US VS G7

[SeaKingTacco]

And canada couldn't defeat the Germans in WW2,  but we had help,  didn't we?

Your analogy sucks. The Germans were (largely) defeated by the Russians. This is not World War 2 and the United States of America are orders of magnitude more powerful economically and militarily than Germany was then. And, at the end of the day, Americans are not our enemy!. They are our closest neighbour and trading partner- current irritants aside.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I still, for the life of me, cannot figure out why 12,000 (ish) dairy farmers in Canada are being defended like they are the Crown Jewels....

Because: Quebec.

"I accepted for a period of time that the Quebec dairy establishment was the third rail of separation politics, but the arguments are wearing thin, as I reflect on the relative costs of food across Canada. When Island dairy farmers (remember Island Proud) sold out to the Quebec dairy cartel, they lost my goodwill." http://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/letters/too-much-deference-to-farm-lobby-1.23343865

 

[Altair]

Your analogy sucks. The Germans were (largely) defeated by the Russians. This is not World War 2 and the United States of America are orders of magnitude more powerful economically and militarily than Germany was then. And, at the end of the day, Americans are not our enemy!. They are our closest neighbour and trading partner- current irritants aside.

my analogy is spot on.

The Americans will largely be defeated by Chiba in this case,  who have very big guns to bring to this fight. Canada would be playing a support role.

And in this case,  America is our enemy. America is the one threatening canadian livelyhoods on some factless crusade against our country.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/427292002

Trudeau came to see me. He’s a good guy, Justin. He said, ‘No, no, we have no trade deficit with you, we have none. Donald, please,’ ” Trump said, according to audio obtained by the Post of the private event in Missouri on Wednesday. “Nice guy, good-looking guy, comes in — ‘Donald, we have no trade deficit.’ He’s very proud because everybody else, you know, we’re getting killed.

“... So, he’s proud. I said, ‘Wrong, Justin, you do.’ I didn’t even know. ... I had no idea. I just said, ‘You’re wrong.’ You know why? Because we’re so stupid. … And I thought they were smart. I said, ‘You’re wrong, Justin.’ He said, ‘Nope, we have no trade deficit.’ I said, ‘Well, in that case, I feel differently,’ I said, ‘but I don’t believe it.’ I sent one of our guys out, his guy, my guy, they went out, I said, ‘Check, because I can’t believe it.’

Well, sir, you’re actually right. We have no deficit, but that doesn’t include energy and timber. … And when you do, we lose $17 billion a year.’ It’s incredible.”

The Office of the United States Trade Representative says the United States had a $12.1 billion trade surplus with Canada in 2016.

So in this case,  where they will so nonchalantly throw our shared interests,  long history of cooperation,  and lucrative trade away on the back of blatant lies and mistruths,  they,  IMHO,  are not our friend and ally. They are our opponents in a global trade conflict,  they seek out to do harm to the canadian economy,  and economics of others for their own gain,  and for that reason,  I fully support every effort to harm theirs right back.

Hopefully when enough Americans are hurting from a trade conflict brought on by their leadership,  they, as a democracy, will decide a change of leadership is necessary.

 

[tomahawk6]

Does Canada have any refineries ? I found a number that I didn't believe.That the US exported oil to Canada.True or false ?

 

[SeaKingTacco]

my analogy is spot on.

The Americans will largely be defeated by Chiba in this case,  who have very big guns to bring to this fight. Canada would be playing a support role.

And in this case,  America is our enemy. America is the one threatening canadian livelyhoods on some factless crusade against our country.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/427292002
So in this case,  where they will so nonchalantly throw our shared interests,  long history of cooperation,  and lucrative trade away on the back of blatant lies and mistruths,  they,  IMHO,  are not our friend and ally. They are our opponents in a global trade conflict,  they seek out to do harm to the canadian economy,  and economics of others for their own gain,  and for that reason,  I fully support every effort to harm theirs right back.

Hopefully when enough Americans are hurting from a trade conflict brought on by their leadership,  they, as a democracy, will decide a change of leadership is necessary.

So, how does that one Donald Trump quote make all of the United States of America our enemy, on par (according to you) with Nazi Germany?

You have no idea of what you speak.

 

[Journeyman]

Hopefully when enough Americans are hurting from a trade conflict brought on by their leadership,  they, as a democracy, will decide a change of leadership is necessary.

1)  A significant percentage of Americans will likely believe that any economic hardship is brought on by the evil foreign counter-tariffs, not Trump;  not only are 'facts' irrelevant, but "retaliatory" has wa-aaay  too many syllables for those informed solely by Fox & Friends.  They would believe that any financial heartache simply "proves" Trump was right all along.*

2)  If they do change leadership, who's to say it's not a Mike Pence?  He is every bit as economically protectionist, but also suffers from an increasingly rabid, born-again evangelical ideology -- his track record as governor shows that he considers the concept of 'separation of church and state' to be an abomination. 

Careful what you wish for.



* Confirmation bias:  basically, one is more likely to look for, notice, and remember anything that confirms opinions already held.

 

[Altair]

So, how does that one Donald Trump quote make all of the United States of America our enemy, on par (according to you) with Nazi Germany?

You have no idea of what you speak.

You show me where I called America an enemy on par with Nazi germany?

I'll wait.  ;D

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Does Canada have any refineries ? I found a number that I didn't believe.That the US exported oil to Canada.True or false ?

Canada has about 15 refineries left, IIRC.

We don't import oil from the US, so much as refined petroleum product into certain markets (BC lower mainland, for example). We also export refined product to the US, as well.

The point is that North America is a highly integrated market for petroleum. It generally moves where it can be refined cheapest and sold for the highest profit, without regard to the Canada-US border.

 

[Altair]

1)  A significant percentage of Americans will likely believe that any economic hardship is brought on by the evil foreign counter-tariffs, not Trump;  not only are 'facts' irrelevant, but "retaliatory" has wa-aaay  too many syllables for those informed solely by Fox & Friends.  They would believe that any financial heartache simply "proves" Trump was right all along.*

2)  If they do change leadership, who's to say it's not a Mike Pence?  He is every bit as economically protectionist, but also suffers from an increasingly rabid, born-again evangelical ideology -- his track record as governor shows that he considers the concept of 'separation of church and state' to be an abomination. 

Careful what you wish for.



* Confirmation bias:  basically, one is more likely to look for, notice, and remember anything that confirms opinions already held.

1) politics is anything but predictable, so we shall see.

2) I would rather deal with an adult.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

And canada couldn't defeat the Germans in WW2,  but we had help,  didn't we?

No problem.

 

[Altair]

No problem.

its simply an example of canada working with others to defeat a much larger opponent,  it was in no way calling America Nazi Germany.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

its simply an example of canada working with others to defeat a much larger opponent,  it was in no way calling America Nazi Germany.

Well, good. I am glad we cleared that up.

 

[Altair]

Well, good. I am glad we cleared that up.

We may not agree but its still nice to keep it above board.

 

[Blackadder1916]

Take a look at the drop list of countries the US gives aid to. I was surprised.

https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/CAN?fiscal_year=2016&measure=Disbursements

What surprised me is that the US government is identifying that $21 million as "aid" to Canada.  Actually, it shouldn't surprise anyone, it is just the usual spinning a story to suit their narrative.  If one drills down deeper to what that money is for, it quickly becomes obvious (since the primary recipient of the funds is "Ducks Unlimited" - different from the Canadian subsidiary "Ducks Unlimited Canada") that it has something to do with migratory birds and wetlands conservation.  So why would the US government be handing out money for such a frivolous activity.  Maybe they still realize, as they did 100 years ago when the US and the United Kingdom (representing Canada) signed the

CONVENTION BETWEEN THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE UNITED STATES FOR THE PROTECTION OF MIGRATORY BIRDS IN CANADA AND THE UNITED STATES

Whereas, many species of birds in the course of their annual migrations traverse certain parts of the Dominion of Canada and the United States; and

Whereas, many of these species are of great value as a source of food or in destroying insects which are injurious to forests and forage plants on the public domain, as well as to agricultural crops, in both Canada and the United States, but are nevertheless in danger of extermination through lack of adequate protection during the nesting season or while on their way to and from their breeding grounds;

His Majesty the King of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland and of the British dominions beyond the seas, Emperor of India, and the United States of America, being desirous of saving from indiscriminate slaughter and of insuring the preservation of such migratory birds as are either useful to man or are harmless, have resolved to adopt some uniform system of protection which shall effectively accomplish such objects, . . .

So someone south of the border realized if they want to shoot and eat ducks and geese (a most enjoyable pastime - but yeah the other things are important too) then their habitats and breeding areas (many of which are in Canada) have to be saved.  What an unusual concept, paying someone for something you want, very capitalistic in nature.

And maybe that is why the US Congress included the following in the DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, ENVIRONMENT, AND RELATED AGENCIES APPROPRIATIONS ACT, 2018

north american wetlands conservation fund

      For expenses necessary to carry out the provisions of the
    North American Wetlands Conservation Act (16 U.S.C. 4401 et
    seq.), $38,145,000, to remain available until expended.

And how does the US government spend that money?
https://www.fws.gov/birds/grants/north-american-wetland-conservation-act.php

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Nice piece of research.

 

[a_majoor]

Thucydides, I’d be very interested to hear your thoughts about how the US intends to repeal the 2014 Congressional Farming Appropriation Act to remove massive farm (both agricultural and dairy) subsidies?  As well, very interested to hear your perspective on the Wisconsin Dairy Farming Board, that represents a large portion of the small to medium sized family owned dairy farms, that  makes the case for a supply managed methodology like Canada’s to give its members greater stability in the production (and export) of dairy products, thereby reducing the perturbations that contribute to small producers’ closure and absorption by large dairy producing conglomerates?

SKT, agree combination political play for manoeuvre time, including targeted engagement with key American trade players who have constituents who will be disproportionately impacted by import tariffs, is a sound COA. :nod:

Regards
G2G

I can't claim to know how the Congress is going to react, but since trade is a two way street and the President's expressed end goal is the repeal of tariffs and subsidies, I can imagine some of the pain of being cut off from larger global markets will give the President some sort of leverage against the Congress.

Perhaps this is another level to the game, changing some of the relative power groupings inside the Untied States. Many of the President's domestic policies have essentially changed the playing field against current "rent seekers", so this could be more of the same. (Consider the President being able to "self fund" his own election campaign from the primaries onwards had the effect of cutting off professional fund raisers and other political rent seekers from the huge cash flow typical of elections, since they simply were not needed. This would explain a great deal of anger against President Trump from the GOP side).

We need to keep in mind known data points like the President's long standing desire to reduce or eliminate trade deficits and "unfair" trade deals (once again, there is a 1989 interview where he states exactly that when asked if he would run for President), his desire for nominal allies to start picking up their share of burden sharing, the desire to "drain the swamp" of domestic politics and the desire to keep America secure within her own borders. Unless analysis is based on seeing and understanding how the President's actions move towards these goals, then I think anything put forward by the chattering classes (or me, for that matter) will be off the mark.

 

[Eaglelord17]

I can't claim to know how the Congress is going to react, but since trade is a two way street and the President's expressed end goal is the repeal of tariffs and subsidies, I can imagine some of the pain of being cut off from larger global markets will give the President some sort of leverage against the Congress.

Congress is apparently putting though a bill right now that would prevent the President from unilaterally declaring tariffs. Personally I think that is a good thing as the intent of the current law is to allow the President to impose tariffs for national security, clearly something that it is not being used for.

 

[Altair]

Congress is apparently putting though a bill right now that would prevent the President from unilaterally declaring tariffs. Personally I think that is a good thing as the intent of the current law is to allow the President to impose tariffs for national security, clearly something that it is not being used for.

that got squashed.

Republicans were afraid it would upset the president

https://globalnews.ca/news/4270314/tariffs-aluminum-steel-bob-corker-poke-bear/

Tennessee Republican Sen. Bob Corker ripped into his party Tuesday for sidestepping a vote on his amendment to roll back U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade authority — by blocking it altogether.

In a passionate speech on the Senate floor, Corker argued that Republicans were blocking his trade proposal because they feared what Trump might do to the party if they upset him ahead of an election

 

[tomahawk6]

Peter Navarro is the trade hawk at the White House.In 1984 he wrote this book: "The Policy Game: How Special Interests and Ideologues are Stealing America.The book is out of print.You might find a copy on the internet or Axios.

 

[Altair]

http://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/china-eu-to-form-group-to-modernize-global-trade-rules

Europe and China will form a group aimed at updating global trade rules to address technology policy, government subsidies and other emerging complaints in a bid to preserve support for international commerce, the vice-president of the European Union’s governing body said Monday.

European Commission Vice-President Jyrki Katainen said unilateral action by U.S. President Donald Trump in disputes over steel, China’s technology policy and other issues highlighted the need to modernize the World Trade Organization to reflect developments in the world economy.

U.S. officials have said the WTO, the Geneva-based arbiter of world trade rules, is bureaucratic, rigid and slow to adapt to changes in global business and needs an overhaul.

Katainen said he did not expect negotiations on updating trade rules to be easy but that they were necessary to save the environment for multilateral trade.

Look at who wasn't invited. America abdicating it's position as a global leader in matters of trade.

MAGA.