I foresee some problems:
1)What constitute as stable governance that will show or stratify the Western states (+ NATO->ISAF) and other non-government groups that the Afghan state is stable enough?
Afghanistan is a by product of European expansionism; there was no Afghanistan before that (there was concept in Western history). Afghanistan is comprised of many tribal groups and in these tribal group these groups have the same religion but at the same time different interpretations. In the West we are taught that there should be a separation between the state and religion(s). However the Afghan people does not hold that view; religion and governance comes hand in hand. With these differences to create a government that includes all these groups is hard and some say almost impossible. After centuries of barbarism one can say the use of violence as a legitimate way to solve problems is in trenched in the minds of the Afghans. However there is also groups who believe in peace to a certain extent because the teaching of the Koran.
Democracy in the most simplest terms is the collective agreement among the majority (personal free will) to agree on governance. The Afghan people must put aside the hard line rhetoric of being in a certain group who are superior to others mentality. Can we as a outsider imposes a liberal democracy and show positive results that the average Afghan can see; example through elections and other social, economical and political means. Can we adopt and adapt local customs and traditions (the "good" parts) with democracy? Karzai may request or demand we leave but "we" want to see a stability before we do.
2) Giving a pull out date.
it is a double edge sword problem. On one hand if ISAF gives a solid date on pulling out it will signal to the Taliban and other militant groups in Afghanistan to just wait it out. On the other hand if we don't give a pull out date the current Afghan government will lack or not as pressured to take the initiative to be self sufficient.
By not giving a pull out date on logic the Taliban will see a) lets bleed the ISAF forces more b) there is no way of winning and better have a peace settlement and acculturate to the government so Western troops can leave. By giving a pull out date it can signal to the average Afghan people that they as a people have united that country and now strong enough to stand on its own and participate in the world community as equals. A pull out date can reinforce the belief of a stable government.
3) (jumping ahead here, worst case) If Afghanistan fails what do we do with the massive migration of refugees to neighbouring states? what are we going to do with the people who have worked with the West? do we leave them or take them with us; the ones who want to leave. How will a fail state impact on the already volatile region? It can potentially polarize a regional problem into a international one.
1)What constitute as stable governance that will show or stratify the Western states (+ NATO->ISAF) and other non-government groups that the Afghan state is stable enough?
Afghanistan is a by product of European expansionism; there was no Afghanistan before that (there was concept in Western history). Afghanistan is comprised of many tribal groups and in these tribal group these groups have the same religion but at the same time different interpretations. In the West we are taught that there should be a separation between the state and religion(s). However the Afghan people does not hold that view; religion and governance comes hand in hand. With these differences to create a government that includes all these groups is hard and some say almost impossible. After centuries of barbarism one can say the use of violence as a legitimate way to solve problems is in trenched in the minds of the Afghans. However there is also groups who believe in peace to a certain extent because the teaching of the Koran.
Democracy in the most simplest terms is the collective agreement among the majority (personal free will) to agree on governance. The Afghan people must put aside the hard line rhetoric of being in a certain group who are superior to others mentality. Can we as a outsider imposes a liberal democracy and show positive results that the average Afghan can see; example through elections and other social, economical and political means. Can we adopt and adapt local customs and traditions (the "good" parts) with democracy? Karzai may request or demand we leave but "we" want to see a stability before we do.
2) Giving a pull out date.
it is a double edge sword problem. On one hand if ISAF gives a solid date on pulling out it will signal to the Taliban and other militant groups in Afghanistan to just wait it out. On the other hand if we don't give a pull out date the current Afghan government will lack or not as pressured to take the initiative to be self sufficient.
By not giving a pull out date on logic the Taliban will see a) lets bleed the ISAF forces more b) there is no way of winning and better have a peace settlement and acculturate to the government so Western troops can leave. By giving a pull out date it can signal to the average Afghan people that they as a people have united that country and now strong enough to stand on its own and participate in the world community as equals. A pull out date can reinforce the belief of a stable government.
3) (jumping ahead here, worst case) If Afghanistan fails what do we do with the massive migration of refugees to neighbouring states? what are we going to do with the people who have worked with the West? do we leave them or take them with us; the ones who want to leave. How will a fail state impact on the already volatile region? It can potentially polarize a regional problem into a international one.
