built in the US is also junk, because all the parts come from the same place. Again its all about Type casting and people following the hype.  

And yet with the money the Big 3 put into advertising they haven't been able to turn around this "myth"?  Maybe it's because the product doesn't really measure up in enough people's experience.

Somehow I don't think that trade barriers forcing North American to buy domestic cars is really a solution.  How, exactly, would that make the Big 3 create cleaner technologies or cost effective business models?

 
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