World War Seven (cont)
“So the general idea is to get the EU and Russians to face off in Eastern Europe, taking their attention away from the UK?”
“That is the thrust of this plan, Mr. President,” the Secretary of Defense answered with assurance.
“We also had the same concerns that you expressed about the situation spiraling out of control. I believe there are several factors that limit the ability of the conflict to spread out of control.
Starting with Russia, her internal situation is a shambles right now. Decades of Communist rule left the nation with a degraded environment and a totally malformed economic base, as development was forced into the distorted straight jackets of their five-year plans. The transition to democracy and market economies never really happened, the oligarchies that were established looted what was left, and the new Russian Empire is simply trying to expand to pillage the nations of the former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact, particularly the nations which seized the opportunities to become wealthy after the fall of the wall.
Their ability to sustain long term operations is therefore in doubt due to the generally poor state of Russian infrastructure and the uncertain logistical chain. This will be compounded by the fact that Russia is actually pressed on three sides, with the Islamists on their south and the Chinese to their east. Russia cannot afford to commit too much of her strength to Europe in case that invites the other powers to take advantage of her uncovered flanks. The demographic crash that affects Russia is probably more advanced than the EU or China, so they potentially have less manpower to carry out the subjugation of Eastern Europe while still guarding their borders and manning the factory floors.
The situation in the EU is somewhat different. The nations of Europe have been generally disarmed by tacit agreement for over 60 years, relying on the United States to carry the burden of their defense, so most of the military forces of the EU are rather small. The economic crisis has been very prolonged in Europe due to the massive amount of debt and the reluctance of all the EU nations to actively deleverage. Their ability to carry out long-term actions is also in doubt, as they simply don’t have the capital to sustain themselves. The economic colonization may allow France and Germany to cover over some of the structural defects for a period of time, but if they have to extract a lot of tribute from the southern European nations in a hurry, especially to sustain military operations, that will generate a lot of resentment, and require a great deal of the EU’s military power to be diverted from the UK and Eastern Europe to maintain order.
Europe also still has large unassimilated Muslim populations, which they view with a great deal of suspicion and fear. The Islamic block also threatens Europe from the south with large populations of poor people who can be unleashed as economic migrants to overwhelm the EU social safety net or simply as cannon fodder in any military confrontations, as well as wielding the energy weapon in the form of access to oil.
Finally, like Russia, Europe is facing a demographic decline, although not as severe as the Russian one. They face two real enemies in the form of Russia and the Islamic Block, as well as a third front from our ability to project force from the sea, which will stretch their resources to the utmost.”
While the Secretary of Defense paused to take some water, the President looked at the map of Europe on the display.
“What about China and the Islamic Block? How will they figure into this? There are already a lot of pieces on the board now, and it seems too easy for things to get out of hand.”
“Yes, sir, it does. The Islamic Block is fairly predatory, and not very predictable. Nevertheless, we believe that there are factors which mitigate the risk, as well as some steps we can take to aid the process.”
The map reshaped to follow her briefing, centering on Asia.
“First off, the Block is not anywhere as well integrated as the EU or Russia. There are pockets of wealth and industry, but also areas of extreme poverty and underdevelopment. There are multiple competing sects of Islam that have made a shotgun marriage of convenience to strike the “Infidels”, but who generally exist in mutual loathing of each other as apostates against their “true” version of Islam.
While they are demographically sound, they have very limited ability to project power, or even move industrial scales of manpower, raw material and finished products around their region. Masses of manpower in Central Asia or the African east coast are really only useful to maintain their hold on the region, rather than to strike at external enemies. The economic potential of the Block is also strangled by the essentially feudal nature of their societies, which leaves large amounts of human resources wasted as peasant farmers or locked away since women are almost universally excluded from education, the economy, politics or the military. Really the only reason they are able to do as well as they have is their geographic reach from Africa, the Middle East and across Asia, encompassing over a billion people. Their economy is suffering with the unexpected collapse of the price of oil, negatively affecting the incomes of many of the nations in the Block, and causing social stress as subsidies for food and other essentials is cut. The limited ability to move resources around the Block also provides the United States with a series of choke points that can be squeezed or throttled altogether to degrade their economies and war making potential at the time and place of our own choosing.
Indonesia is aligned with the Islamic block, although a great deal of the population is chafing under the strict Sharia laws the revolutionaries brought in. The nation is rich in manpower and natural resources, as well as sitting astride major sea routes in and out of the Indian Ocean, so you can be assured the Islamists won’t be loosening their grip there. They see it as their resource treasure box, and aren’t shy to use conscription and coercion to get at the men and materials they want. The Philippines suffered much the same fate, and both those places have enough easily available resources that even with low efficiency and restive populations they can still be valuable additions to support the Imperial ambitions of their Islamist masters.
China is another matter altogether. China is a near peer competitor with a large and modern military force and an advanced economy. She sees herself as the central hegemonic power in the world, with the rest of us as tributaries, and the historical period from1800 to the end of the 20th century as a sort of aberration to be corrected. The Chinese have been working diligently since at least the 1980’s to reclaim their rightful place in the world and put the rest of us, particularly Americans, in our place. You can be sure that the Chinese are offering subtle support and maybe even funding to keep the European crisis going, and are probably hoping to have us engaged there in order to limit our ability to act elsewhere. If we were to suffer a defeat or humiliation in Europe, they certainly would be pleased as well.
The economic crisis has put the Imperial project in a great deal of jeopardy, however. Internal stresses over the unequal distribution of wealth between the coastal region and the interior have been causing large and growing internal unrest. The collapse of the Chinese economic bubble has thrown tens of millions of people out of work and nullified the value of billions of dollars of assets. Military modernization programs have been suspended in order to free resources to deal with the economy, and many military units are now employed full time to quell rioting.
Geographic factors hamper China as well. She is hemmed in by the Himalayan Mountains to the west, and the routes to the oceans are all dominated by the island archipelagos of Indonesia in the south and by our allies Taiwan and Japan in the east, as well as the Korean peninsula to the north, which limits the ability of the Chinese to carry out force projection. The Islamic Block pressing against her western borders hems in China, and Russia maintains a large force in Siberia to prevent China from having easy access to the resources there. Finally, like Russia and the EU, the Chinese are undergoing a demographic dislocation from the “one child” policy. This causes social stresses in Chinese society as family structures are breaking down and large masses of men are unable to find wives or even female companionship, much less support during times of unemployment. As well, the large and growing Islamic population in the western regions of China is demanding autonomy from Chinese rule, and looking to the Islamic Block for support, which is drawing a lot of attention away from the Imperial project and towards stabilizing and securing her internal borders. In the longer term, the Chinese will also suffer a demographic decline, but this won’t be a factor in the time frame we are talking about.”
The President thought for a moment.
“So you’re saying these nations all have their hands full of their own problems, and won’t have the energy or resources to make more than a minor disturbance to the plan?”
“Not at all sir. We understand that there are a great many variables beyond our control, and that war is always the domain of chance events. However, the planners in the Pentagon are reasonably confident that the various factors mentioned here will limit the responses these players can make, and rational considerations of self preservation will keep any of these powers from overextending themselves, even if only to keep their borders secure from the others.”
“I’m not convinced” the President replied. “Virtually every nation or group you mentioned is suffering from various problems, but you people haven’t considered their means of gaining resolution to these problems. If Europe sees economic colonization as the answer to their problems, why would they stop in Southern or Eastern Europe? The Germans had far fewer resources in either World War, but that didn’t stop them from trying to expand far beyond the limits you have outlined to create an economic plantation for themselves. The Russians, the Islamists and the Chinese all have a burning vision of what they want the world to look like, and all these visions offer them positions of power and prestige in the global order, a powerful spur to action once the masks come off.
I want the planners to carefully consider scenarios where things go out of control. Most of what we are seeing seems to be motivated by greed or pride, and people in the grip of these emotions are not easily swayed by appeals to reason. When things start going wrong, then the people will be in the grip of fear, and people looking for an escape may trample any rational response.
While I have no doubt the staff have carefully crafted this plan, my overriding concern must be to the American people and the safety of the nation. We have spent a long five years trying to rebuild from the economic crisis, and it will take decades to rebuild and correct all the mistakes. A general war, or even a large scale regional conflict involving the United States will set back the recovery, and the threat of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction simply raises the risks and the stakes far to high to take risks lightly.
Our tasks are fairly clear.
I want the State Department to extend their diplomatic efforts to shore up and strengthen our alliances and prepare them for the coming conflicts. Friends will make a huge difference and maybe give us options we haven’t considered yet.
The Defense Department will continue to refine the plan, both to reduce the risks as much as possible as well as to provide a wide series of options in case things don’t go as planned. I will authorize the insertion of the 82nd Airborne Division to England to secure our bases, and the air and sea bridge to evacuate US citizens from the UK at the earliest opportunity, but no actions in the European mainland until the plan has been worked out.
Commerce and Treasury, we need to have the economy firing on all cylinders. Identify roadblocks to recovery, particularly outdated regulations and policies. This also has to be calibrated to prevent inflation or credit bubbles. We also need to ensure that we will be able to move to a war footing if needed.
Interior, we will need a cataloguing of our natural resource base and the ability to access land and materials if needed. Like Commerce and Treasury, your department will have to review its operations to remove regulatory and policy obstructions to development. Unlike most of the world, the United States is blessed with a rich and diversified resource base to feed our industrial plant, an advantage I’d like to make full use of.
Ladies and gentleman, I thank you for your time and attention, and will let you carry on with your tasks. I look forward to seeing you all again next week, and hearing your progress on these issues.”
With that, the President stood while the Cabinet and the assembled aids scrambled to their feet. Wishing everyone a “good morning”, the President and his Chief of Staff left the room.
“That was putting us on a war footing” the Chief of Staff said bluntly
“Indeed it was. We have far too many people out there wanting to dominate their portions of the world and take a swing at us, so I think we have to be ready. You remember your history, right?”
The Chief of Staff smiled. Before entering politics, he had been a full professor of American history and occasional host for various television shows. The President often used this as an inside joke, but today the mood was not light enough for that to be considered a joking matter.
“Of course, Mr. President. What period do you have in mind?”
“I’m thinking about the First World War, the one they called ‘The War to end all Wars’. It happened after a long period of peace and prosperity, and most people then thought it would be over very quickly. The major powers have been at peace for over 70 years now, with only regional wars between lesser powers and the occasional proxy battle between the superpowers during that time. Our staff doing the planning may be experienced and even battle hardened from our proxy wars during the last decade, but I sense they believe this conflict will be over by Christmas, and achievable at a very low cost.
As politicians we know how to whip up people’s emotions to gain support for the causes we believe in, and to move people to action. Politicians have known this for a long time, back to the days of Greece and Rome.” He hesitated.
“The Framers of the Constitution knew these things well” the Chief of staff put in. “Our Constitution and system of government is designed to limit the opportunities of demagogues to seize the popular will and create a dictatorship”.
“We have the Constitution, but most nations of the world do not; especially our opponents.” The President replied. “Even in our own history there have been many times the Constitution has been more observed in the breech than in practice. Woodrow Wilson basically imposed a Fascist government during the First World War. FDR ran pretty roughshod over the Constitution to implement the “New Deal”. I’m sure you are aware of other examples.
So that is the danger we face, getting lost and moving away from our principles during a time of war or crisis. I’m more worried about the other side, where there are few institutional barriers to direct rule and the temptation to use demagoguery to whip up the population into some sort of frenzy to make that last effort achieve victory or stave off defeat will be overwhelming. Once the EU or the Russians get to that point, then I think the situation will spiral out of control for the rest of us.
Can the United States take on the combined might of the world?"
