2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[suffolkowner]

I think JT will run, and he will win another minority and that will be his last election.

I think he's just about the worst person to be and most divisive PM we've ever had. But I'm sure hes tired and would rather not put up with the BS anymore.

To sum up, 1 more and hes done.

I agree that he will run and probably win another minority. I also think the man is highly questionable from an ethical and moral standpoint but I'm not sold on the divisive part

Sometimes a dog has a day. I suppose it sucked when the great intellects of the LPC of the day (Dion, Ignatieff) fell to Harper.

The liberals had to lick their wounds until they hit on the winning show pony. The conservatives just need to find the right person from an electability standpoint. I don't know how Charest wins a leadership contest unless he manages to sign up a ton of new members. Is that allowed still? Pierre would seem to have an easier time winning the party leadership but I'm not sure how electable he is nationally.

The dark horse here has to be Patrick Brown a phenominal organiser and fundraiser that is very popular among the Punjabi population so much so that he was able to become Mayor of Brampton while under the cloud of sexual misconduct allegations when he wasn't even from Brampton. He could maybe provide that breakthrough the CPC is looking for. He might not be the best from an ethical standpoint or even from sheer intelligence but I think he's pretty good at finding good ideas from those around him

As an aside I've met Stephane Dion a few times and always found him to be pretty sharp and was very impressed with the conversations we had

 

[Altair]

Sometimes a dog has a day. I suppose it sucked when the great intellects of the LPC of the day (Dion, Ignatieff) fell to Harper.

It did.

Although I think everyone was aware that Dion and Ignatieff were wet noodles as leaders.

The assumption was it didnt matter who was leader of the LPC so long as everyone hated Harper as much as progressives did. The same mistake the CPC is making now.

 

[lenaitch]

Probably the worst PM in Canadian history.

Such a subjective statement, often couched in ideological terms rather than some kind of performance parameters. Even efforts to somehow employ objective measures end up with results all over the map depending on what guideposts are used. I mean, we've had 23; is he being compared with, say Diefenbaker or Bowell?

 

[brihard]

Just so you know, and you can block me now if you want, but I have a habit of reminding people of their awful hot takes months if not years later.

Everyone knows of your habit and nobody gives a shit.

 

[Dana381]

Must suck for the CPC to keep losing to the "worst PM in Canadian History".

But they didn't actually lose, CPC won the popular vote both times but thank to FPTP system LPC won. If I was Trudeau I would be worried that the next try would not go so nice.

 

[Altair]

But they didn't actually lose, CPC won the popular vote both times but thank to FPTP system LPC won. If I was Trudeau I would be worried that the next try would not go so nice.

Two things.

1st thing

What system could be used that the CPC would have won?

2nd thing

Running up the vote in places like Alberta where they are going to win every seat anyways isn't a great strategy under FPTP, but winning the popular vote is a nice participation trophy I suppose.

 

[Dana381]

My point was that more Canadians placed their x beside the CPC than the LPC candidate. That says that the election was closer than the seat count would suggest. If i was in Trudeau's shoes that would make me nervous about trying again.

 

[Good2Golf]

What system could be used that the CPC would have won?

The one that your glorious leader promised in 2015, then fuddle-duddled everyone who took him at his word.

Comme père, comme fils…

 

[brihard]

But they didn't actually lose, CPC won the popular vote both times but thank to FPTP system LPC won. If I was Trudeau I would be worried that the next try would not go so nice.

They did not elect a plurality or majority of members of parliament. They did not form government. Therefore they lost. The ‘popular vote’ argument is as stupid when the Conservatives up here use it now as it was when the Democrats in the US used it after 2016. What a victory is depends on the system in question. The Liberals elected the most members of Parliament and have been able to run a stable minority government by retaining the confidence of the House. The Conservatives’ goal was to form government, and they didn’t. That’s a loss. Forming official opposition could be argued a win for the NDP or Bloc based on where they otherwise land, but it’s simply not a claim the other viable contender for government can make.

 

[Altair]

The one that your glorious leader promised in 2015, then fuddle-duddled everyone who took him at his word.

Comme père, comme fils…

Ranked ballot? Do the CPC come ahead of the LPC or NDP in terms of second votes?

PR? Does the PM not have enough dance partners in the NDP and BLOC to govern/get a coalition?

MMP? Same as PR?

FPTP is the best shot the CPC has at winning an election.

 

[Dana381]

They did not elect a plurality or majority of members of parliament. They did not form government. Therefore they lost. The ‘popular vote’ argument is as stupid when the Conservatives up here use it now as it was when the Democrats in the US used it after 2016. What a victory is depends on the system in question. The Liberals elected the most members of Parliament and have been able to run a stable minority government by retaining the confidence of the House. The Conservatives’ goal was to form government, and they didn’t. That’s a loss. Forming official opposition could be argued a win for the NDP or Bloc based on where they otherwise land, but it’s simply not a claim the other viable contender for government can make.

I'm not arguing any of what you said. The CPC lost fair and square. The popular vote does however show that the election was closer than it appeared.

 

[brihard]

I'm not arguing any of what you said. The CPC lost fair and square. The popular vote does however show that the election was closer than it appeared.

Ok. You went from “didn’t actually lose” to “lost fair and square”, so we aren’t disagreed on that point anymore.

The CPC face the perennial challenge of vote efficiency. The LPC are better at getting just enough in more places. The CPC court the prairies way too heavily, and lose out to the rapidly diminishing rate of return that comes from pandering to the social conservative element. They need to wrap their heads around if they want to govern again. I friggin’ wish they’d get a move on doing so.

 

[Good2Golf]

I'm not arguing any of what you said. The CPC lost fair and square. The popular vote does however show that the election was closer than it appeared.

There is no denying that the LPC has figured out just how much ‘tactical win’ it needs in each riding to get the seat. Most seats generally gets to makes the pitch to the GH to form the government.

That said, it’s also quite true to say that the greatest amount of Canadians voted for the conservatives. That and $1.91 will get yours Timmies large double-double…

 

[Navy_Pete]

If only the CPC had a chance to reform the electoral system....

They continue to lose because they are stuck in the same failing strategy of courting the outliers. I think the pandering to the freedumb convoy will come back to bite them in the ass next time they go to the polls as well in the form of shots of their MPs with someone with a confederate or similar flag behind them.

I really don't get it, committing harder to a failing strategy won't make it work better. I figured an opportunistic career politician would have figured that out before jumping on the bonfire, but I've resigned myself to the CPC being the Leafs of federal politics who excel at seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. Maybe this year will be the year!

 

[Dana381]

Ok. You went from “didn’t actually lose” to “lost fair and square”, so we aren’t disagreed on that point anymore.

The CPC face the perennial challenge of vote efficiency. The LPC are better at getting just enough in more places. The CPC court the prairies way too heavily, and lose out to the rapidly diminishing rate of return that comes from pandering to the social conservative element. They need to wrap their heads around if they want to govern again. I friggin’ wish they’d get a move on doing so.

You are right, what I meant when I said that they didn't actually lose is that they won more votes. I realize that our system is flawed, but all systems are flawed in one way or another. I didn't mean to re-open the debate of the fairness of the election and I should have been more clear.

My point was and still is the vote results show that the election was closer than the seat count indicates and he has to be considering that when his is considering re-offering.

 

[Altair]

You are right, what I meant when I said that they didn't actually lose is that they won more votes. I realize that our system is flawed, but all systems are flawed in one way or another. I didn't mean to re-open the debate of the fairness of the election and I should have been more clear.

My point was and still is the vote results show that the election was closer than the seat count indicates and he has to be considering that when his is considering re-offering.

The election was closer than the vote result shows, but not in the way youre thinking.

Liberals needed 10 more seats to hit 170.

1
Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley

CPC 17,336-LPC 17,312=34

2
NL
Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame

CPC 14,925-LPC 14,661= 264

3
Châteauguay-Lacolle

BQ 18,368-LPC 17,762=602

4
King-Vaughan

CPC 22,529-LPC 21,457=1022

5
Longueuil-Saint-Hubert

BQ 23,579-LPC 21,930=1,649

6
South Surrey-White Rock

CPC 24,176-LPC 22,164=2,012

7
Edmonton Mill Woods

CPC 18,248- LPC 16,499=1,749

8
South Shore-St. Margarets

CPC 20,444- LPC 18,527=1,917

9
Peterborough-Kawartha

CPC 27,301-LPC 24,564=2,737

10
Niagara Falls

CPC 23,650-LPC 23,650=3,160

34+264+602+1,022+1,649 +2,012+1,749+1,917 +2,737+3,160= 15,146 to tie the winner of these riding. 1 more each to win it.

15156 votes away from 170 seats. All the LPC technically needed was their percentage of the popular vote to go from 32.6 to 32.7 and they are in government for 4 years. And don't think for a second the LPC doesn't know this. They will be targeting these ridings with everything they have next election.

Now if Justin Trudeau knows he is 20k votes away from a majority government, why would he not run again?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Charest, if he runs, will not lead the CPC.
Poliviere can beat trudeau handily.
Freeland has already been chosen by WEF to be trudeau's replacement.
Poliviere can beat freeland easier than beating trudeau.
Singh hitched his wagon to the wrong horse and his party is going to suffer for it.
Once things settle down a bit, lots of info on how the world was scammed will follow. It has already started. Politicians that fumbled, stumbled and showed no backbone during the pandemic are all finished. They have been judged and found wanting. trudeau's venture into the world of an authoritarian fascist has not endeared him to the populace or that of the world. Democratic world leaders want nothing to do with him. Neither do Canadians. Any political capitol he carried has been spent and his IOU's are worthless. He screwed up WEF's social credit card rollout when he made banks the bad guys in the protest for seizing assets and made Canadians lose trust in our banking system, which is needed to move us to a cashless society. Klaus Schwab is not happy with Skippy right now. He's pushed gas to $10/gallon. He has bankrupted the country, our economy, our welfare, our way of life and our morals. His passport is the only thing that makes this globalist Paris Hilton a Canadian.

 

[Altair]

Charest, if he runs, will not lead the CPC.
Poliviere can beat trudeau handily.
Freeland has already been chosen by WEF to be trudeau's replacement.
Poliviere can beat freeland easier than beating trudeau.
Singh hitched his wagon to the wrong horse and his party is going to suffer for it.
Once things settle down a bit, lots of info on how the world was scammed will follow. It has already started. Politicians that fumbled, stumbled and showed no backbone during the pandemic are all finished. They have been judged and found wanting. trudeau's venture into the world of an authoritarian fascist has not endeared him to the populace or that of the world. Democratic world leaders want nothing to do with him. Neither do Canadians. Any political capitol he carried has been spent and his IOU's are worthless. He screwed up WEF's social credit card rollout when he made banks the bad guys in the protest for seizing assets and made Canadians lose trust in our banking system, which is needed to move us to a cashless society. Klaus Schwab is not happy with Skippy right now. He's pushed gas to $10/gallon. He has bankrupted the country, our economy, our welfare, our way of life and our morals. His passport is the only thing that makes this globalist Paris Hilton a Canadian.

Nice to know Doug Ford and Jason Kenney are done then

 

[Remius]

Charest, if he runs, will not lead the CPC.
Poliviere can beat trudeau handily.
Poliviere can beat freeland easier than beating trudeau.
Singh hitched his wagon to the wrong horse and his party is going to suffer for it.

I’ll stick to the following you stated…

For Charest, i think you are right. He won’t win the leadership. But I suspect if does run, it will highlight how badly split the CPC is and the campaign will do a lot of dirty work for the LPC to exploit. I think it will be a dirty campaign that Poilievre will seek to exploit at the lowest levels of political discourse. It’s already started.

If a moderate CPC leader couldn’t beat Trudeau, I doubt that Poillievre can.

I doubt he can beat Freeland either.

Singh can lose seats and still manage to frame it as a win. His party isn’t going anywhere and will still prop up the liberals like they always do. A liberal minority might as well be a majority with the NDP holding the balance.

Oh, “Skippy” is legit the nickname Poilivre had for a while on the hill.

‘Skippy’ aka MP Pierre Poilievre has sunk to new low

Over the course of his short, less than stellar political career, Nepean-Carleton MP Pierre Poilievre has said a number of silly and really foolish things.

ottawasun.com

 

[mariomike]

I think the pandering to the freedumb convoy will come back to bite them in the ass next time they go to the polls as well in the form of shots of their MPs with someone with a confederate or similar flag behind them.

I think you may be right.

I've resigned myself to the CPC being the Leafs of federal politics who excel at seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. Maybe this year will be the year!

That's an interesting comparison!

If a moderate CPC leader couldn’t beat Trudeau, I doubt that Poillievre can.

I doubt he can beat Freeland either.

Have to wait and see.

15156 votes away from 170 seats. All the LPC technically needed was their percentage of the popular vote to go from 32.6 to 32.7 and they are in government for 4 years. And don't think for a second the LPC doesn't know this. They will be targeting these ridings with everything they have next election.

Now if Justin Trudeau knows he is 20k votes away from a majority government, why would he not run again?

Interesting question.