Out of respect I had avoided commenting on his legacy until now. He achieved an astonishing political success, thanks in part to his energy, drive and personality. However, much of his success in Quebec, where he made truly astouding gains despite a slate of obscure non-entities, was because he pandered to Quebec nationalism. Specifically he evoked the NDP's Sherbrooke Declaration which repudiated the Clarity Act in favour of the 50 percent plus one option so favoured by the independence movement.
To take the party over the next hurdle, which would be to form government, it must at the least win the most seats in the next election. That to me means winning more than 30 seats from the Tories, which may be easier said than done. What about merging with the Liberals? Unfortunately the combined party would still require to take about the same number to gain power in a two party house. This second option depends on the willingness of the Liberals to go that route, which is by no means certain.
Now, what if a sovereigntist party gains power in Quebec and declares it will hold a referendum and not consider itself bound by the Clarity Act? How many NDP supporters, especially the soft social democrats would be willing to go along with that? And the NDP prospects are worse if no union with the Grits happens and it is in a minority position. It would be defeated in the House and then very likely would be crushed at the polls.
Another option is the Quebec support softening, which could move the party back into third place or worse. Even without out that, it still must more than double its support outside Quebec to win a majority.
There are a few other scenarios, none of which are any more attractive. It may be, that just as Pickett's Charge at Gettysburg was the high water mark of the Confederacy, the NDP has nowhere to go but down.
To take the party over the next hurdle, which would be to form government, it must at the least win the most seats in the next election. That to me means winning more than 30 seats from the Tories, which may be easier said than done. What about merging with the Liberals? Unfortunately the combined party would still require to take about the same number to gain power in a two party house. This second option depends on the willingness of the Liberals to go that route, which is by no means certain.
Now, what if a sovereigntist party gains power in Quebec and declares it will hold a referendum and not consider itself bound by the Clarity Act? How many NDP supporters, especially the soft social democrats would be willing to go along with that? And the NDP prospects are worse if no union with the Grits happens and it is in a minority position. It would be defeated in the House and then very likely would be crushed at the polls.
Another option is the Quebec support softening, which could move the party back into third place or worse. Even without out that, it still must more than double its support outside Quebec to win a majority.
There are a few other scenarios, none of which are any more attractive. It may be, that just as Pickett's Charge at Gettysburg was the high water mark of the Confederacy, the NDP has nowhere to go but down.
