2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Remius]

Yeah, can’t help having my spider-sense wonder WTF? Trying to wrap my head around “home town Windsor not safe enough, so sending him to Detroit…”
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A private school. 30K a year in tuition. So there is that…

 

[brihard]

If I have it right, he drew his biggest line in the sand. Putting everything he's said about the rail strike together, he was pretty clear.

If the government forced the workers back to work and if it came to a confidence vote, he would pull his support and vote against the government.

The workers were forced back to work. Now we need a party to put it to a confidence vote. Maybe the Block, maybe the Cons or NDP.

Will he do it? Maybe. His pension comes due in Feb 25, I think. So he could pull the pin during the fall sitting and still get his pension.

I believe this is a line he can't back away from without losing union support.

We'll see what he does when Parliament resumes.

Just following up on this- most of us, myself included, were expecting back to work legislation. Turned out that wasn’t necessary under a rarely used administrative power of the minister.

Today, the union filed for judicial review on several points. That’s entirely a judicial process; no legislation is needed. And, I suspect, the courts will ultimately find the exercise of administrative powers reasonable and correct based on the wording of the law, and the massive harm the economy was facing. Hell, did any of us here, despite our frequent differences on many subjects, support both cargo rail networks being permitted to simultaneously shut down? Maybe I missed a post but I think anyone who voiced an opinion expected and wanted some sort of compelled return to work which would pretty much necessarily mean binding arbitration. Anyway, there’s presently nothing that will go to Parliament directly on the rail strikes, so there’s nothing to directly force a confidence vote.

The NDP could pull confidence at any point, although the terms of the supply and confidence agreement include that they’ll work directly and behind closed doors with the LPC to hash anything out before that point, and the LPC commit to governing for the full term. It’s implicitly understood between the parties that NDP must and will make the usual opposition noises on issues they object to. I suspect even the barking over the LPC forcing the train workers back to work was expected and somewhat orchestrated. LPC know the NDP have to make noise on that, but that a double rail shutdown would be utterly unacceptable.

So… I don’t see anything suggesting it’s in anyone’s interests within LPC or NDP for the NDP to exit the agreement. That’s a wishful hope by team Blue who see themselves having already peaked, and want to get an election ASAP while they’re still riding the crest… But we’re fools if we think the Libs don’t know - and haven’t quietly discussed with the NDP - exactly what they can get away with.

It’s just Westminster politics being Westminster politics.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Here's the thing though. Very few are going to see it as what you described. In their mind, the government sent them back to work and singh said he wouldn't tolerate it. To most voters that is the meat and potatoes of the incident. They won't parse the minutia of Milnet.

 

[brihard]

Here's the thing though. Very few are going to see it as what you described. In their mind, the government sent them back to work and singh said he wouldn't tolerate it. To most voters that is the meat and potatoes of the incident. They won't parse the minutia of Milnet.

Right but most voters also don’t give a fuck. They aren’t live to the fact that it was actually at safety and scheduling. They’ll see a bunch of people making well into six figures threatening to strike, and will be told (accurately) that the shelves of their grocery stores would get pretty thin pretty fast, and a lot of industry shut down with a rail strike/lockout fouling JIT delivery. They’ll say “no, get the trains running”, and a small portion who pay more attention will add “and arbitrate”. I haven’t seen very much broader organized labour solidarity on this one.

 

[OldSolduer]

Here's the thing though. Very few are going to see it as what you described. In their mind, the government sent them back to work and singh said he wouldn't tolerate it.

He did tolerate it - and he's done that a number of times IIRC.