The War in Ukraine

[KevinB]

My take away. Any round of any velocity can be guided precisely to its target by bolting on a guidance kit with a price point of about $20,000.

If 80% of the rounds are diverted/fail 20% of them will succeed. The price per kill - $100,000. Comparable to the price of a single Javelin but with longer range.

You missing some key aspects in that recipe.

 

[KevinB]

I disagree, We have many smaller companies that provide critical specialized services to the larger defense companies. Although the small companies eventually get bought up. It still proves that we have the capability to do so.

As for Irving/ Seaspan crapping the bed on manufacturing a viably priced vessel. That has more to do with all the political aspects of financial and career kickbacks then actual process.
The government needs to buy out the ship yards and lease them to the companies. Then give the contract out to the best bidder. Higher those who want a job. Not those with political connections.

That is what we do down here with Lake City - the bid to run the ammo plant is put out every 5 years, and various companies bid on it.
It is a fairly decent model, and could be used on a number of other key defense needs.

Canada cannot be competitive if we keep allowing a company such as Irving to walk all over us. The cost of building the ships is out to lunch. The cost of maintaining them similar.
Look at the fiasco on the west coast with the Frigate upgrades for New Zealand, what should have been a good long term contract turned into a fiasco of stupidity.
To many Canadian companies have not been responsible because they are the only major players in a field. So the government both provincial and federal bail them out. So they do not need to be competitive, only need to threaten to close up shop and loose jobs. Then government comes with the purse strings open.

That sort of socialism is a cancer to competitiveness -

You would be surprised how many skilled trades people there are across the country. Lots of smaller specialized shops building specific parts. If they all grouped together it would be pretty significant.

Canada doesn't want them to, and put a lot of barriers in the way especially if those entities may be related to defense manufacturing. It's like the GoC enjoys seeing Canadian companies swallowed by US Defense giants...

The real issue we are going to have in the next 10-20 years are all those hands on skilled people are going to be retired or passed on. That will leave a gap like we have not seen in our life times.

Less than 20 IMHO, honestly I think 5-10 is more likely, and it's going to hurt a lot of industries.

Lets not forget CNC has allowed us to machine and build more with less people.
I have seen a few shops transition an entire floor of machinists and go with cnc machines. (most were retiring and or they found other jobs for their people) but the transition has been on going for many years.
Don't kid ourselves there are still lots of skilled Trades people across Canada working in manufacturing.

110%

 

[Kirkhill]

You missing some key aspects in that recipe.

How long before someone finds the missing bits and comes up with the least cost formulation?

The foundries don't exist to make the steel.
The coal necessary is being put beyond ready use.
Boeing struggles to put planes in the air and keep them there.
Quality Assurance and Inspection costs are delaying many projects everywhere.
Skills fade in all sorts of trades, military and civil, is a real thing.
Stuff people used to know is now only in books.

Military kit is old and becoming harder to maintain.
People are being pushed beyond their limits.
It becomes harder to find and keep them.

And yet people still feel the need to compete.
And kill.

Once upon a time this would have been an ABCA exercise. Now it is an AUKUS exercise.

AUKUS army chiefs' lessons from Ukraine: 'Explosion' in autonomy, value of long-range fires - Breaking Defense

The US Army chief, Gen. Randy George, offered an intriguing possible win for AUKUS Pillar 2: "a common controller" for unmanned systems, allowing the three allies to exchange systems.

breakingdefense.com

From a previous post:

In addition to that, he said he’s been talking to Congress about the Army having more flexibility to buy things because electronic warfare and drone software often needs to be updated every “three weeks or three months” and move from research and development more quickly.

“That’s been very hard for us to do right now, for example, with a continuing resolution as far as moving things around,” he added.

Moore's Law has caught up with the military bureaucracy.
And Herb Stein wins.

....

Ukraine’s Flying Claymore Mines Cut Down Russian Infantry

FPVs normally have RPG warheads which explode on impact, but a new type is detonated mid-air to produce a spray of lethal anti-personnel shrapnel.

www.forbes.com

...

The Drone has just replaced the French 75, its crew, its battery, the wagon train and the supply chain that delivered it and the Forward Observers.
The Drone has just replaced the Mitchell B25, its crew, its squadron, the airfield it flew from and the supply chain that delivered it and the Bombardiers at risk with the crew.

There are a lot of opportunity costs to be exploited by being able to launch self-powered flying machines of variable weights and ranges from the back of a truck and being able to direct them to a specific target from a safe distance or have them find their own targets.

And a people struggling for survival are highly motivated to find those opportunities.

Change is.

 

[Kirkhill]

I disagree, We have many smaller companies that provide critical specialized services to the larger defense companies. Although the small companies eventually get bought up. It still proves that we have the capability to do so.

As for Irving/ Seaspan crapping the bed on manufacturing a viably priced vessel. That has more to do with all the political aspects of financial and career kickbacks then actual process.
The government needs to buy out the ship yards and lease them to the companies. Then give the contract out to the best bidder. Higher those who want a job. Not those with political connections.

Canada cannot be competitive if we keep allowing a company such as Irving to walk all over us. The cost of building the ships is out to lunch. The cost of maintaining them similar.
Look at the fiasco on the west coast with the Frigate upgrades for New Zealand, what should have been a good long term contract turned into a fiasco of stupidity.
To many Canadian companies have not been responsible because they are the only major players in a field. So the government both provincial and federal bail them out. So they do not need to be competitive, only need to threaten to close up shop and loose jobs. Then government comes with the purse strings open.

You would be surprised how many skilled trades people there are across the country. Lots of smaller specialized shops building specific parts. If they all grouped together it would be pretty significant.
The real issue we are going to have in the next 10-20 years are all those hands on skilled people are going to be retired or passed on. That will leave a gap like we have not seen in our life times.

Lets not forget CNC has allowed us to machine and build more with less people.
I have seen a few shops transition an entire floor of machinists and go with cnc machines. (most were retiring and or they found other jobs for their people) but the transition has been on going for many years.
Don't kid ourselves there are still lots of skilled Trades people across Canada working in manufacturing.

See my response to Kevinb above.

In a world where new solutions are being found to new problems every three weeks the decade it would take to build a 19th century furnace is insupportable.

There are somethings that are just gone and they are not coming back. They are not coming back because somebody, out of desperation, is finding the other way of doing things. Specifically they are finding new ways to kill each other. Our oldest sport.

Your last paragraph sums things up correctly though. All of those trades people, with all their CNC lathes, Water cutting tables and 3D printers will find new ways to get the job done.

 

[Kirkhill]

5-Axis

Flow Waterjet | Waterjet Cutting Technology

www.flowwaterjet.com

Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) Goes to War | Defense Media Network

Article about APKWS II guided rockets headed to combat.

www.defensemedianetwork.com

M1156 Precision Guidance Kit - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

A Brief Introduction to Millimeter Wave Radar Sensing

We’ve found that a lot of innovators are considering including millimeter wave radar in their solutions, but some are not familiar with the sensing capabilities of radar when compared with vision, lidar, or ultrasonics. I want to review some characteristics of radar vs.

www.linkedin.com

And cheap cell phones for comms, observation, navigation and control.

 

[Kirkhill]

Historical reference - Total War 3500 BC - Battle of Hamoukar.

Evidence of battle at Hamoukar points to early urban development

What do you do if you are under siege and don't have steel, or iron, or bronze, or copper, or flint, or even good pebbles?

Have the wife bake up some mud pellets for your sling.

Hamoukar’s defenders resisted the attack using all facilities and materials available, a fact highlighted by discoveries in a shallow pit in the floor of one of the rooms. Ordinarily, this pit, into which a water jar has been buried to its rim, would have been used for soaking discarded clay seals for recycling into fresh clay, but two-dozen sling bullets found neatly lined up along its edge indicated that the pit also had been used to make sling bullets during the city’s final hours.

 

[KevinB]

See my response to Kevinb above.

In a world where new solutions are being found to new problems every three weeks the decade it would take to build a 19th century furnace is insupportable.

There are somethings that are just gone and they are not coming back. They are not coming back because somebody, out of desperation, is finding the other way of doing things. Specifically they are finding new ways to kill each other. Our oldest sport.

Your last paragraph sums things up correctly though. All of those trades people, with all their CNC lathes, Water cutting tables and 3D printers will find new ways to get the job done.

Part of the issue is raw materials.
3D Print/Additive Manufacturing still needs material.

Cellular phones require a network - which requires infrastructure.

 

[FSTO]

Another outstanding interview by Paul Wells. I think Mr. Thorsell is wrong on many fronts but he is right that we don't have vigorous debate in the public commons anymore. Its agree or socially die.

Ukraine: Mr. Thorsell dissents

A talk about war, futility and how to disagree

substack.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Part of the issue is raw materials.
3D Print/Additive Manufacturing still needs material.

Work with the materials available. You can work wonders, with paper, plastic and clay.

Cellular phones require a network - which requires infrastructure.

But the network doesn't need to be permanent. It can be transient. It can be fleeting. Or the network can be permanent but the nodes can be transient.



And if you are looking for propellants, the Anarchist's Cookbook is a good starting point for deflagrating and detonating powders.

And there are lots of factories with dry-mix capabilities.

 

[suffolkowner]

Part of the issue is raw materials.
3D Print/Additive Manufacturing still needs material.

Cellular phones require a network - which requires infrastructure.

in all this we have a disconnect between the comparative advantage/free trade model and the interests of the nation state against the Soviet Union this was less of an issue for the West as we were not so far along our path and were not interconnected to the same way we are now

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Another outstanding interview by Paul Wells. I think Mr. Thorsell is wrong on many fronts but he is right that we don't have vigorous debate in the public commons anymore. Its agree or socially die.

Ukraine: Mr. Thorsell dissents

A talk about war, futility and how to disagree

substack.com

What's the point of debating anything? You just get called all sorts of names and end up on the receiving end of slander.

And then when things come to pass and it turns out some things you said weren't actually that crazy and came true.... well no acknowledgment is given. Dissent against the narrative and you get labelled an enemy.

Better to just say nothing these days and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Kirkhill]

Part of the issue is raw materials.
3D Print/Additive Manufacturing still needs material.

Cellular phones require a network - which requires infrastructure.

WRT cellphones

It was less the ability to connect to the existing infrastructure, or even the ability to recreate or maintain that infrastructure that interests me than it is the demonstrated ability to produce hundreds of millions of those devices at ridiculously low prices.

A cell phone can see (EO/IR sensors extending into the mmW ranges) - Observe.
It can remember. It can compare. - Orient
It can calculate. - Decide
It can activate. - Act

All for the low, low price of

Amazon.ca : cheap cell phones

Elon Musk's Star Link system with its low earth orbit swarm, its small receivers, its recoverable large rockets, its autonomous ships for launch and recovery...

Forget his electric cars.

It is what he has demonstrated with the Star Link model that I think is worth emulating. Swap out the satellites for swarms of fixed wing gliders and powered micro-UAVs (fixed wing to give hang time minimizing energy and increasing endurance). Etc.

Lots of bright people out there with lots of great ideas and great tools available to them that have skills.

in all this we have a disconnect between the comparative advantage/free trade model and the interests of the nation state against the Soviet Union this was less of an issue for the West as we were not so far along our path and were not interconnected to the same way we are now

It is never too late to disconnect, if we want to.

We are not always better together.

 

[Kirkhill]

What's the point of debating anything? You just get called all sorts of names and end up on the receiving end of slander.

And then when things come to pass and it turns out some things you said weren't actually that crazy and came true.... well no acknowledgment is given. Dissent against the narrative and you get labelled an enemy.

Better to just say nothing these days and let the chips fall where they may.

Wimp! Giving up that easily?

Legitimate questions.

Do they still teach debating at school these days? Do they still have debating societies?
Do they still teach kids how to argue for fun and profit and insult each other civilly?
Do they still teach kids to be able to argue any issue from any side assigned?

 

[Czech_pivo]

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5-Axis

Flow Waterjet | Waterjet Cutting Technology

www.flowwaterjet.com

View attachment 83704View attachment 83705View attachment 83706

Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) Goes to War | Defense Media Network

Article about APKWS II guided rockets headed to combat.

www.defensemedianetwork.com

M1156 Precision Guidance Kit - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

A Brief Introduction to Millimeter Wave Radar Sensing

We’ve found that a lot of innovators are considering including millimeter wave radar in their solutions, but some are not familiar with the sensing capabilities of radar when compared with vision, lidar, or ultrasonics. I want to review some characteristics of radar vs.

www.linkedin.com

View attachment 83707
And cheap cell phones for comms, observation, navigation and control.

I imagine Hamas has been mining these types of sites for years.

 

[Kirkhill]

One of those bright sparks doing the other thing - funny accent though.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Wimp! Giving up that easily?

Legitimate questions.

Do they still teach debating at school these days? Do they still have debating societies?
Do they still teach kids how to argue for fun and profit and insult each other civilly?
Do they still teach kids to be able to argue any issue from any side assigned?

Not from what I've seen with my 2 kids - one now in 1st year at Queens in Chemistry and the other in grade 11 - the ability/thought of 'picking a side' and arguing for or against that 'side' is completely foreign to them. I live in Burlington, Halton Region, in Ontario and the school boards are so utterly afraid of offending anyone that nothing like 'having a debate' comes close to occurring in the schools.

Remember, Halton District School Board is the place of this - halton district school board transgender teacher - Google Search
and its complete and utter inability to draw up an acceptable - 'teachers/employees dress code'.

It also the place where this is now occurring - Historic but 'offensive' name will be scrubbed from Oakville school - inHalton | Local Online News
Those of you who were once crew members on HMCS Iroquois would find this of interest.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Look at the fiasco on the west coast with the Frigate upgrades for New Zealand, what should have been a good long term contract turned into a fiasco of stupidity.

Ok I have not heard any major criticisms of that project before and generally the West Coast yards have a good rep for repair and upgrade work internationally. Can you expand upon this statement?

 

[Kirkhill]

It also the place where this is now occurring - Historic but 'offensive' name will be scrubbed from Oakville school - inHalton | Local Online News
Those of you who were once crew members on HMCS Iroquois would find this of interest.

Fight back. Enlist some Algonkian speakers (Cree, Ojibwa, Anishinaabe, MicMac, Blackfoot). Most of the names by which we know the tribes were given to them by their neighbours, often their enemies.

Opinion 1

Jesuit priest and missionary Pierre François Xavier de Charlevoix wrote in 1744:

The name Iroquois is purely French, and is formed from the [Iroquoian-language] term Hiro or Hero, which means I have said—with which these Indians close all their addresses, as the Latins did of old with their dixi—and of Koué, which is a cry sometimes of sadness, when it is prolonged, and sometimes of joy, when it is pronounced shorter.[20]

Opinion 2

In 1883, Horatio Hale wrote that Charlevoix's etymology was dubious, and that "no other nation or tribe of which we have any knowledge has ever borne a name composed in this whimsical fashion".[20] Hale suggested instead that the term came from Huron, and was cognate with the Mohawk ierokwa- "they who smoke", or Cayuga iakwai- "a bear". In 1888, J.N.B. Hewitt expressed doubts that either of those words exist in the respective languages. He preferred the etymology from Montagnais irin "true, real" and ako "snake", plus the French -ois suffix. Later he revised this to Algonquin Iriⁿakhoiw as the origin.[20][21]

Opinion 3

A more modern etymology was advocated by Gordon M. Day in 1968, elaborating upon Charles Arnaud from 1880. Arnaud had claimed that the word came from Montagnais irnokué, meaning "terrible man", via the reduced form irokue. Day proposed a hypothetical Montagnais phrase irno kwédač, meaning "a man, an Iroquois", as the origin of this term. For the first element irno, Day cites cognates from other attested Montagnais dialects: irinou, iriniȣ, and ilnu; and for the second element kwédač, he suggests a relation to kouetakiou, kȣetat-chiȣin, and goéṭètjg – names used by neighboring Algonquian tribes to refer to the Iroquois, Huron, and Laurentian peoples.[20]

Opinion 4

The Gale Encyclopedia of Multicultural America attests the origin of Iroquois to "Iroqu", Algonquian for "rattlesnake".[22] The French encountered the Algonquian-speaking tribes first, and would have learned the Algonquian names for their Iroquois competitors.

There is also good solid archaeological and cultural evidence that the Iroquois, with their Mexican maize and their Fortified Villages were recent arrivals into the St Lawrence Valley displacing the Algonkian speakers that lived off the Eastern Woodlands ecosystem of deer, fish, nuts, berries and roots.

Eastern Agricultural Complex - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ask an Ojibwe Cree if the Iroquois Ridge name is appropriate.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Fight back. Enlist some Algonkian speakers (Cree, Ojibwa, Anishinaabe, MicMac, Blackfoot). Most of the names by which we know the tribes were given to them by their neighbours, often their enemies.

Opinion 1



Opinion 2



Opinion 3



Opinion 4



There is also good solid archaeological and cultural evidence that the Iroquois, with their Mexican maize and their Fortified Villages were recent arrivals into the St Lawrence Valley displacing the Algonkian speakers that lived off the Eastern Woodlands ecosystem of deer, fish, nuts, berries and roots.

Eastern Agricultural Complex - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ask an Ojibwe Cree if the Iroquois Ridge name is appropriate.

“The HDSB has received a formal request from a community member to consider renaming Iroquois Ridge High School at 1123 Glenashton Drive in Oakville, with the following rationale: “Iroquois” is a colonial settler term for the Haudenesaunee and is seen as a derogatory term and is not respectful of Indigenous peoples,” the report states

It's ALL because one single person came forward - 1 person - another perfect example of the tail wagging the dog.

Instead of the school board going out to those that pay taxes into the public school board and ask them if they would like the name to change or remain the same - they are going forward because of 1 person - 1, single person, making this compliant.

 

[Spencer100]

What's the point of debating anything? You just get called all sorts of names and end up on the receiving end of slander.

And then when things come to pass and it turns out some things you said weren't actually that crazy and came true.... well no acknowledgment is given. Dissent against the narrative and you get labelled an enemy.

Better to just say nothing these days and let the chips fall where they may.

Rage rage against of the dying of the light! Do not go quietly.......

I sit up many a night on the weekend and ponder that we are in the twilight of the west and civilization in general. I know we will lose but don't give up. Its how we fought that that will define us.

Plus you can read Gibbons etc. and understand how others have thought.