CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[brihard]

I don’t

I don’t know why we haven’t countered by telling them to stop the flow of illegal aliens into Canada. And the tons of meth and cocaine. And the thousands of illegal guns. Put tariffs on them until trump complies. I don’t see why we both can't play the same stupid game.

Agreed that we should be flagging those issues as part of the dialogue- but since we aren’t dealing with an opposite party who’s acting in good faith, it’s moot anyway.

I did note with interest that the Mexican president, in her announcement about the month’s reprieve, mentioned the flow of guns south.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Imt

I agree about Trudeau not doing as much as he should. I only hope that the person who becomes our next post-election Prime Minister does A LOT MORE than Trudeau has done. Not a Doug Ford fan but I think if he were PM, he would do a lot more. Similarly, as I’ve indicated on another thread, if Wab Kinew weren’t in the NDP, he would have the potential to become a very decisive PM. You and I differ in some ways but do share some commonalities.

I think Poliviere will do just fine. As soon as we get the red and orange liberals out of the way.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Agreed that we should be flagging those issues as part of the dialogue- but since we aren’t dealing with an opposite party who’s acting in good faith, it’s moot anyway.

I did note with interest that the Mexican president, in her announcement about the month’s reprieve, mentioned the flow of guns south.

Perhaps a subcommittee should call obama and holder on that one?

 

[MilEME09]

I don’t

I don’t know why we haven’t countered by telling them to stop the flow of illegal aliens into Canada. And the tons of meth and cocaine. And the thousands of illegal guns. Put tariffs on them until trump complies. I don’t see why we both can't play the same stupid game.

Agreed, they started this so I would up my demands, want it to end? all Tariffs dropped and we want a 50% reduction in illegal guns, drugs and people coming into canada.

 

[lenaitch]

I have to disagree.

Montreal is Canada's original company town. It was founded at the pinch point of La Chine and the confluences of the Ottawa, the St-Laurent and the Richelieu.

York Factory was founded by a couple of French Huguenots who got fed up paying the Montreal tariffs on their furs. They didn't like the taxes the French King was charging on their work so Radisson and Groseilliers went to fellow French Huguenots taking refuge in London and convinced them to finance a new venture under the protection of the King of Scots and England.

York Factory, and the other HBC forts were built expressly to bypass Montreal and deny France the tax revenues on the fur trade. The French objected.

1763 the French lost and a new entity entered the picture. A bunch of greedy Scots allied with the French and established the Northwest Company operating out of Montreal, giving birth to the Golden Square Mile, home of the Trudeaus and McGills among others. That colony prospered and raised the Canadian banks, railways and shipping lines.

1867 and John A MacDonald knits the country together with a railway financed out of Montreal. When he "bought" Ruperts Land he directed the flow of trade through Montreal, to the benefit of the Golden Square Mile and the St Lawrence Valley. That was his National Policy.

The HBC ports competed with that flow. And were allowed to atrophy.

This was to the detriment of the Western Provinces. In the absence of alternative markets they remain what they were intended to be: colonies of Montreal. They would be the hewers of wood and drawers of water, supplying food and raw materials for the smiths and mechanics of the St Lawrence.

The HBC ports are perfectly viable ports, given cargoes of appropriate values. They were viable for the best part of 300 years. They can be viable again. Especially with the advances in technology currently available.

...

I wouldn't put down the hewers of wood and drawers of water. They pay a lot of your bills. And they can make you a lot of profits in the future which you can invest in other fields of endeavour. And fund a decent security service to protect our assets.

Not wanting to re-hash or prolong the Port of Churchill debate, but I think the viability of any site needs to stand on contemporary merits, not those from the age of freighter canoes and sail.

 

[lenaitch]

When trudeau steps up to the mic and tells the world that Trump is trying to crash our economy in order to annex us, that is scaremongering.

So when Trump says he will use "economic force" to annex Canada, he's just funnin', being misquoted or taken out of context?

And when Poilievre pushes back against the annexation claim, he's not scaremongering?

I'm confused.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Per CNBC, Lutnick is now saying - on top of prior comments about auto exemptions and agricultural exemptions - that all USMCA goods and services will probably be tariff exempt for another month.

It’s more backpedaling, but it’s backpedaling to a point of compliance with the existing lawful trade agreement. Definitely a good thing.

I don't know how badly the US can hurt Canada in terms of trade and tariffs but a Trump-lead USA can't be trusted.

If Canada was attacked by Russia tomorrow Trump would start trying to negotiate with Canada in exchange for help. Contracts, agreements, and laws mean nothing to him.

Ideally going forward we go out of our way to to business anywhere else.

 

[JLB50]

Agreed that we should be flagging those issues as part of the dialogue- but since we aren’t dealing with an opposite party who’s acting in good faith, it’s moot anyway.

I did note with interest that the Mexican president, in her announcement about the month’s reprieve, mentioned the flow of guns south.

At least she’s saying more than Governor Trudeau.

 

[Czech_pivo]

What's interesting is that once again the US stock markets are not buying what Trump is selling. They do not feel that this issue is being addressed correctly nor to they feel that a path forward with stability is occurring.

If you have it close where its at right now, at 3:07pm, the Dow at -496 and the NASDAQ at -478 points and something similar occurs tomorrow - expect Trump to be moving on Monday with some urgency in fixing this tariff f*ck-up.

The big boys are losing money and they won't sit quietly in the corner sipping their gin & tonics.

 

[Jarnhamar]

If you have it close where its at right now, at 3:07pm, the Dow at -496 and the NASDAQ at -478 points

What does this mean for someone who hasn't watched Wolf of Wallstreet?

 

[Mills Bomb]

So when Trump says he will use "economic force" to annex Canada, he's just funnin', being misquoted or taken out of context?

And when Poilievre pushes back against the annexation claim, he's not scaremongering?

I'm confused.

That's right. Even though it's Trump saying he will use "economic force" to annex Canada, we're gonna twist this around say Trudeau is "scare mongering" (Sarcasm of course).

Those who pay close attention to the news will remember pre- 24 Feb 2022 that many Ukrainians believed the invasion was "scare mongering" and wasn't going to happen. That didn't age well, but that's the sort of thing that happens when you bury your head in the sand.

Most pro-Trump supporters like to say "He's just talking, he's not serious" and try to downplay the crazy stuff he says.

And yet, when he says things they want to hear, that is 100% truth in their eyes.

We won't know the truth about Trump's intent for Canada for a while. And there's a lot of unpredictable things that could happen in the meantime. But when a superpower threatens to invade their neighbour, ignoring it is the real definition of putting your head in the sand. Especially when said neighbour cuts off support for a small country being invaded by a superpower.

I don't think it's just Trudeau "scare mongering" by simply discussing the fact Trump keeps saying he wants Canada to be part of the United States.

 

[brihard]

Just breaking: A one month reprieve on Canada as well, to April 2nd. Not sure if is CUSMA trade only or across the board.

 

[dangerboy]

Then in a month he will come up with another reason to put them back on.

 

[Czech_pivo]

What does this mean for someone who hasn't watched Wolf of Wallstreet?

Lol - well, first off all that stuff Jordan Belfort did (not the illegal stuff but the hookers, strippers, Dwarf tossing) I was too young to be lucky enough to experience.....

But in terms of dollars and cents - the US market 'paper' losses (meaning unrealized, not 'tangible') amount to over 4$ TRILLION USD in the stock market.

So, if some individual is highly margined (meaning he's using his existing stock market holdings in say 'Nvidia' (the large dominant player in the AI space) as collateral so that he can buy even more shares in that company or any other company that allows their shares to be margined, to try and make even more money - well then, that guys right now is having (most likely) his 'margin called' because his positions in Nvidia have fallen so much in value that he needs to bring large piles of cash into this account to 'right the sinking ship', so to speak.

The amount of 4$ Trillion in market loses over the last week or so is very substantial and won't be 'allowed' to continue because more and more and more and more margin calls will be happening - and that results in either those people having to sell at a loss other holdings to cover their margin losses or they have to pull cash very quickly out of something else and deposit that into their accounts - all of these things can very very easily result in a market crash of not -498 points being down but quite easily -1,498 points or -3,498 points and BAM - you have a market collapse and an instant recession.

 

[Good2Golf]

The fact that Trump has agreed to a months reprieve with Mexico and not Canada shows just how utterly bullshit the claim is that this has to do with fentanyl coming in. It’s such a complete lie.

Just breaking: A one month reprieve on Canada as well, to April 2nd. Not sure if is CUSMA trade only or across the board.

Then in a month he will come up with another reason to put them back on.

On the bus, off the bus, on the bus, off the bus…

 

[Mills Bomb]

Just breaking: A one month reprieve on Canada as well, to April 2nd. Not sure if is CUSMA trade only or across the board.

Trump is trying to save US industry because this policy is such a massive disaster, but the elevated level of uncertainty is not going to change. Just the uncertainty and the threat of tariffs alone can spark a recession, which is already likely coming.

I would personally like to see Canada hold firm until this issue is dropped and concluded, otherwise 30 days from now we'll be wondering again and still suffering from uncertainty.

I guess we'll see shortly if our politicians decide to keep playing or hold firm. Hard to really know what is the best answer for Canadians overall.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

So when Trump says he will use "economic force" to annex Canada, he's just funnin', being misquoted or taken out of context?

And when Poilievre pushes back against the annexation claim, he's not scaremongering?

I'm confused.

Trump bluster. Being the tough guy/ bully on the block.

So you think this is something that is possible? You think he can just crash our economy and just take us over? No international laws in the way? No world opinion. Even if it were possible, Trump would be dead of old age before it happened. We could easily have diversified our trade by then, negating the threat. No matter what he thinks he can do, he can't do it without agreement from us. With us as a new voting block, the Republicans can probably forget about ever getting in power again.
California has 39 million people, Canada 40 million. California has 2 Senators and 52 House Representatives. The most of any state. Do you honestly think they will give us that much power? Beside taking an act of Congress to increase the House count?

Even if we agreed, it would still take years to complete. Trump says we'd pay no taxes? I'm sure all the other states would go for that 100% while they keep paying them.

It's a false threat. If you don't fall for the hyperbolic rhetoric, there's nothing in it. If you don't agree with that assessment, tell me how he could make it happen in his term. Tell me how he could surpass all the negotiations, laws and conditions in order to annex us.

I'll wait and see what happens when the rhetoric calms down and we get into the nuts and bolts of trade talks. Baseless threats don't figure into it for me.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I think that they have to go along with Trump on the deferral until April 2 and if the Orange Menace again implements the Tariffs - we go hard on them - not 30$ billion out the gate but the full 185$ billion and whatever else we need to do.

With that being said - I'm hoping that somehow this gets worked out by then. By April 2, Trudeau will be gone, a new Red leader will be in place and quite possibly we'll be in the middle of an election (I mentioned on the LPC Leadership thread that I got a text from PP yesterday saying that the 'rumour' is that the election will be called on 16 March), and things might be put on hold by Trump because Trudeau is no longer around.

I do have to say, reading into my crystal ball, Trump has for 100% certain crushed Freeland's chance of being the Red leader. The Red's realise that Trump hates her and as a result they would be committing political suicide by electing her as leader. Again, just me reading my crystal ball.

Trump is trying to save US industry because this policy is such a massive disaster, but the elevated level of uncertainty is not going to change. Just the uncertainty and the threat of tariffs alone can spark a recession, which is already likely coming.

I would personally like to see Canada hold firm until this issue is dropped and concluded, otherwise 30 days from now we'll be wondering again and still suffering from uncertainty.

I guess we'll see shortly if our politicians decide to keep playing or hold firm. Hard to really know what is the best answer for Canadians overall.

 

[Brad Sallows]

What does this mean for someone who hasn't watched Wolf of Wallstreet?

If you bought stocks before they dropped and you sell now, you lose money.

If you have cash in hand, it might be a good time to buy stocks for which the share price has dipped.

 

[QV]

Just breaking: A one month reprieve on Canada as well, to April 2nd. Not sure if is CUSMA trade only or across the board.

Anyone want to bet Trump forced Trudeau to 2% or more defence spending?