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P-8 Poseidon

So you're saying, given all your probables, that an aircraft cannot, in any case, come in at Mach 1.5, or maybe faster, at sea level, without being detected before it lifts the hats off the lookouts?

It's pretty unlikely. Radar horizon vs very low flying aircraft is around 20 nm, and assuming they're flying at 900 knots, they'll cover that distance in 80 seconds. A radar will have a lot of chances to detect the aircraft in that 80 seconds. In any case, at that range it wouldn't matter if the aircraft was an F-35 or not, the math is still the same.

If you are not on auto engage, could you negate the threat after he appeared to you in that time, or would he be passed and gone before you realized and could react?

That would depend on the operators more than the equipment. For what it's worth, there isn't much difference between a pop-up missile attack and what you've described. And we've had to deal with the threat of pop-up missile attacks for 50 years.
 
All of the above are nice theoretical discussions on the best "attack" bird against a military surface target in wartime. Unfortunately, that is only a very small fraction of what we expect from a MPA, and the only fraction for which fast air can outperform it.

Should we deal with the more likely scenarios of the next 30 years or so for Canada?

95% of targets in the Canadian area of maritime interest will be merchant ships, the other 5% military in nature, but met in peaceful conditions.

Dealing with merchant ships first: Regardless of their navigation radar capabilities, they won't spot a F-35, or an MPA or even a Helicopter. Why? (I have sailed with merchies), and once they are a few miles off the coast, the officer of the watch may glance at his radar every 15-20 minutes or so. When he does, he is looking for something as big as he is and won't notice the small contact that is an airplane of any description. His alarm is set for anything that crosses the 12 NM range ring.

So why do we bother with them? Because it lets us compile the common maritime picture, which is more of an intelligence tool than anything else and it lets those merchies know that we are watching them. For that, the MPA is far better than fast air. Sure you can go by in your F-35 at mach 1.5, but at that speed, the merchant seaman don't even know who overflew them, and do you think the F-35 pilot has time to note the ship's name, port of origin marked on the stern and the shipping company by smokestack markings and make a note of all the main characteristics of the ship to compare the compiled photograph databank and confirm that the ship is the one it pretends to be? No, but MPA's can.

As for military targets in peace time, MPA's are superior again. CDN Aviator has explained above all of the types of information that MPA's can gather on enemy targets before they even bother to  come close enough to be detected, if they ever do. But in peace time, I certainly would close the target after gathering all my info on it, just to tell them "Look here buddy, I know you are here and I got all sort of good data on you. See ya next time!".

Finally , and I know its not even been suggested as a fast air potential, but there is the ASW aspect to the job that must be taken into consideration: When you leave on patrol, you don't know ahead of time what type of contact you are likely to encounter, surface or subsurface. MPA's cover the range, fast air doesn't.  I would rather have a platform that does all the missions out here than one that only does  one limited aspect.

But getting back to what this thread is supposed to be about, the P-8 Poseidon, IMHO our Aurora's are doing a great job and we may have them for a while yet in view of fiscal constraints, but if we had to replace them today, the P-8 on a one for one replacement basis would be my first choice.
 
SeaKingTacco said:
Green On!

I'm pretty sure that we know each other.

Look- I will stipulate up front that long range, high endurance UAVs have a place in our inventory and will eventually enter service with the CF.  I'm just not sure that I agree with your position on the availabilty of commercial satellites to meet our control segment needs- I don't thnk that they are always in the right orbits for us, that we can get all of dedicated bandwidth we need at a price that we can live with and that it would be a secure enough set up.  I also think that the support personnel bill (Comm techs, Int Ops, etc) to make this work properly has always been under- estimated.  Finally, not even the US Military has been able to convince the FAA  to allow both UAVs and civil traffic to mix, because they haven't been able to build a compelling safety of flight case.  The case will be eventually built- I just don't think it will happen until around 2020.

Good discussion.

SH-3 Tacco

In Canada we are well served by the ANIK family of geosynchronous satellites, and the price for a dedicated Ku transponder or two would not be a real show-stopper, but that really is a moot point in terms of cost in a UAS vs manned aircraft discussion.  If we want to pass NRT ISR data (SAR/GMTI/FMV,ESM,etc) from a CP-140, P-8, MC-12, or whatever, back to a central location, it would require the same bandwidth as if it was collected by a UAS.  Conversely, if the UAS is within LOS of a ground or sea element (or manned a/c) this data stream can be fed via data link for free.  Additionally, if we want to solely conduct collection, and analyse at a later date, the mission can be stored onboard and downloaded at the end of the flight.  C2 links use minuscule amounts of bandwidth in comparison to data, and are not really a factor.  I'm not a Information Assurance  expert, but I don't see how the issue of security is something we couldn't overcome; regardless of the medium, data can be encrypted and redundancy added.

Of course, manned platforms have the ability to conduct a certain amount of on-board exploitation, but I really believe that for numerous reasons, this can in many instances be better executed via reach-back and is the way of the future.  Of course there will still be the need for platforms like the P-8 to execute mission requirements that UASs can't do.

Finally, at FL 600 there is virtually no other air traffic to be concerned about except a few U2s, and other HALEs, so I don't imagine national ATM agencies are too concerned about the mixing of manned and un-manned platforms in that part of the sky. In fact one such agency has just released guidelines on this very issue. Your point about flight in non-segregated, congested airspace is valid, but this only makes up a small percentage of a HALE UAS mission profile (arr & dep) and safe separation can be easily managed procedurally...as it is today in several locations.



Green On!
 
Green On!

Perhaps my Google Fu is weak tonight, but what I am seeing is that the K-band attenuation for Anik F3 will cause definite issues North of Yellowknife, West of Vancouver Island or East of the Grand Banks, unless one has a big honkin receiver/transmitter:
www.satbeams.com/footprints?beam=5772

I'm not trying to be combative- I'm genuinely curious if I'm reading the reception chart correctly.

I will also stipulate that few will care if we operate a UAS at FL600- it was dipping below that , especially for launch and recovery, that I don't believe Transport Canada or Navcanada are institutionally ready for, yet.
 
SKT:

Many military airspaces are always or NOTAMd to infinity.  Would it not be possible to use such airpsace for Launch & recovery?
 
A CYR up to FL600?  That might work.  An ALTRV may work better.  I guess it kind of depends on where the mythical UAS are based and where they are expected to patrol...
 
SKT,

I don't see your question as combative, and I'd say your Google FU is pretty strong as that is a great link. To be honest, I have no idea what sort of db gain is required for the bandwidth required. And yes there are issues with coverage in the north, but I'm surprised how quickly the Anik 3 Ku coverage drops off the coasts. I guess since fish don't watch TV, you're not going to see a lot of Ku coverage where there aren't a lot of paying customers.  Still, between the various other birds (ie Anik 1, 2, Galaxy 28) up there, enough coverage should be available to handle the coasts and even up to the mid arctic.




 
If by "up north" you guys mean the high arctic - there is no coverage to speak of.  CFS Alert has to daisy chain its data via a microwave link hundreds of miles south to Eureka in order for data upload. 
 
I hope this adds a bit of light, rather than just heat, to the discussion.

Real global satellite coverage is impossible from the geostationary orbit (GEO) - that position, some 35,000+ KM above the equator, in which a satellite orbits at the same speed as the earth rotates and, therefore, appears to be stationary above a single point on the earth. A little basic arithmetic will show you that the coverage stops will short of e.g. Alert - as others have said.

Most satellites use multiple antennas and multiple signal "shapes" to direct their beams to specific target markets or areas of interest. Some frequency bands are better for wide area coverage, others are better suited to "spot" service. Most satellites operates n the 4-8, and 12-40 GHz bands - subdivided by relatively senseless and non-standard letter codes.

In general, three satellites in GEO (with at least one spare 'parked' in orbit) can cover most of the surface of the planet from 80oN to 80oS - which is pretty nearly global coverage.

To get real global coverage one must use satellites in non-geostationary orbits (NGSO). There are many NGSO schemes: low earth orbit (LEO) (think e.g. Iridium), medium earth orbit (MEO) (think e.g. Globalstar) or high earth or highly elliptical orbit (HEO) and polar orbit, and, and, and ... Each has pros and cons but each requires:

1. A 'constellation' of satellites, say a dozen for MEO and 60+ for LEO to provide near real time, 24/7, global coverage; and

2. Some combination of high power on the satellites - to deal with, say, hand held earth stations, and/or high gain and steerable antennas on earth - to deal with relatively low power satellites.

I no longer know anything about costs, but way back back when, circa 1995, I knew that Motorola spent in excess of $10 billion to launch 66 LEO satellites. I forget how many launches there were (11 or 12, I think) but it was a big expenditure.

Could Canada do such a thing, launch its own military, global satellite constellation? Technically, yes. It is rocket science, but we can do it. Can we afford it? Broadly, yes; Canada can afford it, DND cannot. Could a consortium of nations launch a shared government/military global satellite system? Yes, provided they are really trusted allies - let's say they have not fired shots in anger (at one another) for more than 100 years. The problem with shared systems is that the 'partners' must agree to share control and information - something the US, for example, is always reluctant to do. Can a 'consortium' that does not include the USA design, build, launch and manage really effective, secure, global satellite networks for surveillance and warning and C2? Yes. Much of the technology the USA does not want to share with allies comes from Australian, British, Canadian, Dutch and e.g. Singaporean universities and research centres.

Satellites are not (overly) complicated but they are expensive. 

 
 
Edward-

Thank-you for the satellite primer.  I realized that a couple of the posts may have wandered into territory where (possibly) a good deal of the readership did not understand the orbital mechanics at play.

 
Now the Brits are looking for something to replace the Nimrod:

MoD considers maritime patrol options
http://www.defencemanagement.com/news_story.asp?id=15587

A joint Royal Navy/RAF team is "considering options" for the UK's maritime patrol capability in the long term following the scrapping of the Nimrod MRA4 programme, the MoD has confirmed.

The Portsmouth News this week reported that the MoD may be prepared to spend up to £1bn on a new maritime patrol aircraft [emphasis added] to be operated by the Fleet Air Arm.

The 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) cancelled the Nimrod MRA4 programme before the nine aircraft had been accepted into service, leading to the closure of RAF Kinloss.

The programme had cost around £4bn, and was nearly £800m over budget and nine-and-a-half years late when it was scrapped.

An MoD spokesman said: "Ministers and service chiefs have made clear that the decision in October's SDSR not to bring the Nimrod MRA4 into service was difficult.

"The severe financial pressures and the urgent need to bring the defence programme into balance meant we could not retain all existing programmes. We will continue joint maritime patrol activities with our allies and will ensure the integrity of UK waters by utilising a range of other military assets, including Type 23 Frigates, Merlin Anti Submarine Warfare helicopters and Hercules C-130 aircraft.

"As part of SDSR implementation work, a joint Navy/RAF team is considering options for the UK's longer-term requirement for a maritime patrol capability."

Might what the UK comes up with be worth watching in terms of our options to replace the Aurora?

Mark
Ottawa
 
As we have not "officially" started looking at the Aurora's replacement by issuing specs for biding, anything else than a P-8 Poseidon that would come out in the meantime could be worth watching as option for replacement of the Aurora, as long as you are talking about another LRMPA.

If you are talking about the other stop gap measures the UK is considering, i.e. the use of frigates and maritime helicopters, the size of our maritime area of responsibility and the limited helicopter and frigate resources we possess would make it impossible to substitute them for the Aurora's tasks at a reasonable cost (we would easily be talking multiples of the cost of purchasing new LRMPA's). For Canada's situation, nothing gives us a better "bang for the buck" in naval surveillance and area ASW capability than a maritime patrol plane.
 
The CMA(Aurora Replacement) project will be the next political hot potato of defence procurement.  Watch for the pressure from industry(read Bombardier) to award the contract domestically.  If you go domestic you may get a half descent ISR package but no weapons capability.
 
D3 said:
If you go domestic you may get a half descent ISR package but no weapons capability.

That depends entirely on the airframe chosen and what type(s) of weapons you wish to employ. Your choice of terms (ISR) also overlooks the fact that ISR is not the Aurora's only role.
 
D3 said:
The CMA(Aurora Replacement) project will be the next political hot potato of defence procurement. 
I don't think it is the next project for the foreseeable future - AIMP and ASLEP (wing replacement) has pretty much taken care of the SGOD for a fair chunk of years. 

If the Canadian Government is still serious about its ASW role, then nothing that Bombardier has to offer COTS will suffice.  They will need to pony up the cash like Boeing did with their P-8 platform and design something with a bomb-bay and huge range.
 
Zoomie said:
.  They will need to pony up the cash like Boeing did with their P-8 platform and design something with a bomb-bay and huge range.

...and that will likely make whatever they come up with unaffordable. The only possibility (IMHO) is to partner up with other nations seeking to replace their P-3 or ATL 1/2 and develop an alternative to the P-8.

AIMP block 3 and ASLEP will allow the CP-140 to continue to 2025-2030. If Canada starts thinking seriously now, that gives time to come up with realistic replacement options while maintaining a serious capability.
 
D3 said:
The CMA(Aurora Replacement) project will be the next political hot potato of defence procurement. 

Fixed Wing SAR will be much, much more of a hot potato and much much sooner than the CMA project.  Viking Air is pushing their new Twin Otters; Bombardier is pushing the Q400; and there's the C27 and C295 both looking for a sale in Canada.


I suspect sequencing of other major projects will have a major impact  on FWSAR - my cynical side suggests we'll get Q400s if Quebec shipyards are cut out of the shipbuilding strategy, Twin Otters if the west coast is excluded...
 
dapaterson said:
my cynical side suggests we'll get Q400s if Quebec shipyards are cut out of the shipbuilding strategy,

Because buying aircraft built in Toronto is a surefire way to keep Quebec happy?
 
Loachman said:
Because buying aircraft built in Toronto is a surefire way to keep Quebec happy?

LM, it's still a Bombardier product and many/most parts are still made in Dorval.  Final assembly is at Downsview, not a lot of the fabrication.


As a tangential viewer to the CMA issue, my assessment is a practical although likely unpopular (with those who want to be seen as moving forward) option.  Much like there is lots of life left in the design of the CH-47 (I think we'll see them flying well past the middle of the century), I think the design of the P-3/CP140 is particularly sound, just the issue of some components (wing boxes, engines, etc...) needs to be addressed.  I think the best bang for the buck for the taxpayers would be Phase 4 and ongoing ASLEP-type program elements for the next 30-40 years.  I can't help but think that the P-8 was an idea looking for job.

Regards
G2G 
 
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