CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Kirkhill]

Trump is trying to save US industry because this policy is such a massive disaster, but the elevated level of uncertainty is not going to change. Just the uncertainty and the threat of tariffs alone can spark a recession, which is already likely coming.

I would personally like to see Canada hold firm until this issue is dropped and concluded, otherwise 30 days from now we'll be wondering again and still suffering from uncertainty.

I guess we'll see shortly if our politicians decide to keep playing or hold firm. Hard to really know what is the best answer for Canadians overall.

I expect the uncertainty to continue at least until we get a new prime minister and likely until we have another election and speech from the throne.

Only a new budget will address the defence issue and while it is nigh on impossible to know what Trump is serious about defence seems to be one constant.

With a new defence commitment and PM Trump might slow down on the game playing.

 

[lenaitch]

Trump bluster. Being the tough guy/ bully on the block.

So you think this is something that is possible? You think he can just crash our economy and just take us over? No international laws in the way? No world opinion. Even if it were possible, Trump would be dead of old age before it happened. We could easily have diversified our trade by then, negating the threat. No matter what he thinks he can do, he can't do it without agreement from us. With us as a new voting block, the Republicans can probably forget about ever getting in power again.
California has 39 million people, Canada 40 million. California has 2 Senators and 52 House Representatives. The most of any state. Do you honestly think they will give us that much power? Beside taking an act of Congress to increase the House count?

Even if we agreed, it would still take years to complete. Trump says we'd pay no taxes? I'm sure all the other states would go for that 100% while they keep paying them.

It's a false threat. If you don't fall for the hyperbolic rhetoric, there's nothing in it. If you don't agree with that assessment, tell me how he could make it happen in his term. Tell me how he could surpass all the negotiations, laws and conditions in order to annex us.

I'll wait and see what happens when the rhetoric calms down and we get into the nuts and bolts of trade talks. Baseless threats don't figure into it for me.

I agree that it is unlikely, but that's the mindset we are dealing with. If the strategic goal is to wreck our economy, but he only damages it, is that a win for us?

World history is full of people who took the position that other people or other countries should no longer exist. In some cases, the world waited too long to realize they were serious.

 

[GK .Dundas]

I doubt Donnie cares what we spend on Defence except to use it as a cudgel..
Strangely enough it's one of the few things where he really does have something real.
The only reason he doesn't hammer us using that more often is I think for what ever reason he's uncomfortable using real hard provable facts. As opposed to what ever just pops into his head at 5 am. when he's on social media.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Anyone want to bet Trump forced Trudeau to 2% or more defence spending?

Like so many leaders in the Western world? Canada aint that special - he bullies everyone.

 

[Remius]

Just breaking: A one month reprieve on Canada as well, to April 2nd. Not sure if is CUSMA trade only or across the board.

Looks like CUSMA things.

Ford doesn’t seem to care and is going ahead with his plans.

Ontario will keep U.S. booze off LCBO shelves and go ahead with energy tax despite one-month pause on tariffs on some goods

Ontario Premier Doug Ford tells CNN that the province will place a 25 per cent tariff on the electricity that it provides to 1.5 million homes and businesses in New York, Michigan and Minnesota as of Monday.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[McG]

At this point, i would not impose anything new but I also would not roll-back anything we already started. Hold where we are until the “pause” becomes a cancellation, or until the US escalates again.

 

[McG]

His address last night all but admitted that his "emergency" rationale for imposing tariffs was not legit.

Looking forward to legal challenges.

Is anyone making that legal challenge?

 

[QV]

Like so many leaders in the Western world? Canada aint that special - he bullies everyone.

Canada is America’s northern flank. Much more important than other random countries, from a defence standpoint.

 

[JLB50]

I think that they have to go along with Trump on the deferral until April 2 and if the Orange Menace again implements the Tariffs - we go hard on them - not 30$ billion out the gate but the full 185$ billion and whatever else we need to do.

With that being said - I'm hoping that somehow this gets worked out by then. By April 2, Trudeau will be gone, a new Red leader will be in place and quite possibly we'll be in the middle of an election (I mentioned on the LPC Leadership thread that I got a text from PP yesterday saying that the 'rumour' is that the election will be called on 16 March), and things might be put on hold by Trump because Trudeau is no longer around.

I do have to say, reading into my crystal ball, Trump has for 100% certain crushed Freeland's chance of being the Red leader. The Red's realise that Trump hates her and as a result they would be committing political suicide by electing her as leader. Again, just me reading my crystal ball.

The fact that Trump hates Freeland is definitely a point in her favour.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Our politicians and Premiers need to think some things through, such as this clever and dastardly plan to toll US trucking heading through BC to Alaska.
Does Eby think the US won’t toll trucks hauling products from Mexico to Canada?

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7476852

 

[GK .Dundas]

Canada is America’s northern flank. Much more important than other random countries, from a defence standpoint.

I glad you know that , the question is does Trump know that ?
God knows most Canadian Governments and by extension the Canadian people seem to have a hard time wrapping their heads around that little detail.

 

[Kirkhill]

How big a tanker can we bring in? Is the whole route of sufficient depth to bring in something really big?

I don't want to divert this thread any further but I do want to answer this question.




Without knowing for certain for sure I am going to guess and assume that the red-hulled freighter in front is one of Fed Nav's fleet.


Sorry for the quality of the image but the ship at the dock looks very similar to the line sketch shown here

Fednav- www.fednav.com

Fednav excels in navigating the Canadian Arctic, Great Lakes, and St. Lawrence Seaway. With a fleet of 120 dry bulk carriers, we ensure seamless worldwide shipping.

www.fednav.com

Her length is 199.98 m overall, has a beam of 32.26 m and draws 12.95 m laden (saltwater summer draft). Her Lakes Draft is 8.08 m.

The Double Acting Tankers I referenced earlier, Tempera and Mastera, are 252 m LOA, 44 m on the beam and draw 14.5 to 15.3 m.

Although there is a 12 m approach through the narrows at the mouth of the harbour, and the wharf is dredged to as low 11.4 m the majority of the harbour is in the 5 to 8 m depth so those vessels would have to transit light. Or the harbour would have to be improved.

 

[QV]

I glad you know that , the question is does Trump know that ?
God knows most Canadian Governments and by extension the Canadian people seem to have a hard time wrapping their heads around that little detail.

Pretend for a moment Trump doesn't know that... his inner circle and the high level folks in his defence department advising him do know that. Canada getting serious on defence and arctic security means a little less for the Americans to worry and spend on it. And that would probably translate to easing the economic assault on us.

 

[Haggis]

Agreed, they started this so I would up my demands, want it to end? all Tariffs dropped and we want a 50% reduction in illegal guns, drugs and people coming into canada.

No need. Public Safety Canada is announcing more domestic gun control measures tomorrow at 1:00 PM.

Remember, too, that Trump is vocally pro 2A and would probably tell our government our illegal gun problem could be solved with more legal guns from America and a "proper set of gun rights".

 

[Navy_Pete]

Pretend for a moment Trump doesn't know that... his inner circle and the high level folks in his defence department advising him do know that. Canada getting serious on defence and arctic security means a little less for the Americans to worry and spend on it. And that would probably translate to easing the economic assault on us.

No it doesn't, because he doesn't listen to his advisors, and a few commercial icebreakers painted grey are not any kind of serious defence (or even monitoring).

I expect a lot of the DOGE cuts are specifically intended for personal enrichment of a select few by pushing work to their companies, or by doing things like widespread market shorting ahead of fuckery.

 

[QV]

No it doesn't, because he doesn't listen to his advisors, and a few commercial icebreakers painted grey are not any kind of serious defence (or even monitoring).

I expect a lot of the DOGE cuts are specifically intended for personal enrichment of a select few by pushing work to their companies, or by doing things like widespread market shorting ahead of fuckery.

Yeah well when I say "serious on defence" I mean spending 2% or more and achieving actual meaningful military capabilities to the benefit of mutual NA defence. A few barely armed ice breakers is a joke.

As to the rest of your post, it's just garbage unfounded speculation.

 

[dapaterson]

No need. Public Safety Canada is announcing more domestic gun control measures tomorrow at 1:00 PM.

Remember, too, that Trump is vocally pro 2A and would probably tell our government our illegal gun problem could be solved with more legal guns from America and a "proper set of gun rights".

Or proper insurance. You own a firearm? You are responsible for it until you legally dispose of it. Your insurance premiums reflect that responsibility.

It's smuggled across the border? The last seller can be sued in Canadian courts.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I don't want to divert this thread any further but I do want to answer this question.


View attachment 91738

Without knowing for certain for sure I am going to guess and assume that the red-hulled freighter in front is one of Fed Nav's fleet.

View attachment 91739
Sorry for the quality of the image but the ship at the dock looks very similar to the line sketch shown here

Fednav- www.fednav.com

Fednav excels in navigating the Canadian Arctic, Great Lakes, and St. Lawrence Seaway. With a fleet of 120 dry bulk carriers, we ensure seamless worldwide shipping.

www.fednav.com

Her length is 199.98 m overall, has a beam of 32.26 m and draws 12.95 m laden (saltwater summer draft). Her Lakes Draft is 8.08 m.

The Double Acting Tankers I referenced earlier, Tempera and Mastera, are 252 m LOA, 44 m on the beam and draw 14.5 to 15.3 m.

Although there is a 12 m approach through the narrows at the mouth of the harbour, and the wharf is dredged to as low 11.4 m the majority of the harbour is in the 5 to 8 m depth so those vessels would have to transit light. Or the harbour would have to be improved.

Churchill River is a freshwater river and not open 12 months.
Additionally, Hudson’s Bat swirls counter clockwise, bringing salted water up the Nelson River. And that’s where your port should be. Alas we already knew that, started a project more 100 years ago, didn’t fix mush it due to WW1 and never got back to it. Port Nelson…

DAUDRICH: The case for Port Nelson, rather than Churchill

As a 42-year resident of Churchill, MB, I’ve read several decades-worth of various opinions of the Port of Churchill and the condition of the rail line. Here ar

www.westernstandard.news

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Yeah well when I say "serious on defence" I mean spending 2% or more and achieving actual meaningful military capabilities to the benefit of mutual NA defence. A few barely armed ice breakers is a joke.

As to the rest of your post, it's just garbage unfounded speculation.

Most of the opinions in the CANUSA threads are speculation and best guesses. Mine and yours included.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I think that they have to go along with Trump on the deferral until April 2 and if the Orange Menace again implements the Tariffs - we go hard on them - not 30$ billion out the gate but the full 185$ billion and whatever else we need to do.

With that being said - I'm hoping that somehow this gets worked out by then. By April 2, Trudeau will be gone, a new Red leader will be in place and quite possibly we'll be in the middle of an election (I mentioned on the LPC Leadership thread that I got a text from PP yesterday saying that the 'rumour' is that the election will be called on 16 March), and things might be put on hold by Trump because Trudeau is no longer around.

I do have to say, reading into my crystal ball, Trump has for 100% certain crushed Freeland's chance of being the Red leader. The Red's realise that Trump hates her and as a result they would be committing political suicide by electing her as leader. Again, just me reading my crystal ball.

Don't count trudeau out yet. He still has his transition period before Carney officially takes over. It wouldn't surprise me if the transition lasted until Carney wins a riding and can appear in the House himself. Trudeau won't disappear anyway. He's still the elected MP for his riding. All we can really hope for is an April general election.