CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[The Bread Guy]

Of course not. However, if Canada is unaware of the hotspots, where they can be placed, we deserve to have our asses handed to us.

Agreed. That said, what's your read re: how it'll be taken by POTUS47 if CAN offers increased surveillance with AFVs at hot spots, compared to 10K troops MEX coughed up? I suspect that's not "deal" enough.

 

[Quirky]

Oh Canada! Showing weakness with a defeatist attitude is not the way to start negotiations.

“We are all in this together.” - Justin Trudeau 2025.

 

[QV]

The LPC wants a fight with Trump. It plays well to Canadian anti-American and anti-Trump sentiment and will no doubt boost them in the polls. Any changes that need to be made to avoid a tariff war would be admission the LPC has been doing things badly for ten years.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Xactly. I doubt TD demanded changes to US banking laws in exchange for their access. The US banks need to do the same. Conform.

TD has been slapped - hard - because they had lack money laundering practices in place, both in Canada and the US.

The grass is NOT greening on our side of the border in terms of banking. Its an Oligarchy here, just like our telecoms and passenger air travel and we PAY for this lack of competition.

 

[Remius]

TD has been slapped - hard - because they had lack money laundering practices in place, both in Canada and the US.

The grass is NOT greening on our side of the border in terms of banking. It’s an Oligarchy here, just like our telecoms and passenger air travel and we PAY for this lack of competition.

Monopoly.

 

[QV]

TD has been slapped - hard - because they had lack money laundering practices in place, both in Canada and the US.

The grass is NOT greening on our side of the border in terms of banking. Its an Oligarchy here, just like our telecoms and passenger air travel and we PAY for this lack of competition.

Biggest fine in US banking history IIRC.

 

[brihard]

Enough to cover the border in question?

Edited to add: We also have surveillance airframes of more than one type, and I don't know how busy they may be at any given moment, but I very vaguely remember reading on the boards here about potential legal issues re: military hardware surveilling in Canada. Happy to hear more on that from those who'd be in the know & able to share publicly. Same question re: surveillance using army stuff. TIA

From a practical standpoint, the Canada-US border is nearly three times as long as the Mexico-US border, and in the winter months is much less amendable to static presence and patrolling. The Mexico-US border also has the advantage that 2/3 or so is the Rio Grande, a very useful physical barrier from a border enforcement standpoint.

That’s not to say border monitoring and surveillance of Can-U.S. cannot be done; just that if the Mexico border is the “easy” level, ours is “hard” from the standpoint of physical geography. We have immense swaths of land where one can just walk across, and if surveillance or a checkpoint pops up, you go east or west a couple km.

As for the legalities of a CAF Aid to the Civil Power or other assistance to police, others here can better speak to it. We’re dealing with border enforcement and spotting things, not really search or seizure or technical evidence gathering that would implicate section 8 Charter protections and that are largely the realm of peace officers. CAF assets could certainly help spot crossings. Realistically, given how close to the border you can get by road in many places and that the U.S. focus is traffic south, this would probably be at its most useful if we were informing American authorities of traffic headed south. Someone in the Canadian side simply heading towards the border probably hasn’t done anything arrestable. And CAF members would have no lawful detention or arrest authority unless something special was put in place.

There are things CAF could bring to the table, but it’s not a simple matter of sending 2 PPCLI to form extended line at Emerson and stop people crossing.

 

[The Bread Guy]

From a practical standpoint, the Canada-US border is nearly three times as long as the Mexico-US border, and in the winter months is much less amendable to static presence and patrolling. The Mexico-US border also has the advantage that 2/3 or so is the Rio Grande, a very useful physical barrier from a border enforcement standpoint.

That’s not to say border monitoring and surveillance of Can-U.S. cannot be done; just that if the Mexico border is the “easy” level, ours is “hard” from the standpoint of physical geography. We have immense swaths of land where one can just walk across, and if surveillance or a checkpoint pops up, you go east or west a couple km.

As for the legalities of a CAF Aid to the Civil Power or other assistance to police, others here can better speak to it. We’re dealing with border enforcement and spotting things, not really search or seizure or technical evidence gathering that would implicate section 8 Charter protections and that are largely the realm of peace officers. CAF assets could certainly help spot crossings. Realistically, given how close to the border you can get by road in many places and that the U.S. focus is traffic south, this would probably be at its most useful if we were informing American authorities of traffic headed south. Someone in the Canadian side simply heading towards the border probably hasn’t done anything arrestable. And CAF members would have no lawful detention or arrest authority unless something special was put in place.

Thx for a bit more of the rest of the story.

There are things CAF could bring to the table, but it’s not a simple matter of sending 2 PPCLI to form extended line at Emerson and stop people crossing.

I didn't figure that - although on some socials, some people seem to think it's as "simple" as essentially doing that with CBSA

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Agreed. That said, what's your read re: how it'll be taken by POTUS47 if CAN offers increased surveillance with AFVs at hot spots, compared to 10K troops MEX coughed up? I suspect that's not "deal" enough.

I'm not sure. That's why we need to sit down and act calmly and purposefully. We need to look them in the eye and ask what they want and what we have in our power to honestly and urgently give.

Canada couldn't muster 2000 troops, never mind 10,000. We need another angle.

Maybe trudeau should offer Trump the purchase of 20-30 Predator drones, strictly to fly the border, during the phone call. We already have US ones flying the corridor where I am.

 

[Remius]

I'm not sure. That's why we need to sit down and act calmly and purposefully. We need to look them in the eye and ask what they want and what we have in our power to honestly and urgently give.

Canada couldn't muster 2000 troops, never mind 10,000. We need another angle.

The US sent thousands of troops to the southern border because they think it’s serious.

What has been sent north?

This is why I think the border issue is purely to get his emergency to do something he normally can’t do without one.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The US sent thousands of troops to the southern border because they think it’s serious.

What has been sent north?

This is why I think the border issue is purely to get his emergency to do something he normally can’t do without one.

Maybe he just wants to see how serious we are. Things like this are normal in the world of wheeling dealing, negotiation and deal making. Trump has plenty of reason to distrust trudeau.

He hasn’t built a wall up here either. Should he do that also?

Maybe after trudeau finishes turning Canada into Mexico, we can have the same amenities the US offers Mexico.

 

[Kirkhill]

Enough to cover the border in question?

Edited to add: We also have surveillance airframes of more than one type, and I don't know how busy they may be at any given moment, but I very vaguely remember reading on the boards here about potential legal issues re: military hardware surveilling in Canada. Happy to hear more on that from those who'd be in the know & able to share publicly. Same question re: surveillance using army stuff. TIA

Facetiously I suggested parking a Leo at each land port only to be informed there were 117 ports and we have less than 80 Leos.

On the other hand we have something like 5-600 LAVs but only 66(?) of them are LRSS types. But the ISC, CP and FOV types could be useful.

How about the TAPVs? As long as they are moving anywhere. A couple of hundred ROWS with EO/IR suites.

 

[QV]

Premier Doug Ford has announced that Ontario will be blocking US companies out of bidding on provincial contracts, potentially a loss of $10b a year in business (something something trade balance). He’s also ‘ripping up’ Ontario’s $100m contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink to provide satellite internet to more remote parts of Ontario.

Ontario rips up $100M Starlink contract ahead of U.S. tariffs

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is announcing that the province will rip up its $100 million contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s incoming 25 per cent tariffs.

www.ctvnews.ca

Ford is making irrational moves (mainly to appear tough). This will bite him back.

 

[QV]

Trump called trudeau this morning and said he'd call back at 15:00.

A good guess would be that Trump said "Here's how we can avoid this. Think about it. I'll call back at three. You give me your answer." Trudeau gathers his three or four advisers, Butts, Telford, Carney and says "What do you think?"

I guess we'll find out how serious they take it at 3 o'clock.

How many RFI have now gone out to CAF and RCMP about border security this morning? "How many people can we get on the border by tomorrow? I need an answer by 1455hrs!"

Probably not exactly like that - but I'm guessing Trump said exactly what he wants to see and Trudeau is now seeing if it can/should be done.

 

[Remius]

Maybe he just wants to see how serious we are. Things like this are normal in the world of wheeling dealing, negotiation and deal making.

This isn’t normal.

Trump has plenty of reason to distrust trudeau.

Sure. I won’t argue that.

He hasn’t built a wall up here either. Should he do that also?

Exactly my point. If the northern border was as serious as they say they’d do something commensurate with that. But they haven’t.

Maybe after trudeau finishes turning Canada into Mexico, we can have the same amenities the US offers Mexico.

Assuming he keeps moving the gosl posts.

Seems that every time Canada tries to address a concern something changes.

 

[mariomike]

This is why I think the border issue is purely to get his emergency to do something he normally can’t do without one.

Like what?

 

[Remius]

How many RFI have now gone out to CAF and RCMP about border security this morning? "How many people can we get on the border by tomorrow? I need an answer by 1455hrs!"

Probably not exactly like that - but I'm guessing Trump said exactly what he wants to see and Trudeau is now seeing if it can/should be done.

You are making an assumption that didn’t already happen when they made that request the first time a couple of months ago.

 

[Remius]

Like what?

Like tariffs

 

[YZT580]

Agreed. That said, what's your read re: how it'll be taken by POTUS47 if CAN offers increased surveillance with AFVs at hot spots, compared to 10K troops MEX coughed up? I suspect that's not "deal" enough.

we don't have 10,000 troops to station on the border! Oops, I forgot, that is his other beef: 2% to the armed forces

 

[foresterab]

Part of the issue for me is that while there is a lot of talk about physical presence at the border - and I'll let the CBSA, RCMP and CAF argue on the best role to manage that piece what is not being talked about is the financial side.

When I think of the BC report on money laundering by gangs via casinos and real estate...https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/justice/anti-money-laundering/reports and the estimate 5% of real estate value in BC being affected....that's a huge issue. I know I'm picking on BC but when the rumor back home (Alberta here) is that the largest drug distributor locally is also the biggest real estate agent...makes you wonder how wide spread the issue is. And it's not just Mexican or Chinese gangs but local Canadian gangs involved.

So how to combat these challenges if 10,000 troops is not practical?
1) Need parliament operating.

2) Ensure there's no turf war silos and ensure that both intelligence re cross border movements is shared and ACTION taken by all parties involved.

3) Look very seriously at real estate/casino laundering situations. It is my understanding we have a hodge podge mix of provincial registries that do not align with tax reporting/national registraries making it very easy to shift funds around. An example of such changes is shown here: Recommendation 13The BC Minister of Finance should recommend to her federal counterpart that the Proceedsof Crime (Money Laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act be amended to add mortgage lendersChapter 8:Analysis andRecommendationsCombatting Money Laundering in BC Real Estate84 Expert Panel on Money Laundering in BC Real Estateand mortgage intermediaries to the list of reporting entities, in addition to the entitiesrecommended by the Standing Committee on Finance. taken from https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/h...-in-bc/combatting-money-laundering-report.pdf

4) Look seriously at our deportation laws. We currently have what appears to my eyes as "good faith" or voluntary deportation laws. And then you have the US chartering military flights to evict illegal residents. It's a very different message and while I fully understand we have different processes and good faith review of each file is needed I still find it very weak that those convicted of crimes are allowed to stay. With some estimates as to improper Canadian residents (illegal border crossings + overstayed visas) at 500,000 Nearly half of Canadians favour mass deportations and 65% think there are too many immigrants: poll that's a huge number for the country. Note I do have sympathy for those who have applied and are awaiting long delayed documents from the government (aka following the rules) but I don't have much sympathy for those trying to cut the line or breaking them.

anyways...Monday morning thoughts while I wait for coffee to kick in.