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U.S. 2012 Election

On Nov 6 Who Will Win President Obama or Mitt Romney ?

  • President Obama

    Votes: 39 61.9%
  • Mitt Romney

    Votes: 24 38.1%

  • Total voters
    63
  • Poll closed .
E.R. Campbell said:
Americans no longer know how to produce what the world wants ...  

Did American's ever know how to produce what the World wants?  My sense is that since the 1850s they have relied on foreign investment to supply goods and services to Americans, of which there was an ever increasing supply (immigrants and baby boomers).  They have consistently produced products built to American Standards that are incompatible with goods produced in the rest of the world (nuts and bolts that are neither Imperial nor Metric, power at 60 Hz and not 50 Hz, televisions based on NTSC not PAL......).  America's exceptionalism (isolationism) knew, and knows, no bounds.

America's problem is that her market is saturated.  Marketers in America are reduced to selling on the margins (upgrading your "ancient" two month old 3G cell phone for a 4G phone) and the marketing effort is costly.  Meanwhile in Africa and Asia there is a whole world of people willing to buy ANY cell phone with no marketing effort.  Consequently it is easy to produce to meet the African and Asian demand, with the suppliers splitting the marketing costs between reduced prices and increased profits.  In the West we are those idiots that buy the latest gadgets at the entry level price point just to prove we can buy the latest gadget and fund the development.

 
Haletown said:
Who?  The people of the United States of America who he is so royally screwing over in his blind pursuit of socialist equality or whatever mumbo-jumbo he reads off his teleprompter. 

The ones who still generally approve of him? Despite the inherent problems of polls, they consistently show he's in a fairly comfortable position. And one, according to some of today's reporting, that is getting stronger.

Haletown said:
I understand it is so hard to do the Hopey Changey thing anymore and all you can do now  is hold on to blind belief  in The One, but in those moments when doubt creeps in, here's some moral support for you.

I hold no such blind belief. The guy's no messiah. He was, however, the best choice in 2008, in both my opinion, and in the opinion of the American electorate, and he remains so in 2012. It's that simple.

As to Mr. Campbell's claim about GM. The earthquake doesn't seem to have slowed down the Japanese auto industry's ability to meet demand. And it would not shift consumers to one particular manufacturer either. Unless he or someone else has something to back this claim up, I find no reason to believe it.
 
A True Believer......

I remember, in 1993, that I once believed the hyperbola the media spewed out.....I admitt.....(shudder) I voted Liberal.... whew....there I did it.....


History and a bi*^&h slap upside the head got me straightened out in time for the next election....but now when I look back........it was close..... :)
 
Kirkhill said:
Did American's ever know how to produce what the World wants?  My sense is that since the 1850s they have relied on foreign investment to supply goods and services to Americans, of which there was an ever increasing supply (immigrants and baby boomers).  They have consistently produced products built to American Standards that are incompatible with goods produced in the rest of the world (nuts and bolts that are neither Imperial nor Metric, power at 60 Hz and not 50 Hz, televisions based on NTSC not PAL......).  America's exceptionalism (isolationism) knew, and knows, no bounds.

America's problem is that her market is saturated.  Marketers in America are reduced to selling on the margins (upgrading your "ancient" two month old 3G cell phone for a 4G phone) and the marketing effort is costly.  Meanwhile in Africa and Asia there is a whole world of people willing to buy ANY cell phone with no marketing effort.  Consequently it is easy to produce to meet the African and Asian demand, with the suppliers splitting the marketing costs between reduced prices and increased profits.  In the West we are those idiots that buy the latest gadgets at the entry level price point just to prove we can buy the latest gadget and fund the development.


Indeed they did: in the 1700s it was ships - better built than British ships, better even than French ships (which where also better than British ships); in the 1800s it was machines and, for the first time, better ideas - about things and about how to make things; in the 1900s it was more, better things, made faster and cheaper than the British or Germans could manage.

The Americans still produce good, indeed great ideas but they can no longer turn them into products that can be made by a large number of low skilled but well paid workers. The service sector and the so called knowledge economy  do not produce the jobs that the lower middle and lower classes need.

Make no mistake: there is a class, or maybe cultural divide in America and, despite the fact that America still is a land of opportunity, too few people move out of the lower and lower middle classes and those classes remain poorly educated and consequently poorly prepared to fend for themselves because the jobs that were there for them in the 1950s and '60s and even in the '70s and '80s are being done, and done better, by people in China and, increasingly, Indonesia and the Philippines - by people who are moving up from the bottom of the heap to the lower and lower middle classes.

There are 20 to 25 million unemployed in America right now; there are, also, five to ten million illegal immigrants doing jobs which Americans cannot do because laws and labour contracts mean that only illegal workers can do the work at the available market rate. Those are "good" lower class jobs - but America now has a new, even lower class, the illegals - many of whom are clawing their way up the ladder, past the stagnating lower classes.

The class/colour/culture divide is  not President Obama's fault, nor it is Governor Romney's but neither man has a plan to address it. Nor, I'm sad to say, do I.  :(  But the ONLY way to break the class/colour/culture divide is by restoring "hope" to the young men and women in the lower and lower middle classes - and not the false, bullshit "hope" that Obama peddles, which is designed, sadly, to keep the poor just where and as they are. The "hope" they need is in low skill and, of necessity, low wage jobs and a qualitatively better education system for their kids that cares nothing about "self esteem" and everything about skills and knowledge.
 
Canada has a similar problem.

There has been many articles over the years about Industry not creating trade apprenticeships to develop skilled workers. This would develop a skilled class that would reignite the entrepreneurship that is needed to grow the economy.
 
SeaKingTacco said:
media.toyota.ca/pr/tci/en/toyota-statement-regarding-earthquake-197650.aspx

Here you go- 10 seconds on google.

According to Toyota, they lost 450,000 units of production last year as a result of the March 11 Earthquake.

That's not in dispute, doesn't take much to figure out.. It did cause production disruptions. Did that, however, shift consumer purchases? Possibly. But what did consumers do in response? Did they specifically buy more GM products? Or did they substitute Korean, European, or other automobiles? Did they delay their purchases to wait for what they wanted? That's what would be needed to support Mr. Campbell's claim.
 
Redeye said:
That's not in dispute, doesn't take much to figure out.. It did cause production disruptions. Did that, however, shift consumer purchases? Possibly. But what did consumers do in response? Did they specifically buy more GM products? Or did they substitute Korean, European, or other automobiles? Did they delay their purchases to wait for what they wanted? That's what would be needed to support Mr. Campbell's claim.


I am happy to note that GM and Ford (Chrysler, too?) are making better cars, cars that more and more people want to buy, and they are selling them at very competitive prices ... that's good; the more people who make good stuff the better. But it has SFA to do with Barack Hussein Obama; even the bailouts were unnecessary and, in the end, a waste of good money. Without the bailouts GM would still be making better cars and selling them at very competitive prices - just under new ownership.
 
GAP said:
A True Believer......

I remember, in 1993, that I once believed the hyperbola the media spewed out.....I admitt.....(shudder) I voted Liberal.... whew....there I did it.....


History and a bi*^&h slap upside the head got me straightened out in time for the next election....but now when I look back........it was close..... :)

Saw this bumper sticker at the gun show.

"I voted for Obama in 2008 to prove I wasn't a racist;
In 2012, I'll have to vote for someone else to prove I'm not stupid."
 
Obama isn't to blame for what happened in 2008/09 - except is the broadest possible sense of being one of the many who wanted mortgages made available to people who were unequipped to handle them; but, equally, he doesn't get any credit for 2010/11, either; most of what he did was recycled Bush policy, and such credit as is earned by anyone probably goes to Ben Bernake.
 
Indeed they did: in the 1700s it was ships - better built than British ships, better even than French ships (which where also better than British ships);

As many in the Royal Navy freely admitted when they ended up sailing under the White Ensign.  :nod:  (Sorry, couldn't let that one go by).

Fair comment on the shipping ERC but I still take issue on the ability of the US to penetrate markets.  I don't have much sense that they succeeded in selling much in the way of machinery outside of the Western Hemisphere.  I do take your point that they have been extraordinarily successful in selling ideas and concepts (from republicanism to MacDonalds).  I will also agree that in the post WW2 era they have made a useful nickel from the sale of weaponry.  But where is the evidence of American televisions in Europe or cars in Asia?  I don't see it.

 
SeaKingTacco said:
Autonews seems to think GM will drop again this year, in the wake of Japanese autmakers getting back to full production:

www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20120128/RETAIL01/301289987/1448



......In a bid to catch up, Toyota is adding factories in Brazil, China, Thailand and elsewhere, aiming to sell half its cars in emerging markets by 2015, up from around 40 percent now...

http://www.firstpost.com/fwire/gm-back-to-top-slot-in-automakers-in-the-world-189433.html


How many does GM plan on opening........zilch, nada, なし, aucune, ни один. Who do you think will be on top at the end of the year?
 
Kirkhill said:
As many in the Royal Navy freely admitted when they ended up sailing under the White Ensign.  :nod:  (Sorry, couldn't let that one go by).

Fair comment on the shipping ERC but I still take issue on the ability of the US to penetrate markets.  I don't have much sense that they succeeded in selling much in the way of machinery outside of the Western Hemisphere.  I do take your point that they have been extraordinarily successful in selling ideas and concepts (from republicanism to MacDonalds).  I will also agree that in the post WW2 era they have made a useful nickel from the sale of weaponry.  But where is the evidence of American televisions in Europe or cars in Asia?  I don't see it.


Actually, GM is doing very well in China with its Buick brand. The problem, for GM, is that so are BMW and Toyota and, increasingly, local, domestic Chinese brands; the problem for America is that those popular Buicks are made in China by Chinese workers.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Actually, GM is doing very well in China with its Buick brand. The problem, for GM, is that so are BMW and Toyota and, increasingly, local, domestic Chinese brands; the problem for America is that those popular Buicks are made in China by Chinese workers.

Which, it could be argued, means that the Chinese are selling the IDEA of an American car and that GM has franchised the Buick concept....But I suppose the same could be said of a Honda manufactured in Ontario or a Toyota produced in Tennessee.

 
E.R. Campbell said:
...

Make no mistake: there is a class, or maybe cultural divide in America and, despite the fact that America still is a land of opportunity, too few people move out of the lower and lower middle classes and those classes remain poorly educated and consequently poorly prepared to fend for themselves because the jobs that were there for them in the 1950s and '60s and even in the '70s and '80s are being done, and done better, by people in China and, increasingly, Indonesia and the Philippines - by people who are moving up from the bottom of the heap to the lower and lower middle classes.

There are 20 to 25 million unemployed in America right now; there are, also, five to ten million illegal immigrants doing jobs which Americans cannot do because laws and labour contracts mean that only illegal workers can do the work at the available market rate. Those are "good" lower class jobs - but America now has a new, even lower class, the illegals - many of whom are clawing their way up the ladder, past the stagnating lower classes.

The class/colour/culture divide is  not President Obama's fault, nor it is Governor Romney's but neither man has a plan to address it. Nor, I'm sad to say, do I.  :(  But the ONLY way to break the class/colour/culture divide is by restoring "hope" to the young men and women in the lower and lower middle classes - and not the false, bullshit "hope" that Obama peddles, which is designed, sadly, to keep the poor just where and as they are. The "hope" they need is in low skill and, of necessity, low wage jobs and a qualitatively better education system for their kids that cares nothing about "self esteem" and everything about skills and knowledge.


More on this, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/margaret-wente/have-we-become-a-caste-society/article2318042/
Have we become a caste society?

MARGARET WENTE

From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Published Saturday, Jan. 28, 2012

Barack Obama has thrown down the gauntlet. The next U.S. election will be about equality and fairness. It will give Americans a clear choice between a country where “a shrinking number of people do really well while a growing number of Americans barely get by,” and a country “where everyone gets a fair shot.” It’s time to apply the same rules from top to bottom, he said in his State of the Union address. “No bailouts, no handouts and no copouts.”

We can all clap for that I guess. Inequality has soared, and that should worry everyone. The trouble is, solutions are hard to come by. Raising taxes on the rich might be a good thing, but it won’t narrow the gap. So what will? Some people want massive investment in early childhood education for disadvantaged kids. Some want massive job-creation programs, or a massive increase in training for the unskilled. Such solutions would need vast amounts of public money, but maybe they’d be worth it.

Now comes Charles Murray to lob a grenade into this progressive wishful thinking. His new book, Coming Apart, to be released next week, argues that the most important gap between the upper class and what we used to call the working class is no longer economic or social. It’s cultural.

As recently as the 1960s, he writes, people were united by a common understanding of “American values.” Just about everyone believed in marriage, two-parent families and hard work. But now, class values have dramatically diverged. “We have developed a new upper class with advanced educations, often obtained at elite schools, sharing tastes and preferences that set them apart from mainstream America,” he writes in The Wall Street Journal. “At the same time, we have developed a new lower class, characterized not by poverty but by withdrawal from America’s core cultural institutions.”

The differences go far deeper than a taste for Chablis versus two-fours. They extend to such basic matters as how you raise your kids and what it means to be a man.

To prove his case, Mr. Murray compares data from two fictitious neighbourhoods called Belmont and Fishtown. Belmont is an upper-middle-class suburb of managers and professionals with university degrees. The people who live in Fishtown have high-school diplomas and work blue-collar and low-skilled service jobs. (To simplify matters, he limits his analysis to the white population.) In 1960, nearly every midlife adult in both towns was married – 94 per cent in Belmont, 84 per cent in Fishtown. “Then came the great divergence.” Today the marriage rate in Belmont is 83 per cent, while the marriage rate in Fishtown has slid to 48 per cent. The same thing happened to nonmarital births. In 1960, just 2 per cent of all white births in the U.S. were to unmarried women. By 2008, the nonmarital birth rate among the well-educated women of Belmont had grown to just under 6 per cent. In Fishtown, it was 44 per cent.

No matter how loath we are to stigmatize single lower-class mothers, the outcomes for their children are generally grim. So are the outcomes for men who are detached from the work force. In 1968, only 3 per cent of men in either Belmont or Fishtown were out of the labour force. By 2008 (before the onset of the recession), it had grown to 12 per cent in Fishtown, while in Belmont it hadn’t changed at all. Mr. Murray argues that the main cause of high male unemployment in Fishtown is not the scarcity of low-skilled work, but the erosion of the work ethic.

These trends are not as pronounced in Canada, but the patterns are the same. If you read The Globe and Mail, you (or your parents) probably live in Belmont. You may even belong to the notorious and much-reviled One Per Cent. It doesn’t take all that much money. A family income of $196,000 will do it, according to the current issue of Toronto Life, which offers brief sketches of a few of these plutocrats. They are classic examples of bourgeois industriousness – well-educated, hard-working, conscientious professionals and parents who, after childcare expenses and mortgage payments, don’t feel all that rich.

Today, the top 20 per cent and the bottom 20 per cent seldom cross paths (except at Tim Hortons). They raise their kids in different ways, send them to different schools, eat different kinds of food, choose different forms of exercise and recreation, take different kinds of vacations. The top 20 per cent include virtually all of the people who run our governments, manage our businesses and set our social policies. But fewer and fewer of them know anybody in the bottom 20 per cent, or have much idea of how they think and live.

This class divide has become self-perpetuating, argues Mr. Murray. (He doesn’t discuss Canada’s vibrant immigrant classes, where social mobility is as strong as ever.) One reason is that most people choose mates from the same educational level. “The formation of the new upper class has been driven by forces that are nobody’s fault and resist manipulation,” he writes. “The economic value of brains in the marketplace will continue to increase no matter what, and the most successful of each generation will tend to marry each other no matter what. As a result, the most successful Americans will continue to trend toward consolidation and isolation as a class.”

A lot of people aren’t going to like this message. I don’t like it much myself. But Mr. Murray doesn’t conclude that the answer is to do nothing. His conclusion is that the challenge of inequality is much more complicated than we think.


The "class divide" is exacerbated when race is considered, as it must be. Some groups are stuck in a trap that involves lack of opportunity, too much dependency, crime, broken families and despair; other groups manage, usually in one generation, to lift themselves our of that same trap and into the middle class. The "class divide" is, I think, at least in part a "culture divide." But race, while involved in some cultures, doesn't explain everything or, even, a lot of things - otherwise we wouldn't have the expression "white trash."
 
A few points about getting opportunity:

I have been posting on a separate thread (The education bubble), but alternative models of education and credentialing are rapidly emerging. Soon, a person of limited means can access all kinds of courses on the Internet and get that education recognized by employers. Naturally, the educational establishment is horrified (and in the United States they provide a solid base of Democrat Party support, from public school teachers unions to elite universities), especially since breaking the education monopoly means the end of the flow of government monies. Even now, there are hostile hearings directed against "for profit" education facilities (which are mostly brick and mortar schools), because their success is already drawing away students and threatening the per student funding models of government funded schools.

The other alternative of apprenticeships was raised by Tim Hudak recently in the Ontario legislature, a proposal that could see up to 200,000 people employed by the end of this governments term. The proposal was rapidly shot down by Premier McGuinty due to the opposition of his trade union supporters. There is a National Post article on this, will try to find a link to it.

So the current "Hope and Change" or Moving Ontario Forward B/S is predicted on providing political payout to the supporters of the ruling class, rather than supporting alternatives to the current system that could break the logjam and provide real opportunities to people. Tim Hudak, whatever his other faults, at least recognizes the problem and has proposed a solution. The American election is probably not going to turn on fundimental changes to the education and training system(s), which is a pity, since the long term solution lies there.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
The "class divide" is exacerbated when race is considered, as it must be. Some groups are stuck in a trap that involves lack of opportunity, too much dependency, crime, broken families and despair; other groups manage, usually in one generation, to lift themselves our of that same trap and into the middle class. The "class divide" is, I think, at least in part a "culture divide." But race, while involved in some cultures, doesn't explain everything or, even, a lot of things - otherwise we wouldn't have the expression "white trash."
Sooner or later, we have to admit that there is a large number of people, of all races and societies, that just don't want to work for a living.

They are self entitled, whether by choice or being brought up that way. As this type of generation passes it's 'values' to next, again and again, it becomes harder to break the cycle.

While many people never have the opportunity, millions of others, in the US & Canada do. They just won't though because we've made it too easy for them to play the victim and then to assuage our guilt, we allow programs, paid with our taxes to support their lifestyle.

As far as I'm concerned, this is a large portion of 'the gap'. Instead of perpetuating it and taking more from those that have it and giving it to those that don't appreciate it, tough love programs need to become entrenched.

Workfare, paid apprenticeship programs to address our lack of skilled trade population, with job placement, etc. Once you graduate it should be made extremely hard to be able to slide back to the welfare system.

People have to be made to give up the sense of entitlement, but we have to replace it with a sense of pride, moral worth and human value.

We have to take care of our old, unhealthy and truly, TRULY disadvantaged.

It's not the rich, not the employed, and not those that would jump at the chance to climb out of the gutter. They are not the problem.

We don't have to take care of our lazy, self entitled good for nothing dregs of society. They are the ones that are truly creating the gap, them and the politicians with their never ending programs and social engineering agendas.

That's just my take on things though.




edit for grammar
 
Recce, they are positive proof that incentives work. Something like 47% of Americans pay no income tax at all, and they like it that way so long as pandering politicians are there to say "You don't have to pay taxes, the eeeeevil rich and corporations will pay them for you" (or simply ignore where the wealth is actually coming from and tell them it's all free). Do you imagine they will vote for someone who tells them its time to get off their ass and work?

The other entitled sector you didn't mention is government workers, who have a great gravy train going. They get above market wages and benefits, and recycle some of the cash back to keep their their patron party in power. Look at the last Ontario election, the latest scare headlines about laying off 60,000 Canadian public sector workers or the shenanigans in Wisconsin. You know they are fighting to the last taxpayer to keep their perques.

I think Prime Minister Harper has figured out how to do changes in such a fashion they don't raise enough hackles or opposition to derail his plans. Future Republican State Houses, Governors, Congressmen, Senators and Presidents may well be coming to learn his approach.
 
Thucydides said:
Recce, they are positive proof that incentives work. Something like 47% of Americans pay no income tax at all, and they like it that way so long as pandering politicians are there to say "You don't have to pay taxes, the eeeeevil rich and corporations will pay them for you" (or simply ignore where the wealth is actually coming from and tell them it's all free). Do you imagine they will vote for someone who tells them its time to get off their ass and work?

The other entitled sector you didn't mention is government workers, who have a great gravy train going. They get above market wages and benefits, and recycle some of the cash back to keep their their patron party in power. Look at the last Ontario election, the latest scare headlines about laying off 60,000 Canadian public sector workers or the shenanigans in Wisconsin. You know they are fighting to the last taxpayer to keep their perques.

I think Prime Minister Harper has figured out how to do changes in such a fashion they don't raise enough hackles or opposition to derail his plans. Future Republican State Houses, Governors, Congressmen, Senators and Presidents may well be coming to learn his approach.

I am a government worker. Both Federal and Provincial. I have always voted the same way, job be damned. I did not vote for McGuinty. When I do my job, it is to protect the safety of the worker, not to pander to a government agenda. I do the same job as many private sector companies do.

-Except-

I also carry the extra responsibility of a badge. I carry a warrant. I prepare and participate in court cases. I am a target of unscupulous employers and workers that I fine. The only protection I carry is a cell phone. That added responsibility is worth something. Whether you care for government workers or not. I pay Union dues because I have to, not because I want to.

By the way there T, how's that government job of yours? Any Class B lately? Or just 2 1/2 - 3 days a week on course admin? Being Crse WO is definitely strenuous, isn't it, especially at the pay you get ;)
 
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