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China proposing further "Military Cooperation"?

CougarKing

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China scholar David Shambaugh repeatedly discussed in his books how the Bush administration has shifted from the Clinton's policy of China as a "Strategic Partner" to one where one China is a "strategic competitor".

(BTW, to the Mods, feel free to merge it with this other thread "China to Strengthen Military" http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/55192/post-538529.html#new , but I believe this topic deserves its own thread)

Still should this new initiative on China's part be a willingness on Beijing's part to repair the damage done to Sino-US relations since the US Orion "Spy Plane" Incident where that PLAAF fighter collided with that Orion? Well there have been a return in the past couple of years to the military exchanges that existed before the Spy Plane incident, according to the Shambaugh's "Modernizing the People's Liberation Army", but not on the level suggested on the article.

What do you think, folks?

China's Military Proposes Cooperation
Associated Press  |  March 24, 2007
BEIJING - China's military is proposing officer exchanges and other confidence-building measures with the U.S. Army and may be inching closer to setting up a "hotline" for emergency communication with Washington, the top U.S. general said Friday. However, Marine Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he received no new information in meetings with Chinese military chiefs about Beijing's test of an anti-satellite weapon in January that raised concern in Washington. He said he continued to press China's generals for more transparency about the aims of their military buildup.

"I used the example of the anti-satellite test as how sometimes the international community can be confused, because it was a surprise that China did that, and it wasn't clear what their intent was," Pace said.

Pace said he immediately agreed to study the proposals put forward Friday by Gen. Liang Guanglie, chief of the PLA's General Staff Department. Liang's move suggested a departure from the skepticism with which the highly secretive People's Liberation Army has long regarded cooperation with the U.S. military.

"To me this was a very good, open discussion and one that I found very encouraging," Pace told reporters in Beijing.

Liang's proposals included sending Chinese cadets to the Army academy at West Point as well as participating in joint exercises and humanitarian and relief-at-sea operations "that might be able to build trust and confidence amongst our forces."

Military exchanges were largely suspended following a collision between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter over the South China Sea in 2001. The Chinese pilot was killed and the U.S. crew held captive after making an emergency landing at a Chinese air base.

During that crisis, communication between the sides was spotty and at times nonexistent, largely because Washington had no direct channel of communications with the Chinese leadership.

Pace said the sides agreed to keep discussing setting up a "hotline" between either military or civilian leaders that would help ease any future friction.

"The Chinese military understands as well as I do that the opportunity to pick up the phone and talk to somebody you know and smooth out misunderstandings quickly is a very important part of relations between two countries," Pace said.

Deep mistrust remains, however, particularly over Washington's close military ties with Japan and commitment to help ensure the defense of Taiwan, the self-governing island that China considers its own territory and which it has threatened to use force to recover.

China has complained about U.S. plans to sell a batch of more than 400 missiles to Taiwan, but Pace said he had no details and didn't indicate whether the deal was mentioned in discussions.

Asked about the possibility of a conflict over Taiwan, he said: "I believe there are good faith efforts among all the leadership to prevent that."

The general didn't say how the Chinese officers responded to his calls for more transparency. China raised its military budget by 17.8 percent this year to about $45 billion - the biggest jump since 1995. The Pentagon says actual Chinese defense spending could be twice as high.

The spending boost and January's satellite test, in which China became only the third country to destroy an object in space by pulverizing one of its own unused satellites with a missile warhead, heightened the sense of unease in Washington over China's 2.3 million-member armed forces.

 
The Chinese have a very aggressive spying program designed to ferret out technical secrets. Having exchange programs would be an extension of that. The other area the Chinese are interested in is how we operate. They have seen the results of our military capabilities in DS,OIF and OEF. Much in the way they are reorganizing and modernizing their forces is evidence of this.They are also investing in technologies that will hit at our achilles heal - our dependence on technology.Currently the center of much of the worlds hacker activity comes from China. They constantly look for flaws in the defense information infrastructure.Their test in Jan. of an anti-satellite weapon is another key capability for them. If they can blind the US by destroying GPS satellites, communications and intel satellites the US would be at a great disadvantage. Much of what the Chinese are doing is in preparation for a face off over Taiwan.

I suspect that Chinese planners envision a scenario where they could blind US satellites as they launch an invasion of Taiwan. They may conclude that if they can move quickly into Taiwan it would present the US with a fait accompli. Once an invasion is underway a US administration may decide it isnt worth the risk to US air and naval forces to intervene. However, if a lightning strike gets bogged down then pressure would mount for US involvement. At that point it gets expensive for the Chinese to interfere with our satellites because we would start knocking theirs out of space. The invasion staging areas would be targeted by the USN and Chinese airfields supporting the invasion would be neutralized. At this point the Chinese would stand down. They dont want war with the US that might escalate to a nuclear exchange because they dont have an extensive ICBM force and with a limited US ABM defense the Chinese would be the loser.
 
I'm a strong supporter of building trust between the PLA and western militaries, yet a lot of people here still remain very, very sore regarding the 1999 bombing of their embassy in Serbia.  Personally, I believe that one incident set back relations more than anything else, and it will be a long time before trust on either side begins to develop to noticible levels.  During the Tiananmen protests, there was a paper-mache statue of liberty as the unofficial mascot of the democracy movements...after the embassy bombings, there were paper mache statues being burnt. 
 
Further to T6's comments

China Builds A Backup GPS System for Wartime
March 23, 2007
Article Link

China is building a satellite positioning system that they may reserve solely for military use, and only in wartime at that. This would enable China to jam GPS, or destroy GPS satellites, while using their more distant (and thus more difficult to destroy) satellite positioning system. All this came out of what was shaping up to be a technological disaster.

Chinas foray into military space satellites has produced a lot of failed experiments, as have their other efforts to develop high tech. For example, back in 2003, China completed a satellite navigation system called BeiDou. Think of it as GPS light, and different, and potentially not very useful. BeiDou only covers East Asia, but not all of China. But it covers the areas along the coast, and Taiwan. The BeiDou system is less accurate than GPS, slower, but it does allow two way traffic. This is useful for sending short messages (up to 120 Chinese characters so, about a hundred words). Sort of IM (Instant Messaging) class stuff. The system can only handle a few hundred thousand users, but that would be sufficient for the number of Chinese troops involved in any major operation. BeiDou also suffers some reliability problems, and is apparently very vulnerable to jamming and spoofing. Because of all that, it is believed that BeiDou is just a first generation system. A training system, one where China learns the ins and outs of building satellite navigation systems.
More on link
 
Nations have permanent interests, not permanent friends. The Chinese probably feel their interests are aligned with the west right now on the issue of Islamic fundamentalism, and would cooperate on that issue. China has moderated it's historical antipathy against Russia in an alliance of convenience against the West. China is also entering a bewildering web of economic alliances both with and against the west. (i.e joining the WTO and supporting Iran and Venezuela)

Rather than attempting to believe six impossible things before breakfast, simply look at the intended outcome of all these initiatives: the security and well being of the Middle Kingdom. The West has done this for centuries under the guise of "Realpolitik". The second one of these initiatives fails to deliver, the Chinese will end it.
 
Autocracy and information control are strong drivers of self delusion. The history of countries run like China is allways one of failure after failure. That they can pull off a few 'wins' when politics and reality happen to line up just helps hide the fact that in so many other areas dismal failures are being actively hidden. All countries of course suffer from this but for a country like China the problem is much much worse.
 
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