Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

[Altair]

The CPC need to sway about 5% of the voters. That’s it. They can do that if they recognize and start to control the message.

5 Percent?

So everyone who voted LPC, NDP and PPC in Alberta votes CPC and they win?

Sounds to me like they need to start winning in urban canada

 

[Good2Golf]

…and people complain about American gerrymandering…

There’s a reason that Trudeau’s promise of electoral reform was just hollow-worded BS.

 

[mariomike]

…and people complain about American gerrymandering…

Opinions vary...

Gerrymandering is a pretty weak excuse for long term poor performance, not backed up by any actual evidence. We don't have the same political interference in the Elections Canada process that you see regularly in the US.

 

[Halifax Tar]

…and people complain about American gerrymandering…

There’s a reason that Trudeau’s promise of electoral reform was just hollow-worded BS.

I was one duped into voting for the LPC because of his promise for electoral reform.

I wish I had been smart enough to see he meant only if the new system would guarantee us Liberal governments until the return of Jesus.

 

[Jarnhamar]

That's not exactly how MMP works, so no.

Ah, true true. It's tricky figuring out when to support something "because the majority thinks so" and when it doesn't count.

 

[suffolkowner]

5 Percent?

So everyone who voted LPC, NDP and PPC in Alberta votes CPC and they win?

Sounds to me like they need to start winning in urban canada

Well maybe 5% from the 905. I voted Conservative this election for the first time since Mulroney 1. But I think the number of people that can or will switch their votes between the Liberals and the Conservatives is shrinking and I think that this is a bad thing for our democracy

 

[Halifax Tar]

Well maybe 5% from the 905. I voted Conservative this election for the first time since Mulroney 1. But I think the number of people that can or will switch their votes between the Liberals and the Conservatives is shrinking and I think that this is a bad thing for our democracy

You're 100% right. Bread and circuses have been a vote getter since way before a Centurion was a tank.

 

[suffolkowner]

You're 100% right. Bread and circuses have been a vote getter since way before a Centurion was a tank.

but how come I never seem to get any bread or circuses for myself!?! I'm bribeable too!

 

[Halifax Tar]

but how come I never seem to get any bread or circuses for myself!?! I'm bribeable too!

The bread has raisins and liberal spice and the circuses went out of favor decades ago

 

[Good2Golf]

Opinions vary...

Facts don’t, though. Canada’s 2021 election saw a government (re)formed with the lowest popular vote in recent times — 32.6% (5,556,629) and 1.1% (190,781) lower than the 2nd place party at 33.7% (5,747,410).

Using the Gallagher Index (Least squares of difference - LSq) of assessing vote proportionality, ie. how close representation came to the proportionality of the overall vote, Canada actually is quantitatively worse (and worsening) compared to the United States.

In 2015, Canada’s 42nd Election had a GI of 12.02. In 2016, in the United States the Presidential vote has a GI of 9.34 and the Congress a GI of 5.25. (Ref: the art’s .pdf below, with embedded links to related refs.)

So in 2016, the Canadian parliamentary Special Committee on Electoral Reform assesses that a fairer electoral system should have a GI of 5 or less. Buuuut…PMJT & Co. do the math and realize that the higher the GI the more likely they stay in power because they benefit from disproportionate representation (ie. Getting WAY more seats than #2, even though they had lower popular vote). Worsening GI of 12.01 in 2015 (Majority), then 12.74 (Minority) in 2019, then even less proportional in 2021 - 13.4.

At this rate of LPC ensconcement, I don’t think we’ll ever see electoral reform. The Liberals
have it too good, and the Conservatives continue to help them with their inability to increase vote effectiveness.

 

[Altair]

Facts don’t, though. Canada’s 2021 election saw a government (re)formed with the lowest popular vote in recent times — 32.6% (5,556,629) and 1.1% (190,781) lower than the 2nd place party at 33.7% (5,747,410).

Using the Gallagher Index (Least squares of difference - LSq) of assessing vote proportionality, ie. how close representation came to the proportionality of the overall vote, Canada actually is quantitatively worse (and worsening) compared to the United States.

In 2015, Canada’s 42nd Election had a GI of 12.02. In 2016, in the United States the Presidential vote has a GI of 9.34 and the Congress a GI of 5.25. (Ref: the art’s .pdf below, with embedded links to related refs.)

So in 2016, the Canadian parliamentary Special Committee on Electoral Reform assesses that a fairer electoral system should have a GI of 5 or less. Buuuut…PMJT & Co. do the math and realize that the higher the GI the more likely they stay in power because they benefit from disproportionate representation (ie. Getting WAY more seats than #2, even though they had lower popular vote). Worsening GI of 12.01 in 2015 (Majority), then 12.74 (Minority) in 2019, then even less proportional in 2021 - 13.4.

At this rate of LPC ensconcement, I don’t think we’ll ever see electoral reform. The Liberals
have it too good, and the Conservatives continue to help them with their inability to increase vote effectiveness.

If it was just the LPC against electoral reform I would have hope for electoral reform.

But its not. The CPC isn't on board with it either. I think they know that any move towards a proportional system would all but eliminate majority governments and they would be at the mercy of the 3 other progressive parties for the rest of time. They can't have that. Any move to a ranked ballot would advantage the LPC as they are the more obvious second choice of many people and they cannot have that. So what's left for the CPC to support? They are vague on the topic other than to say

The Conservative Party believes the discussion of possible changes to the electoral system is valuable in a healthy democracy. In reviewing options for electoral reform, we believe the government should not endorse any new electoral system that will weaken the link between Members of Parliament and their constituents, that will create unmanageably large ridings, or that will strengthen the control of the party machinery over individual Members of Parliament. 4 A national referendum must be held prior to implementing any future electoral reform proposal.

This is from 2018 but they have said precious little else on the subject since, so its the best I have to go on. MMP has party lists and larger ridings so that's out. And referendums are code words used to kill any potential changes. The bloc uses the term referendum as well when talking about electoral reform, knowing full well that the only reason they carry the strength that they do is because of FPTP and their concentrated vote.

So the 3 biggest parties, the LPC, the CPC and the BQ are all against it. That's why I have no hope of it ever coming to pass.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

But didn't only one major party run on this issue?

 

[Good2Golf]

But didn't only one major party run on this issue?

Mais ouais!!!

 

[Altair]

But didn't only one major party run on this issue?

If you consider the NDP a major party, they run on it all the time.

As for the LPC, they ran on it and backtracked.

And the CPC is happy with the status quo.

So it the BQ.

I mean, its a minority government. If all the opposition parties ganged together and voted for MMP then the LPC would have a hard time shutting that down. But you wont see that. The 3 biggest parties all have a vested interest in making sure it doesn't happen. And at that point, it doesn't matter if the LPC is against electoral reform. They have a lot of help in that regard. 312 MPs against electoral reform, its never happening.

 

[Halifax Tar]

If you consider the NDP a major party, they run on it all the time.

As for the LPC, they ran on it and backtracked.

And the CPC is happy with the status quo.

So it the BQ.

I mean, its a minority government. If all the opposition parties ganged together and voted for MMP then the LPC would have a hard time shutting that down. But you wont see that. The 3 biggest parties all have a vested interest in making sure it doesn't happen. And at that point, it doesn't matter if the LPC is against electoral reform. They have a lot of help in that regard. 312 MPs against electoral reform, its never happening.

Sooooooo... yes then ?

 

[Altair]

Sooooooo... yes then ?

Yes to what?

 

[Halifax Tar]

But didn't only one major party run on this issue?

Yes to what?

The the quote above yours.

 

[Altair]

The the quote above yours.

Yes, one major party ran on it and backtracked.

Does this give the BQ and CPC a pass on never supporting it? No.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

I may be mistaken but I do believe he had a majority when he/they ran on that....

 

[Halifax Tar]

I may be mistaken but I do believe he had a majority when he/they ran on that....

By golly I think you're right!

Yes, one major party ran on it and backtracked.

Does this give the BQ and CPC a pass on never supporting it? No.