Some Eyes on Danielle Smith

[Edward Campbell]

The wisdom of this move will be tested at the ballot box.

You're quite right, and I'm too far removed to have any useful sense of Alberta politics, but ...

It seems to me that Alberta has a very long tradition of conservatism both fiscal and social, the latter especially in some rural areas. But it also seems to me that the big cities and larger towns are socially moderate, even progressive, and want, above all, sound fiscal management. That's why, even under Stelmach and Redford, the PCs maintained a decent share of the vote. There is a "hard right," a "religious right," too and it did not cross the floor. Premier Prentice's caucus is, probably, a tad more fiscally conservative than it was last week, but I doubt Ms Smith and her colleagues are going to shift the social status of the caucus in any direction at all.

It is the size of the "hard right' vote that remains to be seen. 400,000+ voted for Wildrose in the last election. Recent polling suggests the PCs have 35%, Wildrose less than 30% and the Liberals and NDP about 15% each. In the last election it was 44%/34%/10%/10% and the seats divided 61/17/5/4. It seems to me that Wildrose is badly positioned to get anything like, say, 25% of the vote and, if they're lucky, they and the Liberals and the NDP will split 15 to 25 seats between them, leaving Premier Prentice with an easy majority of 60 to 75 seats (out of 87) because, since Redford resigned and Prentice took over the PCs have gone steadily, albeit slowly, up in the polls while Wildrose has fallen rapidly from around 50% in March/April 2014 to <30% now.

My  :2c:  from the outside looking in.


Edit: typo

 

[Infanteer]

Alberta is a good exemplar for a caretaker government.  Gas is cheap, taxes are low and everyone has a job.  As long as the government doesn't do anything obscene like try to build penthouse suites, voters are liable to not think too much on election day and keep the caretaker in its seat.

 

[Infanteer]

This thread can probably be retitled "No Eyes on Danielle Smith"

Seems the electorate will only take so much slippery moves.  She's done in Alberta politics.

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-last-of-danielle/

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/touch/story.html?id=10930428

 

[GAP]

she will run federally

 

[Infanteer]

She better find a riding outside of Alberta....

 

[TCBF]

She better find a riding outside of Alberta....

- I suggest Argentina.

 

[Alberta Bound]

Possibly her father in law can help with career options.

For the curious, look up Dennis Surrendi and his book on his life experiences including being a Canadian drafted into the U.S. Army.

 

[a_majoor]

Kind of sad actually. As an individual she seems to have many of the qualities we claim to want in a politician, and when things fell apart in the Wildrose she made the "least worst choice", but that did not pay off.

I suspect she may be of value in politics as one of the "powers behind the throne", and will have a career in a think tank or maybe academia.

 

[Blackadder1916]

I suspect she may be of value in politics as one of the "powers behind the throne", and will have a career in a think tank or maybe academia.

To be one of the "powers behind the throne", one would assume that such an individual would have some power - financial resources, political connections, a constituency that would follow their lead, favours that are owed them, knowledge of where the bodies are buried - Ms. Smith may have had "access" to some of those while leader of the Wildrose, but she left most of that behind when she crossed the floor.  Her political capital now is barely pocket change.  To the hardcore of the Wildrose (the social conservatives) she is a traitor, not that she, as primarily a fiscal conservative, was their darling before.  While the governing Progressive Conservatives may have accepted her and her fellow travellers when they crossed, they didn't need them, thus no favours were forthcoming as seen in not getting the PC nomination.  Will she have to resort to flipping burgers to earn a living, definitely not.  However, I would find it unlikely that she will accept any role that would provide an opportunity for others to point her out as the poster girl of possibly the dumbest political mistake in Alberta recent history.

 

[TCBF]

- Just another housewife now.