The War in Ukraine

[Czech_pivo]

Which is why we all should understand that we are at war with Putin’s Russia like it or not.

Oh, I completely understand it. Its plainly evident to me, to others, not so much.

 

[MilEME09]

Which is why we all should understand that we are at war with Putin’s Russia like it or not.

i'd argue we have been for over a decade via info ops, cyber attacks, etc. The west continues to play defensively though, Ukraine is forcing us to think offensively. Strongly worded letters is no longer a deterrent

 

[Kirkhill]

Ukraine military official: half of all North Korean shells are duds

North Korean artillery shells cannot be accurately aimed, South Korean military expert says.

www.rfa.org

Related?

North Korea stops sending shells to Russia, Seoul claims​

Satellite photos seem to confirm no more arms have left since Kim Jong-un sent three million to Vladimir Putin

James Kilner2 March 2024 • 6:26pm

Shipments of North Korean artillery shells to Russia that have given the Kremlin an edge on battlefields in Ukraine may have stopped, South Korean analysts believe.

Satellite photos show that the four Russian container ships used to pick up suspected arms supplies have not docked in North Korea since Feb 12.

“It is unclear if this is due to production problems at North Korea’s weapons factories or another issue,” said NK Pro, which researches North Korea and has studied the satellite photos. “North Korea does not appear to have delivered containers to the export pier during that time.”

The four Russian container ships have been named: the Lady R, the Angara, the Maia-1 and the Maria. NK Pro said that they had previously made 32 trips to North Korea since August when North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un agreed to arm Vladimir Putin in exchange for space technology.

It is believed that North Korea has sent up to three million shells to Russia, helping to give it a major advantage over Ukrainian forces who have complained of a lack of supplies from their Western allies.

3,000,000 shells
20,000 per day
150 days

Deliveries made since August.

Aug/Sep/Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb = 7 months
210 days

Russian supplies of N Korean shells are likely to be "under stress".

The Russians signed this deal when there was evidence of the Russians employing rusted rounds from WW2.
Has Russia picked up the pace on the domestic manufacture of shells?

 

[Retired AF Guy]

A video from Ukrainian GUR that appears to show multipole hits on the Russian patrol boat.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Most Ukrainians have only begun hating Russians over the last 10yrs, Poles have been doing it for the last 500. Its part of who they are.

Ukrainian hatred for Russians goes back a lot further than 10 years. Remember the Russian instigated Holodomor (Famine) in the early 1930's that killed millions of Ukrainians.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Ukrainian hatred for Russians goes back a lot further than 10 years. Remember the Russian instigated Holodomor (Famine) in the early 1930's that killed millions of Ukrainians.

Keep cycling back... 1795 Ukraine was conquered by Russian Empire, 1863 wirh the Valuev Circular, and 1876 with the Ems Ukaz. Not to mention the progroms against Ukrainian Jews by ...you guessed it... Russia.

Apart from the "unity" shown by Moscow to Kyiv in the old USSR days... Russia has always hated Ukraine, and thus, Ukrainians hate Russians.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Wasn't sure if it should go here or in the US thread. More topical here I think. I can't speak to the veracity of the article.

CIA Built "12 Secret Spy Bases" In Ukraine & Waged Shadow War For Last Decade, Bombshell NYT Report Confirms​

CIA Built "12 Secret Spy Bases" In Ukraine & Waged Shadow War For Last Decade, Bombshell NYT Report Confirms | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

NYT: CIA network of bases in Ukraine at risk if US does not pass aid

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has supported a network of a dozen bases in Ukraine that are "increasingly at risk" if Republicans continue to block $61 billion in funding for Kyiv, the New York Times (NYT) reported on Feb. 25.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Skysix]

i'd argue we have been for over a decade via info ops, cyber attacks, etc. The west continues to play defensively though, Ukraine is forcing us to think offensively. Strongly worded letters is no longer a deterrent

The talk of Russia attacking NATO is premised on an understanding of the definition of War (ie kinetic actions) that differs greatly from Russia's. They have been repeatedly saying they are already at war with NATO through multiple channels (Putin, other officials, propagandists and authorised 'news and opinion' personalities).

So when that understanding finally sinks in - that Russia is already attacking NATO and has people in NATO territories conducting information operations and influencing useful idiots and buying politicians and 'thought leaders' (not to mention outright spying and seeding the media space with discontent and deviceivness with support to extremists on both sides of controversial opinions), maybe they will study Gerasimov's actual skillset (hybrid war planning) and successes and start to do things to fight back.

I look at Finland's generation long schooling in critical thinking and information analysis to counter Russian narratives and false facts etc. We need to harden and bring back together our populations. Pretty much all nations sharing a border with Russia (Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland) are already doing this (and spending over 2% on defense)

Russia is winning the non kinetic war with NATO so far. Redefining the narratives to Russian framing and intimidating many leaders (Scholtz cough cough Orban) while we get spun up on PC positions and seem unable to play the 'signals' game (not Macron and Kalles though)

 

[brihard]

Wasn't sure if it should go here or in the US thread. More topical here I think. I can't speak to the veracity of the article.

CIA Built "12 Secret Spy Bases" In Ukraine & Waged Shadow War For Last Decade, Bombshell NYT Report Confirms​

CIA Built "12 Secret Spy Bases" In Ukraine & Waged Shadow War For Last Decade, Bombshell NYT Report Confirms | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

NYT: CIA network of bases in Ukraine at risk if US does not pass aid

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has supported a network of a dozen bases in Ukraine that are "increasingly at risk" if Republicans continue to block $61 billion in funding for Kyiv, the New York Times (NYT) reported on Feb. 25.

news.yahoo.com

Makes sense. Russia started its invasion of Ukraine ten years ago, so I’d bloody hope the CIA was all over the area in the years that followed. Although some of the specific intelligence support described sounds like it could just as easily be NSA collection and analysis rather than CIA. Anyway- if the U.S. intelligence community weren’t heavily into Ukraine after 2014, they wouldn’t have been doing their jobs.

 

[MilEME09]

Looks like the Russians bagged a ACSV, looks like a mine strike.

 

[TacticalTea]

Wasn't sure if it should go here or in the US thread. More topical here I think. I can't speak to the veracity of the article.

CIA Built "12 Secret Spy Bases" In Ukraine & Waged Shadow War For Last Decade, Bombshell NYT Report Confirms​

CIA Built "12 Secret Spy Bases" In Ukraine & Waged Shadow War For Last Decade, Bombshell NYT Report Confirms | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

NYT: CIA network of bases in Ukraine at risk if US does not pass aid

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has supported a network of a dozen bases in Ukraine that are "increasingly at risk" if Republicans continue to block $61 billion in funding for Kyiv, the New York Times (NYT) reported on Feb. 25.

news.yahoo.com

"CIA operates in country of interest" isn't exactly frontpage news.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Something something messages:

Victoria Nuland, third-highest ranking US diplomat and critic of Russia's war in Ukraine, retiring

The third-highest ranking U.S. diplomat and frequent target of criticism for her hawkish views on Russia and its actions in Ukraine will be leaving her post.

apnews.com

Nuland will be replaced temporarily as under secretary by another career diplomat, John Bass, a former ambassador to Afghanistan who oversaw the U.S. withdrawal from the country. He is currently the undersecretary of state for management.

 

[Kirkhill]

Bovington's contribution to the war effort...

The Dorset tank museum helping Ukraine win the war​

Our writer looks at the role a rural attraction is playing in the modern-day fight against Russian president Vladimir Putin

Gwyneth Rees5 March 2024 • 7:02pm

...Yet what is perhaps less well-known is the role this rural attraction is playing in the modern-day fight against Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Late last year, it dug out long-forgotten manuals, diagrams and documents from its extensive archive on how to repair damaged Soviet-era tanks currently used in Ukraine.

It has since passed this specific information to a leading UK defence company, enabling it to make repairs on the tanks’ tracks – or solid chain caterpillar treads – that are needed in trench warfare. These new tracks are now out in Ukraine, helping the army keep the Russians at bay in what is now a long, brutal war of attrition.

“When we were asked to help we immediately went and looked for anything that might be of assistance,” says David Willey, curator of the museum.

“UK defence companies are very keen to assist but in some cases the people from the Cold War era are no longer around and knowledge has been lost.

“Details such as the angles, pitch and tension required for the new tracks were sought and our archive was able to provide them with old manuals and blueprints for the tanks.

“We also found examples of the actual items required such as T-72 tracks and pins from one of the vehicles in the collection. The new parts could then be made accurately in the UK.”

... much of the country’s fleet is composed of ageing tanks from the 1960s and 1970s, when Ukraine was still part of the USSR.
These include the MT-LB, a Soviet multi-purpose, fully amphibious, tracked armoured fighting vehicle in use since the 1970s, the BMP-1, the first mass-produced infantry fighting vehicle of the era, and the T-72, the main Soviet battle tank.

But in recent years, many of these have had their tracks damaged by mines, with Ukraine unable to fix them due to lack of manpower.

Last year, Cook Defence Systems, based in Stanhope, County Durham, was commissioned by the UK and UK-administered International Fund for Ukraine to supply spares for up to 500 of these Ukrainian armoured vehicles.

In order to build new tracks, the company had to use reverse-engineering to deconstruct the design and understand how they were built. Engineers then got in touch with the Tank Museum, asking if it had any diagrams and instructions of how the treads were made in its archive.
Willey adds: “We have hundreds of thousands of reference documents, diagrams and drawings. Lots of material is squirrelled away, but it didn’t take us too long to find what we were asked for.

...

“We have had limited reference material and we are doing all this with an urgency unknown in peacetime. We know there are Ukrainian soldiers on the front line whose lives depend on what we do.”

... every tank is of value – no matter how old it is. “Some of Ukraine’s tanks were made in the 1950s, but if they still have an engine and a gun, then they are still an effective threat,” he says.

“They may not be at the top end but Ukraine wants every one it can get. There is a requirement to keep as much hardware as they can on the battlefield.”

The Dorset tank museum helping Ukraine win the war

Our writer looks at the role a rural attraction is playing in the modern-day fight against Russian president Vladimir Putin

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Furniture]

Something something messages:

Victoria Nuland, third-highest ranking US diplomat and critic of Russia's war in Ukraine, retiring

The third-highest ranking U.S. diplomat and frequent target of criticism for her hawkish views on Russia and its actions in Ukraine will be leaving her post.

apnews.com

Since Afghanistan went so well, I can't imagine how things could go wrong with Ukraine.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Some news from other sources:

Gen. Pacek: Rosja straszy. Nic nie wskazuje, by zmieniły się zasady użycia broni jądrowej

W obliczu trwającej rosyjskiej ofensywy na Ukrainie świat stoi przed możliwością eskalacji konfliktu. Władimir Putin twierdzi, że Zachód już przegrał, a według doniesień "Financial Times" Rosja obniżyła próg użycia broni jądrowej. "Rosja straszy. Nic nie wskazuje na to, aby zmieniły się zasady...

www.rmf24.pl

Since Afghanistan went so well, I can't imagine how things could go wrong with Ukraine.

The Ukrainians are running low on everything. People, weapons, ammunition. They are bleeding out and Russia will continue to bleed them out until they break.

I saw this report today and I can't even believe they let CNN film it:

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Since Afghanistan went so well, I can't imagine how things could go wrong with Ukraine.

That's the point... Nuland, the driving force behind US Policy in Ukraine, is out. The clean up crew.... is in.

 

[Furniture]

Some news from other sources:

Gen. Pacek: Rosja straszy. Nic nie wskazuje, by zmieniły się zasady użycia broni jądrowej

W obliczu trwającej rosyjskiej ofensywy na Ukrainie świat stoi przed możliwością eskalacji konfliktu. Władimir Putin twierdzi, że Zachód już przegrał, a według doniesień "Financial Times" Rosja obniżyła próg użycia broni jądrowej. "Rosja straszy. Nic nie wskazuje na to, aby zmieniły się zasady...

www.rmf24.pl

The Ukrainians are running low on everything. People, weapons, ammunition. They are bleeding out and Russia will continue to bleed them out until they break.

I saw this report today and I can't even believe they let CNN film it:

Just like with Afghanistan, Western voters don't care... They're at the mall, on their phones, or on the couch engrossed in the latest streaming show. Our "leaders" have decided it's better for their re-election bids to cater to the fat and happy masses rather than actually lead.

It will be the downfall of Western civilization, one Ukraine or Afghanistan at a time. By the time the fat and happy voters realize things are going poorly, the barbarians will be in their kitchen restocking for the next push...

 

[MilEME09]

Some news from other sources:

Gen. Pacek: Rosja straszy. Nic nie wskazuje, by zmieniły się zasady użycia broni jądrowej

W obliczu trwającej rosyjskiej ofensywy na Ukrainie świat stoi przed możliwością eskalacji konfliktu. Władimir Putin twierdzi, że Zachód już przegrał, a według doniesień "Financial Times" Rosja obniżyła próg użycia broni jądrowej. "Rosja straszy. Nic nie wskazuje na to, aby zmieniły się zasady...

www.rmf24.pl

The Ukrainians are running low on everything. People, weapons, ammunition. They are bleeding out and Russia will continue to bleed them out until they break.

I saw this report today and I can't even believe they let CNN film it:

The problem with the people issue is Zelensky's part refuses to pass the mobilization law. They are more worried about the optics and politics then national survival. They have made some 1300 amendments in the Rada to the bill. Doesn't matter how much ammo we get them, or money, they need troops and lowering the draft from 27 to 25 would unlock about 1.4 million potential man power or more according to a few people I'm country I talk to.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Just like with Afghanistan, Western voters don't care... They're at the mall, on their phones, or on the couch engrossed in the latest streaming show. Our "leaders" have decided it's better for their re-election bids to cater to the fat and happy masses rather than actually lead.

It will be the downfall of Western civilization, one Ukraine or Afghanistan at a time. By the time the fat and happy voters realize things are going poorly, the barbarians will be in their kitchen restocking for the next push...

Don't worry, we've successfully convinced ourselves that Russians are simply drunks who fight with shovels and steal washing machines for computer chips.... they've run out of missiles at least four dozen times since February 2022.

Meanwhile in Russia.....

It's Droneapolooza:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765076244130058691

They must have stolen a lot of washing machines!!!

 

[KevinB]

Don't worry, we've successfully convinced ourselves that Russians are simply drunks who fight with shovels and steal washing machines for computer chips.... they've run out of missiles at least four dozen times since February 2022.

Meanwhile in Russia.....

It's Droneapolooza:

View attachment 83576

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765076244130058691

They must have stolen a lot of washing machines!!!

That video has also been debunked as completely faked in a mirror house.

You’re aren’t wrong in general premise but that’s a terrible example.