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US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021

dapaterson

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The one child policy will restrict Chinese expeditionary operations for the foreseeable future; parents losing their only child would create significant social unrest.

Of course, with that policy now loosened, watch out in 2040 and beyond...
 

Colin Parkinson

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they recently implemented the 3 child policy, to much mockery of the people, who ask how anyone can afford 3 kids. they have serious demographic problems. It would be illuminating to see where they draw most of their PLA recruits from?
 

daftandbarmy

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they recently implemented the 3 child policy, to much mockery of the people, who ask how anyone can afford 3 kids. they have serious demographic problems. It would be illuminating to see where they draw most of their PLA recruits from?

They still have a couple billion people. I don't think it will be hard to find a few million conscripts with those numbers.
 

The Bread Guy

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Just tossing this in from the American Economic Review as grist for the mill ...
How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study this issue by examining the recent, large-scale security transition from international troops to local forces in the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan ... We find a significant, sharp, and timely decline of insurgent violence in the initial phase: the security transfer to Afghan forces. We find that this is followed by a significant surge in violence in the second phase: the actual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal to capitalize on the reduced foreign military presence afterward ...
 

daftandbarmy

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Just tossing this in from the American Economic Review as grist for the mill ...

Any extraction plan has to be set within the context of a broader diplomatic/ international political effort to ensure that the Taliban are cut off from resources. Pakistan's support for the Taliban, tacit or otherwise, doesn't help for example:

"Long before the Taliban started advancing towards Kabul, donations for them were on an upswing in Balochistan and other border areas of Pakistan. According to reports, Afghan Taliban fighters stay with coal miners in the nearby mountains and come to the bazaar area every Friday to solicit 5,000-10,000 Pakistani rupees (INR 2,500-5,000) from shopkeepers."

 

Colin Parkinson

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It is insane that Pakistan argues with Afghanistan as to where the border is, but has almost no real control of the entire NWF. Of course logic and Pakistan are not well acquainted. A stable Afghanistan that is developing would be a economic boom for Pakistan, but that would require the various groups in Pakistan to relinquish small amounts of power and control. Not going to happen.
Eventually the Taliban are going to do something stupid against the Shia's there and you see Iran invade Western Afghanistan likely aiming for control of Heret, Farah and Zabol
 

Halifax Tar

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I saw something on FB, and I have no idea how accurate it is, but it was posted that Ma‘şūm Ghar had fallen to the Taliban.

Tough pill to swallow if true im sure.
 

daftandbarmy

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Bagram handed over to Afghan forces, precipitously it seems:


U.S. hands Bagram Airfield to Afghans after nearly 20 years

After nearly 20 years, the U.S. military left Bagram Airfield, the epicenter of its war to oust the Taliban and hunt down the al Qaeda perpetrators of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America, two U.S. officials said Friday.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan's district administrator for Bagram, Darwaish Raufi, said the American departure was done overnight without any coordination with local officials, and as a result early Friday dozens of local looters stormed through the unprotected gates before Afghan forces regained control.

"They were stopped and some have been arrested and the rest have been cleared from the base," Raufi told The Associated Press, adding that the looters ransacked several buildings before being arrested and the Afghan National Security and Defence Forces (ANDSF) took control.

 

OldSolduer

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Bagram handed over to Afghan forces, precipitously it seems:


U.S. hands Bagram Airfield to Afghans after nearly 20 years

After nearly 20 years, the U.S. military left Bagram Airfield, the epicenter of its war to oust the Taliban and hunt down the al Qaeda perpetrators of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America, two U.S. officials said Friday.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan's district administrator for Bagram, Darwaish Raufi, said the American departure was done overnight without any coordination with local officials, and as a result early Friday dozens of local looters stormed through the unprotected gates before Afghan forces regained control.

"They were stopped and some have been arrested and the rest have been cleared from the base," Raufi told The Associated Press, adding that the looters ransacked several buildings before being arrested and the Afghan National Security and Defence Forces (ANDSF) took control.

WTF????? Really???

My son underwent surgery in Bagram. But I digress.
 

Colin Parkinson

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Bagram handed over to Afghan forces, precipitously it seems:


U.S. hands Bagram Airfield to Afghans after nearly 20 years

After nearly 20 years, the U.S. military left Bagram Airfield, the epicenter of its war to oust the Taliban and hunt down the al Qaeda perpetrators of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America, two U.S. officials said Friday.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan's district administrator for Bagram, Darwaish Raufi, said the American departure was done overnight without any coordination with local officials, and as a result early Friday dozens of local looters stormed through the unprotected gates before Afghan forces regained control.

"They were stopped and some have been arrested and the rest have been cleared from the base," Raufi told The Associated Press, adding that the looters ransacked several buildings before being arrested and the Afghan National Security and Defence Forces (ANDSF) took control.

My guess is the US did try to coordinate, but the Afghans were holding out for some sort of deal and were shocked when the US just said "bye"
 

Good2Golf

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The ‘clunk’ of the retracting landing gear on the last C-17 out should have been a good indicator…
 

MarkOttawa

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Biden at presser today: "I'm not going to answer any more questions on Afghanistan." Sweet, really open and transparent--video here:


Mark
Ottawa
 

Brad Sallows

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We're about where I figured we'd eventually be. As I was saying/writing back when this all got rolling, give it a shot. When ultimately it fails, don't be in such a hurry to effect change where the culture isn't ready for it. Choose less ambitious exit conditions.
 

The Bread Guy

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You can only be so ruthless for so long and the Taliban really don't have much else to offer ....
Unless the Afghan government gets all corrupt-y and such to the point where the Taliban's "law, order & predictability" platform might appeal as it did during Taliban 1.0 times.

Besides, according to the Taliban info-machine (attached from yesterday), all is good, bruh ....
... analysts imagined that perhaps the political acuity of the Afghans is so dense that they will give precedence to their differences promoted by malign foreigners over their homogeneity, or they will fall victim to the two-decade propaganda of the occupiers aimed at dividing the nation by accentuating their ethnic, regional and linguistic differences for which they had worked so tirelessly and invested heavily for years on end.

However, the past few weeks have demonstrated that the two main parties to the Afghan conflict – the Mujahideen of Islamic Emirate and forces loyal to the Kabul administration – have been embracing one another like brothers. We are seeing large groups of forces trained by the invaders defecting, laying down their weapons, renouncing their ties and being warmly welcomed by the Islamic Emirate on a daily basis ...
 

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ArmyRick

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Biden at presser today: "I'm not going to answer any more questions on Afghanistan." Sweet, really open and transparent--video here:


Mark
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Interesting. Allies kick the tar out of the third reich Germany and than stayed in Germany. Still to this day. They stayed (I think) to maintain stability and to counter an existing threat (Soviets and the warsaw pact). That threat existed for 45-50 years .

So the Taliban, is still a threat but "20 years in this war" and time to go? I am not sure this will end well for anyone.
 

The Bread Guy

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Interesting. Allies kick the tar out of the third reich Germany and than stayed in Germany. Still to this day. They stayed (I think) to maintain stability and to counter an existing threat (Soviets and the warsaw pact). That threat existed for 45-50 years ...
1) Very different appetite in a range of quarters for long-term sticking around in places these days - remember, even POTUS45 was happy to GTFO that part of the world.

2) Some out there argue that the original aim of going into AFG was to deal with Osama Bin Laden & Co. He's now long gone, so "mission accomplished?" #MissionShiftOrMissionCreep?

I'm for keeping troops or some sort of support in place to keep things better overall (like those smarter than me said upthread, you can help out without maybe quite as many people in country), but it sounds like not everyone is of the same mind.
 

Colin Parkinson

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Problem for the Taliban is that their core belief is full on Nutbarism and eventually they crack down on dissent hard and that will backfire on them. It's hardwired into their DNA. Afghanistan is a poor country and the only way to bring it up is with a smart educated and funded administration. The Taliban see higher education as a poison and they are correct, for them it's kryptonite. They may get some funding for awhile, but their methods will lose their charm with their backers soon enough.
 

Altair

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Interesting. Allies kick the tar out of the third reich Germany and than stayed in Germany. Still to this day. They stayed (I think) to maintain stability and to counter an existing threat (Soviets and the warsaw pact). That threat existed for 45-50 years .

So the Taliban, is still a threat but "20 years in this war" and time to go? I am not sure this will end well for anyone.
The Germans weren't and aren't still trying to kill them after they were defeated.

It wont end well, but that how the west fights wars. All in for a generation, but eventually cannot stand the cost in blood and treasure.

Russia, UK, France, USA, eventually there comes a point where if the fighting is still ongoing after 10-20 years, we are done.
 
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