Syria Superthread [merged]

[cupper]

It is  a bit of a moot point anyway. With the current political state of the US being so dysfunctional that they couldn't organize a p*ss-up in a brewery, along with a complete lack of willingness to do anything which would lose war-weary voters, and a military stretched beyond it's capacity, there won't be any move by the US to send forces to intervene.

Call me jaded, but having spent all of the Bush and Obama administrations living outside the DC Beltway, I shake my head and wonder how they ever became the World's Greatest Superpower. 

 

[tomahawk6]

Turkish troops will be rolling south into northern Syria sooner than later.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

It is  a bit of a moot point anyway. With the current political state of the US being so dysfunctional that they couldn't organize a p*ss-up in a brewery, along with a complete lack of willingness to do anything which would lose war-weary voters, and a military stretched beyond it's capacity, there won't be any move by the US to send forces to intervene.

Call me jaded, but having spent all of the Bush and Obama administrations living outside the DC Beltway, I shake my head and wonder how they ever became the World's Greatest Superpower.

And why should they intervene? Because the world expects them to make everything right all the time? Then shits all over them when they don't do what everyone expects? Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

If I was Obama, I'd let the whole ME light itself up and my biggest concern would be "who brought the hot dogs".

As to the question of how they became a superpower, I'll sure as hell bet it's not because of the general population of the US right now. Inside, or outside the beltway.

 

[cupper]

And why should they intervene? Because the world expects them to make everything right all the time? Then shits all over them when they don't do what everyone expects? Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

:nod:

I agree wholeheartedly, there is no reason to intervene, as there was no justifiable reason to intervene in the Libya either. With the exception of keeping the lid on the Arab-Israeli conflict, the US has no other real strategic interest in what happens in Syria.

As for the rest of the world expecting the US to make everything right, I don't really think that has ever been the case. In reality, what typically happens (Iraq and Afghanistan being the exceptions) is that the rest of the world sits back and waits to see what the US does, and then decides if it is politically expedient for them to commit their own country's resources, and what the minimum commitment is.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Turkish troops will be rolling south into northern Syria sooner than later.

I think under the old party, that would have happened, under the current government I doubt it.

 

[57Chevy]

                                          Shared with provisions of the Copyright Act

Syria - Turkey Border Clashes Possible?
Friday, June 24, 2011

Turkish And Syrian Forces In Tense Cross-Border Standoff -- The Telegraph
http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/2011/06/syria-turkey-border-clashes-possible.html

Turkish and Syrian forces engaged in a tense cross-border standoff on Thursday as a fresh military operation against Syrian dissidents threatened to spark a major regional crisis.

An elite Syrian army unit advanced to within quarter of a mile of the Turkish border, expanding an onslaught against opponents of President Bashar al-Assad.

Escalating an already acute refugee crisis, hundreds of Syrian civilians cut their way through a border fence into Turkey as they fled an advance into the frontier village of Khirbet al-Joz by the army's Fourth Division and Presidential Guard, led by Mr Assad's feared brother Maher.

read more at link...

 

[a_majoor]

As Syria destabilizes furthur:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/syria%E2%80%99s-future-alawite-military-coup-or-regional-civil-war/?print=1

Syria’s Future: Alawite Military Coup, or Regional Civil War

Posted By Farid Ghadry On July 1, 2011 @ 12:00 am In Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Syria may be on the brink of a civil war far bloodier than anything seen for a long time in the Middle East. To make matters worse, it could spill over into neighboring countries by pitting Sunni and Shia Muslims against one another, a conflict whose power has already been seen in Iraq

Iran, Hezbollah, and their allies in Iraq and elsewhere are often extremist Shia Muslims; the radicals further west — as in Saudi Arabia, Hamas, and the Muslim Brotherhood — are Sunni Muslims.

Syria is on the borderlands between these two doctrines. Most of its people are Sunni Muslims but there are also Christians, Druze, and Alawites. Who are the Alawites? While arguably Alawites are not Muslims at all, they claim to be Shia Muslims. Syria’s government is also aligned with Iran and Hezbollah — in other words, the Shia Muslim forces.

And therein lies the danger. The ruling Alawites comprise only about 12 percent of Syria’s population but largely dominate the government. The bloody repression of the opposition, which is largely Sunni, is creating communal tensions. Sunni Muslims, who outnumber Alawites by a margin of more than five-to-one, may view this as a Sunni-Alawites and equally a Sunni-Shia conflict.

The Syrian dictatorship has thus begun a blood feud regardless of these potential consequences. Many Syrians I have spoken with inside the country are seething with anger over the Alawite-led government’s butchering of Sunnis. They are equally aware that Hezbollah and the Iranian regime support President Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s dictator, secretly and cheer him publicly.

To try to convince enraged young revolutionaries that this is not religiously fostered but rather the work of thugs who happen to be Alawites is futile. Whether the revolution succeeds, is repressed, or continues, a communal war could be the result.

And a Sunni-Alawite bloodbath in Syria could lead to something similar happening in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Lebanon. The result could also be a sectarian war that might last for generations.

The best option would be a military coup led by an Alawite general who would free political prisoners, initiate real and major reforms, imprison those guilty of corruption and murder in the current government, and bring a transformation to democracy. By bringing the Alawites credit for ending what is widely perceived as an Alawite regime, such an act could defuse hatreds and lead to national conciliation.

Thus, there is an additional factor making the downfall of the Assad regime even more important and pressing. Otherwise, both Syria and the region will pay a high price, with the victims being mostly innocent victims of communal and religious hatred on both sides. Hopefully, there is a Syrian general who understands this situation. Equally, it is vital that those in the West understand there is limited time and that a successful revolution in Syria followed by national conciliation is in everyone’s interest.

Article printed from Pajamas Media: http://pajamasmedia.com

URL to article: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/syria%e2%80%99s-future-alawite-military-coup-or-regional-civil-war/

 

[a_majoor]

Cracks appearing in the Syrian establishment. Perhaps the most important issue is to discover what will replace the Assad regime?

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2011/07/top-syrian-generals-defect-announce-formation-of-free-syrian-army-to-fight-assad-video/

Top Syrian Generals Defect – Announce Formation of Free Syrian Army to Fight Assad (Video)
Posted by Jim Hoft on Sunday, July 31, 2011, 7:16 AM

The End of the Murderous Assad Regime May Be Near–
A top general in Syria defected on Friday and released video urging the army to quit killing freedom protesters and join the Free Syrian Army.

General Riad El As’ad directed his message to Assad and his allies in Iran and Hezbollah.

It has been widely reported that the Iranian regime and Hezbollah have been assisting the the Assad regime.

Syrian Major-General Riad El As’ad is joined by other officers in the video.

(7:00 AM CST – This translated video currently has only 52 hits.)

Arutz Sheva reported:

    A Syrian Major-General has deserted Assad’s army along with a group of other officers and joined the rebels.

    In an Arabic video clip posted on Youtube on July 29, 2011, the officer, Major-General Riad El As’ad is seen in the company of other officers, announcing the establishment of the “Free Syrian Army whose main goal will be to fight the army of oppression headed by President Bashar Assad”.

    As’ad accused the Assad regime of crimes against the Syrian people and called on the officers and soldiers in the Syrian army not to aim their weapons at the people. He further called on them to join the Free Syrian Army.

    The major-general warned that the Free Army will eliminate any soldier who acts to harm his own people. The present army commanders do not represent the army, he continued, they are acting for the criminal gang that controls the media and prevents the people from obtaining truthful information on what is happening.

After years of killing, tyranny, and oppression, the kingdom of silence is silent no more.

And, where has our president been? Silent.

 

[tamouh]

Cracks appearing in the Syrian establishment. Perhaps the most important issue is to discover what will replace the Assad regime?

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2011/07/top-syrian-generals-defect-announce-formation-of-free-syrian-army-to-fight-assad-video/

It has been a long time indeed!! The article you've posted above is inaccurate.

The defected Syrian Army Officer on that website is listed as Major-General. However, quick check on his rank reveals he is a Colonel in the Syrian Army (Later videos claim he is Colonel in the Syrian Air Defence).

As for intervening or not in Syria, first you want to know what the Syrians want on the ground, and I know for certain they don't want intervention. They believe Al-Assad regime can be toppled without outside intervention as long as Western Powers cut off all sources of economical means (particularly Oil) to the regime.

From the ground, the Syrian regime appears to be desperate and running out of options. Many cities are experiencing long line ups for fuel (diesel) because most of it being diverted to military operations. The Syrian army in general had been weakened by decades of neglect, corruption and low morals. The only real army in Syria at this time is the 4th Division controlled by Maher Al-Assad (Brother of Bashar Al-Assad).

Turkey is the only country to be able to flex its muscle and its army is more than capable to defeat Al-Assad regime on its own.

 

[cupper]

One has to wonder how much of an effect Mubarak's trial is going to have on the situation in both Libya and Syria. Will those leaders decide to fight to the bitter end or use more force to quell opposition rather than face the humiliation that Mubarak is experiencing.

 

[reason]

Why is nobody paying attention?

I'm calling it now, as many of you have already done. We're going to see amplified media on Syria and Iran VERY soon! (This is already happening) Israel will be talking about the horrible things happening in Syria, the U.S. will be demanding the violence stops, etc. And, before mid September, If any military intervention happens, I think Saudi Arabia will join Turkey aswell, then Iran will have to take side, when this happens, Israel will have the best opportunity to attack Iran's facilities, then WW3 follows.

if any military intervention on Syria happens, it will be not like Lybya or Iraq, all hell will break loose.

Out of all of this, Russia stands to be the one to watch. Both Iran and Syria are vital allies of mother Russia and I doubt very seriously if they will stand by and just watch as NATO, the U.S. and Israel pound the hell out of Syria and Iran. I do believe, this WILL be the start of World War III! With so much focused on the nuclear weapons programs, the chance one or more will be used during the process is almost a certainty!

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Why is nobody paying attention?

I'm calling it now...... I do believe, this WILL be the start of World War III! With so much focused on the nuclear weapons programs, the chance one or more will be used during the process is almost a certainty!

What an odd screen name you have.

Perhaps some of the following might have been more appropriate:

Screed?
Diatribe?
Troll?
Emotion (as opposed to, say, reason)?

 

[opp550]

I seriously doubt Russia or China will launch a nuclear war over Syria or Iran. They might get a little angry on the surface, but will most likely jump with joy as the US starts another costly war (For them).

 

[reason]

RUSSIAN ENVOY: NATO IS PLANNING ATTACKS ON SYRIA, IRAN
http://wrc559.com/2011/08/06/russian-envoy-nato-is-planning-attacks-on-syria-iran/
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/192596.html

Even as it finds itself still embroiled in Libya,  NATO is preparing to launch a military assault on Syria in order to create a  beachhead for a future attack on Iran, claims Russia’s envoy to NATO Dmitry  Rogozin.
“The planning [of the military campaign] is well  underway. It could be a logical conclusion of those military and propaganda  operations, which have been carried out by certain Western countries against  North Africa,” Rogozin  said in an interview with the Izvestia newspaper published on Friday.
The envoy added that attacks on Syria and Yemen  were part of a build-up focused around regime change in Iran.
“The noose around Iran is tightening. Military  planning against Iran is underway. And we are certainly concerned about an  escalation of a large-scale war in this huge region,” Rogozin said.
Rogozin has been known to make embellished  statements about NATO’s military adventurism in the past, so whether there will  actually be an intervention in Syria remains to be seen.
Moscow has consistently warned NATO not to meddle  in Syria, saying the country should be left to resolve its own problems as  violence that has killed 1,600 civilians since March continues to plague the  country.
Speculation surrounding an attack Iran, which  Rogozin claims is the long term goal of the assault on Syria, has peaked in  recent weeks.
Efforts by Palestinian leaders to achieve full  statehood, set to be heard by the United Nations in early September, has prompted  speculation that Israel is planning a surgical strike against Iran’s nuclear  facilities in September as a means of distracting from and ultimately derailing  the prospect of such an agreement.
Last month, former CIA agent  Robert Baer said that comments made by former Mossad head Meir Dagan “tell  us with near certainty that Netanyahu is planning an attack, and in as much as I  can guess when it’s going to be, it’s probably going to be in September before a  vote on the Palestinian state.”

Russia has a navy base in Tartus, Syria.
Russians also use other Syrian ports.

 

[Journeyman]

Russia has a navy base in Tartus, Syria

Hmmm.....a collection of workshops, empty barracks, and some logistic assets intended to support the Russian Mediterranean Squadron -- which was disbanded in 1991.

Yep, that's a pretty compelling reason to believe armageddon is on the horizon.  op:



Edit to add: While I regret giving the tinfoil-hat wackjob "wrc559" any further attention, citing his website as a source for anything (other than to chuckle at conspiracy theorists) speaks volumes about one's "reason."  :

 

[reason]

lol. yeah, maybe i was starting to believe in the conspiracy a little too much about a WW3.
i cant help but think its possible tho. with iran and syria being very close allies also having ties to russia, turkey and saudi want to intervene, backed by nato, israel / rest of the arab nations likley to get involved. who knows what will happen.


im continually following the news in syria.

Syria uprising may lead to regional war
The brutal crackdown in Syria continues unabated, and is likely to become the stage for a regional conflict involving Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the Gulf.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/syria-uprising-may-lead-to-regional-war-1.378391

Thousands of Egyptians have already signed a petition circulating on Facebook that calls for the expulsion of the Syrian ambassador from their country. For once, it is not an Israeli ambassador who receives such attention. The initiators of the petition hope to have over one million Egyptians sign the appeal, which may push the current Egyptian military government to publicly condemn Syrian President Bashar Assad.

New Syrian Facebook pages have decided to use humor to recruit people to the opposition, ironically describing the recent events in Syria as if they happened in Britain. Turkey, however, does not find the situation in Syria so funny.


A Syrian national shouts slogans against President Bashar Assad during a demonstration outside Syria's embassy in Cairo.

Photo by: AFP

In recent days, the Turkish army summoned hundreds of officers for reserve duty, placing them in bases near the border with Syria. Turkish sources report that the military has been on high alert along the border to prepare for a massive flight of Syrian refugees into the country, as well as for the possibility of NATO strikes in Syria. Only hours after Turkey's foreign minister visited Damascus did the government understand that Prime Minister Erdrogan's ultimatum to Assad fell on deaf ears, after news broke that the city of Homs was being battered by Syrian security forces.

The protests and the bloodshed continued on Friday, when human rights organizers claim 13 protesters were shot to death by Syrian security forces. According to reports, live fire was shot at thousands of worshippers on their way home from Friday prayers in the town of Dir al-Zur. Crowds went out into the streets across the country calling for Assad to step down.

While Turkey prepares for the worst, Iran refuses to print any news on the uprising in its state-run newspapers, while the government has warned that Syria may become the center of an international war. Iran has also transferred approximately five billion dollars to Syria in recent weeks, and according to Iraqi sources, Iran has demanded that Iraq transfer ten billion dollars to the Syrian government.

The involvement of Iran, Turkey, Saudia Arabia, and other gulf states has turned the Syrian uprising from an internal event - resulting from mass poverty, oppression, and a lack of economic and political future - into a potential regional war. Syria, whose regional strategic importance is based less on oil and natural resources, and more on its strong relationship with Iran and ability to intervene in Iraqi affairs, has been able to prevent the establishment of a military front against it. As opposed to the immediate international consensus that allowed for a military offensive in Libya, there has been no initiative to promote a similar UN Security Council in regards to Syria.

In contrast with Libya, where armed resistance could potentially serve as an alternative political power, there is no telling where Syria is headed. Will it end up as chaotic as Iraq, which suffered a difficult period of civil strife after the fall of Saddam? Will a new Syrian regime look toward Iran or the West for support? Will Turkey be able to rely on a new regime with an unchanged military to block the Kurdish PKK party from gaining power? Does the Saudi monarchy prefer a despised, yet well-known leader with whom it could negotiate for hefty sums of money? Such questions also preoccupy the West, which has not yet called for Assad to leave his castle.

In the absence of any outside military pressure, and while Syria can lean on Iran's power of deterrence, it is difficult to determine whether Assad's days are numbered. The military has implemented a strategy of separating the country into isolated cities, giving each one its own special "treatment" that the government hopes will serve as a lesson for others. This is the tale of cities such as Dara, Dir al-Zur, Idlib, Hama, and others that have essentially turned into ghost cities, or areas that where leading a normal life has become quite difficult.

This strategy, which presumes that the uprising could last for quite some time, has developed steadily over the last five months. Assad himself has even said that the rebellion may last up to two years. And despite the number of defectors (approximately 2,000), the president is able to preserve unity within his military's ranks. For now, at least, it seems as though Assad is here to stay.

 

[aesop081]

i cant help but think its possible tho.

Your use of capitalization is also possible.

 

[Danny_C]

Your use of capitalization is also possible.

I can't help but post this quote I saved from George Wallace.

"Capitalization is the difference between helping your Uncle Jack off a horse, and helping your uncle jack off a horse."
George Wallace, Milnet

 

[The Bread Guy]

Canada reiterates its strong condemnation of the ongoing violent military assault by the Assad regime against the Syrian people. This campaign of terror must stop.

The Assad regime has lost all legitimacy by killing its own people to stay in power.

I join with President Obama and other members of the international community in calling on President Assad to vacate his position, relinquish power and step down immediately. The Syrian people have a right to decide for themselves the next steps for Syria's future.

Canada has taken decisive action imposing sanctions that directly target members of the current Syrian regime and those who provide it with support.

Canada stands with the Syrian people in their efforts to secure freedom and democracy, and looks forward to a new Syria that respects the rights of all of its people and lives in peace with its neighbours.

PM statement, 18 Aug 11

 

[57Chevy]

                                            Shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

Experts Skeptical Syria's Assad Will Resign
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/Experts-Skeptical-About-Assad-Departure-128006503.html
Cecily Hilleary | Washington August 18, 2011

President Barack Obama has issued his strongest call to date for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad to relinquish power. In a statement released Thursday the U.S. leader has said that "the future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way."

article continues.......

President Obama: "The future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way."
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/08/18/president-obama-future-syria-must-be-determined-its-people-president-bashar-al-assad
Macon Phillips on August 18, 2011

Today, President Obama called for the President of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, to step aside and took the strongest financial  action against the Syrian regime thus far.  Here is President Obama's full statement on the situation in Syria: (at link)
                                            ________________________________________

Photo:
A demonstrator poses with an effigy of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad during a protest Istanbul June 24, 2011. Due to restricted foreign media access, few images of anti-government protests within Syria have made it out of that country.