The Next Conservative Leader

[Jed]

Whoever they pick will likely lose to Trudeau.  not because they aren't good or anything it's just that the electorate will likely stay with him barring something immense happening.

So O'toole loses, leadership race again and what not.  I suspect the smarter ones are waiting for the election after the next one where Trudeau's shine will likely be completely gone.

Your colors are showing too.  [ Unless you are just having a pessimistic outlook.

 

[Remius]

Your colors are showing too.  [ Unless you are just having a pessimistic outlook.

No I'm being realistic.  The opposition is currently disoriented.  The NDP is completely messed up that I doubt they will attract any significant liberal votes.  None of their leadership hopefuls are anything special or inspiring for that matter and the party itself doesn't know if it wants to go far left or stay in the center.

The CPC is in better shape.  Good talent.  But whoever runs in the next federal election will be wearing all the baggage of the last CPC government and people won't be tired of Trudeau yet.  and this is all dependant as well on how a Tory convention will shape up.  I am sure that their our elements of the party that will be dissatisfied with certain directions the party is going.  the party is working hard to show a united front but a leadership race could wreck that.  The leaders that should run should wait.  Losing the next time will mean political suicide. 

 

[ModlrMike]

No I'm being realistic.  The opposition is currently disoriented.  The NDP is completely messed up that I doubt they will attract any significant liberal votes.  None of their leadership hopefuls are anything special or inspiring for that matter and the party itself doesn't know if it wants to go far left or stay in the center.

The CPC is in better shape.  Good talent.  But whoever runs in the next federal election will be wearing all the baggage of the last CPC government and people won't be tired of Trudeau yet.  and this is all dependant as well on how a Tory convention will shape up.  I am sure that their our elements of the party that will be dissatisfied with certain directions the party is going.  the party is working hard to show a united front but a leadership race could wreck that.  The leaders that should run should wait.  Losing the next time will mean political suicide.

I think you're overlooking the obvious elephant in the room: the Conservatives can form the government without taking Quebec, the Liberals can not. If Quebec turns away from the Liberals towards the Bloc or NDP again, then there's unlikely to be enough seats left in the rest of Canada to assure them of carrying the day.

 

[Altair]

I think you're overlooking the obvious elephant in the room: the Conservatives can form the government without taking Quebec, the Liberals can not. If Quebec turns away from the Liberals towards the Bloc or NDP again, then there's unlikely to be enough seats left in the rest of Canada to assure them of carrying the day.

The bloc and NDP look like spent forces in Quebec right now.

Probably going to get worst once their new leaders are found.

That said it is the most politically unpredictable province so you never can know.

 

[Remius]

I think you're overlooking the obvious elephant in the room: the Conservatives can form the government without taking Quebec, the Liberals can not. If Quebec turns away from the Liberals towards the Bloc or NDP again, then there's unlikely to be enough seats left in the rest of Canada to assure them of carrying the day.

You are also overlooking the fact that right now the Bloc is a non factor.  it could change but I think it isn't going to get any better.  The NDP is looking less and less like an option.  Even with a Quebec leader they weren't able to take that province.  Jack Layton is dead and I suspect the NDP's chance of another Orange wave died with him.

But I think your math is off.  In the last election, even if the Liberals had no seats (ie all 40 seats they have now were gone) in Quebec.  And the unlikely scenario of all 40 going to the CPC, the Liberals still win, albeit a minority situation.  So yes they can win without Quebec.  In fact the last election, Quebec didn't win it for them it just gave them their majority.

That being said a CPC leader could survive if they reduced the LPC to a minority situation.  A far more likely scenario that defeating the LPC under Trudeau.

For the record, this isn't a question of me supporting the LPC.  I'm just looking at the facts and the current situation and unfortunately I don't see a viable leader that can take them on right now in any party nor do I think that one will come along in time to dethrone him. 

 

[QV]

There is plenty of time for a CPC leader to dethrone Trudeau.  McKay has a shot in my opinion, he will surely put a dent in the liberal tide out on the East coast.  And the liberals will probably have enough blunders between now and 2019 to sour their popularity where many of the ABC/ABH crowd will come back.  Time will tell I suppose.  I think the libs will be beat on the economy ultimately.   

 

[Altair]

So the same woman who helped propose the barbaric cultural practices hotline sends out a survey asking her supporters  if Canada should screen immigrants for animals Canadian values.

Hmmmm...

That can only end well.

 

[McG]

... asking her supporters if Canada should screen immigrants for animals Canadian values.

Auto correct did something weird to your "anti-Canadian" ... or did you find a different article where she wants immigrants who are more tuned to nature?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/kellie-leitch-survey-question-1.3744948

 

[Altair]

Auto correct did something weird to your "anti-Canadian" ... or did you find a different article where she wants immigrants who are more tuned to nature?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/kellie-leitch-survey-question-1.3744948

auto correct. Terrible invention.

 

[Journeyman]

auto correct. Terrible invention.

Proofreading. Free.

 

[Altair]

Proofreading. Free.

every now and again something is going g to slip by.

Not even durex is 100 percent effective.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

every now and again something is going g to slip by.

Not even durex is 100 percent effective.

 

[Lightguns]

Whoever they pick will likely lose to Trudeau.  not because they aren't good or anything it's just that the electorate will likely stay with him barring something immense happening.

So O'toole loses, leadership race again and what not.  I suspect the smarter ones are waiting for the election after the next one where Trudeau's shine will likely be completely gone.

I smell a Peter Peter Reform Appeaser

 

[Lumber]

Whoever they pick will likely lose to Trudeau.  not because they aren't good or anything it's just that the electorate will likely stay with him barring something immense happening.

So O'toole loses, leadership race again and what not.  I suspect the smarter ones are waiting for the election after the next one where Trudeau's shine will likely be completely gone.

And people say politicians don't think about the long haul...

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Proofreading; Free.

FTFY. Semi-colon is better for attaching these independent clauses  [

 

[Remius]

And people say politicians don't think about the long haul...

My prediction?  Rona Ambrose returns as leader after the next election loss.  I really thought she was going to make a move to Alberta Politics but she may be setting herself up to pick up the pieces after the next election and cruise to victory in the one after. 

 

[jollyjacktar]

Do think Canadians will be tired of the Liberals shit after two terms?

 

[Remius]

Do think Canadians will be tired of the Liberals crap after two terms?

That's my thought on it yes.  But more along the lines of that it will take at least two terms. 

 

[Old Sweat]

The CPC strategy could be to aim to reducing/eliminating the Liberal majority in 2019 and replacing them in government in 2023. Governments tend to defeating themselves by getting complacent, lazy and especially if Liberal by developing a sense of entitlement. Therefore however the CPC select as leader would not be someone to be dropped if he/she does not win in 2019. Therefore whoever the leader is should have the smarts, energy and long view to aim for a term in opposition and one or two terms in power.

Easier said then done.

 

[Altair]

The CPC strategy could be to aim to reducing/eliminating the Liberal majority in 2019 and replacing them in government in 2023. Governments tend to defeating themselves by getting complacent, lazy and especially if Liberal by developing a sense of entitlement. Therefore however the CPC select as leader would not be someone to be dropped if he/she does not win in 2019. Therefore whoever the leader is should have the smarts, energy and long view to aim for a term in opposition and one or two terms in power.

Easier said then done.

Wonder if the grammar police are going to give you a ticket.

But yes, depending on how well the new leader does they shouldn't be dropped after one election loss. I just wonder how patient the CPC members are. Tom Mulcair wanted to stay on to fight another day, e was pushed out instead.

Granted, should the CPC lose ground to the LPC next election that leader is probably toast.