The War in Ukraine

[PrairieFella]

Russian and North Korean forces stormed Sudzha, and street battles are underway. This occurred after Trump’s decision to cut off Ukraine’s access to American satellite and intelligence support, leaving Ukrainian forces in a disadvantaged position.The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian troops entered Sudzha from the side of Kurilovka, trapping around 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the city. In total, approximately 6,300 Ukrainian servicemen are encircled. Up to 10,000 Ukrainian Defense Forces personnel may be in the Sudzha district, with no communication with their command.According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian forces have advanced in several nearby areas, including Malaya Loknya, Basovka, and in the direction of Kazachya Loknya. The Ministry also confirmed the liberation of several settlements in the Kursk region. Sudzha is almost completely surrounded.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1898332931963142555

I've read it was stabilized and the Russians pushed out. Any corroboration either for or against that?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Hungary a bit upset over the latest UKR strike on RUS oil assets - especially those supplying Hungary ....

Ukraine targets Russian oil facilities in Moscow, Oryol oblasts in mass strike overnight, military claims

The operation "struck a number of Russian strategic objects, enabling armed aggression against Ukraine," the military said.

kyivindependent.com

Drone Strike on Russian Druzhba Pipeline an “Attack on Hungary’s Sovereignty," Says Hungarian FM

Hungary suspended Russian oil imports after a Ukrainian drone strike on the Druzhba pipeline measuring station, impacting energy security.

united24media.com

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1898915153330016296

 

[PrairieFella]

Dope. Based France.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I've read it was stabilized and the Russians pushed out. Any corroboration either for or against that?

Have a read - this site has top shelf analysis of the day to day grind of the war.

Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.

www.understandingwar.org

Russian forces are consolidating their gains in Kursk Oblast and likely preparing to attack Sudzha in the coming days. Geolocated footage published on March 10 indicates that Russian forces advanced in central Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha).[15] Elements of the Russian 44th Army Corps (AC) (Leningrad Military District [LMD]) and the 1434th "Akhmat-Chechnya" Regiment (subordinated to the Russian Ministry of Defense [MoD]) are reportedly attacking near Martynovka.[16] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Agronom and Kolmakov (both east of Sudzha), Mikhailovka (northeast of Sudzha), and Bogdanovka (north of Sudzha).[17] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also advanced in Mirny (east of Sudzha) and Kazachya Loknya (north of Sudzha).[18] ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims however. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are also attacking the outskirts of Sudzha, north of Sudzha near Ivashkovskiy, east of Sudzha near Dmitryukov, and south of Sudzha near Melovoi and Guyevo.[19] Elements of the Russian 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet), 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla), and the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) and up to two battalions of North Korean forces are reportedly attacking south of Sudzha near Kurilovka and Guyevo.[20]

Ukrainian forces are counterattacking along the international border. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 10 that Ukraine is reinforcing its force grouping in Kursk and Sumy oblasts with additional drone and electronic warfare (EW) units and that Ukrainian forces are successfully countering the threat of Russian encirclement in Kursk Oblast and along the international border.[21] Ukrainian State Border Service Spokesperson Andriy Demchenko stated that Ukrainian forces are working to repel Russian attacks in the direction of Novenke and Zhuravka (both northeast of Sumy City) and noted that Russian forces are trying to cut Ukraine's main ground line of communication (GLOC) along the Sumy City-Sudzha H-07 highway.[22] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking near Novenke, Zhuravka, and Basivka (also northeast of Sumy City).[23] Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade are operating in Zhuravka.[24] Demchenko stated that Russian forces do not currently have the capacity to conduct a significant cross border operation into other areas of northern Ukraine.[25]

 

[KevinB]

Well this should be interesting

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/spilna-zayava-za-pidsumkami-zustrichi-delegacij-ukrayini-ta-96553

 

[Kirkhill]

This comes under the head of be careful what you wish for.

Ukraine may keep fighting a guerrilla war, regardless of a ‘peace deal’

While most Ukrainians want the fighting to end, some regiments will reject any peace predicated on carving up their homeland

www.telegraph.co.uk

Most Ukrainians may simply resign themselves to their fate: loss of 20 per cent of their territory and nothing to stop Putin surging back to the offensive after regrouping his armed forces and rebuilding his economy. But many will not. At the front line I have met several hardened Ukrainian commanders who told me they would never give up the fight against Russia, no matter what the politicians decide. In other circumstances this talk could be dismissed as mere braggadocio.

But such men and their followers in Ukraine today may have far greater power than their predecessors in global resistance movements ever dreamt of. For one thing Ukraine is awash with vast amounts of weaponry of all sorts, much unaccounted for. Some is no doubt already stashed across the sweeping territories of Ukraine in arms dumps unknown to the military or civil authorities, against the day.

As we saw demonstrated last night in the largest ever drone attack on Moscow, Ukraine has become one of the largest producers of tactical and strategic drones in the world. Zelensky says his country produced 2.2 million UAVs last year alone. Used for surveillance and attack, those drones that have been liberated from the military supply chain could provide significant combat power to the men who decided to fight on. Likewise, unrestrained cyber attacks could cause havoc against strategically important installations in both occupied territory and on Russian land.

All this could add up to making a peace deal extremely hard to manage, whatever the Ukrainian government’s determination to adhere to it. Aside from guerrilla warfare against Russia, who knows what turmoil might unfold more widely inside Ukraine itself. After a peace deal hundreds of thousands of battle-hardened soldiers will return home – to what? A country ravaged by war, depopulated and economically broken. There will be no money and for many, no employment or any prospect of it. Violent crime is likely to run rampant. And those who believe their government has capitulated to Russia, selling them out after their years of sacrifices, may seek revenge on Kyiv.

The reason for the kerfuffle in our parliament about recognizing a Ukrainian was that he was an anti-establishment type of guy. Somebody offered him a gun to keep the Russians out and he took it. The Ukrainians have been doing that for a few centuries now.



The thing is that the resistance (not that woke version) would not be confined to Ukraine, or even the Donbas. I could easily see disgruntled Ukrainians with skills leaking into Mother Russia, Transnistria, Hungary and the Caucasus.

The land without borders, the borderlands, Ukrainia, would expand. Europe's, and Russia's, own version of the Hindu Kush - Northwest Frontier.

 

[Kirkhill]

Well this should be interesting

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/spilna-zayava-za-pidsumkami-zustrichi-delegacij-ukrayini-ta-96553

How long to 26?

Zelensky sent Trump list of all 'ceasefires' violated by Russia

"When General (Keith) Kellogg was in Kyiv, I handed him and the U.S. president a document with all ceasefires, along with specific dates, that Russia had violated," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

kyivindependent.com

Russia’s history of violating ceasefire agreements in Ukraine

As U.S. President Donald Trump continues to push for a swift end to the war in Ukraine, fears are mounting that Kyiv could be forced to accept a peace deal on unfavorable terms, and that will leave it vulnerable to future Russian attacks. The fears aren't unfounded. After Russia

kyivindependent.com

 

[KevinB]

How long to 26?

Zelensky sent Trump list of all 'ceasefires' violated by Russia

"When General (Keith) Kellogg was in Kyiv, I handed him and the U.S. president a document with all ceasefires, along with specific dates, that Russia had violated," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

kyivindependent.com

Russia’s history of violating ceasefire agreements in Ukraine

As U.S. President Donald Trump continues to push for a swift end to the war in Ukraine, fears are mounting that Kyiv could be forced to accept a peace deal on unfavorable terms, and that will leave it vulnerable to future Russian attacks. The fears aren't unfounded. After Russia

kyivindependent.com

I think Ukraine is counting on that -- Russia will violate it (again) and while Trump might not do much, it will prove to everyone else what is going on.

 

[Kirkhill]

Have a read - this site has top shelf analysis of the day to day grind of the war.

Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.

www.understandingwar.org

Russian forces are consolidating their gains in Kursk Oblast and likely preparing to attack Sudzha in the coming days. Geolocated footage published on March 10 indicates that Russian forces advanced in central Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha).[15] Elements of the Russian 44th Army Corps (AC) (Leningrad Military District [LMD]) and the 1434th "Akhmat-Chechnya" Regiment (subordinated to the Russian Ministry of Defense [MoD]) are reportedly attacking near Martynovka.[16] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Agronom and Kolmakov (both east of Sudzha), Mikhailovka (northeast of Sudzha), and Bogdanovka (north of Sudzha).[17] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also advanced in Mirny (east of Sudzha) and Kazachya Loknya (north of Sudzha).[18] ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims however. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are also attacking the outskirts of Sudzha, north of Sudzha near Ivashkovskiy, east of Sudzha near Dmitryukov, and south of Sudzha near Melovoi and Guyevo.[19] Elements of the Russian 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet), 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla), and the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) and up to two battalions of North Korean forces are reportedly attacking south of Sudzha near Kurilovka and Guyevo.[20]

Ukrainian forces are counterattacking along the international border. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 10 that Ukraine is reinforcing its force grouping in Kursk and Sumy oblasts with additional drone and electronic warfare (EW) units and that Ukrainian forces are successfully countering the threat of Russian encirclement in Kursk Oblast and along the international border.[21] Ukrainian State Border Service Spokesperson Andriy Demchenko stated that Ukrainian forces are working to repel Russian attacks in the direction of Novenke and Zhuravka (both northeast of Sumy City) and noted that Russian forces are trying to cut Ukraine's main ground line of communication (GLOC) along the Sumy City-Sudzha H-07 highway.[22] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking near Novenke, Zhuravka, and Basivka (also northeast of Sumy City).[23] Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade are operating in Zhuravka.[24] Demchenko stated that Russian forces do not currently have the capacity to conduct a significant cross border operation into other areas of northern Ukraine.[25]

Elements of the Russian 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet), 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla), and the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) and up to two battalions of North Korean forces

Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade

News Reports, Photos of Russia Using Horses, Donkeys on Front Lines in Ukraine War - Dressage-News

U.S. newspapers report that Russian forces are using horses and donkeys in the Ukraine war to carry supplies on front lines

dressage-news.com

Elements of "elite" units from widely dispersed sources cobbled together into a composite force that is starting to rely on horses. Situation well in hand.

 

[Kirkhill]

Trump’s ‘reverse Nixon’ charade insults our intelligence

The US president’s crude goal is to separate Russia from China – sacrificing Ukraine as a pawn

www.telegraph.co.uk

I don't think it is a charade. That would suggest that Trump isn't trying to separate Xi and Putin and I think he is. Effectively? Usefully? Those are other matters.

 

[HavokFour]

I think Ukraine is counting on that -- Russia will violate it (again) and while Trump might not do much, it will prove to everyone else what is going on.

Ukraine also benefits if Russia refuses to accept, because it proves they are not serious about peace and will also put the Trump admin in a very tight spot with all the blatant appeasement they've been doing.

 

[PrairieFella]

This comes under the head of be careful what you wish for.

Ukraine may keep fighting a guerrilla war, regardless of a ‘peace deal’

While most Ukrainians want the fighting to end, some regiments will reject any peace predicated on carving up their homeland

www.telegraph.co.uk

The reason for the kerfuffle in our parliament about recognizing a Ukrainian was that he was an anti-establishment type of guy. Somebody offered him a gun to keep the Russians out and he took it. The Ukrainians have been doing that for a few centuries now.

View attachment 91830

The thing is that the resistance (not that woke version) would not be confined to Ukraine, or even the Donbas. I could easily see disgruntled Ukrainians with skills leaking into Mother Russia, Transnistria, Hungary and the Caucasus.

The land without borders, the borderlands, Ukrainia, would expand. Europe's, and Russia's, own version of the Hindu Kush - Northwest Frontier.

I like to think my Ukrainian Cossack ancestors may have been captured in this painting. The Reply of the Zaporozhian Cossacks is such a cool painting with a neat history.

 

[KevinB]

Trump’s ‘reverse Nixon’ charade insults our intelligence

The US president’s crude goal is to separate Russia from China – sacrificing Ukraine as a pawn

www.telegraph.co.uk

I don't think it is a charade. That would suggest that Trump isn't trying to separate Xi and Putin and I think he is. Effectively? Usefully? Those are other matters.

Xi is currently busy trying to pivot towards Europe - in the last two weeks has sent film crews to Ukraine, and the Chinese have been supportive of Ukrainian territorial rights. While he can get Russian crap for pennies on the dollar, the Russians only have oil and gas for him, Europe is a massive market - and if Trump keeps sailing towards the end of the cliff - well China wants to be there to take up any open roles.

 

[PrairieFella]

Xi is currently busy trying to pivot towards Europe - in the last two weeks has sent film crews to Ukraine, and the Chinese have been supportive of Ukrainian territorial rights. While he can get Russian crap for pennies on the dollar, the Russians only have oil and gas for him, Europe is a massive market - and if Trump keeps sailing towards the end of the cliff - well China wants to be there to take up any open roles.

Anyone have Chinese pivot into the Western sphere of influence on their bingo card? Obviously opportunistic but still funny to think about.

 

[KevinB]

Anyone have Chinese pivot into the Western sphere of influence on their bingo card? Obviously opportunistic but still funny to think about.

Personally, I believe Xi has wanted that for some time - China needs to expand in a much larger economic manner, as well as desires the recognition on a Super Power, now with two former Super Powers, have proven they are only Stupid Powers he has a huge opening.

Militarily - invading Taiwan may reunite China, but is a dead end beyond that. It would result in the utter destruction of Taiwan (and any useful manufacturing facilities there) as well as a lot of loss of life from China (western missiles work very well) - and it gets them locked, as the Japanese, Aussies, Singaporeans, Indonesians are going to go on a massive armaments acquisition.
Sure they can build more artificial islands - but they can't connect to Australia or Singapore like that - and eventually they would become like North Korean alone, and unable to do much globally at all.

 

[PrairieFella]

Personally, I believe Xi has wanted that for some time - China needs to expand in a much larger economic manner, as well as desires the recognition on a Super Power, now with two former Super Powers, have proven they are only Stupid Powers he has a huge opening.

Militarily - invading Taiwan may reunite China, but is a dead end beyond that. It would result in the utter destruction of Taiwan (and any useful manufacturing facilities there) as well as a lot of loss of life from China (western missiles work very well) - and it gets them locked, as the Japanese, Aussies, Singaporeans, Indonesians are going to go on a massive armaments acquisition.
Sure they can build more artificial islands - but they can't connect to Australia or Singapore like that - and eventually they would become like North Korean alone, and unable to do much globally at all.

Hopefully this can put a lid on boiling tensions with China, bringing the climate back to the days of Hu Jintao or Deng Xiaoping. I'll make it abundantly clear I find the Chinese government vile and reprehensible but I really do hope we can find a way for China to liberalize and align with us. The culture, people and history of China are wonderful but they are held hostage by tyrants in the Zhongnanhai.

 

[QV]

Headway:

Ukraine accepts deal, says Rubio: 'We'll take this to the Russians'

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukraine has accepted the U.S. 30-day ceasefire proposal and now Washington will take it to Russia which it will 'hopefully' accept before more negotiations can begin.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Anyone have Chinese pivot into the Western sphere of influence on their bingo card? Obviously opportunistic but still funny to think about.

Liberal Party of Canada. Jean Chretien. Justin Trudeau. Mark Carney. .... and the Green Revolution and Just Transition.

 

[Kirkhill]

Personally, I believe Xi has wanted that for some time - China needs to expand in a much larger economic manner, as well as desires the recognition on a Super Power, now with two former Super Powers, have proven they are only Stupid Powers he has a huge opening.

Militarily - invading Taiwan may reunite China, but is a dead end beyond that. It would result in the utter destruction of Taiwan (and any useful manufacturing facilities there) as well as a lot of loss of life from China (western missiles work very well) - and it gets them locked, as the Japanese, Aussies, Singaporeans, Indonesians are going to go on a massive armaments acquisition.
Sure they can build more artificial islands - but they can't connect to Australia or Singapore like that - and eventually they would become like North Korean alone, and unable to do much globally at all.

Personally I think the notion of Taiwan as a distraction while leaking into Siberia is a more likely course of action.