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Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/3525052/China-slashes-interest-rates-as-panic-spreads.html

China slashes interest rates as panic spreads
The People's Bank of China cut interest rates by more than 1pc point as the economy crumbles and millions of jobs are predicted to go ahead of Christmas.

The move came just one day after the World Bank predicted that China would grow by 7.5pc next year. The level of growth may appear robust by Western standards, but it would represent the slowest economic expansion in China for the last two decades.

It is also perilously close to the 7pc minimum level of growth that Chinese economists believe is necessary in order to create enough jobs for the 6m university graduates who will enter the jobs market next year.

It is the fourth interest rate cut from the Chinese central bank in the last ten weeks as the government desperately battles an evident economic collapse. "China is out to save itself here," said Patrick Bennett, an analyst with Societe Generale in Hong Kong.

The PBOC reduced its main borrowing rate by 1.08pc points to 5.58pc, the biggest one-off cut since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997.

In recent weeks, a series of riots across central and southern China have flowered as disgruntled employees aired their grievances at the downturn.

Today, around 500 protesters rioted at the Kai Da toy factory in Dongguan in the Pearl River delta, flipping over a police car and trashing computers in a dispute over payoffs to 80 fired workers. Tens of thousands of factories across the region have already shut their gates.

Yin Weimin, China's Social Security minister, has revealed that employment is the Communist Party's number one concern in the downturn and said the "situation is critical". Unemployment is expected to rise from 4pc to 4.5pc by the end of the year and anecdotal reports have suggested that 3m people have already been fired in the industrial province of Zhejiang alone.

Two major provinces, Shandong and Hubei, have already responded by banning companies from firing staff without permission from the government.

The Chinese government has also announced a £373bn bailout to stimulate domestic growth by investing in infrastructure. However, only a fifth of the money is likely to come from central government coffers, with the rest coming from a mix of private enterprise and local government funds.

"We're seeing a government that steps in, that is trying to do everything it can to keep growth at a decent rate, and has the financial means and the administrative capacity to make that happen," said Louis Kuijs, the head of the World Bank's China economics analysis.

"All my colleagues were shocked by such a big easing. It signals the government may believe the economic situation is really serious for it to call for such a drastic move," said Liu Dongliang, a currency analyst at China Merchants Bank in Shenzhen.

The reserve requirements of Chinese banks were also cut by 1pc point, and 2pc points for smaller banks, freeing up around 360 billion rmb (£34bn) for lending.
 
2hxspaf.jpg

Factory workers overturn a police car during a protest outside Kaida toy factory in Dongguan, China. November 26 , 2008 (REUTERS)
 
This is not only a reminder of typical PRC justice, but also shows that the distrust between both sides of the Taiwan Strait remains in spite of the positive tone of the recent cross-strait talks.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27956301/

China executes researcher for spying
U.S. 'deeply disturbed,' says trial fell 'far short' of international standards

The Associated Press
updated 10:12 a.m. PT, Fri., Nov. 28, 2008
BEIJING - A Chinese medical researcher and businessman was executed Friday on charges of spying for Taiwan, his family said.

Ran Chen, who has Austrian citizenship, said her father's execution by gunshot was confirmed at 5 p.m. via the Austrian embassy in Beijing.

"Today, our beloved father, Wo Weihan, was executed," a statement from Chen and her sister Di Chen said. "His life was taken from him before he or our family could say its last goodbyes."


The family were hopeful he might be spared after they visited him at a Beijing court Thursday morning, their first meeting since he was detained almost four years ago, and were later told a second visit had been approved.

Neither the family nor Wo had received official notification about the execution, and so he did not leave any final words with them, the statement said. He had been surprised and happy to see them, it said.

The sisters had planned to submit the paperwork on Friday to visit Wo again, as one of them, Di Chen, was unable to make the first visit, but they received no response from the court.

"We were all misled, led to have false hope, denied the fundamental right to be informed, and forced to suffer," it said.

The U.S. State Department said it was "deeply disturbed" by news of Wo's execution and that his arrest and trial "fell far short of international standards for due process."

Wo was sentenced to death by the Beijing court in May 2007 and his final appeal was denied on Feb. 29. The sentence was automatically forwarded to the supreme court for approval.

Human rights groups and diplomats from the EU, Austria and the United States had appealed to China on Wo's behalf, contending that he did not receive a fair trial and was given an overly harsh sentence.

"We had hoped that the Supreme People's Court, in its review of the case, would recognize that such a severe punishment simply didn't fit the criminal allegations against Wo Weihan," John Kamm, executive director of the U.S.-based Dui Hua Foundation, said in a statement Friday.

Wo was accused of passing data on missile guidance systems and other sensitive information to a group linked to Taiwanese intelligence agencies. Taiwan and mainland China have been divided amid civil war since 1949.


Copyright 2008 The Associated Press.
 
In the end I simply find him to be vacuous (or in his own words a blank slate): a pretty boy willing to be a mouthpiece for whoever will get him the threads, the house and the limo.  And he doesn't car if it is ACORN, Daley, Soros or the Democrats that he is fronting.  He also doesn't seem to care if he upsets the people he leaves behind.

Thanks Kirkhill!  :rofl:

I liked the addition of Soros. Merchant of gloom and the king of the short sell.

I'm glad for this thread - adds some depth to the situation. If you add a dimension it isn't so murky.....

Interesting times........

These last few posts imply that western capitalism will triumph , by providence or accident.

Interesting times........
 
Oh oh......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/3546471/Chinese-economy-1930s-beggar-thy-neighbour-fears-as-China-devalues.html

1930s beggar-thy-neighbour fears as China devalues

China has begun to devalue the yuan for the first time in over a decade, raising fears that it will set off a 1930s-style race to the bottom and tip the global economy into an even deeper slump.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 10:39AM GMT 04 Dec 2008

The central bank has shifted the central peg of its dollar band twice this week in a calculated move that suggests Beijing aims to offset the precipitous slide in Chinese manufacturing by trying to gain further export share abroad.

The futures markets are pricing in a 6pc devaluation over the next year. "This is clearly a big shift in policy and we are now on alert," said Simon Derrick, currency chief at the Bank of New York Mellon.

The move follows a Politburo speech by President Hu Jintao warning that China is "losing competitive edge in the world market".

China has allowed a crawling 20pc revaluation over the past three years. Any reversal risks setting off conflict with the incoming team of President-Elect Barack Obama in Washington. Mr Obama called China a "currency manipulator" during the campaign, a term that carries penalties under US trade law.

Outgoing US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is viewed as a "friend of China". He called for a stronger yuan this week before embarking on a visit to Beijing, but the plea was couched in friendly terms. This soft-peddling may soon change.

Hans Redeker, currency head at BNP Paribas, said China's policy switch could set off a dangerous chain of events. "If they play this beggar-thy-neighbour game, it will cause a deflationary shock for the whole world," he said.

It makes sense for countries with current account deficits such as the UK, US or Turkey to let their currencies fall, but China has the world's biggest trade surplus.

Michael Pettis, a professor at Beijing University, said it was "very worrying" that a pro-devalulation bloc seemed to be gaining the upper hand in the Communist Party. "I really do believe that we are on the brink of a very ugly period for trade relations," he said.

China has relied on exports to North America and Europe as its growth engine, making it acutely vulnerable to the contraction in global demand. Mr Pettis said this recalls the role played by the US in the 1920s, a parallel fraught with danger. "In the 1930s the US foolishly tried to dump capacity abroad, but the furious reaction of trading partners caused the strategy to misfire. China already seems to be in the process of engineering its own Smoot-Hawley," he said, referring to the infamous US Tariff Act in 1930.

China showed restraint during the Asian crisis in 1998, holding the line against domino devaluations across the region. It may yet hold the line this time.

However, this crisis is more serious. The manufacturing sector has seen the steepest decline since the records began, with devastation sweeping the textile, furniture and toy sectors. Civil unrest has begun to rock the Guangdong and Longnan regions.

Beijing has slashed rates and unveiled a fiscal stimulus of 14pc of GDP, but most of the spending comes in the form of instructions to local governments to spend more – but without giving them the money. Does China really intend to step in to prop up global demand? The jury is out.
 
Bu hao yi si! (what a shame!)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28190703/

Taiwan ex-leader indicted for graft
Ex-president Chen denies bribery, money-laundering allegations
The Associated Press
updated 2:19 a.m. PT, Fri., Dec. 12, 2008
TAIPEI, Taiwan - Taiwanese prosecutors indicted former President Chen Shui-bian on graft charges Friday, a stunning blow for a man who rode to power 8 1/2 years ago on promises to reform the island's corrupt political culture.

Chen, 57, has been held in a suburban Taipei jail since Nov. 12 pending the results of an investigation into allegations he engaged in money laundering and other offenses during his recently concluded time in office.

Indicted together with Chen were his wife, Wu Shu-chen, his son and daughter-in-law, three of his former aides in the presidential office, and eight other associates and family members.

Prosecutorial spokesman Chen Yun-nan said the former president and his wife together embezzled 104 million New Taiwan dollars ($3.12 million) from a special presidential fund, and received bribes of $9 million in connection with a government land procurement deal.

He said Wu alone took another bribe of $2.73 million from a government construction project.

"Chen Shui-bian undermined justice again and again and showed no regret," Chen Yun-nan said. "We ask the judges to give him ... Wu, (son) Chen Chih-chung and Chen Chih-chung's wife, Huang Jui-ching ... the most severe sentence."

Chen could face up to 20 years in jail.

Chen has denied all charges, saying he is being persecuted by President Ma Ying-jeou's new government for the strong anti-China stance that marked the waning years of his presidency.

'Not true'
At a news conference convened shortly after the indictments were announced, Chen's lawyer echoed his client's claims of innocence.

"What prosecutors are charging President Chen and his wife with is not true," said Cheng Sheng-chu.

Ma's office said it would not comment on the indictments.

Chen, who ended a 50-year monopoly on power by Ma's Nationalist Party in 2000, was first elected on promises to end official corruption in Taiwan.

His desire to carve out an independent political and cultural identity for Taiwan's 23 million people became the hallmark of his administration, which ended due to term limits seven months ago.

The son of poor farmers from the southern part of the island, Chen first came to prominence in the early 1980s defending dissidents jailed under the Nationalists' martial law regime.

In 1985 Chen's wife was run down by a truck and paralyzed from the waist down at the conclusion of a failed election campaign in the southern county of Tainan. The Chen family charged that the Nationalists were responsible, but the Nationalists denied the accusation.

Hunger strike
Since Chen was jailed on Nov. 12, the corruption scandal has galvanized Taiwanese from all walks of life.

The former leader went on hunger strike the day of his incarceration but began eating again after 16 days, heeding pleas from his wife and family to preserve his strength.

Chen, a former maritime lawyer, is expected to mount a vigorous defense against the corruption charges.

He still retains a core of enthusiastic supporters, but many former political allies have turned their backs on him, regarding him as a liability to the pro-independence cause both he and they espouse.


Copyright 2008 The Associated Press.
 
And the dissent within the PRC grows.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28273651/

China's middle class vents anger
Actions have caught a government fearful of labor movements off guard

By Ariana Eunjung Cha
The Washington Post
updated 12:01 a.m. PT, Wed., Dec. 17, 2008
CHONGQING, China - When 9,000 of Shin Guoqing's fellow taxi drivers went on strike early last month, he felt he had to join them.

Soaring inflation had undermined what his $300-a-month income could buy for his family, and Shin said he was frustrated that the government had done nothing to help. "After running around the whole day, you have only a few renminbi for it," he said, referring to China's currency. "You don't feel good about your life."

For two days, the drivers held this Sichuan province metropolis of 31 million people under siege, blocking roads and smashing cars. The Communist Party quickly stopped the violence by promising to address the drivers' demands for easier access to fuel and better working conditions.

From the far western industrial county of Yongdeng to the southern resort city of Sanya and the commercial center of Guangzhou, members of China's upwardly mobile working class — taxi drivers, teachers, factory workers and even auxiliary police officers — have mounted protests since the Chongqing strike, refusing to work until their demands were met.

China's government has long feared the rise of labor movements, banning unauthorized unions and arresting those who speak out for workers' rights. The strikes, driven in part by China's economic downturn, have caught officials off guard.

Protests come to the cities
Rural protests, often led by impoverished farmers angry over land seizures that leave them unable to feed their families, have occurred sporadically over the past decade. But richer, more educated Chinese are behind the recent strikes, which have disrupted life in China's cities. The success achieved by the drivers in Chongqing has inspired work stoppages elsewhere.

Urban workers say they are worried about being unable to pay for their children's college education, missing payments on car loans, and not having enough money left each month to dine out with friends or go on vacation.

In the past 30 years of economic liberalization, younger Chinese have come to see these things not as a luxury of modern life but as a right.

In the central province of Hunan on Dec. 2, more than 100 auxiliary police officers seized control of a Communist Party office in Leiyang county and demanded that the government reinstate a bonus it had taken away after the Olympics. According to the Hong Kong-based Information Center for Human Rights and Democracy, the group smashed chairs and did not allow anyone to enter or leave the building for three hours. Tan Caiyu, a municipal official, said in an interview that the government is considering raising the auxiliary officers' salaries as a result.

That same week, more than 1,000 teachers in neighboring Longhui county went on strike over unpaid allowances. The teachers accused the local government of misappropriating 400 million yuan, or about $60 million, over the past 10 years.


In other places, such as the inland province of Shaanxi and in northeastern Liaoning province, teachers protested because they said they deserved to be paid as much as other government employees with the same experience.


Taxi drivers feel the pinch
In Gansu province's Yongdeng county, taxi drivers said their income had fallen because of the rising number of illegal taxis that the government had allowed to proliferate. Chen Yongshun, 44, who like many other taxi drivers across the country fell into his job when his state-owned factory closed, said that he has a child who will go to college next year and that he needs to make sure he will be able to afford the tuition.

"The government is for the people. If they can't do a good job, then they should be apologetic to ordinary citizens," said Chen, who participated in a Nov. 10 strike with about 160 others.

Huang Shuzhong, a driver in Sanya, said he and his colleagues had been upset for months because the taxi companies refused to lower their management fees despite falling demand for transportation.

Huang said that taxi drivers had brought their concerns to government officials and the companies several times earlier in the year but that nothing had come of it. Some of the braver taxi drivers began talking about a strike in the fall, but everyone had been afraid to act, he said. "After hearing about Chongqing, everything changed. We felt we could do it, too," Huang said.

In Chongqing, leaflets urging the taxi drivers to go on strike appeared overnight in the first two days of November at places where they congregate. They were taped on the walls at the place where they change the white fabric seat covers each night and scattered on the ground at gas stations.

"Rise up!" one leaflet urged. "Let us all unite and strike together!"

In concise and eloquent prose, it listed four complaints — it was difficult to get gasoline, the management fee they pay to taxi companies was too high, there were too many illegal "black" taxis taking away their work, and the meter was charging too little for waiting time. The leaflet also specified a date: Nov. 3.

Drivers shared plans for the strike by text message and word of mouth. Taxi driver Liu Mingsheng said the purpose of the strike "spoke to my heart."

"With my salary, I can have an ordinary life. I can buy books, toys and have medical treatment when I need it. But I can no longer have money to pay the bills and to go to dinner and drinks with friends," said Liu, 38, who used to work as a chauffeur for a state-owned company.

Drivers said the strike appeared highly organized — although none would admit to knowing who set it up. Blockades were erected at parking lots and places were taxis line up. The few drivers who dared to work that day were roughly pulled out of their cars, and their vehicles were damaged.

Chongqing's Communist Party secretary, Bo Xilai, China's former commerce minister, responded by convening a meeting to discuss terms for ending the strike. No leaders emerged to take credit for organizing the protest, so the taxi companies selected their own representatives.

The meeting was broadcast live by the local TV station and even the official state news agency's online portal, Xinhuanet.com.

Sitting next to Bo was Tang Zhirong, who represented female taxi drivers in the city. Tang, 38, who has a college degree in accounting, said she has no regrets about the strike because the outcome was so positive.

"Before, we really didn't have any way to make complaints, and without the strike the government wouldn't have given in," Tang said in an interview.

Crackdown
Even as government officials publicly praised the taxi drivers for their candor, they were hunting for organizers and trying to detect connections between Chongqing and other protests across the country.


Shin said that he had saved a copy of the leaflet in his car, without thinking about it, and that the police had found it. A few days after the strike, he said, officers brought him in for questioning and demanded he tell them who had written the leaflet.

Shin, 40, said he told them he had found the leaflet on the ground and had no idea who was behind it.

Shin's story is typical. He worked at a state-owned heating company until it shut down 17 years ago and has been a taxi driver since. He says that he and his wife, who works at a gas station, make "enough, just enough," but that these days, they are working more hours — often more than 10 each day — for the same pay they got for working eight hours in the past.

Drivers in Chongqing said they were discussing a possible second strike — although no new leaflets have appeared. One of the things that the Communist Party promised after the protest was to work with the taxi companies to set up a pension and health-insurance system. The details, however, are still pending and some drivers are worried that it won't happen.

These days, said Shin, who was impressed by Bo's leadership in ending the strike, "I trust the government . . . but I don't yet trust the taxi companies."

Researchers Crissie Ding and Wu Meng in Shanghai contributed to this report.


© 2008 The Washington Post Company
 
Anyone who didn't think this would happen after the Olympic Games was not paying attention. Weather it works or not is a different story:

http://www.technologyreview.com/wire/21911/?nlid=1595&a=f

China defends right to censor Web sites
By Associated Press

BEIJING (AP) -- With the glare of the Olympic spotlight gone, China has resumed blocking access to the Internet sites of some foreign media, reversing itself on earlier promises to expand press freedom as part of its bid to win the games, human rights groups and press advocates said Wednesday.

The Chinese-language Web sites of the British Broadcasting Corp. and Voice of America, along with the Hong Kong-based media Ming Pao and Asiaweek, are among the sites that have been inaccessible since early December, said the press rights group Reporters Without Borders.

"Right now, the authorities are gradually rolling back all the progress made in the run-up to this summer's Olympic games, when even foreign Web sites in Mandarin were made accessible. The pretense of liberalization is now over," the group said in a statement, as it urged China to unblock the sites.

Earlier this week, Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao had defended China's right to censor Web sites that have material deemed illegal by the government, saying that other countries regulate their Internet usage too.

He said that some Web sites -- which he did not identify by name -- breached Chinese laws by recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation. China maintains that the self-ruled Taiwan is a part of China, and has even threatened to use force if Taiwan moves to make a permanent split.

"I hope that these Web sites exercise self-discipline and abide by the Chinese laws, in order to pave the way for better Internet cooperation," Liu said.

During the Summer Games held in August, China allowed access to long-barred Web sites such as the BBC site and Human Rights Watch after an outcry from foreign reporters who complained that Beijing was failing to live up to its pledges of greater media freedom.

The fact that China has now chosen to re-block those sites is not so surprising, said Rebecca MacKinnon, a journalism professor who teaches about media and the Internet at the University of Hong Kong.

"I don't think very many people expected to see the Olympics herald a whole new era in China, at least not as far as politics and media," she said.

MacKinnon noted that the policing of the Internet in China, which has the most online users in the world with more than 250 million, swings between phases of looser monitoring and then tighter regulation.

"There were a lot of foreigners running around covering the Olympics. It made sense to unblock at that time," she said. "But things always go in phases. And during politically sensitive times, you always get a tightening."

Nicholas Bequelin, Asia researcher for Human Rights Watch, said Beijing is also taking advantage of the fact that the world's attention has shifted away from China after the Olympics.

"The spotlight has moved out of China, so it's easier to suppress dissent when you don't have 10,000 journalists in town," he said.

Bequelin said he believes that the Internet restrictions are part of a larger attempt at political control during a period of uncertainty and potential instability for the government. China is facing a serious economic downturn this year, and social unrest has increased.

"I think we're heading toward a sensitive period for the leadership. This is a time of many anniversaries" such as the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, the Tibetan uprising and 30 years of economic reform, he said. "Information control is the basic tool of political control in China."

The Web site censorship also comes as the government continues a clampdown against more than 300 writers, academics and critics who signed a recent bold appeal circulating on the Internet calling for greater freedoms and an end to China's one-party rule.

The manifesto, dubbed "Charter 08," is one of the broadest calls for multiparty democracy in recent years. One of its signers, Liu Xiaobo, a writer and former professor, remains in police custody more than a week after being detained. Dozens of other signers have reported being summoned and harassed by police.

Bequelin said it is unclear whether the Internet restrictions are related to the crackdown, but that Beijing's attempts to stifle the Internet and control public information are ultimately futile.

"The free flow of information in China now is huge. Jailing journalists, closing down Web sites and blocking foreign Web sites, even arresting people like (dissident writer) Hu Jia and Liu Xiaobo, it's illusory to think that's going to stop Chinese society from demanding more accountability, rights and more transparency," he said.

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press.

Copyright Technology Review 2008.
 
A closer look at a Type 730 CIWS mounted on one of the destroyers headed for Somalia shows something that looks awfully like a Goalkeeper CIWS. :o

plan_ciws.jpg

 
Thucydides said:
Anyone who didn't think this would happen after the Olympic Games was not paying attention. Weather it works or not is a different story:

http://www.technologyreview.com/wire/21911/?nlid=1595&a=f

- Rank amateurs.  Better to provide the illusion of a free society and form human rights tribunals to stifle free thought.  A much more nuanced approach.
 
China to start construction of 1st aircraft carriers next year
BY KENJI MINEMURA, THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200812310046.html

BEIJING--China will begin construction of the country's first domestically produced aircraft carriers in Shanghai next year, with an eye to completing two mid-sized carriers by 2015, military and shipbuilding sources said.

Beijing is also expected to complete work on a never-finished former Soviet aircraft carrier moored in the northeastern port of Dalian, to provide training for carrier-based pilots and crew.

The two 50,000- to 60,000-ton carriers will rely on conventional propulsion systems, not nuclear power. They will be assigned to the People's Liberation Army Navy south sea fleet, tasked with patrolling the South China Sea, sources said.

China's carrier ambitions and the build-up of its blue-water fleet have long been of interest to Pacific nations.

National defense ministry spokesman Huang Xueping recently commented that China might build its own aircraft carriers.

However, this is the first time the goals of Chinese naval planners have been clarified in such detail.

If China does bolster its naval combat capabilities by deploying aircraft carriers, it could significantly impact the delicate military balance in East Asia.

According to sources close to Shanghai municipal authorities, one of the world's largest shipbuilding facilities was completed this fall on Changxingdao island at the mouth of the Changjiang river near Shanghai.

One of the four docks there is for construction of the aircraft carriers, they said.

Shipbuilding sources said there are plans to import electrical control parts from Russia and that orders have already been placed with domestic military suppliers.

If procurement goes as planned, the carriers could be completed about two years earlier than planned.

Meanwhile, shipbuilders in Dalian are nearing completion of the 60,000-ton former Soviet Kuznetsov-class carrier Varyag, as a training ship for carrier-borne aircraft pilots and crew. The ship, which was about 70 percent complete at the time of its purchase, was first acquired by a Macao tourism firm in 1998. Since 2002, it has been under construction by a Dalian-based shipbuilder with ties to the navy.

A ranking Chinese navy officer told The Asahi Shimbun that as China increasingly relies on Mideast oil, the aircraft carriers would likely see duty guarding sea lanes in the Malacca Strait and in the Indian Ocean. The officer contended that because the ships will be smaller than U.S. carriers they will not pose a threat.

Ikuo Kayahara, a professor of security studies at Takushoku University and a former research department director at the National Institute for Defense Studies, said China's plan to build aircraft carriers is a "key pillar to enhancing its naval capabilities."

"China hopes to broaden its buffer zone to protect its coasts from a perceived threat from the United States," Kayahara said.(IHT/Asahi: December 31,2008)
 
old medic said:
China to start construction of 1st aircraft carriers next year
BY KENJI MINEMURA, THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200812310046.html
:o

This makes me wonder what they will name these carriers after. The sub classes after named after imperial dynasties and the destroyers  and frigates are named after towns and cities, IIRC. Maybe they will name these ships after CCP leaders, in the same fashion after US CVNs nowadays are named after presidents and statesmen or even prominent military leaders like Admiral Nimitz.

Trivia aside, would it be safe to assume that the Russians may be the first to leap at the opportunity of reaming and refurbishing the VARYAG, since it was mentioned in the article that she will be completed by the Chinese as a training carrier? In the same way the Russians are refitting the GORSHKOV for Indian use?
 
More potential trade troubles:

http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/node/15027

The known unknowns of the economic crisis
Fri, 01/09/2009 - 11:03am

I was less impressed than Steve Walt with Roger Altman's Foreign Affairs essay on the geopolitics of the financial crisis.

Altman's tick-tock on the whys of the crisis is fine.  Saying that China will benefit and the free market model is in peril is, as Walt points out, "obvious."  It's the non-obvious stuff that we need to puzzle out.

To be fair to Altman, I suspect that he handed in his essay in early November; the extent to which the crisis would affect the BRIC economies was still to be determined.  Still, this paragraph seems way off:

  Beijing will be in a position to assist other nations financially and make key investments in, for example, natural resources at a time when the West cannot. At the same time, this crisis may lead to a closer relationship between the United States and China. Trade-related flashpoints are diminishing, which may soften protectionist stances in the U.S. Congress. And it is likely that, with Washington less distracted by the war in Iraq, the new administration of President Obama will see more clearly than its predecessor that the U.S.-Chinese relationship is becoming the United States' most important bilateral relationship. The Obama administration could lead efforts to bring China into the G-8 (the group of highly industrialized states) and expand China's shareholding position in the International Monetary Fund. China, in turn, could lead an effort to enlarge the capital base of the IMF.

Where to begin.  First, China has taken a pass on bailing out key allies.

Second, trade-related flashpoints are not diminishing.  The crisis has prompted China increase its export tax rebates and let the yuan fall against the dollar.  This will increase rather than decrease bilateral trade tensions.  On the U.S. side, there are many reasons to be pessimistic of the trade-friendliness of the Obama administration.  And none of this mentions the toxic combination of fiscal stimuli and protectionism.

Third, the problem for the past few years has not been getting the U.S. on board with bringing China into the G-8 -- it's been China's reluctance to join.

So, what are the non-obvious geopolitical implications of the global financial crisis?  I suspect the biggest one will be that the "decoupling" of the global economy will begin in earnest. 

The tight coupling of the global economy caused export-dependent economies to face significant downturns because of the collapse in demand from the OECD nations.  These governments will respond to the current crisis by creating the trade equivalent of currency reserves - that is to say, creating a protected space of demand for national champions.  The most direct way to do this will be to boost domestic demand while restricting competition from foreign producers.  As states plan to expand their fiscal policy, it should be relatively easy - via procurement rules and concentrating expenditures on non-tradable goods - to target new government spending towards domestic firms.

This kind of decoupling would contribute to the unwinding of the macroeconomic imbalances caused by the Bretton Woods II arrangements.  It would also, however, be sure to reduce overall economic growth even further.  It would also reduce whatever constraints economic interdependence has placed on aggressive action in world politics.

Beyond that, perhaps the best way to think about this is to consider the "known unknowns" of the current situation:

    *      Which great power will recover more quickly?  Altman thinks it's China, and he may well be correct.  Still, in the past, the United States has rebounded more quickly than other countries in response to marco shocks like this one.  On the other hand, today's employment report makes it clear that the U.S. is still on the downward slope.
   
    *      Which weak state will implode?  Consider the past month or two.  Pakistan looks like it will crack up (of course, this isn't anything new for Pakistan).  There are riots in Greece, and cholera in Zimbabwe.  Which government will collapse -- and who will be expected to intervene?
   
    *      Which petrostate will get desperate?  As I wrote in November, a sharp fall in oil prices will have dramatic effects on Iran, Russia and Venezuela.  How will they respond?  Will they try to engage in diversionary conflicts to deflect domestic discontent? 

This just scratches the surface.  Readers are warmly encouraged to submit other possible "known unknowns" in the comments.
Daniel W. Drezner
 
In spite of ROC Pres. Ma's recent cross-strait initiatives, I am not as optimistic as Xinhua is assuming that just one Taiwanese ship escorted by the PLAN means a greater thaw in Sino-Taiwanese relations.

Chinese mainland naval fleet escorts Taiwan merchant ship off Somalia
www.chinaview.cn 2009-01-13 00:45:09

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/13/content_10647707.htm

ABOARD DESTROYER WUHAN, Jan. 12 (Xinhua) -- A Chinese mainland navel fleet on Monday began to carry out an escort mission for four merchant ships including one from Taiwan in the Gulf of Aden off Somalia.

The mission is also escorting two other ships from Shanghai and one from the Philippines to protect them against pirate attacks.

At 6:00 a.m. (0300 GMT), the four ships set out in a line for a voyage of 553 sea miles (1019 km), accompanied by the destroyer Wuhan. Two groups of naval special forces were aboard the first and the last ships.

Another Chinese destroyer Haikou will join the mission later in waters, where the pirates are more likely to appear.

Rear-Admiral Du Jingchen, commander of the naval fleet, said safeguarding transport in the Gulf of Aden and maintaining security of ships was the common wish of all pacifists including compatriots across the Taiwan Straits.

The Gulf of Aden is a key trade route linking the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.

Chinese missile destroyer Wuhan (R) escorts a cargo ship in the waters of the Gulf of Aden on Jan. 12, 2009. The Chinese fleet started to carry out the second escort mission against pirates in the Gulf of Aden on Monday.

The fleet, including the two destroyers and one supply ship, conducted its first escort mission from Jan. 6 to 8.

The fleet has about 800 crew members, including 70 soldiers from the Navy's special force, and is equipped with missiles, cannons and light weapons.

The London-based International Maritime Bureau said more than 100 vessels had been attacked in the Gulf in 2008 and more than 10ships are still being held for ransom.
Editor: Mu Xuequan

=== ~~~ ===

xin_5020106122154156291787.jpg


A Chinese navy helicopter keeps alert over a cargo ship in the waters of the Gulf of Aden on Jan. 12, 2009. (Xinhua Photo)

xin_4920106122154890157385.jpg


Chinese missile destroyer Wuhan (R) escorts a cargo ship in the waters of the Gulf of Aden on Jan. 12, 2009. The Chinese fleet started to carry out the second escort mission against pirates in the Gulf of Aden on Monday. (Xinhua/Zhu Hongliang)
 
It was only a matter of time.

China passes Germany in economic rankings

BEIJING, China (CNN) -- China has become the world's third-largest economy, surpassing Germany and closing rapidly on Japan, according to government and World Bank figures.

The Chinese government revised its growth figures for 2007 from 11.9 percent to 13 percent this week, bringing its estimated gross domestic product to $3.4 trillion -- about 3 percent larger than Germany's $3.3 trillion for the same year, based on World Bank estimates. Beijing is expected to release its 2008 GDP figures next week.

Although the world's top economies, the United States and Japan, are in recession, the most pessimistic estimates for China's growth in upcoming years runs about 5 percent. That could allow China's GDP to overtake Japan's, currently $4.3 trillion, within a few years.

The U.S. economy, the world's largest, was about $13.8 trillion in 2007.

The World Bank's estimate of China's economic growth is about 7.5 percent. But China has seen a sharp decline in exports in November and December as other major economies struggle, and the bank's analysts say rates below 6 percent could worsen the rest of the world's slump

And Michael Santoro, author of the 2008 book "China 2020," said China will have other problems to overcome if it is to maintain its rapid expansion.

"It's no longer sufficient for China to become a manufacturer of sneakers or toys and the like," Santoro said. "Now they're looking to become players in the area of pharmaceuticals and foods and other high value-added products, where safety and quality are important characteristics for improving in the global economy."

China recently announced a $600 billion economic stimulus package, and its State Council on Wednesday laid out a new plan to boost its steel and auto industries -- including about $1.5 billion to develop alternative-fuel vehicles.
 
As usual, Beijing tries to speed up the reunification process.

Defense News

01/12/09

China Suggests Mil-to-Mil With Taiwan

TAIPEI — In what many consider a sea change in cross-Strait relations, both China and Taiwan are openly discussing military relations, a move that could end future U.S. arms sales to Taiwan but also resolve 60 years of tension between Taipei and Beijing.
In an unprecedented act, Chinese President Hu Jintao called for military exchanges and a peace accord with Taiwan during a speech on Dec. 31. Hu said that at the proper time, military contacts and confidence-building measures would stabilize the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
“People on both sides of the Strait share the responsibility of ending the history of confrontation,” Hu said. “Under the common understanding of one China, the two sides can talk about anything. We will promote anything that is conducive to peaceful development across the Strait, and we will firmly oppose anything that harms it.”
After a nine-year suspension, Taiwan and China resumed cross-Strait talks in June. Progress came quickly with weekend charter flights across the strait in July, a visit by a Chinese government delegation in November, and the launching of direct shipping, air transport and postal services in December.
The legislative and presidential election victories in early 2008 by the Beijing-friendly Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) spurred the change. Taiwan’s new president, Ma Ying-jeou, promised closer relations with China and was the first to suggest confidence-building measures and a possible peace accord with China.
“It does seem that there is an ongoing thaw across the Taiwan Strait, not only politically, but also militarily,” said Wu Yu-Shan, a political specialist at Academia Sinica, here.
“Goodwill gestures are taken in a reciprocal manner. How far this will go remains to be seen.” After Hu’s speech, the Hong Kong-based Yazhou Zhoukan magazine printed an uncon­firmed report that China was considering reducing the number of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), now numbering about 1,300, aimed at Taiwan.
Though the report came from a Chinese-language media source, the news was taken seriously inside Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND).
“The ministry welcomes the idea of China withdrawing missiles and believes it would be a positive development between the militaries of both sides,” an MND spokesman said.
However, China’s Dong Feng 11/15 SRBMs are mobile and can easily be redeployed.
“If China drastically reduces its military buildup opposite Taiwan, which is unlikely, that would be welcome,” said Bonnie Glaser of the China Studies Center, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington.
“It would then be up to Taiwan to decide how much it would continue to spend on defense and what weapons it would continue to need to provide for its security. This scenario is not likely to take place in the next few years, if at all.” 
Will Taiwan Need U.S. Arms? 
Closer relations could influence U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
In October, the United States released a $6.4 billion arms package that included AH-64D Apache attack helicopters, Patriot PAC-3 air defense systems, Javelin anti-tank missile systems, sub-launched Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and F-16 fighter and E-2 Hawkeye parts.
Taiwan is still pushing the United States to release F-16 fighters to replace aging F-5s, and has plans to ask Washington for M1 Abrams tanks, Aegis-equipped destroyers and UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters.
Now the question is, will Taiwan need any more U.S. arms as relations with China become cozier?
“They [China] do not need a military to take Taiwan. They can use economic, political and cultural links to absorb Taiwan,” said Lin Chong-Pin, former Taiwan deputy minister of defense.
Lin said China’s intelligence services will get more access to Taiwan’s military as relations improve.
Taiwan has long been happy hunting grounds for China’s espionage efforts, and there are fears in Washington that advanced U.S. arms technology could end up in Beijing’s hands.
In 2002, a Taiwan military officer was accused of selling operational manuals for the Patriot PAC-2 Plus air defense system to China. A Taiwan arms broker, Bill Moo, was convicted in the United States in 2006 for attempting to ship an F­16 fighter jet engine to China. In 2008, a Taiwan arms broker was arrested in the United States, along with a Pentagon official, for selling secrets to China.
After Hu’s speech, Ma acknowledged the need for peace talks with China, but also emphasized Taiwan’s need for a strong defense. However, Taiwan’s minister of national defense, Chen Chao-min, has cut the annual Han Kuang military exercises to every two years. The official explanation was to improve the defense ministry’s ability to absorb lessons from the exercise, but others wondered whether the Ma administration was seeking to further placate China.
During the first week of January, a Chinese academic delegation visited Taiwan and met with senior military officials to discuss closer relations. The delegation was headed by officials from the Institute of International Studies, Center for U.S.-China Relations, based at Beijing’s Tsinghua University. Sources said this effort would be followed by official military delegations.
One issue being discussed is confidence-building measures, although these appear unlikely in the near future. CBMs will reduce tensions but not resolve differences, Glaser said.
“They will, however, end the 60­year estrangement between the two militaries, and may reduce the chances of miscalculation, enhance understanding and trust, and build habits of cooperation,” she said.
Better relations across the strait will no doubt be welcomed in Washington, which has been in the awkward position of providing for Taiwan’s defense while maintaining good relations with China.
“Easing of cross-Strait tensions brings many benefits to the U.S. It reduces the danger of war that would likely involve the U.S.; it may help the Taiwan economy, and the U.S. has a strong interest in a pros­perous Taiwan; it reinforces the view in China that Beijing should rely on peaceful means of seeking reunification and eschew use of force; and it reduces tensions in U.S.-China relations,” Glaser said.
The real question is whether Ma can balance good relations with both China and the United States.
“Whether he is able to do so, improving ties with both Beijing and Washington simultaneously, remains to be seen,” Wu said. “That would be his major challenge.”
If Taiwan falls into China’s political and military orbit, it would redefine the U.S. role in Asia.
 
Using ballistic missiles -without their nuclear warheads- as SSMs against USN carriers?

  By MICHAEL RICHARDSON
Special to The Japan Times

SINGAPORE — U.S. President George W. Bush commissioned America's newest aircraft carrier Jan. 10 at the Norfolk naval base in Virginia. Named after his father, former President George H.W. Bush, the giant ship, which carries 85 planes and nearly 6,000 crew, is a potent symbol of America's global power and presence, despite recent U.S. economic and foreign policy failures.

It is also the last of 10 nuclear-powered Nimitz-class carriers to enter service with the U.S. Navy. They are the largest warships in the world. However, by 2015 the first of an even bigger and more advanced class of carrier, also nuclear-powered, is scheduled to start replacing the Nimitz vessels. Two years ago, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said that the successor ships "will help ensure the sea power of the United States for the next half century.�

To defend its interests in Asia, the U.S. has been steadily transferring more aircraft carriers and other warships from its Atlantic fleet to the Pacific. As a result, the Pacific fleet's share of the 280 ships in the Navy has risen from 45 percent in earlier years to around 54 percent and continues to increase. The U.S. Pacific fleet now includes six of the Navy's 11 aircraft carriers, almost all of the 18 Aegis cruisers and destroyers that have been modified for ballistic missile defense operations, and 26 of the 57 attack submarines.

To counter the Asia-Pacific focus of the U.S. Navy, China is reportedly planning to deploy ballistic missiles with nonnuclear warheads and special guidance systems to hit moving surface ships at sea in the Western Pacific before they can get within range of Chinese targets.

If China fielded such a weapon, one that could reliably sink or cause heavy damage to aircraft carriers and other major warships far from its shores, it would make a potential adversary think long and hard before sending naval forces to intervene in a crisis over Taiwan or any other regional conflict in which China was involved.

This would reduce the value and deterrent effect of U.S. alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, including its mutual defense pacts with Japan, the Philippines and South Korea. Fortunately, Beijing and Taipei have greatly improved their relations in recent months and an armed confrontation between them that could bring the U.S. into the fighting on the side of Taiwan seems less likely to happen.


Still, Ronald O'Rourke, a specialist in naval affairs for the Congressional Research Service, told U.S. lawmakers in November that the U.S. Defense Department and other analysts believed that China was developing anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs). They would have a range of up to 3,000 km and carry maneuverable re-entry vehicles with warheads designed to hit moving naval ships. The missiles would be launched by rocket propulsion from land in an arc-like trajectory high into the atmosphere and travel at speeds of up to 24,000 km per hour when coming down, making them very hard to defend against.

Ballistic missiles have traditionally been used to attack fixed targets on land and O'Rourke noted that the U.S. Navy had "not previously faced a threat from highly accurate ballistic missiles capable of hitting moving ships at sea. Due to their ability to change course, maneuverable re-entry vehicles (MRVs) would be more difficult to intercept than nonmaneuvering ballistic missile re-entry vehicles."

Some analysts are skeptical and doubt that China has made all the technical breakthroughs needed for an accurate ASBM system. The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence concluded in 2004 that it would be "very difficult" for China to field an ASBM force that could successfully track faraway aircraft carriers and other major warships, which can travel at sustained speeds of over 30 knots (55 km) per hour, and then hit them with MRV warheads.

The Bush administration spent billions of dollars to develop defenses against ballistic missiles. However, President Barack Obama says that while he supports missile defense, he wants to be sure that programs are affordable and proven.


One of the more successful parts of the U.S. program, the Aegis ship-based system to defend against shorter-range missiles, experienced two recent test failures, bringing its record to 13 hits in 17 intercept attempts. Even so, it is not designed to provide a shield against the longer range missiles China is reportedly trying to turn into weapons for use against naval vessels.

The Pentagon's latest annual report to Congress on Chinese military power, published last year, said that when incorporated into a sophisticated command and control system, China's ASBMs would be a key component of its strategy to give the Chinese armed forces "the capability to attack ships at sea, including aircraft carriers, from great distances" so as to deny access to waters around China. Some analysts claim that China already operates over-the-horizon radar installations to detect and track ships far out at sea and is backing this up with maritime surveillance using its own satellites in space. They say that China will soon test an ASBM.

If they are correct and the new system works, it could turn potent symbols of naval power into sitting ducks.
Michael Richardson is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090122a3.html   
 
Victory to Dreadnought.  Dreadnought to Bismarck.  Bismarck to Enterprise.  Enterprise to SSB(n).

Bombardment is the message.  The Enterprise era is noteworthy because the bombs were guided by ride-on bombardiers.  The others were, and are, guided by mathematics. Denuclearizing ballistic missiles will make them a lot more useable.
 
Swarms of small aircraft carriers deploying UAV's might be new direction the USN could go. The "Arsenal Ship" concept might also be revived as the next generation means of carrying the fight to the enemy from the sea. Finally, although the DDX concept has been shelved for now, next generation "all electric" ships using 40+ Megajoule railgun weapons can attack targets 4-600 Km distant on much smaller platforms than current USN carriers.
 
Looks like Beijing and the PLA are trying their own hand at "soft-power" after noticing the impact of such ships like the USNS COMFORT.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/26/beijing-hospital-ship-harbors-soft-power/

BEIJING

China's military has a new weapon in the country's soft-power arsenal that copies a technique long used by the United States - a 10,000-ton hospital ship to be deployed for humanitarian purposes in Asia and beyond.

The vessel, dubbed Ship 866, is meant to soften China's image overseas and allay concerns among its neighbors over its navy´s growing strength, while at the same time adding to its military capabilities, analysts say.

The ship's arrival coincides with clear signs that the Chinese military is tentatively moving away from its policy of maintaining a low international profile to avoid provoking those who doubt its commitment to a "peaceful rise" doctrine.


Chinese warships last month began patrolling the pirate-plagued waters in the Gulf of Aden - the first time they have ventured out of the Pacific on a combat mission since the 15th century. A top Chinese defense military official said recently that China is seriously considering adding its first aircraft carrier to its naval fleet.

Ship 866 makes "the country one of the few in the world that has medical care and emergency rescue capabilities on the high seas while also raising the capability of the Chinese navy to accomplish diversified military missions," the Communist Party newspaper People´s Daily said recently.

Specialized hospital ships have military purposes - to treat battlefield casualties and provide support to amphibious assault ships - but are used most often for humanitarian and disaster relief missions, said Robert Work, a naval analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington.

"A hospital ship becomes an extremely important symbol of a country´s soft power," he said. "Even if it does have a military mission, 99 percent of its service life is probably going to be spent on soft-power missions."

The United States has two dedicated hospital ships, each equipped with 1,000 hospital beds: the USNS Comfort and USNS Mercy.

The Mercy completed a four-month humanitarian deployment in the Western Pacific last year, treating patients in Vietnam and the Philippines. The United States also deployed its assault ship USS Kearsarge, which possesses extensive medical facilities, on a four-month aid tour of Latin America toward the end of last year.

Links:

http://www.google.com/search?q=Ship+866&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

P200811031624292849528000.jpg


http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/90786/6526458.html

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/Article.aspx?id=2908

"If they were only building a hospital ship, I'd be prepared to start thinking about it on humanitarian assistance level, but when they build this [Type 071] landing ship dock simultaneously, I tend to think the decision to build them was made at the same meeting, part of a common plan" for potential island attacks.
http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/amphibious/type071.asp
http://www.google.com/search?q=Type+071+landing+ship+dock&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a



 
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