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Trump administration 2024-2028

Good2Golf said:
The provinces’ back pocket. Kinew, Ford and Smith have made it clear to neighboring Governors that mutual best interests are at play, no matter what JT & Co. are saying…
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I think the provinces need to shut up or put up. If they actually worked out a proper Canada as per the constitution free trade deal, a 25% tariff would be a soft landing overall. We stand to lose 1-4% of GDP if there is a tariff. A internal free trade deal would soften that blow. .2-.5% of GDP right now, but if there is a tariff that would increase significantly as it would be cheaper to look to the rest of Canada for products in a lot of cases.
 
Underway said:
I think the provinces need to shut up or put up. If they actually worked out a proper Canada as per the constitution free trade deal, a 25% tariff would be a soft landing overall. We stand to lose 1-4% of GDP if there is a tariff. A internal free trade deal would soften that blow. .2-.5% of GDP right now, but if there is a tariff that would increase significantly as it would be cheaper to look to the rest of Canada for products in a lot of cases.
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Do you mean a ‘Fortress Canada’ approach where provinces bias their ‘exports’ to other provinces internal to Canada, vs to various US states?
 
Good2Golf said:
Do you mean a ‘Fortress Canada’ approach where provinces bias their ‘exports’ to other provinces internal to Canada, vs to various US states?
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No I mean that provinces instead of putting up trade barriers and different business environments harmonize everything, thus when external trade goes sideways it might be easier to order parts or items from somewhere else in Canada. Not exclusionary. More carrot than stick really.
 
To further expand, it would also allow Gov't to do retaliatory tariffs more easily. It's just something we should have done a long time ago. I understand that US tariffs on buying outside of Canada is different than Canada buying from the US.

Its pretty pathetic that Quebec is screaming about US tariffs but won't budge on marketing boards or let Alberta oil through. Or that Nova Scotia provides Canadian softwood lumber data to the US so they can raise protectionist barriers but in return give NS an exclusion to those same barriers. Etc.. etc...
 
Underway said:
To further expand, it would also allow Gov't to do retaliatory tariffs more easily. It's just something we should have done a long time ago. I understand that US tariffs on buying outside of Canada is different than Canada buying from the US.

Its pretty pathetic that Quebec is screaming about US tariffs but won't budge on marketing boards or let Alberta oil through. Or that Nova Scotia provides Canadian softwood lumber data to the US so they can raise protectionist barriers but in return give NS an exclusion to those same barriers. Etc.. etc...
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None of that sounds like a unified country acting in mutual support of all parts. Canada can't seem to operate like a sovereign nation acting in it's own best interests. "Vassal state" seems to be a more apt description, therefore it makes sense to dissolve and become additional states of the United States.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but individual states have a lot of power... more than provinces do, I think.
 
Underway said:
To further expand, it would also allow Gov't to do retaliatory tariffs more easily. It's just something we should have done a long time ago. I understand that US tariffs on buying outside of Canada is different than Canada buying from the US.

Its pretty pathetic that Quebec is screaming about US tariffs but won't budge on marketing boards or let Alberta oil through. Or that Nova Scotia provides Canadian softwood lumber data to the US so they can raise protectionist barriers but in return give NS an exclusion to those same barriers. Etc.. etc...
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Why does "Irving" pop into my mind the moment I hear this?
 
Underway said:
No I mean that provinces instead of putting up trade barriers and different business environments harmonize everything, thus when external trade goes sideways it might be easier to order parts or items from somewhere else in Canada. Not exclusionary. More carrot than stick really.
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Underway said:
To further expand, it would also allow Gov't to do retaliatory tariffs more easily. It's just something we should have done a long time ago. I understand that US tariffs on buying outside of Canada is different than Canada buying from the US.

Its pretty pathetic that Quebec is screaming about US tariffs but won't budge on marketing boards or let Alberta oil through. Or that Nova Scotia provides Canadian softwood lumber data to the US so they can raise protectionist barriers but in return give NS an exclusion to those same barriers. Etc.. etc...
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Ack. Totally tracking that and agree fully. The pan-provincial tariffs have to be one of the craziest things going, far more restrictive than what I believe is the case for state to state trade.
 
QV said:
None of that sounds like a unified country acting in mutual support of all parts. Canada can't seem to operate like a sovereign nation acting in it's own best interests. "Vassal state" seems to be a more apt description, therefore it makes sense to dissolve and become additional states of the United States.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but individual states have a lot of power... more than provinces do, I think.
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They have way less power. Way way less. There was a war fought over this and the US federal government won.
 
Colin Parkinson said:
To tell Trump that it would wreck our economy is the wrong thing to say to him. Better to say how it will damage their economy.
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Or share estimates of how much more gasoline could cost with Canada's input taxed coming in. Sure, they could adjust (especially as a net exporter), but ~40% is a big chunk to tax as an import.
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suffolkowner said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1863897249396248805

things getting serious

way too long that many industries have not been treated as strategic
perhaps Canada has some minerals to offer?
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We have a lot of minerals to offer. The trick is developing an economically viable deposit and bringing it to production. Unless we go crown corporation or heavy government subsidy/guarantee, the junior mining and extraction sector can be hellacious.
 
brihard said:
We have a lot of minerals to offer. The trick is developing an economically viable deposit and bringing it to production. Unless we go crown corporation or heavy government subsidy/guarantee, the junior mining and extraction sector can be hellacious.
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I think that has been exactly the problem with the rare earth minerals and other strategically valuable metals. Got sucked into the China game. Perhaps there should even be reserves maintained?
 
suffolkowner said:
I think that has been exactly the problem with the rare earth minerals and other strategically valuable metals. Got sucked into the China game. Perhaps there should even be reserves maintained?
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Yup. I took a bath on a few rare earths stocks when China yanked the rug out from under the market. They can and will let ventures develop significantly, and then flood the market so spot price plummets and those ventures fail. It makes it very hard to raise the necessary exploration and construction capital.
 
brihard said:
Yup. I took a bath on a few rare earths stocks when China yanked the rug out from under the market. They can and will let ventures develop significantly, and then flood the market so spot price plummets and those ventures fail. It makes it very hard to raise the necessary exploration and construction capital.
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Chairman Xi thanks you for your donation!
 
Meanwhile, the Canadian Peso is thundering in...


The Canadian dollar vs. Donald Trump: How low can the slumping loonie go?​

Here’s a breakdown of the factors working against our currency as the so-called Trump trade plays out

The Canadian dollar has been steadily declining over the past couple of months — a drop many economists and currency experts have linked to the rising expectations of a Donald Trump victory in the lead up to the U.S. election. The loonie is down just over four per cent against its U.S. counterpart since late September, and 1.5 per cent since Nov. 5. It slumped nearly a half per cent after Trump announced that, on day one of his presidency, he would impose a 25 per cent tariff on all goods entering the United States from Canada and Mexico.


financialpost.com

The Canadian dollar vs. Donald Trump: How low can the slumping loonie go?

With the Canadian dollar hovering around 71 cents U.S. and the inauguration still 2 months off, people are wondering how low it might go.
financialpost.com financialpost.com
 
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