US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021

[Colin Parkinson]

Oh really? The paving trucks from China are probably already starting to move towards the border to continue the Silk Road construction

Good luck with that, very little of China connects with Afghanistan and what does is less than ideal road build terrain. meaning any trade must go through a third country and the distances are not small. Coupled with political instability, a total lack of infrastructure and a lack of skilled people means China must import everything to build the infrastructure so they can extract the resource. We are talking huge investments with decades long timeframes and very little benefit to the locals. Eventually Pakistan will stab China and so will the Taliban, just a matter of when. And if they don't then another Islamic group or tribe will.

The Afghanistan-China Belt & Road Initiative - Silk Road Briefing

By Chris Devonshire-Ellis Potential routes exist along the Wakhan Corridor and via Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but it is Pakistani access to Kabul that looks the better option – as long as the Taliban can provide stability, develop Afghan society, and refrain from regional aggression...

www.silkroadbriefing.com

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Where is the equipment and labourers NATO used to build the highway?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Likely the equipment is being sold to interests in Pakistan

 

[The Bread Guy]

Offering some more tea leaves to read with this cluster of stories ....

• “Turkey holds first talks with the Taliban in Kabul” (Al Jazeera)
• “Erdogan Says Turkey Has Held Its First Talks With Taliban” (TOLO News, AFG independent media*)
• “Defense Ministers of Turkey, US to Discuss Kabul Airport Plan” (TOLO News, AFG independent media)
• “Turkey won’t help at Kabul airport without its own security -officials” (Reuters)

* - Independent for now, anyway ....

 

[Czech_pivo]

Afghanistan has minerals, China has money and equipment. End of problem.

It still becomes a matter of getting those minerals out, cost effectively.
There are no railroads, only the highways that we (the west) built and those run really only to Pakistan. So how do they get those minerals out? Through Pakistan, those same Tribal lands that we had to rely on shipping gasoline and other supplies through? Run those trucks all the way to Karachi? I guess its possible, down through Kandahar, Quetta and on to Karachi.
Can't run those trucks into Iran, can't run them into the Panjshir valley and then onto China, Taz, Turk and Uz stans are all not feasible.
These are all the same reason why we, (the west) couldn't pull it off over the last 20yrs.
I have no doubt China will be putting its toes into the Afghan pool, just not so sure they will jump into the water or slowly ease themselves bit by bit.

 

[QV]

It still becomes a matter of getting those minerals out, cost effectively.
There are no railroads, only the highways that we (the west) built and those run really only to Pakistan. So how do they get those minerals out? Through Pakistan, those same Tribal lands that we had to rely on shipping gasoline and other supplies through? Run those trucks all the way to Karachi? I guess its possible, down through Kandahar, Quetta and on to Karachi.
Can't run those trucks into Iran, can't run them into the Panjshir valley and then onto China, Taz, Turk and Uz stans are all not feasible.
These are all the same reason why we, (the west) couldn't pull it off over the last 20yrs.
I have no doubt China will be putting its toes into the Afghan pool, just not so sure they will jump into the water or slowly ease themselves bit by bit.

You're assuming China and the TB give a rats ass about people, like the West does. You know how they get the minerals out? A couple thousand afghans carrying them out on their back for a nickel a week at gun point.

 

[Czech_pivo]

You're assuming China and the TB give a rats ass about people, like the West does. You know how they get the minerals out? A couple thousand afghans carrying them out on their back for a nickel a week at gun point.

Yes and that is how the next insurgency starts. The circle of life, lol.

 

[QV]

US special operations vets carry out daring mission to save Afghan allies

At least 13 service members were killed in an attack at the Kabul airport on Thursday.

abcnews.go.com

With the Taliban growing more violent and adding checkpoints near Kabul's airport, an all-volunteer group of American veterans of the Afghan war launched a final daring mission on Wednesday night dubbed the "Pineapple Express" to shepherd hundreds of at-risk Afghan elite forces and their families to safety, members of the group told ABC News.

Moving after nightfall in near-pitch black darkness and extremely dangerous conditions, the group said it worked unofficially in tandem with the United States military and U.S. embassy to move people, sometimes one person at a time, or in pairs, but rarely more than a small bunch, inside the wire of the U.S. military-controlled side of Hamid Karzai International Airport....

 

[Brad Sallows]

The reason the "west" can't do very much there is because the "west" has self-imposed rules against paying bribes/protection to locals to keep the peace on their turf. I suppose that the Chinese, if they want the resources, would pay local warlords to secure the routes. I pointed out not long ago that the GDP of Afghanistan is $20B. For those wondering whether that is a lot of money, the GDP of Prince Edward Island is about $6B. When I refer to a "problem" being solved if the Chinese get involved, I mean the financing "problem". I'm confident that doling out cash and jobs works as well there - and in the neighbouring countries, where necessary - as it does here.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I am going to have to disagree with you on this one Brad. China's projects around the world are not going as well as they would like. I suspect that Afghanistan will a lower priority than the seaports and more developed nations bit. They may focus on improving a land link with Iran as a backup plan. But China is having a lot of domestic problems right now with natural disasters, corruption and projects literally falling apart in front of them.
Afghanistan political issues is going to make it hard for the Chinese to succeed with any major projects and they have little love for Muslims and that is going to come to a head at some point.

Wiki says about that GDP

GDP - composition by sector:

• agriculture: 23%
• industry: 21.1%
• services: 55.9%

 

[OldSolduer]

I was watching Biden's press secretary on CBC. The situation sucks and will probably worsen.

They are expecting more targeted attacks - in what form who knows?

Over 100 dead from the last one.

 

[KevinB]

The reason the "west" can't do very much there is because the "west" has self-imposed rules against paying bribes/protection to locals to keep the peace on their turf.

Uhm...
We do that all the time in Afghanistan - or we did - by we, I mean certain coalition partners.

I suppose that the Chinese, if they want the resources, would pay local warlords to secure the routes. I pointed out not long ago that the GDP of Afghanistan is $20B. For those wondering whether that is a lot of money, the GDP of Prince Edward Island is about $6B. When I refer to a "problem" being solved if the Chinese get involved, I mean the financing "problem". I'm confident that doling out cash and jobs works as well there - and in the neighbouring countries, where necessary - as it does here.

Afghanistan has a lot of land - and resources - even if the resources are not currently being utilized.

Plus China has the labor force to build roads for a land route to Afghanistan -
Also they managed to ship in AK's, Grenades, Explosives and MANPADS fairly easily over the last 20 years...

 

[OldSolduer]

Afghanistan has a lot of land - and resources - even if the resources are not currently being utilized.

Is there not a big vein of copper near the Argendhab River? I've never been for any appreciable length of time but I do recall someone saying that.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

i worked with the Resource Industry for a long time, people underestimate just how hard it is to put in a open pit mine, even without regulatory oversight. Venezuela is overflowing with minerals, lot's of people and companies have tried to build mines there and failed because of the enormous upfront costs, corruption and game playing by local political factions and that place will be 50 times easier than Afghanistan to work in.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The reason the "west" can't do very much there is because the "west" has self-imposed rules against paying bribes/protection to locals to keep the peace on their turf ...

Oh, oh, oh, I know the "Yes, Minister" quote for this one ....

... Commission fees, administrative overheads, operative costs, managerial surcharges, introduction expenses, miscellaneous outgoings ....

 

[Weinie]

The reason the "west" can't do very much there is because the "west" has self-imposed rules against paying bribes/protection to locals to keep the peace on their turf. I suppose that the Chinese, if they want the resources, would pay local warlords to secure the routes. I pointed out not long ago that the GDP of Afghanistan is $20B. For those wondering whether that is a lot of money, the GDP of Prince Edward Island is about $6B. When I refer to a "problem" being solved if the Chinese get involved, I mean the financing "problem". I'm confident that doling out cash and jobs works as well there - and in the neighbouring countries, where necessary - as it does here.

A good friend of mine left the Forces for this very reason. He was in Cambodia with the UN in the early 90's as an Engineer, and they had to bribe the local warlord to allow a bridge, over a major route, to be re-built. The UN did so, and about a week later, the bridge was blown up. The local warlord again agreed to allow the bridge to be re-built, but for an even more exorbitant fee. Cue explosion about a week later. This happened several more times. Int definitely pointed to warlords involvement , UN said "Meh"

My friend recently retired as a senior officer with the RCMP. CAF loss.

 

[Remius]

A good friend of mine left the Forces for this very reason. He was in Cambodia with the UN in the early 90's as an Engineer, and they had to bribe the local warlord to allow a bridge, over a major route, to be re-built. The UN did so, and about a week later, the bridge was blown up. The local warlord again agreed to allow the bridge to be re-built, but for an even more exorbitant fee. Cue explosion about a week later. This happened several more times. Int definitely pointed to warlords involvement , UN said "Meh"

My friend recently retired as a senior officer with the RCMP. CAF loss.

I heard a similar story from a guy I know that was working for the UN in Mali. UN aid convoys kept getting held up at gun point by “terrorists” but was really local warlords being paid off by the UN who were trying to control who really got the aid. Apparently the UN was aware but didn’t do much about it.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I heard a similar story from a guy I know that was working for the UN in Mali. UN aid convoys kept getting held up at gun point by “terrorists” but was really local warlords being paid off by the UN who were trying to control who really got the aid. Apparently the UN was aware but didn’t do much about it.

Shocked i tell you, shocked!

 

[Jarnhamar]

Not exactly related but found this interesting.

In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA​

In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA

Syrian militias armed by different parts of the U.S. war machine have begun to fight each other on the plains between the besieged city of Aleppo and the Turkish border, highlighting how little control U.S. intelligence officers and military planners have over the groups they have financed and…

www.latimes.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Heads should roll but will they and will the correct ones roll?

Marine officer relieved of duty after calling out senior leaders about Afghanistan

"I am willing to throw it all away to say to my senior leaders, ‘I demand accountability,'" Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller said in a video message.

www.politico.com