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Forces ‘Fudging‘ Reserve Numbers

Bill Smy

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Forces ‘fudging‘ reserve numbers
Size overestimated: Homeland security at risk, former watchdog says

Chris Wattie
National Post


Thursday, March 25, 2004
The Canadian Forces is overestimating the size and strength of its army reserves and dragging its feet on plans to boost the numbers of part-time soldiers, warns the former chairman of a Defence department review committee.

And that could have a potentially disastrous impact on the army‘s ability to respond to natural disasters or terrorist attacks, said John Fraser, the former Conservative Cabinet minister and head of the Minister‘s Monitoring Committee.

"You may get away with fudging numbers and flights of theoretical fancy about the revolution in military affairs when it‘s just weekly parades or weekend training," Mr. Fraser is to say in a speech today to a conference on defence. "But if something terrible happens here at home and we don‘t have the troops -- after pretending that we do -- then look out!"

An advance copy of his speech was obtained by the National Post.

Mr. Fraser‘s five-member independent committee, struck by former defence minister Art Eggleton in 1997, was to monitor the implementation of various programs within the Department of National Defence. In 2000, it focused on plans to revitalize the militia.

Under the Land Force Reserve Restructuring plan, the long-neglected army reserve was to be stabilized at 15,500 troops by early 2003, then increased to a total of 18,500 soldiers by 2006. The militia was also to be given a beefed-up role in "homeland defence," becoming the first military units to respond to terrorist attacks or natural disasters.

However Mr. Fraser said some senior department and military officials at National Defence Headquarters (NDHQ) have done everything possible to stall, divert or bypass the program.

"This has never been accepted by NDHQ," he says in his speech, to be delivered this morning to the Homeland Defence conference in Calgary. "Even with some new money, NDHQ resisted and only at the [Defence] Minister‘s insistence did they grudgingly fund the next two years [of the militia expansion]."

He says since the program‘s inception, some officials have been "finding every way to avoid facing a policy decision to have 18,500 [army reservists] by March 2006."

"The challenge is to achieve those numbers, not to find every excuse imaginable to avoid even admitting the objective or the date," Mr. Fraser says.

Canadian Forces officials said yesterday that as of March 1, there were 15,450 army reservists in 130 regiments across the country. In February, that figure was 14,200.

The military had no explanation for the one-month increase in reserve numbers, but Mr. Fraser suggests in his speech officials at National Defence Headquarters in Ottawa are playing games with those numbers.

He said defence bureaucrats insist on counting the hundreds of reserve soldiers serving full time with the regular army, including hundreds of reservists now deployed on missions to Bosnia and Afghanistan, toward the target of 18,500 troops in the army reserve.

Mr. Fraser also said that when pressed on reserve numbers, defence officials insist advances in military technology mean the military can do more with fewer soldiers, a notion he rejects.

"I suspect that homeland defence [against] asymmetric attack or natural disaster will require more, rather than less personnel."

Without sufficient numbers of troops available to call out in the event of a national emergency, Mr. Fraser says the army reserve‘s proposed role in homeland defence will be compromised.

"Homeland defence can include a number of activities for reserve army personnel. But surely one of the first requisites is the ability of units to immediately deploy significant numbers of soldiers," he says in his speech. "And this applies whether to emergency in an asymmetric [terrorist] attack or a fire, flood or earthquake.... You may have the comfortable notion that 18,500 are available but, in fact, it‘s much less than that."

Mr. Fraser says the reserves currently operate on the assumption they will have up to three months to prepare for missions either in Canada or in support of the regular army overseas, and must be reorganized to allow them to react more quickly, particularly to emergencies at home. "In a national domestic attack or natural disaster, no one is going to have the luxury of three months extra training."

Mr. Fraser says his committee was disbanded last November before it finished its work, at the behest of the same defence officials who are resisting the plan to revitalize the reserves.

"The need for monitoring is not over. We said so as a committee," he asserts. "There is a lot of work to do -- and those responsible for actually implementing ... reserve restructuring are dealing with a corporate centre that, faced with serious resource inadequacies, is not fully committed to [the plan‘s] objectives. From the beginning, they have resisted accepting it."

He says the rebuilding of the army reserves still faces obstacles in an overly centralized and time-consuming recruiting process and in the failure of the government to pass legislation protecting the jobs of reservists called up during national emergencies.
 
Not to mention that even if we did increase to the numbers listed, we don‘t have the equipment to outfit or support them. I don‘t even have enough radios to properly outfit a Company‘s worth of troops. I agree that the militray is making things look better than they really are.
 
Why don‘t NDHQ officials want to rebuild the militia?
 
It costs money they don‘t have Private.

Don‘t focus too much on the Uniforms at the top. Look to politicians and bureaucrats that can find billions more each year than they budgeted for everything else but you.

I once described our militia system to a Danish mate as Regiments, commanded as battalions, authorized as companies, parading platoons, trained as sections, employed as individuals. It doesn‘t seem to have changed much in 20 years.

Pray that the government sees the light or that there is a change in government.

Cheers, Kirkhill
 
It‘s not always a change in government. It‘s a change in bureaucracy and systems that is the immediate need.
 
Frankly, it‘s not the bureaucracy or the government. There are 134 Militia units in Canada whose Honourary Col and Lt Col (God Bless ‘em) really believe that their Regiment should be re-activated whole with their quaifs intact, even marching 110 or 140. The Reg Force (though not perfect) all march at 120 even if ‘light‘ (PPCLI Order in Council). We only have 9 Inf Bns now, I guess if we can ever recruit enough for 200 we‘ll be ‘history ready‘...
 
When I joined the CF in 1957, the general concensus was that the Reserves should be a mobiliazation base about 3 to 4 times the regular force.

Reserves 2000 recently pointed out that Reservists on Class B service on full-time duty already reach Levels of level 2 mobilization figures.

What this means, is if the Reservew are to mean a mobilization base, their numbers (army) should be around 100,000.

I marched into Niagara Camp with about 600 other soldiers of The Lincon and Welland Regiment. Assumong the Regiment took 60% to camp that year, the Regiment had a strenth of about 1,000. Today, it is lucky to muster 200.
 
Bill,

Of course, back then we had a Reg F of over 120,000, and never did anything (congo cyprus et al excepted of course). Lord knows that 4 CMBG never did anything (thank god for that). Now the Regs sruggle to muster 54-56000, and the operational tempo is unrelenting. The Lincs will in fact be doing well if there are 100 pers at "camp" this year. Bottom line is that the pie is only so big, and the appetitie for sending us in harm‘s way is voracious. Given those facts, do we need more Reserves, or more Regs?
 
Judging from Paul Martin and Steven Harper we are going to need both aren‘t we?

The national security policy seems to require a reg/res mix of home service Incident Response Units for Aid and Assistance to the Civil Power. Just like the Brits and the Aussies are doing and the the Americans are doing with the National Guard.

After that the type of foreign policy that seems to be making the rounds doesn‘t really require expeditionary forces, it requires overseas garrisons, much like 4CMBG. As we are being daily reminded nation building takes generations.

An in and out expeditionary force is probably the least cost item on the man-power agenda.
 
Fair points - but the single biggest limiter for planners right now is the fact that the pie is only $13B big. Given the not unreasonable assumption that the pie isn‘t about to grow, it really comes down to choices. If we make the Reserves bigger and more capable, the Regs must perforce become either smaller or less capable, or both.
 
Originally posted by G3 LFCA:
[qb] Bill,

..... Bottom line is that the pie is only so big, and the appetitie for sending us in harm‘s way is voracious. Given those facts, do we need more Reserves, or more Regs? [/qb]
Ottawa Kingpin (Stick pin???) says :p
National leadership has to decide what benefits there are for using their national assets. The puzzle is that the top doesn‘t the reserves as part of the big stick. If the regulars are so professional and well trained and ready to go - why does it take so long to get them going once they are told to go???
 
logau

I think you‘re pushing the envelope a bit there. :(

The reason the Regs are taking time to respond is that they are constantly being tasked in ad hoc groupings.

Once the government has made a decision to contribute a force overseas, NDHQ has to take a look around, find what bits are almost up to strength, cobble them together under a command structure, move regs from other units around to fill up critical vacancies and then cast around amongst the Reserves to see if they can find enough qualified troops that want to volunteer to fill in the blanks.

Then they would like to get them all together in one place, make sure that they have all the kit they need (or at least lots of gun-tape) and give a day and a half for training (2 days would be nice)

This is nothing to do with the professionalism of the Regs. It has everything to do with the Government of the day not deciding whether it wants crisis intervention forces or garrison forces, whether it wants to send combat teams, battle groups, brigade groups or divisions.

Once those decisions are made, based on financial and political factors, then Gen Hennault et al can start figuring out structure, location, numbers and capabilities.

Don‘t blame the General Staff. Blame the politicians.


G3 LFCA

You‘re dead right on dollars and decisions.

Cheers all ;)
 
More Regs , or Reserves? I would say both , but looking at the strength , of some reserve units ,I think we need MORE Reserves . I think the Reserves , are a good thing.
 
Originally posted by Kirkhill:
[QB] logau

I think you‘re pushing the envelope a bit there. :(

Ahhh.... I trail my coat and got a bite! :) :cool: Agree.

Neglect the Army and neglect the country. It happened in Britain after WW1 and it took three years to fix once they decided to get going - mind you Herr Hitler sort of got them thinking they should do something.

I don`t see anyone with the cojones saying or doing anything other than more of the same. And that leads us down the path here

www.donlowconcrete.com/FNPL

The strongest regiment in the Cdn Army right now is and will remain - the USAF. Until things change and the government stop leeching off our Allies and starts providing for the National Defence.
 
I will challenge the "goverment decreed ad hocery" thing. I was involved from the very beginning in the design of the force for ROTO 0 ATHENA, and I can tell you that all of the decisions of force structure were made by the commanders (and their staffs) that would actually deploy.

As to more reserves and more regs, which seems to be the dominant theme here, I reiterate - the pie is only so big.
 
Logau

Hope you were happy with the fish you landed.... :) :blotto: Cheers

G3

Sorry if I ruffled feathers and got it wrong. But from the outside looking in, and despite the obviously well done job in Afghanistan, it certainly looks as if the government pledges first then plans later.

Sorry again if I caused consternation. Not intentional.
 
Originally posted by Kirkhill:
[qb] Logau

Hope you were happy with the fish you landed.... :) :blotto: Cheers

G3

, it certainly looks as if the government pledges first then plans later.

. [/qb]
Well after 15 year in the Guard and 111 with the reserves, I am firmly of the opinion that they make promises without planning. Sometimes they really mean what they promise, but find out after they can‘t legally do it. Other times they say anything they can to win votes, or to get out of tight spots.
 
I understnad that the optics are bad, and it looks like the government (who I will remind you are, after all, our masters) spouts a number, and we toe the line. In thep[ast that has certainly been the case - but was not so for ATHENA. I better shut up now...
 
G3

One of the advantages of being an anonymous civilian perhaps....

Cheers
 
Originally posted by G3 LFCA:
[QB] I understnad that the optics are bad, and it looks like the government (who I will remind you are, after all, our masters) spouts a number, and we toe the line......

No point in towing the line here though - so lets all have some original thought

One item I would say is that we seem to be caught in a spiral - that is - do we really need to participate in every UN/Coalition deployment?
 
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