Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

[Edward Campbell]

My sense of things, a couple of years ago, was that the Hong Kong Police retained most of their pre-reunification character despite new leadership and loyalties.

I'm guessing that an reunified Taiwan might have a small, provincial security force for several years - only being slowly replace by the PLA.

Alternately, and perhaps a more likely choice, they might adopt the German model: fire all the 'old' East German (Taiwan) generals and colonels and, fairly quickly, meld 'old' East German (Taiwanese) units into the 'new,' unified German army (PLA).

 

[chanman]

An even more interesting question is what will happen to the ROC military/the Guo Min Jun/國民軍 if and when the ROC does reunify or at least become an autonomous province within one country two systems?

It will be very hard for the ROC military, which has mostly Western European traditions and some US influences, to be absorbed into the PLA(Jie Fang Jun) which many outsiders view as yet another former East Bloc-like military. Interestingly, 2 Russians did have a part in its creation when Chiang was still teaching and mobilizing his troops at Wei Fu/Whampoa Military Academy in the 1920s, before Chiang started relying on German Wehrmact advisors from the mid-30s onward and then US advisors like US Army General "Vinegar Joe" Stilwell and General Claire Chennault with the US entry into World War II.

Depends a lot on what the PLA looks like by the time they start talking about a unification process.  Isn't the PLA/PLAAF/PLAAN trying to move towards a professional, better equipped service?  The gulf between the two services might not be as far in 10, 20, 50 years

 

[CougarKing]

Depends a lot on what the PLA looks like by the time they start talking about a unification process.  Isn't the PLA/PLAAF/PLAAN trying to move towards a professional, better equipped service?  The gulf between the two services might not be as far in 10, 20, 50 years

Yes they are. We discussed that earlier in this long super duper thread, IIRC. ;D

 

[chanman]

Yes they are. We discussed that earlier in this long super duper thread, IIRC. ;D

In some places, things with this many posts turn into a sub-forum...  Still has a ways to go to catch up with the AFV identification thread though 

 

[tomahawk6]

The PLA were the first to enter Hong Kong and they will be the first into Taipei.
Will Taiwan give up their freedom to rejoin China ? Perhaps the people may decide that its worth losing personal freedom in exchange for rapproachment with China.

 

[CougarKing]

The PLA were the first to enter Hong Kong and they will be the first into Taipei. Will Taiwan give up their freedom to rejoin China ? Perhaps the people may decide that its worth losing personal freedom in exchange for rapproachment with China.

Not if the ROC military/the Guo Min Jun/國民軍 has anything to say about that. As I said earlier, the benshengren resentment, which reared its ugly head when those locals beat up that PRC official visiting Taiwan nearly 2 weeks ago- and which Mr. Campbell so easily dismisses as of no consequence- still cannot be ignored and they still constitute over 90% of the island's population. Even though the benshengren are Han as well like their waishengren cousins, many events unique to their history such as the infamous "2-28 massacre" of 1947 have alienated them from the other groups within China's sphere of influence which include both Han and other minorities or other "zu".

Furthermore, the Taiwanese/benshengren also speak their own language which is a dialect of the Hokien/Fujianese dialect spoken on the adjacent mainland province of Fujian just across the Taiwan Strait, although they are taught Mandarin in school and all official business is done in Mandarin. Also they should not be confused with the local non-Han tribes which are now just a small minority compared to the two Han groups on the island. My point is that from all that I stated above, the Taiwanese benshengren group have more of a case for self-determination, and one should not be surprised if the PRC's attempts to appeal to all overseas Chinese across the globe has less appeal among them. And yes, T6, they would be wary of giving up their freedoms to a mainland Chinese government the way it is right now. 

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail is a report on the talks between Taiwan’s president and China’s envoy:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081106.wtaiwan1106/BNStory/International/home

Taiwan's president meets Chinese envoy

RALPH JENNINGS
Reuters

November 6, 2008 at 3:08 AM EST

TAIPEI — Taiwan's president met briefly on Thursday with a Chinese official in one of the highest-level contacts between the two sides since the Chinese civil war, while thousands of protesters clashed with riot police outside.

President Ma Ying-jeou shook hands and exchanged gifts with China's top Taiwan affairs negotiator, Chen Yunlin, who has already signed agreements opening up trade and transport between the two sides that in past years have edged to the brink of war.

Outside the presidential office, at least 10,000 protesters wearing “Taiwan is my country” ribbons shouted abuse, telling Mr. Chen to leave and Mr. Ma to step down.

Some pushed down barricades and jousted with lines of police armed with riot gear, while others hurled plastic bottles. Several officers were hurt in the melee.

“What cannot be denied is that between the two sides some differences and challenges still exist, especially on the issues of Taiwan's security and international space,” Mr. Ma said at the five-minute meeting with the Chinese official.

According to security-conscious Taipei, China has more than 1,000 missiles aimed at the island just across the Taiwan Strait, one the world's most dangerous flashpoints.

Beijing, with about 170 diplomatic allies compared with Taiwan's 23, also bars the island from international organizations such as the United Nations, which requires statehood as a precondition for membership.

Communist China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has claimed sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan since 1949 and has vowed to bring the island of 23 million people under its rule, by force if necessary.

Mr. Ma's predecessor advocated formal independence from China, outraging Beijing and freezing high-level contacts.

Mr. Ma told Mr. Chen he wanted to see more high-level exchanges and said the two sides should not “mutually deny” each other's existence. Mr. Chen's reply to Mr. Ma was inaudible to the audience.

“The meeting is highly symbolic, mainly to show a parity between the two sides,” said Chao Chien-min, a political science professor at National Cheng Chi University in Taipei.

Mr. Ma is under pressure at home to be politically tough on China while improving the island's sagging economy by getting a piece of the other side's booming markets.

Negotiators from Taiwan and China signed a series of deals on Tuesday expanding daily direct flights and agreeing on new air routes, direct cargo shipments and direct postal services.

But protesters have been camping out in the streets since Mr. Chen arrived on Monday, accusing Mr. Ma of selling out.

“I'm here to resist China,” said Lin Ting-fung, a 52-year-old from Chungli city, just south of the capital. “I don't know how to express myself clearly, but I just don't feel comfortable when Chen Yunlin is here.”

Late on Wednesday, protesters mobbed a Taipei hotel where Mr. Chen had attended a banquet. Mr. Ma brought forward the time of his historic meeting with Mr. Chen on Thursday to avoid further trouble.

He defended the deals with China and condemned the overnight protests, which blocked Mr. Chen's exit from the hotel.

“You can't say that love for Taiwan will become the selling out of Taiwan,” he said.

Mr. Chen also attended a ceremony on Thursday to mark an upcoming exchange of two giant pandas, a gift symbolic of China, for an indigenous goat and deer from Taiwan.

He is set to watch Cape No. 7, a made-in-Taiwan blockbuster movie that has become a source of pride for the island and which is expected to be shown in China, the first Taiwan film to be allowed a screening in years.

Mr. Chen returns to China on Friday.

Clearly, as CougarDaddy has told us, many, many Taiwanese are not in favour of any ‘better’ relations with China.

On the other hand, I remind you of Churchill’s dictum that ”To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war.”

We, the American led West, don’t need another war in Asia.

 

[Kirkhill]

On the other hand, I remind you of Churchill’s dictum that ”To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war.”

We, the American led West, don’t need another war in Asia.

I agree with the notion that we don't need another war in Asis.

The danger associated with the 'jaw-jaw' strategy, in a world full of lawyers and propagandists, is that when it comes to "war-war" you may have already lost the diplomatic battle for being on the right side of history.  It doesn't help your cause if you repudiate treaties on the grounds that you were coerced, or that the previous adminstration didn't reflect the current will of the people.  All that matters is the signature on the document.  As an earlier "Empty Suit" - John Baliol aka Toom Tabard - found to his cost.

 

[tomahawk6]

Talking is an age old asian strategy to either stall or to acheive something that cannot be obtained by force. In this case by talking with the PRC you hopefully avoid the use of the military option by China.If Taiwan refuses to talk then they dont leave the PRC many choices but to either go away[unlikely] or prepare for several military options.By talking Taiwan hopes to string the Chinese along until some point in the future when the communist government has given way to democracy[a pipedream].

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from yesterday’s Daily Telegraph, is a report on another step on China’s road to secure broad, general recognition of its sovereignty over Tibet:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/tibet/3385803/UK-recognises-Chinas-direct-rule-over-Tibet.html

UK recognises China's direct rule over Tibet
The British Government has been accused of undermining the Dalai Lama in negotiations with China by recognising Beijing's direct rule over Tibet for the first time.

By Richard Spencer in Beijing

Last Updated: 8:27PM GMT 05 Nov 2008


A historic change of position to recognise Chinese sovereignty was announced in a little-noticed parliamentary statement by the Foreign Secretary David Miliband.
It will be regarded as a major triumph by Beijing, especially in the wake of worldwide condemnation of its suppression of anti-China protests and violence in Tibet this spring.

Critics are already asking what Beijing offered – or was asked for – in return.

Mr Miliband gave his strong backing to talks between the Chinese Communist Party and envoys of the Dalai Lama, the latest round of which has finished in Beijing.

He also backed the Dalai Lama's call for autonomy, rather than independence, for his homeland as a basis for agreement.

But in the last two paragraphs of his statement he referred to a historic agreement dating back almost a century which acknowledged Chinese interest in Tibet but asserted that Tibet had never been fully part of the country.

He described it as an "anachronism" and added: "Like every other EU member state, and the United States, we regard Tibet as part of the People's Republic of China."

The change in position is being attacked by a growing coalition of academics, Tibet support groups and the Tibet government-in-exile itself.

Thubten Samphel, the government-in-exile's spokesman, said it was "greatly disappointed". "For the British Government to change its position at this stage to us seems counter-productive," he said.
Britain's position derives from its colonial history – a reason why ministers and the Tibetan movement itself have rarely emphasised it.

The Simla accords of 1913 set the boundary between Tibet and British-ruled India.

They reflected the fact that Tibet had fallen within first the Mongolian and then the Chinese military orbit in previous centuries but had mostly governed itself. Britain was said to recognise Chinese "suzerainty" but not "sovereignty" over the region.

While the distinction might be obscure, it meant there was a basis in international law, backed by a permanent UN Security Council member, for Tibet to be recognised as distinct from other "provinces" of China.
Mr Miliband said this distinction, and the whole idea of "suzerainty" was outdated.

"Some have used this to cast doubt on the aims we are pursuing and to claim that we are denying Chinese sovereignty over a large part of its own territory," he said.

He was supported by Lord Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong. He told the Foreign Correspondents Club of China at the weekend that the position was a "quaint eccentricity".

But the Free Tibet Campaign and the International Campaign for Tibet fear the change has cut the ground from under the Dalai Lama's feet.

The ICT called the sudden change "baffling and unfortunate". The Free Tibet Campaign said the Government was "rewriting history".

The timing could not be more sensitive. Many of the issues being discussed between Beijing and the Dalai Lama's representatives, such as the boundaries of Tibet and the extent to which it is allowed to handle its own affairs, are exactly the same as those addressed by the Simla accords.

Most strikingly, Britain's position in the accords, repeated since, was that its recognition of Chinese "suzerainty" was dependent on China granting Tibet political autonomy.

Robbie Barnett, a British historian of Tibet at Columbia University in New York, said that Mr Miliband's statement stressed Britain's concern for human rights in Tibet but gave away the only leverage the outside world had to influence events there.

"This is more than a bargaining chip," he said. "This is the entire legal and political foundation for these talks."

The Foreign Office insists that there has been no change in policy, and that Mr Miliband was merely "clarifying" its current position.

A spokesman refused to be drawn on whether Britain had been offered or asked for anything in return for its concession to Beijing.

She confirmed that the Chinese were “glad” when informed by the British Ambassador to China, Sir William Ehrman, but added: “We did not give in to Chinese pressure. China was not pushing us on this.”

Stephanie Brigden, director of the Free Tibet Campaign, said Britain had given away a bargaining chip in return for absolutely nothing.

”It’s extraordinary that Britain has rewarded China in such a way in the very year that China has committed some of the worst human rights abuses in Tibet in decades, including torture and killings,” she said.

This is, clearly, an unpopular move but I think it is good, sound 21st century policy and I'm guessing that the rest of Europe will, quietly, follow suit lest the UK secure some trade advantage over the rest.

 

[CougarKing]

Talking is an age old asian strategy to either stall or to acheive something that cannot be obtained by force. In this case by talking with the PRC you hopefully avoid the use of the military option by China.If Taiwan refuses to talk then they dont leave the PRC many choices but to either go away[unlikely] or prepare for several military options.By talking Taiwan hopes to string the Chinese along until some point in the future when the communist government has given way to democracy[a pipedream].

Isn't another US concern that if the two ever reunify of what will happen if all that US military equipment currently in ROC use like those F16 fighters, and those Perry class frigates might fall into PLA hands?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Isn't another US concern that if the two ever reunify of what will happen if all that US military equipment currently in ROC use like those F16 fighters, and those Perry class frigates might fall into PLA hands?

I doubt that would ever be an issue.

Reunification will not come suddenly; there will be long, protracted negotiations and provisions will be made for the protection of US interests. Equipment, for example, will be returned to the US for re-use or destruction.

 

[CougarKing]

More of that local resentment that I mentioned earlier again manifests itself when Pres. Ma meets another high-ranking PRC envoy in Taipei.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2008/11/06/vo.taiwan.protests.ap?iref=24hours

The place of protest appears to be somewhere along Zhong Shan Bei Lu /逸仙北路 or Dr. Sun Yat Sen North Road, since I recognize the building behind the crowd as a hotel that I stayed at once- the Regent, IIRC.

 

[CougarKing]

A CNN report titled: "The China challenge for Obama"

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2008/11/06/vause.china.challenges.cnn?iref=24hours

 

[CougarKing]

Yet another sign that the center is weakening? BTW, the city of Shenzhen is not that far from Hong Kong, IIRC.

Thousands attack police in southern China: state media

AFP
Fri Nov 7, 4:37 pm ET


BEIJING (AFP) – Thousands of people attacked Chinese police in the southern city of Shenzhen from Friday afternoon to early Saturday morning, state media reported.

Xinhua news agency reported the unrest in an "urgent" report, quoting Shenzhen city's government saying a police car was burnt when thousands of people protested the death of a 31-year-old motorcyclist on Friday.

The report said the motorcyclist died after driving through a police checkpoint set up as part of a crackdown on illegal motor vehicles in the city's Bao'an district.

A police officer threw his "interphone" at the passing motorcyclist, the report said, "who reeled down to an electric pole, got injured, and died with futile rescue efforts."

A subsequent Xinhua report, quoting the city's police authority, said no police were at the checkpoint and it had been set up by a subdistrict office of Bao'an district.

However, a police patrol was nearby and relatives of the dead man attacked it, blaming the police, the later report said, as 400 people gathered while another 2,000 looked on.

The police car was burnt as the crowd became angry, while some of the onlookers threw stones, Xinhua said.

The later report made no mention of injuries and said the crowd had dispersed by 2:00 am Saturday (1800 GMT Friday).

An official with the subdistrict office had been detained by police, the report added.

Shenzhen is a booming coastal city just over the border from Hong Kong.

It has a population of about eight million people, according to its official website, which made no mention of the violence.

China sees thousands of such disturbances each year as marginalised segments of society rise up against what they see as the heavy-handed practices of local governments, police or powerful businesses.

In June, tens of thousands of people rioted in southwest Guizhou province over claims police had covered up an alleged rape and murder of a teenage girl.

The Hong Kong-based Information Centre for Human Rights and Democracy said that over 10,000 people took to the streets in that protest, with up to 150 people injured in clashes with police.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081107/wl_asia_afp/chinaunrestpolice_081107213742

 

[Edward Campbell]

Yet another sign that the center is weakening? BTW, the city of Shenzhen is not that far from Hong Kong, IIRC.

Shenzhen is right across the border from HK. It was the first 'special economic zone' that Deng established. It grew from a small fishing village - a few thousand - into a bustling city of millions, in 20 years.

 

[tomahawk6]

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=081107145825.op2k0ggd&show_article=1

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and a top UN official urged industrialised nations Friday to alter their lifestyles and not let the global financial crisis hamper climate change efforts.
Industrialised nations should also help developing countries respond to climate change, Wen said at the opening of a two-day international meeting on global warming in Beijing.

"The developed countries have a responsibility and an obligation to respond to global climate change by altering their unsustainable way of life," the state news agency Xinhua quoted him as saying.

"As the global financial crisis spreads and worsens, and the world economy slows down, the international community must not waver in its determination to tackle climate change."


The gathering in Beijing is focused on the development and transfer of technology that can help tackle climate change ahead of next month's talks on creating a new global treaty on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Representatives from 76 nations are attending.

China proposed last week that rich nations devote one percent of their economic output to helping poor countries fight global warming.

Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said Friday a lack of firm funding commitments could derail efforts to cut emissions in developing countries, especially during the financial crisis.

"The financial crisis is definitely going to affect international climate change policy," he said.

But "the financial crisis offers the world an opportunity to move away from toxic investments and make sustainable investments, for example into low emissions energy infrastructure," he said.

In the landmark Kyoto Protocol, rich nations agreed to targets for cutting greenhouse gases as well as helping to transfer clean technology to developing nations to help them reduce their emissions.

But much of the pledged transfers are not happening, said de Boer.

"Industrial countries must meet their technology transfer obligations," he told journalists.


"Given their historical responsibility for the problem, it is essential that industrialised countries take the lead in reducing emissions and that they show real leadership (in climate change negotiations)."

Formal negotiations on a new treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012 will begin in Poznan, Poland next month, with the UN hoping that a new agreement will be ready by the end of 2009, de Boer said.

"Governments have used 2008 to gather information and clarify their positions on a number of topics. At Poznan governments need to go into full negotiation mode and make concrete results," he said.

China has long resisted calls to join rich nations in setting targets for emissions cuts, saying its relatively low per capita emissions and recent emergence as a major source of greenhouse gases should exempt it from action.

Scientists said in September that China had leapfrogged the United States as the world's biggest producer of carbon dioxide (CO2), one of the principal gases that cause global warming.

 

[Edward Campbell]

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=081107145825.op2k0ggd&show_article=1

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and a top UN official urged industrialised nations Friday to alter their lifestyles and not let the global financial crisis hamper climate change efforts.
...
Scientists said in September that China had leapfrogged the United States as the world's biggest producer of carbon dioxide (CO2), one of the principal gases that cause global warming.

Now that's chutzpah!  :

 

[Kirkhill]

I wonder how many tonnes of CO2 this economic downturn has already prevented from adding to the insulation.

 

[CougarKing]

Shenzhen is right across the border from HK. It was the first 'special economic zone' that Deng established. It grew from a small fishing village - a few thousand - into a bustling city of millions, in 20 years.

Yes, Shenzhen benefitted as an SEZ partially because of its proximity to Hong Kong (pronounced Xiang Gang in Mandarin since I think the name Hong Kong is Cantonese) the same way that Zhuhai benefitted from nearly the same extent for its proximity to Macao (pronounced Ao Men in Mandarin).