US VS G7

[Altair]

If I am correct about the election diverting Congress's attention somewhat from trade issues, then the approach I propose is an indirect one to exploit their interest in the former using the context of the latter.

Midterm elections generally don't favour the president's party, or a party which has held the House or Senate for a long time.  (Caveat: movement in the Senate depends a lot on which one-third of seats are contested.)  Republicans should get a boost from two things: the fate of the political balance in the USSC; and a strong economy.

So the course of action I suggest is not to fight an expanding trade war, but to cut those losses and instead wage an IO campaign among US representatives and senators encouraging them to recognize their deep self-interest in not having their economic indicators go down the tubes just before the election.

no GOP congressman has survived the president twitter blast.

They are all cowering. Their self interest seems to be limited to surviving the midterms,  and their nomination battles.

 

[Brad Sallows]

My point is that if you can persuade them to equate "fix trade war" with "survive nomination battle and midterm election" (ie. positive election impact of "fix trade war" > negative election impact of "oppose Trump"), then the problem may be resolved without successively widening circles of economic damage.  If the perception of "just give up" is unacceptable for other facets of this issue, it should be unacceptable for this one.

 

[Altair]

My point is that if you can persuade them to equate "fix trade war" with "survive nomination battle and midterm election" (ie. positive election impact of "fix trade war" > negative election impact of "oppose Trump"), then the problem may be resolved without successively widening circles of economic damage.  If the perception of "just give up" is unacceptable for other facets of this issue, it should be unacceptable for this one.

I have every faith in the canadians advocating in the USA,  the liberals, Rona Ambrose,Brian Mulroney, even Steven Harper.

I have no faith in the GOP ability to stand up to the american president

 

[Journeyman]

So the course of action I suggest is not to fight an expanding trade war, but to cut those losses and instead wage an IO campaign among US representatives and senators encouraging them to recognize their deep self-interest in not having their economic indicators go down the tubes just before the election.

I don't understand your cause & effect here.  If countries do not respond to Trump's tariffs with counter-tariffs (yellow), how would the US suffer economically (orange)?  What would an IO campaign be based upon?

 

[PuckChaser]

I don't understand your cause & effect here.  If countries do not respond to Trump's tariffs with counter-tariffs (yellow), how would the US suffer economically (orange)?  What would an IO campaign be based upon?

I'd be more based on the US bullying people,  which could garner sympathy across party lines. By targeting consumer goods in the US, life for the average Canadian just got more expensive, when Canada could have just mirrored steel and aluminum tariffs with little impact to the daily life of most Canadians. Its harder to galvanize support for your cause when that support has a price that is eating away what little disposable income lower middle class Canadians have.

It also looks suspect when our tariffs are carefully targeted at Republican areas,  making us look like we're trying to effect political change instead of get a fair trade deal.

 

[Journeyman]

I'd be more based on the US bullying people,  which could garner sympathy across party lines.

Your response actually gets further from answering the question; how would drawing attention to "the US bullying people" harm 'US economic indicators'?  Maybe let Brad Sallows address the original point.

It also looks suspect when our tariffs are carefully targeted at Republican areas,  making us look like we're trying to effect political change instead of get a fair trade deal.

???  It's not suspect at all;  our tariffs ARE carefully targeted predominantly  at Republican areas because we ARE attempting to effect political change surrounding these trade issues.

 

[observor 69]

And this thread is an example of why I see little value in engaging in such debates.
Except for J Man of course.  :nod:

 

[tomahawk6]

Merkel the peacemaker ?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/germany-merkel-pledges-every-effort-to-avert-us-trade-war/ar-AAzz4q0?ocid=spartanntp

 

[Brad Sallows]

>how would the US suffer economically (orange)?

Tariffs are self-inflicted damage.  The steel tariffs alone seem to adversely affect roughly 10 times the number of jobs that they positively effect.

 

[Altair]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/04/us-pork-producers-brace-for-new-pork-tariffs-from-china-mexico.html

U.S. pork producers are about to be bitten by a second batch of hefty retaliatory tariffs from China and Mexico — and that has some large producers predicting they could lose big money and be forced to invest overseas.

Executives say the pork industry has been expanding in recent years, in part on the expectation of export opportunities that would continue to support growth. However, the threat of a trade war is adding uncertainty and driving fear. One in 4 hogs raised in the U.S. is sold overseas, and the Chinese are the world's top consumers of pork.

"We put a halt on all investment, not just because we will be losing money, but because we don't know if growing in the U.S. is the right move if we won't be an exporting country," said Ken Maschhoff, chairman of Maschhoff Family Foods and co-owner of the nation's largest family-owned pork producer.

Maschhoff said the farm industry has been "asked to be good patriots. We have been. But I don't want to be the patriot who dies at the end of the war. If we go out of business, it's tough to look at my kids and the 550 farm families that look us into the eye and our 1,400 employees."

Mexico imposed a 10 percent tariff on chilled and frozen pork muscle cuts effective June 5, and that import tax is set to double to 20 percent on Thursday. Mexico's retaliatory action followed the Trump administration's duties on imported aluminum and steel.

China, meantime, is scheduled to start collecting an additional 25 percent import duty Friday on American pork products as it targets $34 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to President Donald Trump's action against Beijing for alleged intellectual property theft.

In other news, Canada is set to over take the US as the largest supplier of pork to China.

 

[PuckChaser]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/04/us-pork-producers-brace-for-new-pork-tariffs-from-china-mexico.html
In other news, Canada is set to over take the US as the largest supplier of pork to China.

How's that any different than the $100B CAD in oil and gas investments that have left Canada since the 2015 election? I don't think we should be throwing stones at a glass house when our government is torpedoing our economy just as badly.

 

[Altair]

How's that any different than the $100B CAD in oil and gas investments that have left Canada since the 2015 election? I don't think we should be throwing stones at a glass house when our government is torpedoing our economy just as badly.

The differences are vast,  but rather than derail this thread,  I'm going to stay on topic.

America is engaged in a trade war with its allies, I'm going to kept on that point.

I'm also going to repeatedly point out the folly in that policy.

 

[Journeyman]

Tariffs are self-inflicted damage.  The steel tariffs alone seem to adversely affect roughly 10 times the number of jobs that they positively effect.

Got it. Thanks.  :nod:

 

[a_majoor]

How's that any different than the $100B CAD in oil and gas investments that have left Canada since the 2015 election? I don't think we should be throwing stones at a glass house when our government is torpedoing our economy just as badly.

The fundamental problem is the Liberals had no plan in 2015, went "all in" on ill conceived "Green" "Climate change" and "Carbon tax" initiatives for their rent seekers and with the weight of their initiatives crushing the economy, now have no strategic room to move with US tariffs and other trade initiatives in play. Being painted into a corner by your opponent is one thing (and given the gross disparity between our two economies, that outcome may have been inevitable anyway), but preemptively. painting yourself into a corner is hardly the mark of people who are planning ahead or are engaged in the process.

So my prediction stands: we are in deep soup until at least 2028 (President Trump is re elected in 2020, and the new Administration in 2024 will take at least one term to wind things down, unless the global situation is settling into a new alignment by that time as seems to be the President's plan).

The only out we might still have is if either opposition party simply looks at Canada's national interests, sees where they align with those of the US in the emerging world order and makes a sensible plan to implement it and beat the recession. This will require tremendous self control (remember the Liberals will run on a platform of "Trump is a big meanie", and so far the other political parties and organizations seem to have climbed aboard that train), as well as a really awesome selling job to the public to demonstrate how having a plan will work to their benefit.

You can colour me sceptical that such an epiphany is actually going to happen.....

 

[Altair]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/05/carney-tells-trump-escalation-of-trade-war-will-hurt-us-most

Speaking hours before the world’s top two economies prepare to launch tariffs on one another’s imports, Mark Carney said further escalation would have serious and damaging consequences for global GDP. He cautioned that US growth could be hit by as much as 5%, compared with a slowdown for the rest of the world of up to half that amount.

The intervention from the head of a G7 central bank against another member of the club of wealthy nations marks one of the boldest criticisms levelled against the US president so far.

Speaking in Newcastle on Thursday, Carney said the current round of import tariffs from the US and retaliatory measures against the country, including spats with the EU, had already slowed the global economy.

Mark Carney always seemed like a pretty level headed guy, I doubt he would be this alarmist without good reason.

Seems clear thought that he thinks the USA is going to end up on the losing end of this. I hope he is right.

 

[Journeyman]

….and the new Administration in 2024 will take at least one term to wind things down, unless the global situation is settling into a new alignment by that time as seems to be the President's plan.

I'm seriously curious what sort of "new alignment" you foresee.

 

[CBH99]

Global situation settling into a new alignment?  I'm thinking more & more that China will absolutely surpass the US as the global "go to" country for a variety of needs, whether it be economic, military, foreign development, etc.

China has one of the largest armed forces in the world, and isn't spread across the world the way the US is.  And I believe China's "goal" of having a blue water navy was met long ago, as the warships it's literally pumping out in volumes are coming out pretty equal technology-wise to European & American ships in many ways. 

China is one of the largest economies in the world, and does not link it's foreign aid money with a bunch of conditions, the way the US does.  If your a 3rd world government with little regard for ethics, doing business with China is less of a hassle than doing business with the US (ethics aside)

China has one of the largest consumer bases in the world.  Want to seek private investment?  China.  Want to sell a product?  China.  Want to market an entertainment or product to a country with 3x as many people as the US?  China.


India is too incompetent to compete, it's about as good at buying military equipment as we are.  Plus it has the 'burden' of a democratic government system, which gives China the advantage as they can act in the best interest of China without the constant interference of multiple government parties opposing.  India is even being muscled out of the Maldives by Chinese investment right now.  The local government has chosen not to renew land leases to the Indian government, and has instead welcomed a huge investment in condos, malls, infrastructure, airports, etc etc from the Chinese. 

New alignment...I'm thinking very much China.  The dragon isn't just crawling out of it's egg anymore, it's grown into a pretty dominating beast & it only continues to eat & get bigger.    :2c:

 

[Altair]

Global situation settling into a new alignment?  I'm thinking more & more that China will absolutely surpass the US as the global "go to" country for a variety of needs, whether it be economic, military, foreign development, etc.

China has one of the largest armed forces in the world, and isn't spread across the world the way the US is.  And I believe China's "goal" of having a blue water navy was met long ago, as the warships it's literally pumping out in volumes are coming out pretty equal technology-wise to European & American ships in many ways. 

China is one of the largest economies in the world, and does not link it's foreign aid money with a bunch of conditions, the way the US does.  If your a 3rd world government with little regard for ethics, doing business with China is less of a hassle than doing business with the US (ethics aside)

China has one of the largest consumer bases in the world.  Want to seek private investment?  China.  Want to sell a product?  China.  Want to market an entertainment or product to a country with 3x as many people as the US?  China.


India is too incompetent to compete, it's about as good at buying military equipment as we are.  Plus it has the 'burden' of a democratic government system, which gives China the advantage as they can act in the best interest of China without the constant interference of multiple government parties opposing.  India is even being muscled out of the Maldives by Chinese investment right now.  The local government has chosen not to renew land leases to the Indian government, and has instead welcomed a huge investment in condos, malls, infrastructure, airports, etc etc from the Chinese. 

New alignment...I'm thinking very much China.  The dragon isn't just crawling out of it's egg anymore, it's grown into a pretty dominating beast & it only continues to eat & get bigger.    :2c:

Well said.

It is absolutely amazing to watch america cede its status in the world,  create voids being filled by china, bleeding influence,  prestige and shortly,  wealth.

America should be using this time to create stronger ties,  politically and economically to counter rising chinese strength and wealth,  instead it is doing the polar opposite,  almost pushing the world into chinas welcome,  non judgmental arms.

Damage like this is not easily undone,  and it is in my opinion, the act of a society that has grown arrogant about its status in the world. America,  Americans have not known a period of time where they have not been the premier power on the globe,  an empire with a web of treaties and alliances that allow it to project power wherever it pleases. Having always known this status,  they don't respect how easy it is for it all to slip away,  and how fast it can happen.

Especially since the fall of the USSR,  america could always count on there being no nation that could challenge its hegemony on world,  financial, and military affairs. But you are right,  for decades now,  china has been playing the long game,  careful to never fully upset the balance of power too quickly or forcefully. But now they can play the fast game,  for the world,  repulsed by the actions it does not understand,  appreciate, or are willing to go along with, are actively looking for ways to knock america down a peg.

And what better way than the global power in waiting,  china.

It would be all lot more interesting,  even entertaining,  if it were not so serious,  or depressing.

 

[QV]

Just have to love that basic dictatorship, eh? If only the rest of us weren’t so damn democratic.

 

[Brad Sallows]

There is an irony in the progressive crowd that loves to love China (eg. Thomas Friedman) with its real authoritarianism, but can't stand Trump on the basis of his being "authoritarian" (which by definition he is not).

I have no more welcome for China as a big player than I did for the USSR.  The Chinese peoples and their essential values (except for a certain amount of chauvinism) are wonderful; their government is an abomination.  I too look forward to the US ending its current turmoil; but Trump is a symptom, not a cause, of the underlying cultural war.