CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Kirkhill]

Opinion: Canada is not an ‘energy superpower.’ We’re an oil superpower

We can’t change U.S. policy, but we can stop shooting ourselves in the foot

www.theglobeandmail.com

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau bought a pipeline in 2018, and then pushed through the building of the Trans Mountain Expansion project. For that, he deserves credit and thanks. It’s one of the most significant economic accomplishments of his time in office. It will pay dividends to our economy for decades to come.

But you’ll never hear his government or his party crowing about it. Nope.

How could they? TMX is (sigh) an oil pipeline. And the Trudeau government acts like there’s an omertà on that word: oil. In the Liberal style guide, it’s a four-letter word. Ministers and the PM try to avoid using it in polite company. Like other swear words, it only comes out under duress.

But under the duress of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats, oil is suddenly being talked about, loudly and often. We are being forced to see things as they are, and to call them by their names.

Canada is not an “energy superpower” that exports lots of “energy” – these being the Trudeau government’s preferred euphemisms. We produce and export massive amounts of oil. We are on oil superpower. Oil, oil, oil.

We’re the world’s fourth-largest producer of oil, out-pumping every country in the Middle East save Saudi Arabia. Canada is also the world’s fifth largest producer of natural gas, ahead of all in the Mideast except Iran.

In 2023, Canada exported $192-billion worth of “energy” – $4-billion of electricity and $134-billion of crude oil and bitumen, plus another $54-billion worth of natural gas, coal and refined oil.

1. Ottawa should finance one (or more) new pipelines: The Trudeau government did the right thing sinking public money into building TMX. Despite significant cost overruns, the project is already an economic winner. It makes it possible to ship 890,000 barrels a day to where oil prices are higher, beyond the U.S.

Last April, the Bank of Canada estimated that the new pipeline would add a quarter percentage point to Canadian economic growth.

A careful analysis will be needed to determine which pipeline (or pipelines) should get federal backing. Maybe the best course is reviving Northern Gateway to the Pacific. Or Energy East to the Atlantic. Maybe there are other options.

But the necessity of doing something, and of federal financial muscle to get it done, is the same as the case for building the Canadian Pacific Railway in the late 19th century. Canada is in political peril if we allow the trade of our most important commodity to remain so dependent on the U.S.

And whereas building the CPR imposed economic costs – north-south trade was cheaper, but east-west trade was the price of nationhood – getting more oil and gas to tidewater is national insurance that will more than earn back its premiums, through higher prices.

Sir John A's National Policy.

 

[Good2Golf]

Revisit Northern Gateway’s cancellation, for a start.

Why Was the Northern Gateway Pipeline Cancelled?

Why was the Northern Gateway pipeline in Canada cancelled? What can Canadians learn from the Northern Gateway's failure to help us get future projects built? Learn more today!

www.canadaaction.ca

 

[Fishbone Jones]

They’re uh… going with “Canada First”, eh? Did they not google that one to check before they picked it? There’s some not great baggage with that label that their opponents in the election will be able to make hay with.

The opposition will make hay with whatever is available, true or not. We don't have recent examples, but a look south proves it. The democrats are going absolutely apoplectic over Trumps moves.

They are screaming and yelling, talking about fighting in the streets, making shit up to try gain attention. They are almost done as a party and it's the normal, entrenched old guard seeing their carreer at its end who are the most vocal and animated.

The keep screaming Musk wasn't elected, knowing full well he doesn't need to be. But it makes good TV.

 

[Kirkhill]

Putting this onto the pile of chips - cost of entry into the US market?

Missile-defence system for all of North America ‘makes sense’: Blair

U.S. President planning ‘Iron Dome’ shield for United States

www.theglobeandmail.com

Mr. Blair, speaking to reporters after visiting with U.S. lawmakers, said he doesn’t think Mr. Trump’s missile-defence shield should stop at the Canada-U.S. border.

“Frankly, an integrated missile-defence system for all of North America is the thing that makes sense to everybody,” Mr. Blair said.

Mr. Blair didn’t make a commitment to join but made clear in his comments Thursday that Canada should be part of the conversation.

Breaking Defense on "Iron Dome USA (NORAD?)"

Exclusive: Here's who Hegseth may task to put together Trump's Iron Dome plan - Breaking Defense

Under the draft, by Feb. 28 the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, DoD components, military departments, combatant commands and the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) are to put together three "scalable reference architectures" for "small, medium and large options" for the shield using "kinetic...

breakingdefense.com

The secret to delivering Trump’s Iron Dome program - Breaking Defense

Charles Beames lays out how the Iron Dome for America project needs to be structured in order for it to be successful.

breakingdefense.com

...

It's late in the day, but it is movement in the right direction as far as I am concerned.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

He has been talking half heartedly talking about annexing Canada. According to Trump, we have nothing the USA needs.

I think he's stayed away from talk of annexing or taking Canada for the most part. Any talk of annexing has the caveat of "if that's what Canadians want".
Trudeau has learned nothing about using his inflammatory speech, over nine years, to divide the nation. Now he's flipping and trying to use exactly the same style to try unite us. He's a lame duck. A has been. He engineered Carney’s seamless takeover and now nobody sees him as PM anymore. He's just a big, black, festering boil in Canada's history of destructive interlopers.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Opinion: Canada is not an ‘energy superpower.’ We’re an oil superpower

We can’t change U.S. policy, but we can stop shooting ourselves in the foot

www.theglobeandmail.com

That doesn't appear to jive with the real numbers posted earlier.

Canada-U.S. Energy Trade: 10 Facts That Will Amaze You

Just how important is the Canada-U.S. energy trade relationship? Learn more about this critical partnership and how it lays a strong foundation for Canadian and American energy security and economic prosperity with these fun facts!

www.canadaaction.ca

 

[The Bread Guy]

So, the thinnest of hairs of movement on (at least some kind of) pipelines?

Ottawa, provinces should discuss possibility of west-east oil pipeline: Wilkinson

MONTREAL - Federal Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson says Ottawa and the provinces should discuss the possibility of an oil pipeline to Eastern Canada to improve energy security and diversify trade.

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

A tale of two pipelines: Quebec reconsiders LNG, but not oil

Just a day after categorically rejecting the Energy East oil pipeline, Quebec is now rethinking its stance on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline from Western Canada thanks to economic uncertainty and trade tensions with the US.

www.westernstandard.news

 

[KevinB]

They may be different than other countries or not to the same extent, but, the US has restrictions or limitations on the movement of goods, services and labour between states. They just don't like other nations' protections. It is similar to the myth that their agricultural sector isn't subsidized.

Certain items within State purview can be restricted, and some states do have restrictions, so states even have restrictions on Federally Controlled items:
Alcohol is a good example, as some states do not allow alcohol to be mailed or otherwise be shipped to individuals. The require all alcohol to be acquired from state licensed establishments, as well as some states do not allow any form of online or mail order purchase (internal or external).

Now several protections/prohibitions have gone to the USSS and been overturned if that relates to a Federally controlled item, but for items not specifically called out as Federal - the States have the autonomy to do as they wish.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

So, the thinnest of hairs of movement on (at least some kind of) pipelines?

Ottawa, provinces should discuss possibility of west-east oil pipeline: Wilkinson

MONTREAL - Federal Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson says Ottawa and the provinces should discuss the possibility of an oil pipeline to Eastern Canada to improve energy security and diversify trade.

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

A tale of two pipelines: Quebec reconsiders LNG, but not oil

Just a day after categorically rejecting the Energy East oil pipeline, Quebec is now rethinking its stance on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline from Western Canada thanks to economic uncertainty and trade tensions with the US.

www.westernstandard.news

Nope. Fuck 'em. Time for tough love. You'll take it all or we start withholding transfer payments from the O&G provinces that you get and bypass your depots in Montreal and Quebec City. They're a province, not a nation. About time they were reminded of that.

 

[Good2Golf]

Approve Northern Gateway, bring Energy East only as far as Sarina, since Ontario has no issue with Western Canadian Select, and then consume in Ontario. I’d also branch Energy East up to Churchill, so MB can participate in helping Alberta get its oil and gas to market.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

And there it is. The PM of Japan just announced from the podium, in the WH, that the US & Japan will be co-operating on the O&G file. There's one of Carney's customers gone. Thanks trudeau.

 

[Good2Golf]

And there it is. The PM of Japan just announced from the podium that the US & Japan will be co-operating on the O&G file. There's one of Carney's customers gone. Thanks trudeau/guilbeault…

Doesn’t mean Canada can’t pull its head out of its ass and also work with Japan (and other Asian countries), but that will clearly need Trudeau gone and Carney needs to signal that he won’t be an O&G hater after he’s appointed PM…

 

[The Bread Guy]

Approve Northern Gateway ...

Is the proponent even interested in resurrecting the project 9 years later? And would all the paperwork have to be done over again? Not questioning the need, just the private sector will at this point in time.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Approve Northern Gateway, bring Energy East only as far as Sarina, since Ontario has no issue with Western Canadian Select, and then consume in Ontario. I’d also branch Energy East up to Churchill, so MB can participate in helping Alberta get its oil and gas to market.

My goal would be to get it down east to Irving, then cut their shipments of foreign oil. Start cutting the heart out of the Laurentien Elites, whose fortunes are predicated on shares in foreign oil companies and countries.

Irving already gets it supply from tankers. Maybe those ships should just come from Churchhill

 

[Good2Golf]

Is the proponent even interested in resurrecting the project 9 years later? And would all the paperwork have to be done over again? Not questioning the need, just the private sector will at this point in time.

If a responsible government indicated it was supportive of appropriate energy investment, most likely. But what did industry see when JT & Co. rolled into town in 2015? Cancellations and policy of explicitly reducing Canada’s O&G output. I wouldn’t have bailed too. Canadian government needs to rebuild trust with the energy sector.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Iowa and Nebraska are going to be real happy. The US/ Japan just said they have a deal for ethanol also. That's made from corn if anyone didn't know that. O&G and now agriculture.

Japan has only been in the White House today for a few hours. Two energy deals waiting for contracts and logistics.

 

[Good2Golf]

My goal would be to get it down east to Irving, then cut their shipments of foreign oil. Start cutting the heart out of the Laurentien Elites, whose fortunes are predicated on shares in foreign oil companies and countries.

Irving already gets it supply from tankers. Maybe those ships should just come from Churchhill

I’d support Churchill-Saint John shipping. Shipping is safe. *It works for Quebec, so it’s gotta be okay for an MB-NB deal, right?

 

[foresterab]

Random thinking last night of past times in Northern Ontario.

What happens if Canada goes to the US and dusts off the old plans to expand the lock sizes for the St. Lawrence Seaway? This would be a bi-national win allowing for larger shipping direct into the US cities of Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, and others...

Now combine that with oil storage depot in Thunder Bay or Sault Ste. Marie (due to rail line bottlenecks there). Add a second into Churchill. I get that it won't be a Panamax sized super tanker but is it worth the expansion from 1950's era Great Lake shipping limits to help increase product flow?

TransMountain is public saying shipping costs for product down that line is around ~$10/barrel CAD.

There is currently ~$14/barrel USD difference between WCS (~59 USD) and WTI (~ 71 USD) oil grades or a 17% difference in savings. That's also the equivalent to $20 CAD. If you're comparing it to European Brent crude its' about 5% more at ~ 74 USD.

Even if you doubled your transportation costs for WCS to a terminal you're still 10% cheaper than WTI oil. How much infrastructure pays off if that is the price gain long term in both employment, revenue gains (royalties), market tolls, and increased taxes?

 

[McG]

Approve Northern Gateway, bring Energy East only as far as Sarina, since Ontario has no issue with Western Canadian Select, and then consume in Ontario. I’d also branch Energy East up to Churchill, so MB can participate in helping Alberta get its oil and gas to market.

Sarnia is an awkward location to reach as the pipeline must go through Michigan or (to stay in Canada) the long way around Lake Huron. Reasonable if the objective is to connect to existing refinery infrastructure. If the intent is just to put product on boats, maybe aim for Cornwall.

 

[Kirkhill]

View attachment 91058
An artist's conception of the proposed LNG floating liquefaction plant planned to be built near Kitimat, B.C. It is one of the 18 projects the provincial government plans to fast track. Photo by Cedar LNG

Amid U.S. tariff threat, B.C. to fast-track 18 mining and energy projects worth $20B

The list includes mining projects criticized by First Nations groups in B.C. and Alaska, and an LNG project opposed by environmentalists

nationalpost.com

View attachment 91061
Prodigy Clean Energy and its partners hope to produce floating nuclear power stations that, like in this illustration, could dock in remote Arctic communities and supply less emissions-intensive power than the diesel-fired plants they use now.Supplied by Prodigy Clean Energy

Can floating nuclear power plants help solve Northern Canada’s energy woes?

Diesel is the only way to keep the lights on in many remote Arctic towns. A new project wants to offer a greener option – but first it has to assuage safety and cost concerns and compete with renewables

www.theglobeandmail.com

So, if they can contemplate floating SMRs behind berm in ice-infested arctic waters why not float an LNG plant off shore in Hudson's or James Bay? With or without the SMR?

....

Extend the shipping season

View attachment 91062

Double Acting Tanker. The Christophe de Margerie-class ice-breaking LNG carriers are built by DSME (Daewo Shipbuilding Marine Engineering) for the Yamal LNG project. Image courtesy of Dmitrii Lobusov​

View attachment 91063

Double Acting Tanker Tempera in ice condition 1​

....

A response to a niggle....

I am a fan of the Hudson's Bay route. I have been challenged as to the practicability of the route and technology and the associated risk.

Which got me to thinking about Dome Pete (Dome Petroleum) and their operations in the Beaufort and the Mackenzie Delta in the 1970s (1950-1988)



We used to have the know-how.



Jack Gallagher: By Unknown - Original publication: Unknown Immediate source: Glenbow Museum, Fair use, File:Jack Gallagher (oilman).jpg - Wikipedia

Vard Marine's 40th: Our Origins Part 1

In honour of our 40th anniversary, we thought it would be fitting to go back to our roots and tell the untold story of how Vard Marine came to be. It is a tale of our company before it was known as Vard Marine, a tale of hardship and failure but also of hope and success, and a tale of the significan

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