The War in Ukraine

[The Bread Guy]

West Germany was invited to NATO, despite West Germany claiming all of Germany as its territory…

There is a precedent for that, and another ‘Cold War’.

True, but there was more deeply-held consensus among the invitees re: how "bad" the bad guys of the day in question were. Mind you, it IS a good point for the lawyers/diplomats to bring up.

... The remaining Hezbollah forces need to support Syria, as they will lose access to Iranian arms if Syria falls.

Kinda ironic (and sweet) Hezbollah & Co. getting kicked at both ends simultaneously.

Greece and Turkey have also been at war over Cyprus and yet…

I suspect they'll get the same "can you claim ALL your land as being under your control" admission questionnaire entry, too. Maybe those are "the conditions" the president's talking about?

Cyprus could become a member of NATO when conditions permit, the country's president says

NICOSIA, Cyprus (AP) — Cyprus could apply to become a member of NATO once its armed forces receive the necessary training and equipment with U.S. help to bring them up to the standards of the world's premier military alliance, the president of the Mediterranean island nation said Thursday.

apnews.com

Meanwhile, in other news, R.I.P.

American KIA in Ukraine brought home over Thanksgiving weekend

Two other American bodies were identified, and are in the process of being repatriated soon. We explore the process of identifying and bringing home deceased American soldiers from Ukraine.

www.counteroffensive.news

Also archived here. A bit more here:

Retired Navy Seal, SDFD firefighter dies in Ukraine

Retired Navy Seal, SDFD firefighter dies in Ukraine; Procession honoring Mike Meoli took place Thursday night, after his body arrived from Ukraine

www.10news.com

In Memoriam: Michael Meoli

www.c-tecc.org

 

[KevinB]

Interesting Trump taps pro-Ukraine retired general as special peace envoy - Euromaidan Press

 

[Skysix]

Interesting Trump taps pro-Ukraine retired general as special peace envoy - Euromaidan Press

Here's hoping he delegates the Ukraine file and decisions to Kellogg and Rubio and that Hegseth does not survive confirmation

 

[Skysix]

UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com)

In 2022, six-year-old Sasha from Odesa lost her leg in a Russian strike. Now, with a prosthetic, she’s back to rhythmic gymnastics, showing resilience has no limits.

bsky.app

 

[The Bread Guy]

A bit of tea-leaf reading - different statements post-Halifax from UKR's rep there, showing different asks of different folks. First, meeting with Joly & Blair ....

Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Ruslan Stefanchuk, met with Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly and Minister of National Defence Bill Blair

Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Ruslan Stefanchuk, met with Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly and Minister of National Defence Bill Blair

www.rada.gov.ua

... then with some Canadian Senators ...

Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Ruslan Stefanchuk, met with Canadian Senators during the Halifax International Security Forum

Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Ruslan Stefanchuk, met with Canadian Senators during the Halifax International Security Forum

www.rada.gov.ua

... and with U.S. Senators attending

Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Ruslan Stefanchuk, met with a U.S. Congressional delegation led by Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Jim Risch

Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Ruslan Stefanchuk, met with a U.S. Congressional delegation led by Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Jim Risch

www.rada.gov.ua

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggests Ukraine would give up Russian-occupied territory for NATO membership​

Zelenskyy suggests he would give up Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine for NATO membership

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said for the first time he would be willing to cede territory to Russia to end the war in his country.

www.abc.net.au

At least it's a start point.

 

[Skysix]

Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggests Ukraine would give up Russian-occupied territory for NATO membership​

Zelenskyy suggests he would give up Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine for NATO membership

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said for the first time he would be willing to cede territory to Russia to end the war in his country.

www.abc.net.au

At least it's a start point.

Only AFTER full membership is signed and ratified by all 32 NATO members, not just based on some sort of MOU or a position part way through the accession process

 

[The Bread Guy]

Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggests Ukraine would give up Russian-occupied territory for NATO membership​

Zelenskyy suggests he would give up Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine for NATO membership

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said for the first time he would be willing to cede territory to Russia to end the war in his country.

www.abc.net.au

At least it's a start point.

And here's the other end of the negotiating spectrum according to Reuters talking about POTUS47's nominee as UKR special envoy, Keith Kellogg ...

Since POTUS47 promised to end the war within 24 hours after inauguration, it'll be interesting to see:

• how much UKR is willing to move away from NATO membership (given UKR's president's latest salvo);
• how willing USSR 2.0 is to some to the table when it doesn't appear to GAF about grinding their machine down further; and
• how willing NATO member states'll be to accept UKR as a member with bits in the hands of the bad guys (although, as mentioned by others upthread, there has been precedent for NATO taking members that were sorta cut in half).

All this between now and January 21 (hell, let's go with the 22nd) -- that's 52 days as of this post.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Shame about that whole "no territorial disputes in play" thing before being able to join NATO.

Meanwhile, not everyone seems to be showing up to the party - or leaving early.

Desertion threatens to starve Ukraine's forces at a crucial time in its war with Russia

Some take medical leave and never return, haunted by the traumas of war and demoralized by bleak prospects for victory.

apnews.com

Not sure Croatia had ironed out all their issues with Bosnia and Serbia before they joined.

 

[Kirkhill]

Here's hoping he delegates the Ukraine file and decisions to Kellogg and Rubio and that Hegseth does not survive confirmation

The sense I am getting is that Trump is picking pro and con advisors and looking for arguments he can adjudicate.

Guessing his preferred course of action is going to be a mug's game.

He wants to keep his options open and be unpredictable.

2c.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If you want to try figure out how Trump’s head works, you should start by reading 'The Art of the Deal'. You'll get a good idea about his approach to negotiating and working things to his advantage.

 

[dapaterson]

If you want to try figure out how Trump’s head works, you should start by reading 'The Art of the Deal'. You'll get a good idea about his approach to negotiating and working things to his advantage.

Except he didn't write it. It was a ghost writer.

Donald Trump’s Ghostwriter Tells All

In “The Art of the Deal,” Tony Schwartz helped create the myth that Trump is a charming business genius. Now he calls him unfit to lead.

www.newyorker.com

 

[suffolkowner]

If the territory is frozen as is thats a win for Russia is it not?

 

[daftandbarmy]

If the territory is frozen as is thats a win for Russia is it not?

Given that they managed to send Finland and Sweden running into NATO's outstretched arms, and will likely see Ukraine (and perhaps others) join as well at some point, I'd say that's a pretty good trade.

But it's not my country...

 

[dimsum]

If the territory is frozen as is thats a win for Russia is it not?

Depends. Does Ukrainian forces still hold the Kursk region?

 

[suffolkowner]

Given that they managed to send Finland and Sweden running into NATO's outstretched arms, and will likely see Ukraine (and perhaps others) join as well at some point, I'd say that's a pretty good trade.

But it's not my country...

Finland and Sweden in NATO is good I guess but does Russia care?
you have the decimation of large parts of Ukraine vs the decimation of huge proportion of Russia's military capability
both have suffered disastrous losses from a population standpoint that they really couldnt afford
what happens to the people in the occupied Ukrainian territories?
Russia gets Crimea and its land bridge to it. To me thats a win for Russia and a loss for Ukraine but I dont think its decisive from a NATO standpoint

Depends. Does Ukrainian forces still hold the Kursk region?

i think the Ukrainians are losing ground there and elsewhere while the Russians continue to take huge losses

 

[Skysix]

Have not seen this map before. Sets out a 20 year plan for absorbing Ukraine into NovoRussia

That said my 2¢ is that (1) a chunk of Kursk will still be in Ukrainian hands by mid January (2) Russia will gave gained another few thousand square km of fields, treelines and pulverized villages (3) Putin will not agee to negotiate under any of Trumps terms or conditions as he still thinks he has the upper hand (4) Ukraine will not agree to negotiate under any of Trumps terms or conditions as handing over hundreds of thousands of their citizens to the Russian Gulag and putting much more of Ukraine under direct fire control and effectively losing access to exports via the Black Sea

I am not sure how SK will react to the rapidly increasing level of human and equipment support to Russia by NK, or how Poland (and friends) will respond to assist an abandoned Ukraine but I highly doubt they will submit to Putins or Trumps plans for eastern Europe.

 

[NavyShooter]

There was past discussion of a 'winter offensive' in previous years when the ground froze after the fall rainy season in Ukraine.

I'm wondering if the UKR forces will do a winter push to try and punch through somewhere before the Presidential handover date?

A swath of destruction via ATACMS/Storm-shadow/HIMARS to open a corridor, then punch through into a rear area? Change the game a bit?

 

[daftandbarmy]

There was past discussion of a 'winter offensive' in previous years when the ground froze after the fall rainy season in Ukraine.

I'm wondering if the UKR forces will do a winter push to try and punch through somewhere before the Presidential handover date?

A swath of destruction via ATACMS/Storm-shadow/HIMARS to open a corridor, then punch through into a rear area? Change the game a bit?

Not likely as they're running out of people and 'stuff'...

The Current State of Ukrainian Mobilisation and Ways to Boost Recruitment

Faced with a drop-off in the number of people volunteering to join its armed forces, Ukraine is increasingly turning to technological solutions to bolster its recruitment drive.

www.rusi.org

 

[Czech_pivo]

Not likely as they're running out of people and 'stuff'...

The Current State of Ukrainian Mobilisation and Ways to Boost Recruitment

Faced with a drop-off in the number of people volunteering to join its armed forces, Ukraine is increasingly turning to technological solutions to bolster its recruitment drive.

www.rusi.org

I think they used their last offensive power to invade the Kursk oblast to use as a bargaining chip going forward. They will need the winter to re-group, re-arm and re-train their next batch of offensive power.